Obama vs McCain: Around the bend

Big gains over the last two days by Obama, by my tracking, Obama now leads by 6.2 percent, a 49.2 - 43 margin; and I have him slated to win anywhere from 50.5 - 52.6 percent of the vote, with a 2 - 4.2 percent margin over McCain, at the moment.

McCain is letting it all hang out now:

This appears still aimed at McCain supporters, and I've not seen any polling that the Ayers-ACORN attack on Obama is perceived as relevancy to voters that are up for grabs. But it looks like that McCain is going the length with the attack.

The corp. media is saying that Obama is going 'safe' mode:

Leading in polls with 25 days to the election, Democrat Barack Obama is playing it safe, offering careful proposals to address the economic crisis while letting allies respond to John McCain's sharpest charges. The Democratic presidential nominee, famous for his unscripted oratory, now reads his speeches from TelePrompTers, reducing the chance of gaffes. He has not held a news conference in two weeks, although he has done several one-on-one interviews with national and local reporters. He now refers to Republican John McCain as "my opponent" more often than by name. And he offers carefully limited, comparatively non-controversial remedies for the nation's financial crisis.
This is not over yet. A 6% lead with less than a month to go is fabulous, but not insurmountable. Balz:
There is a scene early in "Dead Certain," Robert Draper's book about President Bush, when the Bush campaign, reeling from its loss to John McCain in New Hampshire in the 2000 primary, is plotting its moves for a do-or-die struggle in South Carolina. As Bush's South Carolina team sketched out one tough step after another, Mark McKinnon, Bush's media adviser, listened with amazement. Draper writes that McKinnon was thinking: "They're letting the dogs off the chain." John McCain was the victim in that campaign eight years ago. Now, struggling to overcome Barack Obama's lead in the polls, he is unleashing attacks and empowering forces that lead him in the same direction.
Still, at the state level, and where it counts with the EV's, Obama is putting it away, and maybe out of reach.

Tags: 2008 (all tags)



My notes for tonight

1. PA, VA and FL are almost disturbingly stable. I'm so not use to seeing anything lie that.

  1. NC and OH look like they are slipping away from McCain.
  2. MI is abandoning the Republican brand.
  3. Indiana is looking better for McCain.
  4. Norm Coleman declined to appear with McCain in MN.
  5. Is Palin making her own schedule? She's going to some erratic places (CA, NE, WV).
  6. I read on the Politico that McCain's organization in NV is a joke.
  7. Is GA really moving into play?
  8. Why have w heard nothhing about CO recently?
  9. Shouldn't Obama be making a move for MO?

by RandyMI 2008-10-10 07:30PM | 0 recs
Re: My notes for tonight

Yeah, on #9... it's like both campaigns seem to have forgotten about that state...

by LordMike 2008-10-10 07:50PM | 0 recs
Re: My notes for tonight

I heard that Obama was sending Paul Tewes into Florida.  Winning NC would be a nice feather in our cap, but Florida is a first-round knockout.

by Jess81 2008-10-10 09:07PM | 0 recs
They're in MO

Joe Biden spent 2 days all over the state, in some of the more conservative areas, this past week.  Michelle Obama was in Kansas City, I want to say on Monday, I got an email but couldn't attend.

by milton333 2008-10-11 08:45AM | 0 recs
on #6

I doubt Palin is making her own schedule. They are sending her to red states that they think may need shoring up. But she is definitely onto her own agenda. She is pulling a Lieberman - tossing her hat in the ring for next election.

by itsthemedia 2008-10-10 09:40PM | 0 recs
Re: on #6

I think she's going to get so chewed up and spat out by whoever runs in four years time on the republican side that it's going be laughable.

by Quinton 2008-10-11 02:24AM | 0 recs
Re: on #6

That's exactly what happened to Joementum.

by itsthemedia 2008-10-11 10:22AM | 0 recs
I guess it's possible to get

330+ electoral college votes if Obama were to win by 2-4% as you currently have the race (a lot of close wins).  As ARG indicated, Obama is being pretty efficient with his popular vote margin, even if it's a lot slimmer than you would expect for a 330+ electoral college vote margin.

by Blazers Edge 2008-10-10 07:48PM | 0 recs
Re: I guess it's possible to get

Yea, sure, there are plenty of historical examples of that happening.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-10-10 07:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama vs McCain: Around the bend

the story about this week is this:

this is the week the republicans realized they could lose this thing and even though everyone knew they most probably would they can't believe it.. they had not accepted the probability that they might lose.... and now they are angry, frustrated and confused..

by obama4presidente 2008-10-10 07:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama vs McCain: Around the bend

Its that they perceived they 'could' win it as well, a few weeks ago.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-10-10 07:55PM | 0 recs
Still one more debate

There's still the third debate.  I still think it's too early for Obama to try and run out the clock.  Is Obama going to step back from what he's done in the first two debates?  The third debate could give McCain a real opening.  It may mot be enough, but a debate win could close the gap going into the final stretch.

And that ACORN ad may be McCain's last negative bullet.  Scary font, linking ACORN (and Obama) to
the mortgage crisis, the leather jacket, etc...

It's got more bark than bite, but you never know.
I'm predicting a 50-48 Obama win, with a 286-252 EV win.  

by esconded 2008-10-10 08:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Still one more debate

What is that, Kerry states plus CO, NM, IA, and VI?

by Jess81 2008-10-10 09:08PM | 0 recs
You mean VA?

Virgin Islands don't have electoral college votes unfortunately.

I guess esconded is worried that McCain's plan to purchase homes is going to help him in the last debate; he's lying that it's the same as Hillary's proposal but McCain is hoping people don't get the distinction between the government buying mortgages at a discount and buying them at face value.

by Blazers Edge 2008-10-10 09:19PM | 0 recs
Re: You mean VA?

They've done such a botched job of rolling out their "plan" that it isn't going to get much play.  It's a big old convoluted mess that even the GOP base appears to be rejecting.  If Obama comes up with a coherent equivalent, or blatantly lifts Clinton's and gives attribution, game over.  If Obama doesn't, still not a game changer.

by tlhwraith 2008-10-10 10:06PM | 0 recs


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