Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

Per MSNBC, the Democratic Party is estimating 212,000 caucus-goers on their side. Yes, 212,000, or just about 70 percent more than the turnout from 2004. Wow.

Update [2008-1-3 22:19:31 by Jonathan Singer]: Perhaps the numbers are even higher, 218,000, or nearly 75 percent higher than 2004. Stunning.

Update [2008-1-3 22:35:42 by Jonathan Singer]: From Ambinder: More than 221,000 Dems turn out... About 90,000 GOPers...." Up 76.8 percent from '04, 145.6 percent higher than the Republicans' turnout.

Tags: Iowa Caucuses, turnout (all tags)

Comments

36 Comments

Re: Turnout Well Over 200,000

That's the most important figure. Iowa is in play for November for Edwards, Clinton, or Obama.

by Kal 2008-01-03 05:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Turnout Well Over 200,000

In my opinion, Iowa is not "in play."  Any Democrat will win Iowa in 2008.

by Andy Katz 2008-01-03 05:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Turnout Well Over 200,000

One word...INCREDIBLE.

by mattmfm 2008-01-03 05:09PM | 0 recs
If that happened in a CAUCUS, then in a primary

it will be even more because it's easier.

Obama did it.  And this makes it likely he wins and it bodes well for a President of the United States Barack Obama.

by jgarcia 2008-01-03 05:09PM | 0 recs
The Big Question
Now that Obama is the frontrunner, we can expect the attack dogs to hit him (mostly from the Clinton camp or their surrogates). Can he survive the barrage? He's never faced truly tough attacks before in the national spotlight. If he can survive the attacks, he wins the nomination. If not, Hillary's waiting to snatch it from him.
by Luigi Montanez 2008-01-03 05:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Turnout Well Over 200,000

Okay that's fucking impressive. My hat off to Obama. I guess I am just jaded.

by bruh21 2008-01-03 05:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Turnout Well Over 200,000

Thank you.

by crackityjones 2008-01-03 05:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Turnout Well Over 200,000

Thank you!!

by Jr1886 2008-01-03 05:42PM | 0 recs
I give a lot of credit to Obama

We had first-timers in our Edwards group, and so did Hillary, but there's no question that the Obama group had the most first-time caucus-goers.

Turnout in my precinct went from 175 in 2004 to 293 tonight. That was way more than I ever imagined possible.

After the second division into preference groups, Edwards had 115, Obama had 103, and Clinton had 72, but unfortunately, the math worked out to 2 delegates for each candidate.

by desmoinesdem 2008-01-03 05:12PM | 0 recs
Re: I give a lot of credit to Obama

If HE can get these new and younger voters to be energized and vote in November, then it bodes well for us to win the WH with him as our nominee.

by jgarcia 2008-01-03 05:16PM | 0 recs
Re: I give a lot of credit to Obama

You're a star. Getting the most eligible attendees for Edwards on a night when he didn't win statewide is a great achievement.

by desmoulins 2008-01-03 05:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

WOW. DMR UNDERESTIMATED turnout.

by animated 2008-01-03 05:13PM | 0 recs
Are you kidding me???

Over 200,000?!?!?!

by optimusprime 2008-01-03 05:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

Now that's good news for all Democrats.

by Steve M 2008-01-03 05:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

Amen to that.  Good news for down ticket races as well...

by HSTruman 2008-01-03 05:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

Who said the Register was nuts?

by crackityjones 2008-01-03 05:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

The ones who were rooting for Edwards. (Go figure.)

by Nautilator 2008-01-03 05:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

I know no one believe the DMR poll. Now, Ann Selzer is a genius.

by Jr1886 2008-01-03 05:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

Seems like the DMR was way, way off in terms of the number of Republicans and Independents who would show up.  76% of entrance poll respondents were Democrats, although Clinton and Obama were basically tied among that group.

by Steve M 2008-01-03 05:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

Well they probably simply underestimated the number of DEMOCRATS and not the number of independents per se.

by crackityjones 2008-01-03 05:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

Either way, if they were off on the composition of the electorate, off on the margin among Democrats, and off on the margin among Independents, I see no reason to congratulate them just because all these errors happened to cancel out and leave them in the right ballpark on the final numbers.  That's just a shot in the dark.

by Steve M 2008-01-03 05:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

That's no small chance !! They were right and we don't have all the numbers yet to judge you claim on the merits. As of right now, DMR and Zogby poll were dead accurate

by Jr1886 2008-01-03 06:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

Well didn't they say Obama would win by 7?

They are closest poll to the actual results but you see no reason to congratulate them? They had the general direction correct: HUGE TURNOUT and Obama by 7!

Look I'm having a good time so I am going to take some time from arguing. You don't see a reason to congratulate them? Good for you!

by crackityjones 2008-01-03 06:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

I'm surprised you are unable to understand my comment.

by Steve M 2008-01-03 08:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

ditto

by crackityjones 2008-01-04 04:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

So should we trust the trash polling firm ARG ? I predicted before any votes were casted they will be out of business soon

by Jr1886 2008-01-03 06:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

I'm happy, but not gloating.  I'm hoping some people can at least acknowledge the "transcendent" possibilities some of us see in Obama.  You don't have to agree, but I'd really like to see less of the patronizing "obamafans" stuff, as if we are just star-struck teenagers.

Obama did something pretty amazing tonight, something repeatedly dismissed as "naive."  He can bring new people to the party.  He can stir young people into action, not just talk.  He can transform America into a truly progressive nation.

All without raising his voice.

by NC State Dem 2008-01-03 05:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

I was hoping for an Edwards win (because I like his populist/anti-corporate message ... IWR vote still pisses me off, though), but, DAMN! I've gotta hand it to Obama for inspiring people. I was in (happy) tears listening to his speech, and my heart soared for the possibilities still left in this country. And that counts for a lot!

by Oregonian 2008-01-04 08:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

How does GOP turnout compare with (say) 2000, their last contested caucus?

by OrangeFur 2008-01-03 05:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

Dems will turn Iowa blue in 2008 then.  That's excellent new.

by BDB 2008-01-03 05:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

Will this high-turnout translate to other primaries? I doubt it. There's a lot of hype about what message the Iowa caucus sends for the rest of the national primaries. It's a stimulus that other primaries won't have working for them. And the turnout may not turn into a national trend. Excuse my cynicism but I'm just not convinced that Iowa turnout is a bell-weather, and indeed historically it hasn't been.

by jeffbinnc 2008-01-03 05:23PM | 0 recs
Independent/republican sare

Important thing to note for those complaining(or glad about) influence of indies/republicans winning it for Obama in iowa.
Republican (3%)/Independent (20%) in CNN ENTRANCE POLL and it shows Obama one point higher then Clinton among democrats, so don't over-exaggerate the amount and don't forget a number are left leaning independents. This goes for both trying to spin the high Indies positively and negatively.

An Obama supporter

by rtaycher1987 2008-01-03 05:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Independent/republican share

by rtaycher1987 2008-01-03 05:37PM | 0 recs
Independent/republican share

by rtaycher1987 2008-01-03 05:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

In my parents home district in NE Iowa number in 2000 were around 5 people, about 40 in 2004 and this year a group of almost 250. Change is on the wind.

by lost78 2008-01-03 07:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Democratic Turnout Well Over 200,000

HILLARY SHOULD QUIT THE RACE NOW!!!!

Voters just rejected her. She now puts her personal ambitions above the unity of the democratic party.

HILLARY OUT!

by win 2008-01-03 09:20PM | 0 recs

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