CNN Poll: GOP Looking Really Weak
by Jonathan Singer, Sun Jan 13, 2008 at 12:12:20 PM EST
Opinion Research Corporation (.pdf) was in the field nationally Wednesday and Thursday for CNN and found some rather interesting numbers that are worth passing along.
Looking at the favorability ratings for the two parties nationally, the Democratic Party is looking remarkably strong. In fact, the Democrats have not had such a high net favorable rating in CNN/ORC polling dating back nearly a year and a half, with 55 percent of Americans viewing the party positively and just 34 percent viewing it favorably. While the party's favorable number did hit 56 percent in September 2006, never before has the spread been so favorable for the party -- even immediately before the 2006 midterms in which Democrats were swept into power on Capitol Hill.
Contrast these numbers with the mediocre, at best, numbers for the GOP. Currently just 41 percent of Americans view the Republican Party favorably, up from 36 percent in June 2007 but actually down from 44 percent in September 2006. A total of 48 percent of Americans view the GOP unfavorably, a significantly higher negative rating than that registered by the Democrats.
Going beyond that, when voters were asked what candidates they would definitely NOT vote for, three of the leading Republican candidates -- Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani -- already registered opposition from a majority of Americans. Specifically, 52 percent of respondents indicated they would definitely not vote for Huckabee, while 55 percent said the same of Giuliani and 62 percent said the same of Romney. While just 43 percent said that they would not consider supporting John McCain in November, no Democrat faced a higher level of opposition. What's more, McCain's hard support was less that than for either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, indicating less excitement about his candidacy than for the candidacies of the leading Democratic candidates.
Finally, I've posted head-to-head matchups pitting Democrats Obama and Clinton against Republicans Giuliani, Romney, McCain, and Huckabee down in the extended entry. In each permutation save for those including McCain, both Democrats lead all Republicans by double-digit margins. For McCain, both Democrats lead, though well within the poll's margin of error.
In all, these numbers don't speak well of the vitality of the GOP.
Polled Matchups (Trend from Dec.)
Obama 56 (52)
Giuliani 40 (45)
Obama 59 (54)
Romney 37 (41)
Obama 49 (48)
McCain 48 (48)
Obama 58 (55)
Huckabee 39 (40)
Clinton 55 (51)
Giuliani 42 (45)
Clinton 58 (54)
Romney 40 (43)
Clinton 50 (48)
McCain 48 (50)
Clinton 56 (54)
Huckabee 42 (44)