TX-Sen: Cornyn's Re-Elect At 40%

Kos posted a poll he commissioned Research 2000 to conduct on the Texas Senate race:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/24-26. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you to reelect John Cornyn, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Cornyn?

Reelect 40
Consider 15
Replace 35

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Rick Noriega, the Democrat, and John Cornyn, the Republican?

Cornyn (R) 51
Noriega (D) 35

For point of comparison, Cornyn won election in 2002 55%-43%. At this point in time, 35% is Noriega's baseline of support and he has plenty of room to grow as just 60% of Democrats said they support him (23% undecided.) Also, Cornyn's support is soft among Republicans. The 51% he gets in the head to head includes 81% of Republicans, but only 63% of Republicans said they want him to be re-elected. That's a big chunk of Republicans who are movable.

Tags: John Cornyn, Rick Noriega, TX-Sen (all tags)

Comments

15 Comments

Re: TX-Sen: Cornyn's Re-Elect At 40%

There isn't an open forum or whatever, so I'll post it here.  

Official estimate is 24,000 fired up New Yorkers for Obama in Washington Square Park tonight. Stay tuned for more photos and video.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community /post_group/ObamaHQ/Ch43

That's what happens when Obama has a free event.  

by JeremiahTheMessiah 2007-09-27 04:40PM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: Cornyn's Re-Elect At 40%

Cornyn can definitely be defeated.

However, it would have to be the right democratic candidate for statewide office.

Latinos are the future of Texas & the future of the Texas Democratic Party.

But right now,it would still be very difficult for a Latino to win Statewide office in Texas.

by labanman 2007-09-27 05:04PM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: Cornyn's Re-Elect At 40%

Latinos have already won statewide office in Texas. Tony Garza, the present ambassador to Mexico, was the the first statewide elected Hispanic in Texas. He was elected to a spot on the Texas Railroad Commission.

by vpltz 2007-09-27 07:21PM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: Cornyn's Re-Elect At 40%

As a red stater from the southwest myself, I can absolutely tell Mr. Noriega -forget about running! The poll numbers prove Texans will dump hard liner Cornyn for just about anyone else -but not a Mexican, not someone with a foreign sounding name.

Mr. Noriega should not attempt this right now, and should keep his powder clean and dry for next cycle.  After the Immigration Bill is over and done with, and Mr. Terror Head is out of office.

As blatantly racist as it is, we're talking about Texas, a border state, the same Texas that wants a  a f$#@ing wall, to keep anyone not white, out.
Who cares what nationality Noriega is -it 'ain't American' and sound like a Mexican'.

I say words I heard from District 1 in Arizona, where another 'foreigner', Democrat George Cordova, tried to win against white boy, Rick Renzi.
Even our Universities got away with writing humiliating articles titled "The Virginian vs. The Little Mexican", during the campaign.  Cordova did well, but Republicans didn't support him.

The most ironic thing though, was that Renzi didn't live here legally. So he, was the actual foreigner.

In any case, Mr. Cordova hasn't been seen since.

by hazmaq 2007-09-27 05:14PM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: Cornyn's Re-Elect At 40%

Texas is now a majority minority state, so you will have to do a bit better than "Texans won't vote for no Mexicans".

Voters turn out when they believe their vote actually matters.  

So a candidate who can define a strong contrast will bring them out. A soldier who's served on the front lines, a skilled legislator who's crafted legislation with bipartisan support, and one who has a name, like many other Texans, inherited from those where were part of Texas before there WAS a Texas-that's a winning contrast.

A candidate who's a moderately more sane version of a batshit crazy incumbent is not nearly as exciting.

by boadicea 2007-09-27 07:26PM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: Cornyn's Re-Elect At 40%

hazmaq noted:

As a red stater from the southwest myself, I can absolutely tell Mr. Noriega -forget about running! The poll numbers prove Texans will dump hard liner Cornyn for just about anyone else -but not a Mexican, not someone with a foreign sounding name.

This is just racist and wrong. You don't give Texans enough credit and evidently don't realize that Texas has a very, very, very large Latino population. As for a "foreign sounding name," take a look at a list of members of the Texas House. A lot of those folks are Latino and even some of the Anglos have "foreign sounding names." Heck, the Lieutenant Governor, David Dewhurst, has a "foreign sounding name" if you want to be technical about it. What you claim just makes no sense.

You also noted:

Mr. Noriega should not attempt this right now, and should keep his powder clean and dry for next cycle.  After the Immigration Bill is over and done with, and Mr. Terror Head is out of office.

Believe it or not, immigration isn't the biggest issue on the minds of Texans right now. And, as for Noriega not attempting this right now, it is a good thing he IS attempting this. His primary opponent has so many negatives there is no way he could defeat Cornyn.

You also noted:

As blatantly racist as it is, we're talking about Texas, a border state, the same Texas that wants a  a f$#@ing wall, to keep anyone not white, out.

Again, you are just totally wrong. Even the Republican governor of Texas has realized that a wall isn't a good idea because it would destroy Texas' economy and just doesn't make good sense. Immigration will not be the central issue in the U.S. Senate race in Texas.

by vpltz 2007-09-27 07:28PM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: Cornyn's Re-Elect At 40%

Aside from just the numbers, I just feel that Conryn is one of those candidates where if an actual race happens and becomes engaged, his numbers could really drop. He has been nothing but a complete Bush rubber stamp, and some of his hard-line conservative votes wont go over well even in Texas. Also, Henry Bonilla can tell you how perilous taking a hard conservative stance on immigration in that area can be. I'm actually encouraged by these numbers... but it still all comes down to money. Texas is a ridiculously expensive state to campaign in, and Conryn has been saving up a warchest the minute he got elected. If Noriega can raise substantial money, he will- at least- keep Conryn under 55%.

by AC4508 2007-09-27 08:20PM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: Cornyn's Re-Elect At 40%

Thanks for posting this.  Republicans are increasingly vulnerable everywhere, and a Noriega win just might be #60!  As it is, we're up to seven prime pickup opportunities:

Colorado
Maine
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Hampshire
Oregon
Virginia

I list these first because they are either open seats or states carried by John Kerry in 2004.  These seats would get us to 57 + Lieberman.  Depending on one's point of view, that means we need 2 or 3 more seats to crush the other side's clotute vote option.  With Repub incumbents in trouble from Alaska to North Carolina, it remains to be seen where the most viable remaining pickups might be.  Keep us posted!

by CLLGADEM 2007-09-28 12:22AM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: Cornyn's Re-Elect At 40%

Here's a funny little factoid about Cornyn's website: there's a prominent button with which you can translate the text therein into Spanish.  It's thoughtful, in case Spanish-speakers want to read about how much Cornyn hates them.

by Junior Bug 2007-09-28 12:36AM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: Cornyn's Re-Elect At 40%

Democratic Senate Seats.
AR- 60-40 race favoring Pryor(D)
DE- 65-35 race favoring Biden(D)
IL- 65-35 race favoring Durbin(D)
IA- 60-40 race favoring Harkin(D)
LA- 55-45 race favoring Landrieu(D)
MA- 70-30 race favoring Kerry(D)
MI- 65-35 race favoring Levin(D)
MT- 60-40 race favoring Baucus(D)
NJ- 60-40 race favoring Lautenberg(D)
RI- 75-25 race favoring Reed(D)
SD- 60-40 race favoring Johnson(D)
WV- 70-30 race favoring Rockefeller(D)

Republican Senate Seats.
AL- 60-40 race favoring Sessions(R)
AK- 55-45 race favoring Stevens(R)
CO- 55-45 race favoring Udall(D)+1D
GA- 55-45 race favoring Chambliss(R)
ID- 60-40 race favoring Risch(R)
KS- 65-35 race favoring Roberts(R)
KY- 55-45 race favoring McConnell(R)
ME- 50-50 race favoring Allen(D)
MN- 50-50 race favoring Franken(D)
MS- 70-30 race favoring Cochran(R)
NE- 55-45 race favoring Johanns(R)
NH- 55-45 race favoring Shaheen(D)+2D
NM- 55-45 race favoring Domenici(R)
NC- 55-45 race favoring Dole(R)
OK- 55-45 race favoring Inhofe(R)
OR- 50-50 race favoring Merkley(D)
SC- 60-40 race favoring Graham(R)
TN- 55-45 race favoring Alexander(R)
TX- 55-45 race favoring Cornyn(R)
VA- 60-40 race favoring Warner(D)+3D
WY- 75-25 race favoring Enzi(R)
WY- 60-40 race favoring Barrasso(R)

by nkpolitics 2007-09-28 08:41AM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: Cornyn's Re-Elect At 40%
Democratic Senate Seats. AR- 60-40 race favoring Pryor(D) DE- 65-35 race favoring Biden(D) IL- 65-35 race favoring Durbin(D) IA- 60-40 race favoring Harkin(D) LA- 55-45 race favoring Landrieu(D) MA- 70-30 race favoring Kerry(D) MI- 65-35 race favoring Levin(D) MT- 60-40 race favoring Baucus(D) NJ- 60-40 race favoring Lautenberg(D) RI- 75-25 race favoring Reed(D) SD- 60-40 race favoring Johnson(D) WV- 70-30 race favoring Rockefeller(D) Republican Senate Seats. AL- 60-40 race favoring Sessions(R) AK- 55-45 race favoring Stevens(R) CO- 55-45 race favoring Udall(D)+1D GA- 55-45 race favoring Chambliss(R) ID- 60-40 race favoring Risch(R) KS- 65-35 race favoring Roberts(R) KY- 55-45 race favoring McConnell(R) ME- 50-50 race favoring Allen(D) MN- 50-50 race favoring Franken(D) MS- 70-30 race favoring Cochran(R) NE- 55-45 race favoring Johanns(R) NH- 55-45 race favoring Shaheen(D)+2D NM- 55-45 race favoring Domenici(R) NC- 55-45 race favoring Dole(R) OK- 55-45 race favoring Inhofe(R) OR- 50-50 race favoring Merkley(D) SC- 60-40 race favoring Graham(R) TN- 55-45 race favoring Alexander(R) TX- 55-45 race favoring Cornyn(R) VA- 60-40 race favoring Warner(D)+3D WY- 75-25 race favoring Enzi(R) WY- 60-40 race favoring Barrasso(R)
by nkpolitics 2007-09-28 08:42AM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: Cornyn's Re-Elect At 40%
Democratic Senate Seats. AR- 60-40 race favoring Pryor(D) DE- 65-35 race favoring Biden(D) IL- 65-35 race favoring Durbin(D) IA- 60-40 race favoring Harkin(D) LA- 55-45 race favoring Landrieu(D) MA- 70-30 race favoring Kerry(D) MI- 65-35 race favoring Levin(D) MT- 60-40 race favoring Baucus(D) NJ- 60-40 race favoring Lautenberg(D) RI- 75-25 race favoring Reed(D) SD- 60-40 race favoring Johnson(D) WV- 70-30 race favoring Rockefeller(D) Republican Senate Seats. AL- 60-40 race favoring Sessions(R) AK- 55-45 race favoring Stevens(R) CO- 55-45 race favoring Udall(D)+1D GA- 55-45 race favoring Chambliss(R) ID- 60-40 race favoring Risch(R) KS- 65-35 race favoring Roberts(R) KY- 55-45 race favoring McConnell(R) ME- 50-50 race favoring Allen(D) MN- 50-50 race favoring Franken(D) MS- 70-30 race favoring Cochran(R) NE- 55-45 race favoring Johanns(R) NH- 55-45 race favoring Shaheen(D)+2D NM- 55-45 race favoring Domenici(R) NC- 55-45 race favoring Dole(R) OK- 55-45 race favoring Inhofe(R) OR- 50-50 race favoring Merkley(D) SC- 60-40 race favoring Graham(R) TN- 55-45 race favoring Alexander(R) TX- 55-45 race favoring Cornyn(R) VA- 60-40 race favoring Warner(D)+3D WY- 75-25 race favoring Enzi(R) WY- 60-40 race favoring Barrasso(R)
by nkpolitics 2007-09-28 08:42AM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: Cornyn's Re-Elect At 40%
Democratic Senate Seats. AR- 60-40 race favoring Pryor(D) DE- 65-35 race favoring Biden(D) IL- 65-35 race favoring Durbin(D) IA- 60-40 race favoring Harkin(D) LA- 55-45 race favoring Landrieu(D) MA- 70-30 race favoring Kerry(D) MI- 65-35 race favoring Levin(D) MT- 60-40 race favoring Baucus(D) NJ- 60-40 race favoring Lautenberg(D) RI- 75-25 race favoring Reed(D) SD- 60-40 race favoring Johnson(D) WV- 70-30 race favoring Rockefeller(D) Republican Senate Seats. AL- 60-40 race favoring Sessions(R) AK- 55-45 race favoring Stevens(R) CO- 55-45 race favoring Udall(D)+1D GA- 55-45 race favoring Chambliss(R) ID- 60-40 race favoring Risch(R) KS- 65-35 race favoring Roberts(R) KY- 55-45 race favoring McConnell(R) ME- 50-50 race favoring Allen(D) MN- 50-50 race favoring Franken(D) MS- 70-30 race favoring Cochran(R) NE- 55-45 race favoring Johanns(R) NH- 55-45 race favoring Shaheen(D)+2D NM- 55-45 race favoring Domenici(R) NC- 55-45 race favoring Dole(R) OK- 55-45 race favoring Inhofe(R) OR- 50-50 race favoring Merkley(D) SC- 60-40 race favoring Graham(R) TN- 55-45 race favoring Alexander(R) TX- 55-45 race favoring Cornyn(R) VA- 60-40 race favoring Warner(D)+3D WY- 75-25 race favoring Enzi(R) WY- 60-40 race favoring Barrasso(R)
by nkpolitics 2007-09-28 08:42AM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: Cornyn's Re-Elect At 40%

Democratic Senate Seats.
AR- 60-40 race favoring Pryor(D)
DE- 65-35 race favoring Biden(D)
IL- 65-35 race favoring Durbin(D)
IA- 60-40 race favoring Harkin(D)
LA- 55-45 race favoring Landrieu(D)
MA- 70-30 race favoring Kerry(D)
MI- 65-35 race favoring Levin(D)
MT- 60-40 race favoring Baucus(D)
NJ- 60-40 race favoring Lautenberg(D)
RI- 75-25 race favoring Reed(D)
SD- 60-40 race favoring Johnson(D)
WV- 70-30 race favoring Rockefeller(D)

Republican Senate Seats.
AL- 60-40 race favoring Sessions(R)
AK- 55-45 race favoring Stevens(R)
CO- 55-45 race favoring Udall(D)+1D
GA- 55-45 race favoring Chambliss(R)
ID- 60-40 race favoring Risch(R)
KS- 65-35 race favoring Roberts(R)
KY- 55-45 race favoring McConnell(R)
ME- 50-50 race favoring Allen(D)
MN- 50-50 race favoring Franken(D)
MS- 70-30 race favoring Cochran(R)
NE- 55-45 race favoring Johanns(R)
NH- 55-45 race favoring Shaheen(D)+2D
NM- 55-45 race favoring Domenici(R)
NC- 55-45 race favoring Dole(R)
OK- 55-45 race favoring Inhofe(R)
OR- 50-50 race favoring Merkley(D)
SC- 60-40 race favoring Graham(R)
TN- 55-45 race favoring Alexander(R)
TX- 55-45 race favoring Cornyn(R)
VA- 60-40 race favoring Warner(D)+3D
WY- 75-25 race favoring Enzi(R)
WY- 60-40 race favoring Barrasso(R)

by nkpolitics 2007-09-28 08:42AM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: Cornyn's Re-Elect At 40%

Democratic Senate Seats.
AR- 60-40 race favoring Pryor(D)
DE- 65-35 race favoring Biden(D)
IL- 65-35 race favoring Durbin(D)
IA- 60-40 race favoring Harkin(D)
LA- 55-45 race favoring Landrieu(D)
MA- 70-30 race favoring Kerry(D)
MI- 65-35 race favoring Levin(D)
MT- 60-40 race favoring Baucus(D)
NJ- 60-40 race favoring Lautenberg(D)
RI- 75-25 race favoring Reed(D)
SD- 60-40 race favoring Johnson(D)
WV- 70-30 race favoring Rockefeller(D)

Republican Senate Seats.
AL- 60-40 race favoring Sessions(R)
AK- 55-45 race favoring Stevens(R)
CO- 55-45 race favoring Udall(D)+1D
GA- 55-45 race favoring Chambliss(R)
ID- 60-40 race favoring Risch(R)
KS- 65-35 race favoring Roberts(R)
KY- 55-45 race favoring McConnell(R)
ME- 50-50 race favoring Allen(D)
MN- 50-50 race favoring Franken(D)
MS- 70-30 race favoring Cochran(R)
NE- 55-45 race favoring Johanns(R)
NH- 55-45 race favoring Shaheen(D)+2D
NM- 55-45 race favoring Domenici(R)
NC- 55-45 race favoring Dole(R)
OK- 55-45 race favoring Inhofe(R)
OR- 50-50 race favoring Merkley(D)
SC- 60-40 race favoring Graham(R)
TN- 55-45 race favoring Alexander(R)
TX- 55-45 race favoring Cornyn(R)
VA- 60-40 race favoring Warner(D)+3D
WY- 75-25 race favoring Enzi(R)
WY- 60-40 race favoring Barrasso(R)

by nkpolitics 2007-09-28 08:42AM | 0 recs

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