Strategic Vision (R): Clinton Leads Narrowly in Tight Iowa Race
by Jonathan Singer, Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 07:54:59 PM EDT
Republican pollster Strategic Vision tonight released its latest numbers out of Iowa and they look a little something like this (along with the Pollster.com average out of the state prior to the release of this survey):
Strategic Vision, 600 Democratic LVs, September 21-23, MoE +/- 4%
Clinton 24 (21) 26.9 Edwards 22 (23) 23.5 Obama 21 (22) 20.2 Richardson 13 (14) 12.6 Biden 4 (5) N/A Dodd 1 (1) N/A Kucinich 1 (1) N/A Undecided 14 (13) N/A
I'd like to take a quick moment to bring up a point that I've been harping on in conversation recently but have yet to discuss here on MyDD. Look at the maybe 20 percent support currently spread across candidates other than Clinton, Edwards and Obama -- what happens to those voters in the caucuses come January if they have to make their second choice decision? This question is key because any candidate not meeting the viability threshold in a particular caucus location (generally 15 percent) sees his or her supporters divvied up among the remaining candidates (i.e. those with at least 15 percent support in that particular location) or "uncommitted" (which actually won the Democratic caucus in 1976, with Jimmy Carter coming in second).
It's probably unrealistic to believe that candidates' levels of support in the state are uniform across the state -- Richardson, for instance, is likely above the 15 percent threshold in at least some locations in Iowa (assuming polling is correct in pegging his overall support in the state at somewhere around 12 to 13 percent). But in those localities in which he is not above 15 percent -- or other candidates, for that matter, including the three perceived frontrunners (whose support in a particular location might not meet the 15 percent threshold) -- where do those supporters go. A number of pollsters ask that second choice question in Iowa, but a great deal do not. Perhaps it's time to begin doing so, though?