VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

More as we have it...

Update [2007-8-31 14:16:0 by Todd Beeton]: You can watch his press conference HERE.

Jim Webb will hold a press conference following Warner's.

Update [2007-8-31 14:33:42 by Jonathan Singer]: Warner declines to make an endorsement, but perhaps suggests that he'd like to see Tom Davis to run, saying that he'd like to see someone with experience, someone like a Congressman, to run. (Perhaps I'm reading too much into that answer, but perhaps not...)

Update [2007-8-31 15:25:41 by Jonathan Singer]: I think Marc Ambinder's reading is right:

Ex-Gov. Mark Warner, a once-upon-a-time presidential candidate, is probably going to run for the Democratic nomination. He is extremely popular; he will be heavily favored to win; his race will draw upon the same grassroots energies that excited the Democratic base in 2006. Having Warner on the ballot will help the Democratic presidential nominee in Virginia.

The problems for the GOP don't end there, however. It's clear that John Warner's retirement represents a disaster for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which simply cannot afford an open seat race in an expensive state that at least some signs indicate is trending blue (even if it is still a slightly red hue of purple).

But it goes beyond that, as well. The National Republican Congressional Committee is already going to be on the defense in Virginia's second congressional district, where Republican Congresswoman Virginia Thelma Drake only scraped by last year with 51 percent of the vote. The likelihood that Congressman Tom Davis of the 11th district, a northern Virginia district that is extremely expensive to advertise in and only leans about a point towards the Republican, will opt to make a run for the Republican senatorial nomination this year, thus leaving his seat open, only makes it that much tougher for the NRCC.

In short, regardless of how much of a headache John Warner has been for the GOP over the years, his retirement could not have come at a worse time for the Republicans, whose chances of retaking the House and the Senate, and potentially even retaining control over the White House, have been diminished as a result of today's announcement.

Update [2007-8-31 16:12:1 by Jonathan Singer]: Tom Davis is apparently intent on running a campaign about nothing.

Tags: John Warner, Retirements, Senate 2008, VA-Sen, Virginia (all tags)

Comments

67 Comments

Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

It's a sad speech... he had a great run.

Let's bring on Mark Warner.

by Vox Populi 2007-08-31 10:13AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

I want warner on the presidential ticket . However I think he would run for the senate and that'll still help whoever is on our ticket for president.

by lori 2007-08-31 10:23AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

He should run for senate. That's far more important than sticking him on VP side of ticket- racking up seats in Senate for expected war of attrition by the GOP after 2008. The reality is I don't think my homestate would care if he was Veep, but would vote for him for Senator.  Also I would hope veep would come from one of the growing Dem enclaves from the west so as to give nod to their influence. In that way it's a win-win.

by bruh21 2007-08-31 10:26AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

you are probably right on that score.

by lori 2007-08-31 10:30AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

He is... There are other people who are just as good and effective that would make a good VP for whomever gets the nomination.  There are NOT that many strong VA Dems who can win in 2008.  If Warner REALLY wanted to be President, he would have run this cycle.  It makes me think he doesn't want to deal with the bullshit and hassle of being President.  That's not a negative towards him, mind you.  Just a decision that any politician with a legit chance has to make.

by yitbos96bb 2007-08-31 10:33AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

Yeah , I think the only way he will be on the v.p ticket is if Clinton is the nominee anyway and thats not a sure thing , I don't think he is on the V.P. shortlist for Edwards/Obama , so yeah it'll be better for him to run for senate to increase our imagine.

Now if only Shaheen In NH agrees to run as well , that is 2 seats in the bag.

by lori 2007-08-31 10:38AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

" margins"

by lori 2007-08-31 10:39AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

With mofo Lieberman still in the Senate, I would like to see a Democrat try to take this seat. Webb's presence probably helps other democrats eyeing this seat.

by Pravin 2007-08-31 10:37AM | 0 recs
GO MARK

Finally I can say "Warner 08".

by danIA 2007-08-31 11:39AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

i thought you're an NYC boy?

by jgarcia 2007-08-31 12:22PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

I live in  NYC now. I didn't grow up or spend the most of my life here.  To give an idea of where I m from- if I remember correctly my hometown voted for Bush by about 65 to 70 percent.

by bruh21 2007-08-31 12:27PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

OY!!!

Where I grew up, the local chairs of BOTH parties had been grand wizards of the KKK back in the heyday of that terrorist organization.  it voted for Buchanan in the 1996 GOP primary!

by jgarcia 2007-08-31 12:34PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

Well I can one up you. Beyond the  occasional KKK stuff, at my first job my boss would call me nigger back in the 80s  (due to scarcity of jobs I put up with it) and his son would call me boy although he was one year older than myself. Oddly enough I do sometimes miss the simplicity of life, but not that part. I was the "first" black guy for a lot of things including being befriended by a woman who was a member of the daughters of the confederacy whose sage advice was that I consider playing basketball rather than going off to college. I suck at basketball. well intentioned by racist as hell

by bruh21 2007-08-31 01:13PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

whoa!

i'm fuckin stunned.  yeah, i got nothin' to top that, not even CLOSE!  Those people largely continue to have those viewpoints today.  and what pisses me off is that many whites, especially for some reason, white gay men, simply refuse to believe that ANYONE can be racist at all.  it's like their heads are in the sand.  and gay men in particular (and I'm married to a lilly white one) can be virulently racist and they never even acknowledge it and even go as far as to poo poo anything they hear that someone else might be racist.

sorry for the rambling soapbox.  i'm off it now.  

again, WOW, at your story.  

by jgarcia 2007-08-31 01:23PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

One of the reasons I am so strongly for trending this country progressive is that I have been on the barrel end of the gun when it comes to what undergirds the conservative movement in this country. I grew up seeing it first hand.

You are right about gay white men. Not to generalize but as much homophobia exists in the gay community, there is just as much either willful ignorance or out right (no pun intended) racists attitudes in the gay community (neither wrong makes a right). I fought with a gay association to try to convince them unsucessfully to denounce the voter disenfranchisement in Ohio in 2004 in solidarity with the black org that I belonged to, but all I got was flack about we don't want to offend some members who bitched that this wasn't our issue (I think they were log cabin types). After  I quit the org, I said if you want fairness, you better learn how to give it. But, this is neither here nor there and irrelevant to where VA is trending. Hopefully with the demographic shift we can all hope it will change for the better in order to minimaze the wingnuts from my hometown

by bruh21 2007-08-31 01:32PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

you and I seem to have a lot in common.  if and when i start a blog, i'd love it if you'd be a contributor.

but back to the issue and hand.  it's been my experience that Log Cabinettes are simply racist white male gays who are greedy and don't wanna pay taxes to those "people on welfare" like the ones they "say" were in New Orleans.

However, it's also been my experience that a lot of ostensibly progressive gay white liberals are racists and don't even know it or are in denial.  Or, perhaps they don't care because they figure they are discriminated against as gays, so shit rolls down hill.

before i get attacked here, it is a small minority that are racists.  however, it is noticeable more so that the straight community because they seem to not even think they CAN be racist because they are gay.

Just to make this on-topic, the area you are from in Virginia is west or east.  i don't know a whole lot about the state other than the high-tech and government-worker area of the north/DC area.

by jgarcia 2007-08-31 01:46PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

i'd prefer not to give to many details as i think i am already (again no pun intended) saying a lot about my personal  history.

one of the reasons i m leary of identity politics is because i have seen the dark side of it. it can be well meaning as just as deadly. i know you now support clinton, but my one big issue is where someone tells me they are supporting because she is  a woman. as i told one friend- tell me its because you agree with her regarding iraq or because of any or you like her style of politics, but to say its because she's a woman, that's just wrong.

yes progressive can be as racists as anyone. "oh you are smart and articulate." "you don't act like a gay man at all." these are all comments i've heard before.  the one time i love is when i told this person i had gotten into law school, and he kept repeating the name of my law school as if it was just an impossibility - like i told him i was jesus christ or something.  he was progressive too. it's just the reality. sadly i've become to comfortable with the reality. thats why also i am quite leary of accepting narratives where peo are trying to id whole groups of people as x or y or z.

finally as for log cabin- not all are- but many yes. dated quite a few in my younger ignorant days. the last one was back in the late 90s and having him tell me my political beliefs were because i am black. its interestin dating you get to see the underbelly of these attitudes that peo dont verbalize in more respectable settings.

but again i think we are going far afield fo this diary and this particular blog. if you start one i would be happy to contribute. i already do some writing on gay issues for an entertainment blog so i am comfortable with talking about it.

by bruh21 2007-08-31 02:12PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

ps the particular political belief that the log cabiner was blaming on race? i had come to support universal healthcare after many years of being conservative on the issue.

by bruh21 2007-08-31 02:20PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

that should read "as much homophobia exists in the black community"

by bruh21 2007-08-31 01:33PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

btw, I was born in Portsmouth Naval Hospital in Virginia.  But we moved shortly thereafter.

by jgarcia 2007-08-31 12:35PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

they also as I remember voted for senator macaca by about the same number.

by bruh21 2007-08-31 12:30PM | 0 recs
Wee-haaa

Very good news.  I am grateful to the long service of Mr. Warner, but he aided and abetted the criminals in the WH.

I want Mark Warner to run for this.  It would be a waste for him to run for VP.

by dataguy 2007-08-31 10:24AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

I want Warner on the ticket too, but I think he should run for Senate. The fight for VA became a lot easier for Democrats. With Warner, our chances will look very good.

by RJEvans 2007-08-31 10:26AM | 0 recs
Who for Congress in VA-10?

Swing district in NoVa expected to be vacated by Rep. Tom Davis (R), likely to run for Senate.  Fairfax County Board of Supervisors President Gerald Connelly seems to want to move up but he is unpopular among progressives.  Former Rep. and 2005 LG nominee Leslie Byrne has received mention.  Any other suggestions from Virginians?

by lorax 2007-08-31 10:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Who for Congress in VA-10?

Margie Vanderhye.  She's running for State Senate right now, but after watching the video of her debate with Rip Sullivan from April (link), she'd be an awesome candidate.

If the Republicans nominate Jeannemarie Devolites Davis, which wouldn't surprise me at all, she'll run a "clean" campaign and bring out all of Connelly's dirty laundry.  A progressive, successful woman candidate would be able to tie Davis into the national GOP much better than Connelly.

Here's Margie's website.

by radical centrist 2007-08-31 11:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Who for Congress in VA-10?

Margi would be a great candidate in a few years, but she is currently running for the House of Delegates, not State Senate and she should finish that out before considering running for something else.

If the Republicans want to lose with Jeannemarie two years in a row, let them do it.

by novademocrat 2007-08-31 09:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Who for Congress in VA-10?

Well, Mrs. Davis first has to win reelection to her state senate seat in 2007 against fmr. Lt. Gov. candidate Chap Peterson. It the biggest race in Virginia in 07.

by micha1976 2007-09-01 01:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Who for Congress in VA-10?

It's the 11th District and we already have a crop of candidates lining up - the two you mentioned and some others who I dont really know of.  Look for a blood battle between Byrne and Connelly with the winner of that taking the seat in Nov. 08

by novademocrat 2007-08-31 09:28PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

Although I like Mark Warner as VP, I believe he should run for senate if he wants to stay active in politics.

There's no guarantee that anybody will pick him as VP. One year is life time in politics. We frankly don't know what the central theme will be in 2008 presidential election. It may still be Iraq war, or it may be 'economy stupid' if a recession hits home.

by areyouready 2007-08-31 10:30AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

I Think he'll run in 08 and Virginia will go blue next year in the senate and presidential election.

by lori 2007-08-31 10:34AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

I dont forsee that happening in this decade. Even with demographic shifts, Webb won in an off year election with a fired up Dem base, and demoralized GOP, in a wave year with only 7000 votes. The state is winnable for Senate because of Warner's popularity there.

by bruh21 2007-08-31 10:57AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

I am from Northern VA and I think it will be a tough pull for the democratic Presidential nominee. The only chance would be is if Warner is on the ticket and that is not going to happen.

by BDM 2007-08-31 02:24PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires
He won against an incumbant senator, former Governor and a politician so popular that he was most probable Republican presidential nominee before his defeat.
Obviously he was helped by that Macaca thing, but Webb's success is nevertheless stunning, even if it was a close race.
by micha1976 2007-09-01 01:49AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

You signature line is really quite idiotic... TO say Edwards lost the state is just ridiculously ignorant and stupid... Kerry lost the state, not Edwards.  

by yitbos96bb 2007-08-31 10:35AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

umm, honestly, what else did you expect from this guy?

by KainIIIC 2007-08-31 10:38AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

actually i prefer he keeps it. better to know who he is rather than have him hide it under faux pretense

by bruh21 2007-08-31 10:58AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

This wasn't a comment that needed to be hidden.

by Ernst 2007-08-31 11:18AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

Also doesn't need to run for this seat to stay active in politics. Governor Kaine is term limited and Warner would be a sure bet for that. Warner has also indicated that he probably would likes being governor again more then being a Senator.

It's quite clear that he still has a lot of options and a bright future.

by Ernst 2007-08-31 11:25AM | 0 recs
Congrats to John Warner for his...
30+ years of public service
Longest serving Republican senator in VA
2nd longest serving VA senator (behind Harry F. Byrd, Sr.)
here's to Senior Senator Jim Webb and Junior Senator Mark Warner in 2009 ;)
by mikeporter 2007-08-31 10:39AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

Hope Warner succeeds Warner..and stays for 30 years. That would be 60 years for Virginia under Warner.

by Boilermaker 2007-08-31 10:41AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

Part one of project "Turn Virginia Blue '08" is done.  

Part Two: Announcement speeches.  
Jim Gilmore, Tom Davis, Mark Warner all announce their intentions to run for US Senate in 2008.  

Part Three: One Bloodied victor & One Unscathed victor
Jim and Tom duke it out trying to win the Republican primary while Mark Warner goes through the Democratic primary virtually unscathed and unopposed.  

Part Four: Kick Repub's ass in the general election.  

by JeremiahTheMessiah 2007-08-31 10:48AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

John Warner was my favorite Republican in the Senate.  It seems a shame that we keep losing the only ones with any redeeming qualities.

by Steve M 2007-08-31 10:52AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

John Warner was my favorite Republican in the Senate.  It seems a shame that we keep losing the only ones with any redeeming qualities.

That's what happens when your party pushes hard to the fringe base and drives the more moderate voters away. By playing so hard to the ultra-right evangelical Southern base, the Republican Party has essentially wiped out the Rockefeller Republican wing of the Party. About the only one left is Joe Lieberman.

This is something the left-fringe netroots Naderites need to think about as they attack moderate Democrats in Congress and try to push the party away from the mainstream.

In American politics, the high ground is in the center.

by hwc 2007-08-31 01:18PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

You should be troll rated for your generalities about peo here, bu t sadly you will not be. You can make as many broadly vague swipes at people as much as you want without having any moral authority yourself (a la clinton had to vote for the war to justify her presidential run argument) but the minute someone calls you on your vague definitions of liberal fringe? what does that even mean when you argue shit that its outside of the mainstream by about 70 percent at this point? absolutely nothing more than an attack on those who you want to marginalize

by bruh21 2007-08-31 01:25PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

dude, the push to the Right has allowed the GOP to win elections.  

The Republicans never ever seem to appeal to "swing voters", but they always seem to win elections.
Hmmm....could it mean that voters simply just want you to STAND for something???

by jgarcia 2007-08-31 01:32PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

Oh, give me a break with the anti-netroots rhetoric.  You probably thought Ned Lamont was a far-left extremist.

If you don't think the netroots are a boon to the Democratic Party, then you simply don't get the netroots.

by Steve M 2007-08-31 01:39PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

Why are you and areyouready (both Hillary supporters I note) getting down in the muck with us dirtying fucking hippies in the netroots if you regard the rest of us as 'left-fringe netroots Naderites' extremists?

Interesting to note that the privilege to post on the front-page as a supporter of Hillary on her appointed day was extended to you and that you accepted the offer to be able to post on a place that you malign so.

by Quinton 2007-08-31 02:11PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

If Mark Warner flakes and decides not to run, I'm gonna put 'im in a headlock!  haha

by jgarcia 2007-08-31 11:59AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

Clearly most of us (and Chuck Schumer) want Warner to run, but I would say that there is a very strong chance that Hillary would choose him as her running mate.

Given that, wouldn't it be in his best interest to wait and see if he gets picked for VP, and if he doesn't, run for governor in 09?

by Jon 2007-08-31 12:09PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

Rumor has it, as stated by Novakula, is that the HRC people are really looking at the former pastore and current gov Strickland of Ohio, even though he barely started his term.  That'd put OH in the Dem column.  That's an intriguing idea, don't ya think?

I have no link because it was on his email report that he gave a couple weeks back.

by jgarcia 2007-08-31 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires
No Strickland. He's not very dynamic. I don't believe a VP really helps much in his home state.
John Edwards!
by areyouready 2007-08-31 12:29PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

I agree, but for different reasons.  Strickland cannot be taken out of the gov's mansion only halfway thru his term...it would look too brazenly political.

i know you like shots at Edwards, but NC is DEFINITELY NOT Ohio.  But your implied point of Veep candidates not affecting that much is salient.  The veep pick helping in their own state and geographically is over-rated and pase.

for example, I doubt Kerry would have won Missouri if he had picked that asshole DICK Gephardt in 2004, for instance.

by jgarcia 2007-08-31 12:38PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

I'll change your signature line later when I have the chance. Looks like it bothers lots of people, lol.

I honest didn't expect Edwards to help Kerry win NC, but to my dismay, he could not even close the GAP! 11 points were a huge gap in a presidential election.

He has no credibility talking 'electability'...

by areyouready 2007-08-31 12:59PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

>>>Looks like it bothers lots of people, lol.

I have no idea what you mean.  :(

by jgarcia 2007-08-31 01:03PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

oh, yeah, it looks like people don;t like your sig.  i have to say, that it turns me off, bigtimw.  but i ain't one for censorship or thought police.  but i think it doesn't help your cause any.

by jgarcia 2007-08-31 01:10PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

as I say above- better to know what he thinks than faux pretense that he thinks something different

by bruh21 2007-08-31 01:35PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

No, it's not going to matter who Hillary would like to run for VP with her as she won't get the nomination. I hope Mark Warner gets into the VA senate race as I don't know if there is any other strong candidate (is there?), though Gov. Kaine is term limted out and former Gov. Warner may prefer to be a bit less of the 'former.'

Would like to point out how silly only being able to serve a single consecutive term as Governor is too.

by Quinton 2007-08-31 12:41PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

Sad to see him go. The one that needs to go, Larry Craig, hasn't left yet!

http://OsiSpeaks.com or http://OsiSpeaks.org

by KYJurisDoctor 2007-08-31 12:42PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

It's going to be really disappointing if Warner decides not to run... why does Armbinder think he's going to? Are there any other credible sources who say this is definitely happening? I just don't want to get excited too soon.

by Max Fletcher 2007-08-31 12:45PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

The good news is that this frees up John Warner to be Obama's running mate, if Lieberman turns him down.

by hwc 2007-08-31 01:14PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

I think Mark Warner has made it clear it intends to run for senate and we should probally expect an announcment in a month

by orin76 2007-08-31 01:56PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

Minor quibble

It's "Thelma" Drake, not "Virginia".

by Chicken Lady 2007-08-31 02:06PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

I would be surprised if Thelma Drake got as strong a challenge in 08 as she did in 06. she's a total empty suit, so she'll never win by a large margin, but the bench for Democrats in Virginia Beach is, well, nonexistant. Phil Kellam had the best chance to knock her off, but his campaign was so lousy, he barely ran ahead of Webb in the district.

by johnny longtorso 2007-08-31 03:10PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

Thelma Drake will get a serious challenge in 2008 and if Mark Warner is leading the Dems in Virginia, his coattails will knock her off.

by novademocrat 2007-08-31 09:32PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

Perhaps these coattails can also help Judy Feder against that nut Frank Wolf

by micha1976 2007-09-01 01:54AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

I think Mark Warner would have been on the short list for VP but I don't think he can turn down an opportunity to add another Senate seat to the Democratic column. Today's development will shoot up the stock of some potential VP possibilities such as Wesley Clark and Bill Richardson.

by robliberal 2007-08-31 07:31PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: John Warner Retires

This is the best shot Mark Warner will ever have of being a US Senator. Giving up that chance in the hopes he'll be picked as the vice-presidential nominee is ridiculous. I would hope he's a shrewder politician than that.

by TarHeelStateDem 2007-08-31 09:29PM | 0 recs

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