Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

The results of the Ames Iowa Straw Poll, which Iowa Independent is reporting resulted in a mere 14,000 votes (they were expecting 30,000,) were supposed to have been announced at 7pm Central time but there's been a delay of indeterminate origin. Let the conspiracy theories commence. I like this comment from their liveblog:

Maybe they're trying to figure out how to announce "none of the above" in a positive way.

This event is a fundraiser for the Iowa Republican Party so I take it the low turnout means that their coffers are not exactly overflowing today, for which we can thank Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and John McCain, who bailed out of the event.

The hollowness of the event notwithstanding, the results are interesting to the extent that they impact the field. We could actually see some candidates drop out today. So wait with me, won't you, as the votes are tabulated.

Thoughts on what's causing the delay? Predictions of who's in 2nd-4th? Who drops out today?

Update [2007-8-11 21:12:11 by Todd Beeton]: From NYT Caucus:
Party officials say there is a problem counting ballots. Foul play is not suspected. It is, after all, an event sponsored by Republicans for Republicans. The latest estimate? 8:30 p.m. Iowa time.
And this from Iowa Independent:
The Iowa GOP just confirmed that one voting machine malfunctioned during today's Straw Poll, and some 1,500 ballots must be recounted by hand.
You'll recall that supporters of Ron Paul had petitioned for the voting machines -- made by Diebold -- to be prevented from being used to count the votes in today's straw poll, a request that was denied. When are these guys going to learn that these machines are crap? And why does this discredited company get any business at all?

Update [2007-8-11 21:24:41 by Todd Beeton]:Results:

Mitt Romney       31.6%
Mike Huckabee     18.1%
Sam Brownback     15.3%
Tom Tancredo      13.7%
Ron Paul          9.1%
Tommy Thompson    7.3%        
Fred Thompson     1.4%      
Rudy Giuliani     1.3%  
Duncan Hunter     1.2%
John McCain       0.7%
Jon Cox           0.3%
Update [2007-8-11 21:47:57 by Todd Beeton]: I updated %'s per DesMoines Register

Update [2007-8-11 21:35:0 by Todd Beeton]: Big day for Huckabee. Can't wait to hear how much he spent compared to Romney. 32% is all Romney could draw with all that money and organization? Pretty weak. Solid showing by Ron Paul as well (as compared to expectations.) Hopefully Hunter and T. Thompson will bid farewell after this.

Tags: iowa straw poll (all tags)

Comments

113 Comments

Diebold again

Apparently Diebold strikes again.

by cmpnwtr 2007-08-11 05:02PM | 0 recs
Main reason why that machine should not

be used for any elections, ever again.

by iamready 2007-08-11 05:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Diebold again

They've got no right to take their place with the human race...

(and now I know how Al Gore felt, now I know how Al Gore felt!)

by KainIIIC 2007-08-11 06:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread
1. Romney
2/3. Huckabee too close to call
3/2. Browback too close to call
by areyouready 2007-08-11 05:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Romney will crush the field.

by areyouready 2007-08-11 05:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

He is the scariest Republican of them all.  Would be WORSE than Bush.

by iamready 2007-08-11 05:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Crush as in 50% or 80%?

by Todd Beeton 2007-08-11 05:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

I say 50%, and I say Paul will be a surprise.  I am in a swing district in Illinois and there are Paul signs, all over.

by iamready 2007-08-11 05:14PM | 0 recs
suggestion of 2000 fraud

The Iowa Independent also notes that the 2000 campaign results were probably fradulent, since the vote totals are down so much.

by John DE 2007-08-11 05:14PM | 0 recs
Re: suggestion of 2000 fraud

So, in other words, the poll is BOGUS.

by iamready 2007-08-11 05:15PM | 0 recs
Diebold delivers elections

Republicans like Diebold. Diebold delivers elections. A last minute malfunction... you bet!

by cmpnwtr 2007-08-11 05:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Diebold delivers elections

These machines will not be used in 2008.  Many states have MOVED already to eliminate them, including Florida.

by iamready 2007-08-11 05:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

This was a dull event with the GOP lineup of pigmy candidates. Few people in the crowd applauded for anything other than their own candidates and I can't imagine that they are very happy about waiting for 5-6 hours after the speeches were made while the vote is being counted.

The turnout was 50% of that in 1999 and the money raised was 1/3 of that which had been anticipated. I would say that this was an unmitigated disaster for the Iowa and the national GOP.    

by tiger547 2007-08-11 05:16PM | 0 recs
Democrats should try to make some noise here

I mean, if the Republicans can't even get the machines to work, surely they can get some press.

by John DE 2007-08-11 05:16PM | 0 recs
McCain was 10th

even not trying, that is bad.

by John DE 2007-08-11 05:20PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain was 10th

Yes, 0.7 percent?! And beating only the guy no one's heard of, who wasn't in any of the debates? That's bad.

by KCinDC 2007-08-11 06:19PM | 0 recs
Romney had less than 50%

Doesn't seem like a good number to me, what do you think?

http://iowaindependent.com/showDiary.do? diaryId=781

by John DE 2007-08-11 05:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Yes. I nailed it!! Look at my prediction!!

Romney
Huckabee
Browback

Huckabee is very very electable. Look out for this guy.

by areyouready 2007-08-11 05:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

I agree.  Have been stating that he is a dark horse.

by iamready 2007-08-11 05:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

yep and he's had some really good press lately. Big day for Huckabee -- the law of unintended consequences of Giuliani, McCain and Thompson dropping out -- let one of the little guys gain traction.

by Todd Beeton 2007-08-11 05:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Thompson is a sham, another media creation.

by areyouready 2007-08-11 05:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

For once I totally agree with you.  Huckabee is personable, genuinely conservative, a good debater and the camera loves him.  This will be interesting.  I have been paying attention to him since he said "I'm a conservative but I'm not angry about it."

by Shaun Appleby 2007-08-11 05:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

The best matchup would be Obama and Huckabee, only because of their style.  They both are thoughtful, measured speakers.  And I am stating matchup in style only.  Nothing else, so don't comment on anything else other than that.  Because their styles are similar.

Huckabee, I stated after the first debate, is the Republicans candidate.  He is a minister, he speaks with passion and conviction, but the big thing.  He is believable, personable.  The most believable of all the candidates in that pool.

by iamready 2007-08-11 05:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Yeah, that had occurred to me as well.  On style, they both have a proselytising, inspirational tone.  And I take your point about Huckabee, I was disconcerted to note, after seeing him on the Daily Show, that I actually trusted his integrity as much as I disagree with his values.

I could see him literally crushing Romney in a debate, Giuliani's appeal is his 'tough-guy' persona but his big city background is not a big sell with conservatives.  Huckabee really represents the GOP base in a traditional sense, yet he's a Baptist preacher who plays bass in a pick-up band which does rock and roll covers.  Watch this space.  Ya' gotta' love US politics.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-08-11 06:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

I agree. I actually like Huckabee. He's one of the rare Republicans that you can tell actually get's it. I don't agree with his politics per se but he's someone I can legitmately believes is doing X conservative policy because he thinks it will help people

by world dictator 2007-08-11 06:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

It's scary, isn't it.  He really worries me as a possible contender.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-08-11 06:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

I actually like Huckabee myself. I don't agree with many of his policies but he is one of the very rare Republican populists who is not a puppet of big business. I remember his interview on the Daily Show where Stewart actually commented that he sounds very much like a liberal.

by robliberal 2007-08-11 07:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

If it is Obama - Huckabee, Huckabee may win.  This is not a good scenario for Democrats.  

by pioneer111 2007-08-11 06:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

I think if the GOP were running a populist candidate, and we're not, that's when we would be in trouble.  Say what you will about Hillary it is hard to describe her as a 'populist candidate.'

by Shaun Appleby 2007-08-11 06:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Huckabee isn't a populist candidate. The only populist candidate is Edwards.

And Huckabee has a long long way to go before we're talking about him being the GOP nominee. Even if he was, I doubt he would win. But regardless I think he'll be a VP.

by world dictator 2007-08-11 06:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

I realise he is a long, long shot.  But do I think he is a 'populist' and a potential insurgent.  He seems to be a conservative who aligns with the way conservatives would like to think about themselves, secure in faith, compassionate and relaxed.  It's a worry.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-08-11 07:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

In what way is Huckabee a populist?  

How is he not? For starters a populist is typical hardcore pro union.

by world dictator 2007-08-11 07:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

That's a Democratic populist.  William Jennings Bryant was a populist.  Populism is simply creating an alternative base of support other than the elite establishment within the party, any party.  It is about outreach to the constituency rather than the power-brokers and arguably Huckabee's campaign has relied on this.  Look at his fund-raising, he's come this far on a wing and a prayer and his donation base is Arkansas.  

by Shaun Appleby 2007-08-11 07:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Yes Mike Huckabee the populist who railled to second in Iowa by courting social conservatives.

By your defintion Ron Paul is a populist

by world dictator 2007-08-11 07:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Being a social conservative doesn't mean Huckabee isn't a populist.  In fact, a lot of populist ARE social conservatives.  Lou Dobbs would an obvious example of a socially conservative populist.

Besides, listen to Huckabee's rhetoric:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRnAUFMSU Zc

That's economic populism right there.  Sounds like something John Edwards or a Democrat would say.

by Namtrix 2007-08-11 08:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

That was an impressive clip. Huckabee would get a lot of votes in the general election if he talks like that.

by robliberal 2007-08-11 09:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

I was going to reference this clip.  If he runs that way and somehow survives the primary he is trouble.  

Others have noted the range of qualities he has that are threatening.  The real proof is whether or not Ames is translated into significant boosts in fundraising.  He will get a boost, but will it be big enough to catch up for the fact that he is way far behind?  Where will he find that money?

Evangelicals who aren't down with a Mormon?  Brownback's constituency?  Who with money is he going tap?

by Trond Jacobsen 2007-08-12 12:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

By my definition Ron Paul is an Ayn Rand Libertarian.  If he runs a campaign outside the existing structure and makes the plight of the common person a theme of his campaign then he could be a populist, I suppose, but I don't think he is.  He comes off like a Scientologist.  I think he is a geek candidate for the intellectual Right.  

by Shaun Appleby 2007-08-11 09:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

I wouldn't say you "nailed it" Romney did not crush the field as you predicted.  This was a failure for Romney, I think.

by fakes seizures 2007-08-11 06:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

These results must be disappointing for Romney.  It was a flawed strategy from the start, 'first among pygmies.'  He would have needed to cream the field pretty convincingly and he didn't exactly do that.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-08-11 06:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

I incorrectly predicted that Huckabee would tank. Now I'm definitely worried about this guy. (However, in defense of my predictive abilities, I refer you to my post on MyDD in October 1984 when I correctly predicted Reagan would win the general election.)

by thesleepthief 2007-08-11 05:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Remember though this guy's face is still on the CFG's dart board. They will spend money to smack him down if he starts coming up. We can hope.

by thesleepthief 2007-08-11 05:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Paul,

It's laughable that ultral liberals predicted Paul would be 3rd or fourth place. LOL.

Ultra liberals, just as freepers have no basic understanding of the votes. They believe their belief is the majority opinion.

LOL.

by areyouready 2007-08-11 05:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

I don't know what the fascination is with Ron Paul . He is a rabid rightwinger . The fact that he is against the iraq war doesn't make him any better than bush and those other right wingers .  

These Ultra Liberals think he is on their side which is nuts to me.  Someone even said he is a dem and he will vote for Ron Paul.

by lori 2007-08-11 05:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

It's the same as the anti war liberals who were in love with Murtha. Makes you think...uhhh have you seen what his stances are on the issues?

by world dictator 2007-08-11 06:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

it's the sentiment over facts crowd. Ron Paul, is, afterall, a White Supremist and someone who puts earmarks into appropriations bills only to vote against them. What a hypocrite.

the other Texas Congressmen know him as a bit loony.

by KainIIIC 2007-08-11 06:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Ron Paul is a Libertarian; which is much much much worse than a Republican.

by lonnette33 2007-08-11 07:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

The fact that he is against the Iraq war makes him a lot better than Bush and the other neocons, and somewhat better than Democratic candidates who would leave tens of thousands of troops as a "residual force" in Iraq.

The war is the single biggest issue, by far.

The second biggest issue is civil liberties and the encroaching police state tyranny.  Ron Paul has been the strongest voice in Congress in this area, is completely opposed to the Patriot Act, the Military Commissions Act, and all the rest.  He is not only head and shoulders above the Republican field on civil liberties, he's head and shoulders above the Democratic field.

Sure, he's conservative on spending and social issues, but would have to fight with Congress on those.  Foreign policy and civil liberties are under much more direct presidential control.

by Lex 2007-08-13 08:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

If there's bad news for anyobem here, and frankly this is just looks like an afterthought already given the lack of major contenders other than Romney, it's for Paul.  That's a bad showing for a guy who's gotten a lot of good press.

Good news?  I don't see that anyone has gained much, here.  Somebody has to finish 2nd, right?  

by danielj 2007-08-11 05:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Ron Paul is ultra liberals' pipe dream just as freepers want Gravel to gain any traction. LOL.

by areyouready 2007-08-11 05:40PM | 0 recs
WTF are you talking about?

You really need to try and remember who your political opponents are.

Personally I am realy getting sicj and tired of your attacks on liberals.

I know they pull similar bullshit about ?Hillary but no serious person is listening to that crap from them.

You are getting as bad as the Naderites.

by Big Tent Democrat 2007-08-11 05:47PM | 0 recs
Re: WTF are you talking about?

this person is not a democrat, period.  we are the party of the big tent, and we argue amongst each other, but we do not attack each other because one may be more libertarian, moderate, centrist, or liberal.  again, not a democrat.

by iamready 2007-08-11 05:50PM | 0 recs
No

This person is a Democrat.

But this person lets their support for Hillary let some of the silly stuff said about her get under his skin so he lashes out in ridiculous fashion.

by Big Tent Democrat 2007-08-11 05:51PM | 0 recs
Re: WTF are you talking about?

iceberslim? LOL.

by areyouready 2007-08-11 05:54PM | 0 recs
Re: WTF are you talking about?

no.  but you are not a democrat, if you are, you need to be schooled, immediately.

by iamready 2007-08-11 05:57PM | 0 recs
Re: WTF are you talking about?

Areyouready is a Democrat , that question should be directed to those Hillary haters who say they will vote for Ron Paul the right winger instead of Hillary .

by lori 2007-08-11 06:00PM | 0 recs
I see

You think his attacks on liberals is a good thng then?

I really can not stand this kind of BS.

Areyou ready is way out of line, as are the folks who attack Hillary in ridiculous ways.

But please do not defend this behavior. It does not reflect well on you imo.

by Big Tent Democrat 2007-08-11 06:08PM | 0 recs
Re: I see

Calm down, buddy! Did you see Chris' new analysis, he's now changing his 'Clinton poll inflation' theory for the fourth time. LOL.

by areyouready 2007-08-11 06:10PM | 0 recs
Don't attack the base of your own Party

Bowers on polls is not worth discussing. I have said so many times, indeed since 2003.

by Big Tent Democrat 2007-08-11 06:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Don't attack the base of your own Party

The base of the democratic party are democratic interest groups and minorities.

Not retarded bloggers.

But as I mention below the defintion of liberal is the problem

by world dictator 2007-08-11 07:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Don't attack the base of your own Party

The base of the democratic party are democratic interest groups and minorities.

Not retarded bloggers.

But as I mention below the defintion of liberal is the problem

by world dictator 2007-08-11 07:00PM | 0 recs
Re: I see

I kind of wonder where this influx of new people came from.

Chris's "Use it or lose it" campaign was simply brilliant, and very well may have netted us a few house seats.

Chris's "Clinton inflated poll" theory is interesting, and it's based on realistic observations and evidence. If you want another bit of evidence, look at the new Iowa poll that showed Clinton winning overall, yet Edwards winning among likely voters.

by KainIIIC 2007-08-11 06:56PM | 0 recs
Re: I see

Chris recanted his inflated Clinton poll theory

by world dictator 2007-08-11 07:01PM | 0 recs
Re: I see

actually he has changed at least four times on his 'inflation' theory. He recanted in March or April. But couple of days ago in an Iowa poll analysis, he claimed that theory might still hold true in Iowa. Yesterday, he had another 'analysis', in which he recanted that theory again. LOL.

by areyouready 2007-08-11 07:03PM | 0 recs
Re: I see

When Chris' "inflated poll" theory first came about, I rebutted it, because there was strong evidence that Clinton's support is actually underreported, not overreported.  I think polling since that time have shown that to be the more correct view.  

by georgep 2007-08-11 08:27PM | 0 recs
Re: I see

I never actually said it was correct, only that it was an interesting point that seemed to hold some credence at the time, and some of the time as well. In the latest Iowa poll, for example, Clinton isn't leading among likely voters, and regardless of your opinions, polling outfits that use different voter models produce different results. Some are worse than others, especially in my opinion the Iowa poll that showed Obama in the lead with 40% of respondents saying they have never participated in the caucus before (that number is ridiculously high, and would probably not exceed 18%, averaging 12% every 4 years).

I suppose this all goes back to the question of which polling outfits are better than others. I still currently place most of my confidence with SUSA (although they've stayed out of Iowa/New Hampshire polls for the most part).

by KainIIIC 2007-08-11 11:40PM | 0 recs
Re: I see

When I see someone state "ultra-liberal" I see 2 things:

1. That person is a more moderate Democrat, thus indentifies only with the more standard liberal, progressive dogma.

2. The term "ultra-liberal" is really code for "Naderites."  

by georgep 2007-08-11 08:33PM | 0 recs
Re: WTF are you talking about?

The problem is a label problem. There's not really a good word to refer to someone who is legitmately on the fringe left.

I agree that we're all democrats and there are democrats i disagree with but can still relate to on core democratic values. Dennis Kuchnich...pretty far left. But still he's relatively rational/sane.

But then there are those who are on the "fringe left" who say things like:

-9/11 was an attack by the US government

-The US is a terrorist organization worse than Al Qaedia

- the government is an "evil" organization that runs a cloak and dagger operation predicated on lies

etc,etc

These people I do not identify with in anyway.

There's also the less dellusional aspect of the far left who insist on there is this vast washington establishment conspirarcy and believe that the US should withdraw within our borders and be nice to terrorists and then everyone will be happy with us and everyone really agrees with them except the EVIL CORPORATE MSM SILENCES THE TRUTH!!!! And if you disagree with me I'll call you a fasicist since that word apparently means "to disagree with an idiot"

I don't dislike these people as much as the fringe left crazies but they're pretty fucking stupid. They need to put down the bong and read a newspaper.

by world dictator 2007-08-11 06:57PM | 0 recs
You are ultra-delusional

I think it's really fucked up for any Democrat to enforce the ultimate right-wing frame...that being "liberal" is bad.

I prefer "progressive populist" but I am proud of my "liberal" values.

All this talk of "ultra liberals" is strange coming from a supporter of an "ultra unelectable" candidate.

Your attempts to simplify everything are ridiculous. So basically, if we don't support Hillary we are either par of the right-wing conspiracy or "ultra-liberals".

Oh my god...I think this calls for some Rasmussen numbers.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/favorables/election_2008 _democratic_candidates_running_in_2008_p residential_election

Favorable/Unfavorable

Hillary Clinton - 50/48

Conservative: 8%
Moderate: 29%
Liberal: 57%

Barack Obama - 48/42

Conservative: 8%
Moderate: 28%
Liberal: 51%

John Edwards - 54/39

Conservative: 13%
Moderate: 30%
Liberal: 44%

Looks like most people think that your candidate is the "ULTRA LIBERAL"

Remember when Edwards' fav/unfav dipped and I said it would fluctuate back to the best of the Dems, like it usally is?  Well now he has the best fav/unfav period.

It must suck to back a candidate who can't...you know...win.

by Michael 4 Edwards 2007-08-11 07:25PM | 0 recs
Re: You are ultra-delusional

It must suck to back a candidate who can't...you know...win.

I know being an Edwards supporter is rough and all but it can't be that bad. Though I wouldn't know. I've never supported a candidate THAT far behind in the polls before.

by world dictator 2007-08-11 07:57PM | 0 recs
Re: You are ultra-delusional

Once again a Clinton supporter cites shitty national polls.

They are as unreliable as it gets (they include far too many casual, low-info Democrats wgho will not vote in a primary or attend a caucus)...but you people already know that.

Face it a-hole,

Your candidate sounds as shrill as it gets.
Her personal life is going to give the GOP a huge weapon to beat her with...though they could most likely beat her without it.
She is corrupt to the core and it's obvious.

But you still support her because some emotional connection you have to the Clintons from the 90's.

You are not a Democrat. You are a Clintonista.
Big difference.

I want the Democratic Party to win big.
You just want to give Shrillary (Sorry but she really is THAT shrill)another chance at power.

Edwards has a much better chance of winning the nomination than Clinton has of winning the general.

Oh my god...Did I just kick the ass of another selfish DLC-defending Clintonista?

Yeah, I did.  Not that it's hard to do considering your thought process doesn't go beyond...

"Bill Democrat president...Hillary Bill's Wife...Hillary Democrat...Me Democrat...Me Support Hillary!"

Why don't you, "areyoureadyforsomefootball", "lori", "georgiep", and "robcentrist" all get together, drink your Howard Wolfson spiked Kool-Aid and clap along to "Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow" or Celine Dion in your matching pant suits.

On you, your candidate, and most of the delusional people who support her, I CALL BULLSHIT.

by Michael 4 Edwards 2007-08-12 01:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Huckabee is a candidate who would have very broad crossover appeal without the baggage of Romney, the Mayor, etc. I would not be surprised to see him being able to attract some funding now. He may also have a good shot at VP as well.

by robliberal 2007-08-11 05:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

I have higher expectations for him. Since GOP's frontrunners Rudy, Romney and Thompson keep on making all sorts of gaffees, I have even higher expectations for this guy.

If you can raise decent amount of money over the next 2 months, watch out for him. I believe he'll get a big bounce in the press.

GOP field is generally very unexciting, but because of his strong showing, I expect MSM will shift their attention to GOP side for a while. Edwards and Obama are no longer interesting to the press with their weak debate showing.

by areyouready 2007-08-11 05:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

if he can

by areyouready 2007-08-11 05:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

I agree, if he gets anything like a reasonable fund-raising boost from this, and more media exposure, he may very likely give any of the top-tier Republicans a run for their money, so to speak.  Given the amount of money he has had to work with so far his showing has been pretty impressive.

Romney, Giuliani and Thompson all have fatal flaws from the perspective of the Republican base that we hear so much about.  I have long felt that the Democrats are further down the road to actually selecting their nominee at this stage in the campaign, it think it would be a mistake to discount the possibility of a late insurgent candidate in the Republican field.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-08-11 05:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Since when have Republicans elected reasonable candidates with broad base appeal.

You have to remember he's reasonable to people on the left like us. Which means to people on the right  he seems like a wuss ass.

Besides I don't think in a foreign policy election people are going to pick him as the guy with the nuclear access codes.

I like him I'm just saying he has VP written all over him

by world dictator 2007-08-11 07:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Fair point, but these are strange times.  Reagan springs to mind, but I always thought he had the brains of a Muppet character.  I think presidential campaigns are about the projected personality of the candidate as much as policy, at least to the electorate.  On those grounds Huckabee could be in the hunt if he gets sufficient exposure.  He has performed consistently well in the debates, he's a declared candidate, hasn't changed his stance on abortion or civil marriage, he's not a Mormon and he isn't from the Big Smoke.  Kinda' puts him in a class of his own compared to the top three at the moment.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-08-11 07:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

You know I'm tired of people, and I'm not aiming this at you specifically Shaun, bringing up the Reagan example anytime an underdog shows any life at all.

Like I said I like Huckabee but considering that the first and second place candidates for the GOP werent thereits way to early to be shaking in your boots over huckabee. He needs to raise way above the 1% he's polling at nationally and then raise about $20 million more to be considered a serious contender.

Does his second place finish help him? Yes. Will it it allow him to take on Giuliani, Thompson, and Romney? Probably not. He still has to fight Brownback, who he beat by a few percentages, for the social conservatives vote before he even registers on the radar.

Once again I'm not saying it happens I'm just saying there's A LOT of things that need to happen for him to even get momentum first.

Now if Brownback dropped out, pushed Huckabee, and the socail conservatives all lined up behind Huckabee THEN he could make a splash. But even with that he needs to show his chops on foreign policy before he has any chance to win the GOP nomination

by world dictator 2007-08-11 08:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

I was responding to your question about the Republicans selecting reasonable candidates with broad based appeal.  Reagan seems to fit the bill, at least on the appeal.  And I am not suggesting that Huckabee is going anywhere fast but he was banking heavily on this outcome and it there was a real 'winner' at Ames it was him.

But I agree he is still going to have trouble getting any daylight.  However no-one is going to suggest he be left out of any future GOP debates either.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-08-11 08:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

The point which is often missed about Huckabee is that he has successfully upheld conservative Republican values as Governor without a legislative majority.  If Republicans anticipate a similar situation in Congress, and I suggest they had better, Huckabee's track record in Arkansas could be a strong selling point.  I know they are bashing him up over tax but they'll get over it.

At a time when conservatives are looking for a real leader to fall back on and regroup that seems to recommend him highly.  He worries me, frankly, and has an unblemished record as a values based conservative compared to the rest of the top tier.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-08-11 05:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

It seems to me that Huckabee & Brownbeck really divide the Republican social issur far right.  I think one of them could emerge -- Huckabee seems a better bet -- but there is just not room in the race for both of them.

by howardpark 2007-08-11 05:52PM | 0 recs
For once I agree...

I can't believe it but you are completely right about Hucakbee being VP.  I think that the VP sweepstakes looks like this...

Romney - Demint, Sanford, F. Thompson, Barbour, Huckabee (a southern wingnut for sure)

Thompson - Sanford, Huckabee, Thune.  He's going to want a younger VP because of his health concerns.  Barbour is a probable no because people would be concerned about the weight factor.

Giuliani - Barbour, Sanford, Huckabee.

McCain - I doubt he will win but if he did it looks like he's alredy settled on T-Paw.

by Michael 4 Edwards 2007-08-11 06:06PM | 0 recs
Re: For once I agree...

I forgot about Perry and Bailey Hutchinson.  They were feuding over setting themselves up for the VP slot last year.  

On a side note, if Brownback doesn't drop out I would expect him to start throwing some bombs.

He didn't finish that far behind Huck, if the straq poll result is right.

I say he stays in and plays the wingnut purity card for all it's worth.

"I am more anti-choice than you are and I really really really hate gay people!" - Sam Brownback's new slogan.

Notice how most GOP candidates use a 3 word slogan that is a mix of the following words (Gilmore did this too in his Senate trojan horse masked as a presidential campaign)

New
Real
Consistent
Authentic
Principled
Common Sense
Conservative
Republican

It's the paint by numbers GOP campaign!
Leader

by Michael 4 Edwards 2007-08-11 06:11PM | 0 recs
Rodney Dangerfield Thompson

I think the low turnout partially reflects the dispirited mood of the GOP base.  One would also think that frontrunner Giuliani would have done a little better despite his choice to opt out.  Also, as a Wisconsinite for a decade back in the 80's, I am surprised that the three term Governoor of a swing state like Wisconsin, Tommy Thompson, fared so poorly.  He is the Rodney Dangerfield of the Republican Party.  Thompson had a record of absolutely crushing Democrats during his Wisconsin career but obviously his appeal stops at the state line of the Badger state.

by howardpark 2007-08-11 05:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Rodney Dangerfield Thompson

I was surprised at this too.  Overall, Thompson, was well liked on both sides, while Governor of Wisconsin.  Again, this goes back to the public being fickle and I think change is wanted on both sides.

by iamready 2007-08-11 05:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Rodney Dangerfield Thompson

Well, I never liked him.  Thompson's best shot would have been during the Clinton years, when he could have touted Wisconsin's welfare reform system.  At that point, he might have been able to gain more traction, or at least he could have been a viable VP candidate with the potential to become President down the line.  Life in the Bush Administration completely neutered him, which is fine by me.

by rfahey22 2007-08-11 06:55PM | 0 recs
Tommy Thompson

will probably drop out after this. He's said a number of times that he "has to win the Ames straw poll" or that's it. It'll be good to have him off their stage people can focus on grilling the other crazies.

by Quinton 2007-08-11 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Tommy Thompson

Thompson was probably their most decent candidate, and probably their most electable... too bad he has a double chin, wears hearing aids, and gets no traction on the right... its just better for us!

by KainIIIC 2007-08-11 06:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Good showing from Huckabe and i now expect him to zoom past Rudy in Iowa.

The press will give him some much needed coverage that he desperatly needed.

He's a very well spoken genuwine conservative that doesnt sound scary and i expect him to gain some traction.

From now on , he has to shoot for second place in Iowa and my guess is he'll be attacking Giluani and Romney on their liberal records to gain some traction.

by JaeHood 2007-08-11 05:50PM | 0 recs
Where were all those Swift -boat veterans hiding?


Surely the majority of these pro-war Republican candidates just forgot to call all the Veterans groups to come support them??

Oh well, wait till Romney's their chosen one.  He'll set a very fine example for a Commander in Chief in a time of war.

I'm dying to see his costume of choice.

by hazmaq 2007-08-11 06:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Though I wouldn't vote for him, Huckabee is probably the only Republican I wouldn't mind as president.  He's not a partisan ideologue or a rabid right-winger.  He's affable, optimistic, and he'd actually be able to work with Democrats in congress and get things done for the country, unlike his rivals or our current president.  That makes him very appealing -- and worst of all, electable.  I'd watch out for him.  We need a Democratic victory in 2008, and Huckabee is one of the few Republicans who could beat us.

Obama vs. Huckabee match-up would be pretty sweet though.

"Hope vs. Hope"

by Namtrix 2007-08-11 06:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Obama will likely lose in a landslide in such scenario.

by areyouready 2007-08-11 06:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

I think it'd be impossible for any Democrat to lose in a landslide.  If Republican wins, it'll be tight.  I also disagree with Obama losing.  I think he's guaranteed the presidency if he wins the nomination, but right now the odds are in Hillary's favor for the nomination, so that point doesn't matter much.

We'll see what happens.

by Namtrix 2007-08-11 07:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

It depends on which Republican Obama runs against. If it is Giuliani (unlikely) he will have to fight for NY, PA, NJ, CA, WI and OH.

by RJGajadhar 2007-08-12 03:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Not likely.  It's the status quo candidate whom he would defeat handily, especially one who rallied the GOP to the barricades.  I think you need to see Huckabee as a 'change' candidate from the Right's perspective.  Gee, it's a relief to disagree with you again.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-08-11 07:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Obama's 'change' theme rings very hollow. There's no substance attached to it. I find him to be more like a safe establishment candidate with no fire under his belly in those debates.

I generally have a good grasp of these things. My instinct tells me Obama is not going to sell in general election.

From the polling you can also see his limitation. His major appeal is among white, high-educated liberals. I really don't believe he projects an authenticity that's necessary to win the middle class...

To me, he is sort of a fantasy 'winner' image to people on the very liberal side. They believe they found a magic 'winner' to promote their ideology, but to many ordinary folks, Obama just does not connect.

by areyouready 2007-08-11 07:43PM | 0 recs
More of The Same

And right back to subjective attacks on Obama reinforced by polling data.  Did you actually say  he's a fantasy winner to 'people on the very liberal' side?  From your previous ideological analyses I assume you mean progressive Democrats.  From your tone it sounds very much like you do not count yourself among them.

And the use-by date of the fantasy frame for dismissing Obama's campaign expired a couple of months ago, you may have noticed.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-08-11 07:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

his views on social issues would/could be his downfall, which are very outside of the mainstream of the country. Economically speaking, he followed by T Thompson would be the least offensive to Democrats.

by KainIIIC 2007-08-11 07:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Actually, Huckabee is as right as you can get, but I agree, he is likable. The only reason I will worry about Huckabee in a general is that he could do what Bush did in 2000 and 2004, and that is rally the base.

by RJGajadhar 2007-08-12 03:17PM | 0 recs
Foul Play?

There were 26,000 total Tickets sold, yet there were only just 14,302 votes tabulated.

Think about that for a minute.
26,000 people purchase tickets to go to a Straw Poll event and yet we are to believe that 12,000 of the people couldn't even care less about the voting? Just what were they there for?

This is not believable.
12,000 people went through all that trouble to get a ticket, drive a long distance, wrestle around with parking or public transportation, and spent their whole Saturday away at a crowded event, and then did not even vote for anybody?
What were they there for again?

I think what happened is that the Diebold E-Voting machines threw away votes -- as we also saw last year with 2006 Florida-13 race--, and, most likely threw away the votes that were  intended for only the anti-Iraq, anti-War, anti-Central-Bank, candidate Ron Paul.

We all know that Ron Paul had a huge very visible and very vocal crowd of supporters there at the event, that were perhaps equal in number to or at least in the same ballpark as Mitt Romney.  

So, if the machine only registered 1 out of every 4 Ron Paul votes for Ron Paul himself and threw the rest out, that would explain his lighter than expected 1,000 vote total, and also explain some of the huge gap between ticket buyers (26,000) and vote total (14,000).

Of course, it could even be worse than this (even more thrown away votes for Paul), thus robbing Paul of an outright victory in the Straw Poll.

The point is that we will never know.
E-Voting Machines are not transparent.
E-Voting Machines are not verifiable (even with a Paper receipt, because as we have seen, there is no after-the-fact Court litigation remedy that isn't directly obstructed)
E-Voting Machines are the privatization of our right to vote.
The Corporations that do this do not release their software, and the systems are proven to be easily tamperable even with honest vote tabulation software.

All it takes is one insider to throw the Election.

I don't trust these results at all.
Who is with me on this?

by DerekLarsson 2007-08-11 06:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Foul Play?

I'd wait for one of the campaigns to cry foul before such speculation.  Who knows what goes on in Republican brains - there could be another explanation.

by rfahey22 2007-08-11 07:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Foul Play?

Dude!!  Most people there didn't pay for their supporters to attend.  The campaigns paid for the tickets. It's funny that campaigns paid for that many tickets when only half voted.  Talk about little excitement.

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2007-08-11 07:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Foul Play?

As stated above, the campaigns bought most of the tickets. I'm sure there were a few thousand no-shows, even if the tickets were paid for. Also, this was really a big fundraiser/rally for Iowa Republicans. Voting in the straw poll was only one of many reasons that people would attend.

But really, do we need to get worked up about electronic voting machines being used in an informal Republican straw poll?

by Luigi Montanez 2007-08-11 07:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Foul Play?

"But really, do we need to get worked up about electronic voting machines being used in an informal Republican straw poll?"

The point is that they should not be used,  period ... anywhere.

And it matters, because I would rather see a General Election race between two anti-War candidates (Obama or Edwards or Kucinch .vs. Ron Paul), then run the risk of seeing decades of more War, Death, Torture, Bankruptcy, and financial ruin.

by DerekLarsson 2007-08-11 08:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Foul Play?

I don't suspect foul play.  I think Romney bought 10,000 tickets, and could only give 4,500 of them away.

by Lex 2007-08-13 08:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Ho Hum, anybody remember the Tenn. straw poll? Frist won that one.

by del 2007-08-11 07:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Frist "cheated" in that poll. He packed the event with his supporters.

by RJGajadhar 2007-08-12 03:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

my pal james is vedio blogging for the politico - I thought this one from the brownback tent was great- http://www.politico.com/multimedia/politicovideo.html?pageref=Photo_Video-620608

Huck has let james interview him several times... I actaully like the Huck a lot, maybe not his policies - but he seems like a good decent person.  And, at least his Christianity means a little more than Gays and Abortions.

by CardBoard 2007-08-11 07:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Read this background about the GOP in the Economist...

http://www.economist.com/opinion/display story.cfm?story_id=9619083

http://www.economist.com/opinion/display story.cfm?story_id=9621579

by Boilermaker 2007-08-11 08:18PM | 0 recs
I called Huckabee a year ago

Rarely post anymore, but I had to drop by and say "I told ya so".  There is no beating the Southern Governor Theory.

by jcjcjc 2007-08-11 08:50PM | 0 recs
Rasmussen match up

Edwards (49%) Giuliani (42%)
Edwards (50%) Huckabee (33%)
Edwards (45%) McCain (38%)
Edwards (52%) Romney (36%)
Edwards (50%) Thompson (39%)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/favorables/election_2008 _democratic_candidates_running_in_2008_p residential_election

This has been a trend from the beginning. Edwards is the most electable. He is most likely to win a southern state as 1/3 of his donations come from southern states.

by mrobinsong 2007-08-12 08:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen match up

Edwards is the most electable. Agreed!

by Boilermaker 2007-08-13 05:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa Straw Poll Results Open Thread

Despite Romney's polls now, I'm more worried about Romney as a general election candidate than Giuliani. Romney is running his campaign as a Republican outsider, same as Sarkozy did and he won. He has this charm, good looks and presidential appearance about him that could be appealing and not to mention he was a Governor and Governor's win elections. Democrats can take on Giuliani. There is a lot of dirt on Giuliani just waiting to be unleased, but Romney could be interesting. Having said that, with the state of the Republican party and the fact he is a mormon, Romney could alienate many Republicans in a general.

I would not be surprised if we see a Romney vs. Edwards or Romney vs. Clinton election in 2008.

by RJGajadhar 2007-08-12 03:10PM | 0 recs

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