Labor in '07 not as big as Labor in '03
by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Aug 01, 2007 at 06:26:07 AM EDT
There's a NYT's article on the potential of Labor endorsements that is worth the read. The 55 member unions of the AFL-CIO will not endorse anyone until the federation has decided whether to make an overall endorsement, which would take a two-thirds majority to get their endorsement.
Last cycle, Gephardt & Dean wound up getting big support from labor, but that doesn't appear the route that the AFL-CIO's Sweeney, "We learned from the last time" and AFSCME's McEntee "We made a big error" are going to take this cycle. Change to Win is also not going to endorse; and though SEIU's Stern seems more open to it, it's not for sure that they will endorse.
So what's next:
While in the spin room after the SC Debate, I interviewed the campaign manager for Edwards, David Bonior, and asked him about the endorsements. He predicted that Edwards would receive the endorsement more than half of those unions that endorsed. He also predicted that "Culinary" (UNITE-HERE 622), which is the big cahuna in NV politics, would go for Edwards.
Overall, it doesn't look like the Fall '07 labor endorsements will be as big a deal as were the Fall '03 labor endorsements. David Sirota has an informative post up on how Obama is not letting Edwards have the populist message all to himself. Obama is in a similar position, but any labor endorsements he gets will likely be Chicago-based, but he's got to make sure Edwards doesn't get labor endorsement momentum. And Clinton will be just as active in getting endorsements, or making sure that Edwards or Obama doesn't get them either, as well Dodd and Richardson.
The caveat that Bonior has there, half of those that endorsed, is that it might not be a very large number either way. The best-case scenario for Edwards, who was once presumed to have union support cornered, would seem to be him winning the Iowa caucus, and then getting the Culinary endorsement on the eve of the Nevada caucus; and Edwards/Bonior would likely have strong momentum to make the case going into the Michigan caucus.