Coleman Looking Increasingly Vulnerable in Minnesota

Republican Norm Coleman is in the interesting position of being one of the few incumbent Senators this year who was outraised in the second quarter by at least one of his challengers (in the case of Coleman, Democrat Al Franken). But that's not the only bad news for Coleman's hopes of winning a second term in the Senate. New polling of Minnesota registered voters conducted over the weekend by SurveyUSA indicates that Coleman can't hit 50 percent against any of his potential Democratic challengers.

628 RVs, July 26-29, MoE +/- 4% (2/07)

Coleman49 (57)
Franken42 (35)

Coleman48 (57)
Ciresi42 (34)

Coleman49 (N/A)
Cohen37 (N/A)

Coleman doesn't appear to be in quite the bind that his fellow Republican freshman John Sununu is in over in New Hampshire, with the Granite State GOP Senator consistently trailing his potential Democratic challenger Jean Shaheen by a margin well into the double digits. Nonetheless, Coleman is extremely weak -- and the fact that he continues to stand by the President on the Iraq War isn't helping out his case.

Republicans have been salivating over the possibility that Franken will get the nomination because as a comedian and entertainer Franken is seemingly unelectable in Minnesota. But Republicans really need to start worrying about their own, because if this pace keeps up and Coleman becomes even a bit less popular than he is now, he may be the unelectable one.

Tags: Minnesota, MN-Sen, norm coleman, Senate 2008 (all tags)

Comments

16 Comments

Re: Coleman Looking Increasingly Vulnerable in Min

The third challenger, Jim Cohen, has no statewide name recognition at all.  The 49-37 result in that poll is the "generic candidate" baseline for Coleman.  Basically Coleman can't crack 50 percent against a guy no one has heard of.  

I've been struggling trying to decide who would do better against Coleman, Franken or Ciresi, and this poll doesn't help me answer that question.  

by gregabbott 2007-07-31 02:51AM | 0 recs
polling won't help you there...

what you really need to know is who is out on the streets, both as candidate and campaign.  minnesota has a proud political culture that pretty much demands that candidates/campaigns spend the summer knocking on doors.  if franken isn't doing this, then he's not likely to win.  just as important, the dfl has one of the best voter databases on the democratic side.  but it's by no means perfect.  the smart campaign will be adding to it now.  if ciresi is out there knocking on doors and has field teams doing the same, franken has more of a race than he intended.  money won't be as decisive as franken would like if he's not talking to voters on their doorsteps...

by bored now 2007-07-31 04:13AM | 0 recs
Re: polling won't help you there...

I thought that's what Franken has been doing.  Going to the county fairs.  Speaking to different groups.  You name it.

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2007-07-31 05:25AM | 0 recs
i can't say i know the answer...

by bored now 2007-08-05 10:56AM | 0 recs
Re: polling won't help you there...

"if ciresi is out there knocking on doors and has field teams doing the same, franken has more of a race than he intended.  money won't be as decisive as franken would like if he's not talking to voters on their doorsteps..."

It's a US senate race.  Not a city council seat.  I'd rather Franken be making speeches, attacking Republicans and Coleman, and raising money than knocking on trailer doors in rural Minnesota.

by jgarcia 2007-07-31 11:26AM | 0 recs
every been to minnesota?

by bored now 2007-08-05 10:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Coleman Looking Increasingly Vulnerable in Min

Franken campaigned all over for people in 2006 to help win the majority in legislature, and he helped raise money for the guy who defeated the incumbent US House member.  

by JeremiahTheMessiah 2007-07-31 08:13AM | 0 recs
Yeah, Who In Minnesota Would Vote For A Wrestler..

I mean, a comedian?

And where do I get to be a highly-paid political consultant by mouthing such blather?

by Paul Rosenberg 2007-07-31 03:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Coleman Looking Increasingly Vulnerable in Min

Franken seems like he's actually willing to work hard for the nomination, unlike some celebrity candidates.  I think he's being underrated.

by Steve M 2007-07-31 04:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Coleman Looking Increasingly Vulnerable

Franken's definitely being underrated, although I'm sure Coleman is taking him seriously. Franken can raise money.. and he's against the war... that's might be all you need to win.

by BobbyNYC 2007-07-31 05:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Coleman Looking Increasingly Vulnerable

Coleman's camp has taken shots at Franken on at least 2 different occasions.  They are scared.  

by JeremiahTheMessiah 2007-07-31 08:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Coleman Looking Increasingly Vulnerable in Min

Franken's not assuming that the nomination is going to be a coronation. Everything I've read indicates that he's pounding the pavement pretty hard.

Coleman is in trouble. Franken may not win the nomination, but if he does, that doesn't mean something good happens for Coleman. He's vulnerable and Franken is running very specifically against Coleman.

By the time of the general election, I suspect the public will be taking comedian Al Franken very seriously. He'll have been talking about issues and engaging the population for quite a while by then.

by KB 2007-07-31 06:08AM | 0 recs
Increasingly Vulnerable in Minnesota

I think I'll donate to Franken's campaign on Friday.

by Vox Populi 2007-07-31 06:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Coleman Looking Increasingly Vulnerable in Min
I await watching c-span when Sen. Franken bludgeons Lieberman with sarcasm then cuts him off at the knees with a chainsaw of facts.....
I've contributed to make this fantasy real...
by DenverD 2007-07-31 07:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Coleman Looking Increasingly Vulnerable

I have thought since last year when Al worked so hard for the mid-terms that he would be a formidable candidate and that seems to be coming true.  Good Luck Al!

by Demo Dan in Dayton 2007-07-31 08:59AM | 0 recs
Great Expectations

Franken's rap as "unserious" is a very easy bar to overcome; when voters see the positive campaign ads about Al, and his demolition of Coleman in debates, they will realize that the "Hollywood darling" label pushed by the Coleman camp is not appropriate.

He's run a brilliant campaign, and I think his earnestness and intelligence come out in his speeches and conversations with voters.

by Jon 2007-07-31 11:22AM | 0 recs

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