Republican Brand Officially Crashes Among Young Voters

A new research report (pdf) from Democracy Corps outlines in exquisite detail (god I love schadenfreude) the collapse of the "Republican" brand among young people:

Better Job

Here's some other interesting findings:

  • A generic Democrat currently beats a generic Republican 57 - 39%.
  • In the more specific showdown of Guiliani vs. Obama or Clinton (the three most popular candidates among young voters), the Democratic lead among likely voters narrows only slightly to 55 - 40% .
  • They study marks pocketbook issues - jobs, debt, the economy, etc. - as the most important issues to young voters.  Even more important than the war, Daruf, or climate change.  Democrats will need to speak to - and produce results on - these issues if they are to maintain this advantage and, indeed, potentially increase it. Fwiw, I don't know that I buy this. Democrats just ushered through the biggest college assistance bill since the G.I. Bill, but Congressional approval is still in the tank. Economic issues may rank highest in a survey, but Iraq is the most visible issue in the media. W/o progress in Iraq, do domestic policy victories matter?
  • The authors note that Democrats' advantage is the result of the diverse makeup of the Millennial generation.  Among young white males, the Republicans still hold an advantage over Democrats.

More on the candidates and specific Demographic breakdowns:

Dem Margin 2008

There's lots more to look at in this study, but I'm banging up against some book deadlines and the looming Yearly Kos convention, so won't really have the time to dig deeper.  But I encourage everyone to check it out.  It's a pretty short, but info-packed, report. Also - a methodological note: this survey is of likely voters, and also took pains to oversample young people of color, and those who don't have landlines (via cellphone and online polling).

Tags: Democracy Corps, Millennials, polling, youth vote (all tags)

Comments

19 Comments

Re: Republican Brand Officially Crashes Among Youn

yeah funny clinton leads guiliani by a wide margin among young voters , obama leads guiliani by a little . I thought conventional wisdom says young voters are strong for Obama not so much for clinton.  

by lori 2007-07-28 11:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Republican Brand Officially Crashes Among Youn

Actually, she leads amongst young voters, something this survey shows as well.  That CW is wrong, even though it is carefully cultivated by the Obama people.  

by georgep 2007-07-28 11:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Republican Brand Officially Crashes Among Youn

Hillary's support among Women, Hispanics and Blacks versus Giuliani is WOW! It is telling that she gets a 0 ranking from men. This portends of sexist attitudes that will need to be overcome. Still she leads Obama against Giuliani.

by Tommy Twolicks 2007-07-28 11:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Republican Brand Officially Crashes Among Youn

Perhaps, but not for sure, She scores in the minus for students and nobody would blame that on sexism. more data is needed before you jump to that sort of conclusion

by Ernst 2007-07-28 11:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Republican Brand Officially Crashes Among Youn

You are probably right but her zero score from men seemed unusual. But I hear from people all the time that we aren't ready to elect a woman. I of course don't agree but I do hear it frequently.

by Tommy Twolicks 2007-07-28 11:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Republican Brand Officially Crashes Among Youn

I wonder why there is a disparity with the hispanic vote.

by lori 2007-07-28 11:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Republican Brand Officially Crashes Among Youn

And with the Black vote as well while he gets big slice of the white male vote. While Clinton is banking on the minorities. It shows that group identification is less a driving force that generally though. Interesting.

by Ernst 2007-07-28 11:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Republican Brand

Going with current events, the interesting thing here is that Clinton beats Giuliani by 16% and does better than Obama.  But, a Clinton/Obama ticket actually only gets a 15% over Giuliani, Clinton loses a point when Obama is added to her ticket.   So, going without Obama is probably better for her chances against someone like Giuliani, esepcially amongst women who strongly support Clinton over Giuliani, but turn away in large numbers when Obama is added to the ticket (a drop of 11%.)

With the latest events, a Clinton/Obama ticket is exceedingly unlikely.    

by georgep 2007-07-28 11:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Republican Brand

I thought it was an aggregate in stead of a ticket.

by Ernst 2007-07-28 11:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Republican Brand

"With the latest events, a Clinton/Obama ticket is exceedingly unlikely."

I would agree with that. It depends if Obama backs off from his over the line attack strategy. Strangely Reagan offered the Vice Presidency to Bush after he called his economic policy Voodoo Economics. So who knows. He certainly never called him a Carter Liberal. Maybe in some strange way that is another reason Obama has suddenly embraced Reagan.

by Tommy Twolicks 2007-07-28 11:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Republican Brand

A Clinton / Obama ticket is unlikely because Hillary is smarter than that. And, he doesn't want to be VP anyway.

by arkansasdemocrat 2007-07-28 04:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Republican Brand Officially Crashes Among Youn

I like that Democrats now own the balanced budget issue.

I remember in one of my first political science classes a couple of years ago, the professor was telling us which party is generically most trusted to handle different issues. When she mentioned that Republicans were most trusted to balance the budget, the entire class (born in the mid 80s) looked at one another and pointed out that that made no sense at all, given the out of control spending of Reagan and the Bushes and the fiscal discipline of Clinton.

She conceded that, yes, trusting Republicans to balance the budget was a view held by older folks who came of age in the 60s and 70s, and that the younger generation who grew up under Reagan and Clinton were most likely to see Democrats as the party of fiscal discipline, and the Republicans as the party of out-of-control spending.

All this poll confirms is that the Republicans, over the long term, are really, really screwed.

by Kal 2007-07-28 11:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Republican Brand Officially Crashes Among Youn

Interesting how Clinton does better than Obama among African Americans and Obama does better than Clinton among White people... What's up with that?

by umcpgreg 2007-07-28 11:44AM | 0 recs
another interesting tidbitds

Have you guys noticed another interesting internals? This poll actually includes cellphone only users, there's no difference between them and the landline users.

This pretty much debunks the cellphone polling myth manufactured by Obama supporters.

by areyouready 2007-07-28 11:58AM | 0 recs
Crashes Among Young Voters

Kids are coming out Liberal at a 2-1 ratio.  Republicans need to evolve or die already.  

by JeremiahTheMessiah 2007-07-28 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Republican Brand Officially Crashes Among Youn

I noticed that in their polling sample, they included telephone responses with responses over the internet and over cell phones too. I don't recall the exact percentages, but it was about 50-25-25 percent each.

by Jerome Armstrong 2007-07-28 04:02PM | 0 recs
Look at the gun issue.

The Rx for Dems winning in this country - especially in rural areas and the South - is to be liberal on every issue, except for so-called gun control.

by jgarcia 2007-07-28 06:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Look at the gun issue.

the biggest mistake they could make is to think their is some magical formula for winning.

by bruh21 2007-07-28 07:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Republican Brand Officially Crashes Among Youn

No one should be surprised. The Bush Administration and the GOP has so aggressively driven the next generation into a hole that it's no wonder why the youth wants nothing to do with them.

by kupo 2007-07-28 09:28PM | 0 recs

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