Thompson Moves Up, McCain Drops To Fourth In New National Poll

Does McCain's numbers, as they spiral downward, remind you of Joe Lieberman last cycle? It sure looks like Thompson is going to move right into contender status. The in-trade numbers of the top four (as if they are leading indicators) are: Giuliani 25, McCain 18, Thompson 25, Romney 23. And it appears that Gingrich, with Thompson getting in, has no opening at all (unless Thompson really stumbles). Jerome

In a new national poll from Insider Advantage potential GOP candidate Fred Thompson has moved up with second place and Sen. John McCain has dropped to fourth.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads in firthst place and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is in third place. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has moved up to fifth place which is apparently the highest showing he has had so far in a national poll.

Rudy Giuliani - 28%
Fred Thompson -19%
Mitt Romney 17%
John McCain -16%
Mike Huckabee- 4%
Sam Brownback -3%
Duncan Hunter- 2%
Ron Paul - 2%
Jim Gilmore - 1%

McCain, who was long the GOP frontrunner, has faced declining support in various national polls as Giuliani and Romney started to momentum and then more recently with the prospect that Fred Thompson would enter the race.

Table With Trend Lines yId=659

Tags: 2008 elections, GOP, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani (all tags)



McCain Drops

My guess?  McCain doesn't make it through the summer.  Fred Thompson's entrance into the race during this final month of Q2--a month where McCain HAD to show strength--will be the death knell for Senator McCain.  And that Iraq thing isn't helping either.

Plus, conservatives just don't trust him.

by Vox Populi 2007-06-02 07:48PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Drops

I would not be surprised to see Thompson in 1st very quickly after he announces.

by robliberal 2007-06-02 07:53PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Drops

I would be.  I think he'll be in second, but Rudy will be a tough nut to overtake, and I have a gut feeling McCain and Romney will both focus on Thompson for the next couple months.  Rudy will still be sitting on his laurels.

by Vox Populi 2007-06-02 07:57PM | 0 recs
you mean nationally?

Maybe. I think Romney's lead in NH will be hard to overcome, though. In Iowa I sense a lot of unease about all the GOP candidates. It is hard to figure how Fred Thompson would scramble things. I don't think he would catapult to first place without spending some time here, though.

On Wednesday I was talking with a Republican suburban mom, probably late 30s, who was telling me she liked Rudy (although her Republican husband doesn't), but she is really hoping that Gingrich will get in the race. Please, please let that happen!

by desmoinesdem 2007-06-02 09:07PM | 0 recs
we should have started google-bombing

Fred Thompson months ago. Probably with an article about the beat-up red pickup he used to pretend to drive around during his first Senate race.

It is sweet to see McCain tanking. We are lucky that he mostly did it to himself--stupid Washington Democrats were slow to wake up to the fact that bragging about how they agreed with McCain was not in their interests.

by desmoinesdem 2007-06-02 09:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Thompson Moves Up, McCain Drops To Fourth In N

Thompson doesn't have a chance.  What does he bring to the table?  Anything?

He's the Wes Clark for the GOP 2008, except without any of the things that made Clark a unique and good candidate.  All Thompson has going for him is some witty comments and the ability to look "tough" without actually having anything to support it.

I will be shocked if he is ever above 10% in the polls after the end of the summer.

by Baldrick 2007-06-02 09:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Thompson Moves Up, McCain Drops To Fourth In N

I think it will depend on whether the GOP movers and shakers get behind him. They have been wanting someone else to enter the race since they have not been too satisfied with the top 3.

by robliberal 2007-06-03 07:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Thompson Moves Up

Thompson is an intriguing candidate.  Of course, some of the ascent can be attributed to the current media buzz.    

This line in the analysis caught my eye:

"Thompson's greatest strength appeared to be among those that were 65 and older and male."

That is money in the bank right there.  Seniors make up a huge share of primary and caucus voters, those over 55 years of age make up over 50% of primaries and 60% of caucuses.  If he is strong in the senior demographic, he is going to be a force to be reckoned with.

by georgep 2007-06-02 11:29PM | 0 recs
Statistically a three way tie for second

but not happy news for McCain either way

by IVR Polls 2007-06-03 01:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Thompson Moves Up, McCain Drops

Wow, it is interesting to see how quickly Thompson came into his own with the polls.  I guess it's really no surprise since had like 57% of Repubs being somewhat dissatisfied with the field.  This was pre-Thompson announcement.  I think anything can happen, but I am feeling pretty good right now about the Dems chance for victory in the 2008.

by Kingstongirl 2007-06-03 01:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Thompson Moves Up, McCain Drops To

Well, so much for watching reruns of Law and Order. I guess they will have to pull them off the air.

This guy is the exact type of idiot that the rank-and-file RepubliKans can get behind. Frankly, I thought it would be Huckabee (Good personal story, likeable, and complete whack job).

Plain and simple, Thompson scares me with his chances in the general. R's have proven again and again there ability to support an idiot that says the right things....

by benjamink 2007-06-03 02:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Thompson Moves Up, McCain Drops To Fourth In N

Thompson's going to remain a leading contender. A lot of MyDD posters think his issue positions will matter. Well, they don't. If a Repub candidate looks presidential, talks tough, and promises tax breaks and military spending, he's golden. Doesn't matter if he has a brain or the inclination to use it.

Thompson's divorce, womanizing and abortion flip-flops, can all be finessed and soft-pedaled with enough corporate media adulation and coverup.

by billybob 2007-06-03 02:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Thompson Moves Up, McCain Drops To Fourth In N

That's not why I think he's a loser. He is because he looks like Elmer Fudd at age 80.

by Jerome Armstrong 2007-06-03 03:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Thompson Moves Up, McCain Drops To Fourth In N

Yeah well... a little botox, eyebag surgery and pancake makeup can do wonders.

by billybob 2007-06-03 04:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Thompson Moves Up, McCain Drops To Fourth In N

To Republicans he will look as good as Mitt Romey by election day.

by robliberal 2007-06-03 04:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Thompson Moves Up, McCain Drops To Fourth In N

I offer you two images:

That is not the next President and First Lady.

by Jerome Armstrong 2007-06-03 04:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Thompson Moves Up, McCain Drops To Fourth In N

Does she come with the Lincoln bedroom?

by billybob 2007-06-03 05:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Thompson Moves Up, McCain Drops To Fourth In N

The second pic might be a good idea for a new reality show though.

by robliberal 2007-06-03 08:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Thompson Moves Up, McCain Drops To Fourth In N

I think if McCain had distanced himself from Bush at the same time other Republicans started to do so and taken a more moderate position on Iraq he would likely still be at the top of the polls.

by robliberal 2007-06-03 03:57PM | 0 recs

I hope Thompson gets the nomination. He will get crushed in the general Why? Because he has no vision other than rehashed Reaganisms, no plans for the country (even bad ones), has no work ethic that will keep his aging soul going on the long campaign road, and he'll piss off Democrats and Independents enough to rally against him. He's the George W. Bush candidate, which is why the wingnuts love him. The 30 percenters believe that if only Bush were more articulate and media savvy he'd be doing better. They really do think that. Well, they'll get their opportunity with Fred Cheney Thompson, the neocon's neocon.  If ever there was candidate with less than meets the eye, it's Fred.

by elrod 2007-06-03 04:46PM | 0 recs
why is Fred Thompson catching on?

how does it make sense?

by Carl Nyberg 2007-06-03 05:28PM | 0 recs
Re: why is Fred Thompson catching on?

The GOP has a weak field who is not very popular with the base which gives Fred Thompson an opening.

by robliberal 2007-06-03 08:48PM | 0 recs

I honestly think that Fred Thompson is doing well in the polls because "Fred Thompson" sounds like a nice, normal presidential name.  If a "John Wolf"or "Mike Harrison" were polled, they'd garner a good deal of support too.  I think people would recognize (tho not necessarily be able to identify by name) Fred Thompson if shown a picture, but that's obviously not how polls work.

The reason I think this is, among other things, a recent CBS/NYT fav/unfav poll, where they didn't appear to push people to choose one or the other.  In it, the only candidate who had a higher fav or unfav than "don't know/undecided" was Hillary.  For everyone else, "don't know" won.  This tells me that, at least on the national level, people aren't paying attention yet.  

The numbers, for reference (Name: FAV, UNFAV, DK/UN)
Clinton: 38, 42, 20
Obama, 34, 21, 45
Giuliani: 34, 25, 41
Edwards: 30, 28, 42
McCain: 23. 30, 47
Romney: 14, 16, 70

by alydar 2007-06-03 05:54PM | 0 recs
Watch out for FT

If FT can do well in any Rep debates he will win that nomination and punish Hillary in the finals.

by Uncle Remus 2007-06-03 06:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Thompson Moves Up, McCain Drops To Fourth In N

A few years ago, I read some article that had a comment from Grover Norquist about who he was keeping an eye on for 2008. One of the names mentioned was South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford. I think I saw him mentioned one or twice as a possible vice presidential contender for one of the top three  Republicans, but other than that, I've heard nothing about him since.

There's certainly a general unhappiness with the current crop. That's why Fred Thompson has an opening. There are some Republicans out there who have been doing good jobs, at least according to the voters in their states, who believe in a traditional Republican platform, and who aren't automatically tied to the failures of the Bush administration, yet none of these people seem to be running. Why is that? The chances for us look good in 2008, many agree, but is it really that much of a closed case already?

by bjaklitsch 2007-06-05 10:43PM | 0 recs


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