Rudy's Swing State Strength
by Todd Beeton, Wed Jun 27, 2007 at 01:21:34 PM EDT
Quinnipiac has some interesting polls out of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, which show that, while Rudy is slipping among GOP primary voters in these states, he remains extremely strong in head-to-head general election match-ups.
In all three states, Fred Thompson has ascended to second place within 6-8 points of Giuliani. Additionally, contrary to early state trends, McCain is still relatively strong in these states (3rd place in FL & OH and tied for 2nd in PA,) while Romney is in either 4th or 5th (behind Gingrich) so the head-to-head numbers don't include Romney (only top 3 were polled.) On the Democratic side, since Gore was included in the polling, Edwards is relegated to 4th place in these states and similarly was left out of the head-to-head match-ups.
As you would expect from these states, which conventional wisdom says are trending blue, the Democrats excel in the head-to-head match-ups against McCain (although he and Obama are tied in Florida) and Thompson. Giuliani on the other hand beats Obama in all three (although it's very close in OH & PA) and the best Clinton can do against him is tie in OH & PA.
While Giuliani's strength in these states should perhaps not be terribly surprising, what with the NYC transplant population in FL and PA's proximity to New York, another statistic from the poll seems to tell the tale: his remarkably high favorability ratings (and accompanying low unfavorable marks.)
Giuliani beats Clinton 48 - 42 percent, compared to a 47 - 42 percent Giuliani lead June 7
Giuliani tops Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 47 - 39 percent
Clinton ties Giuliani 43 - 43 percent, compared to May 16 when Giuliani led 47 - 43 percent
Giuliani gets 42 percent to Obama's 40 percent
Giuliani and Clinton are tied 45 - 45 percent, compared to a 47 - 43 percent Giuliani lead May 31.
Giuliani gets 44 percent to Obama's 43 percent
Nationally, a similar dynamic exists. Even after a couple of bad weeks for Giuliani, the most recent CNN/Opinion Research poll (June 22-24) gives him a ridiculously strong favorable/unfavorable rating of 58/27. In the same poll, Clinton is at 51/44. Similarly, Rasmussen has Rudy at a more down to earth 53/40 vs. Clinton's 49/48. A lot is made of Clinton's high negatives but not enough is said about Rudy' still high positives, which could end up being the Republicans' secret weapon in the general if he gets the nomination.