Dems Hold Wide Generic Congressional Ballot Lead in GOP-Leaning Poll

It was a little over a year ago that my concerns over the Republican lean of Rasmussen Reports led me to generally refrain from posting their polls on this site. To get an idea of the impetus of this move, take a look at this graph put together by Professor Charles Franklin detailing how although Rasmussen's polling tended to that point to track with other national polling in trends, in actual numbers Rasmussen yielded a Bush approval rating fully 3-4 points higher than that of the composite of all other national polling.

Fast forward to this year. Professor Franklin's best estimate of President Bush's approval rating from the available national polling pegs the number at 29.1 percent, down about 5 points over the last two months. But where does Rasmussen put the President? According to the pollster's latest numbers, 37 percent of "likely voters" approve of the job the President is doing -- a number significantly higher than that of the consensus among almost every other national pollster. What's worse, Rasmussen does not pick up the trend viewed by other pollsters, with the President's approval rating down just 2 points from where it was across the month of April.

One might argue that the difference in numbers lies not in a Republican bias but rather in the fact that Rasmussen is polling likely voters rather than registered voters or adults. However, that does not account for the fact that Rasmussen is intentionally skewing its numbers to make Congress' approval rating appear to be much lower than that of the President by asking an unbalanced four-point question (excellent, good, fair, poor) for Congress and a balanced four-point question (strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove) of the President. (Professor Franklin explains elsewhere that the unbalanced question can yield lower numbers than the more balanced one.

Yet despite all of this (or perhaps in spite of it), I'd like to pass on a new poll from Rasmussen gauging likely voters' views towards the 2008 elections -- specifically the generic congressional ballot question. Even with the lean of Rasmussen Reports, Democrats still hold a 12-point lead on the question of whether likely voters would prefer to elect a Democratic or Republican Congress next fall. And all of this comes even while Rasmussen inflates the support for third party candidates, pegging their support at 6 points -- fully 70 percent higher than it has been over the last two decades or so and more than twice what it's been in either of the last two elections. If the Democrats hold this large of a lead even with all of that, it seems to me that they are in an outstanding position more than a quarter of the way to the 2008 elections.

Tags: Generic Congressional Ballot, House 2008, Rasmussen Reports, Senate 2008 (all tags)

Comments

13 Comments

Re: Dems Hold Wide Generic

actually if you look at rassmussen's numbers For the month of June, the targets are 36.7% Democrat, 31.1% Republican, and 32.2% Unaffiliated with Either Major Party

that is what creates the differential in the polls, and until the last two day the numbers were consistant with the 5 point drop

June 34 63

May
 36 61

Apr
 39 59

by orin76 2007-06-26 06:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Hold Wide Generic

Taking a look and just averaging the results of the last two weeks, the President's approval rating is 34.9 percent in Rasmussen -- about a 4-point drop, which isn't too different from the 5-point drop found in other polling. That said, Rasmussen is still more than 5 points above the national average.

by Jonathan Singer 2007-06-26 06:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Hold Wide Generic Congressional Ballot Le

We'll see what happens after the immigration debacle....

although many of the dem ammendments are getting passed, and are making me think that the bill might not actually be so bad after all.

Thanks,

Mike

by lordmikethegreat 2007-06-26 07:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Hold Wide Generic Congressional Ballot Le

are you kidding? the republicans are stuck in a rock and a hard place on this one. They can either bow to the businesses and tell their racist base to go fuck themselves and be broken by their lack of support or they can tell the corporations "too bad." and be broken by their lack of money. They're fucked either way. It's beautiful. Everything is coming apart at the seems for them just like that.

by fireinthedawn 2007-06-28 01:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Hold Wide Generic Congressional Ballot Le

need I mention that the democratic amendments are sure to not air in the favor of business instead of the public because we're the good guys?

by fireinthedawn 2007-06-28 01:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Hold Wide Generic Congressional Ballot Le

seams. rather.

by fireinthedawn 2007-06-28 01:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Hold Wide Generic

I think the major difference is in how they poll people if you are polling 31.1% republican they start off with a between a (66%) 21% and (72%) 23% approval rate to start with and between 7% (22%) and 9% (33%)  from ind 32.2%  and 3% (8%)  and 5% (12%) from D 36.7%

so you send up with between 31 and 37 as a metholoGY

R = 31.1%  66% 21% AND 72% = 23%
iND =32.2% 22% =7%  and 33% =  9%
D
  36.7% 8%  = 3% amd 12% =  5%

   total range 31 to         37%

by orin76 2007-06-26 07:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Hold Wide Generic

and yes likely voting republicans still support bush in those numbers  facts mean little to they they take everything on faith unless it somehow interfers with something they want to do

by orin76 2007-06-26 07:25PM | 0 recs
Rasmussen: Insufficient Evidence to Indict

I believe Rasmussen's positive skew on approval is due to the 4 choices rather than the customary 2.

This doesn't strike me as bias, but a different, legitimate method, that will float anybody up a few points. You're right to exclude it from averages as, since the results are demonstrably different, the question is ipso facto different. That alone should not condemn the pollster.

The more disingenuous behavior is to act like RealClearPolitics, who include the Rasmussen poll in their average, and thus always float the prez 1 or 2 points.

by JoeFelice 2007-06-27 11:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Hold Wide Generic

the other issue is that rassmussen insists on having a specific makeup in the polling. Which other pollsters don't

by orin76 2007-06-27 02:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Hold Wide Generic Congressional Ballot Le

Do these people seriously not have an interest in knowing what the nation thinks? Do they not have an employee that notices this shit? A lot of people thought I was batshit in 2006 for telling them it was going to be a tsunami.  Someone should really tell them to put a note on there that their polls are not scientific. It's like they delight in being able to fine tune things into this kind of bullshit. The problem is it's still the !@#$ing republicans dragging down the approval number in congress and they don't seem to get that. Why don't they just say "Here at pure crap polling with make a totally unprofessional product. You shouldn't buy our stuff because we'll only tell you what republicans want to hear instead of reality so we're totally inviable as pollster." no, it's not just the greed that's started to piss me off anymore. It's the total lack of any effort to be smart. They just half ass everything because it saves them money to everywhere you go so much that I'm willing to pay a premium on anything that says "made like they used to." to me.

by fireinthedawn 2007-06-28 12:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Hold Wide Generic Congressional Ballot Le

preempt: I'll give you that a lot of likely voters see the democrats as impotent and we're still polling under 50. But, For the love of god they're polling under 30.

by fireinthedawn 2007-06-28 12:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Hold Wide Generic

alot of people on the left are angry at congress because they haven't ended the iraq war. That they are heming and hawing and afraid to do it. That's what drew down the Democratic numbers, and until they do the numbers will be down.

by orin76 2007-06-28 01:58PM | 0 recs

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