Democratic, Republican Nominations At A Glance, June 24th
by Chris Bowers, Sun Jun 24, 2007 at 12:11:05 PM EDT
State polls are all May 4--June 24. Last update: June 24, 4:10 pm eastern
|State||Est. Date||# Polls||Clinton||Obama||Edwards||Richardson|
|Net Avail Cash||Mar 31||Q1||$23.4M||$17.7M||$9.6M||$5.0M|
|New Hampshire||Jan 15||5||33.6%||20.6%||16.0%||9.4%|
|South Carolina||Jan 22||5||29.2%||27.6%||16.8%||--|
It's all about Iowa. If Clinton were to win Iowa, she will probably run the table. She probably would even be OK if she finishes in second in Iowa, as long as Obama isn't the winner. But what happens if she finishes third, or even fourth in the state? Will it be enough to wipe out her lead in New Hampshire? That is a difficult question to answer. The primary calendar remains another huge question mark. Iowa and New Hampshire might move as much as one full month before Nevada, which changes the strategic landscape entirely. Richardson's continued rise, as he now surpasses the 5% threshold even in Florida, is also interesting.
Republican Nomination, At a Glance, June 24
State polls are all May 30--June 24. Last update: June 24, 4:10 pm eastern
|State||Est. Date||# Polls||Giuliani||Romney||F. Thompson||McCain|
|Net Avail Cash||Mar 31||Q1||$9.7M||$9.1M||--||$2.6M|
|New Hampshire||Jan 15||3||17.7%||27.3%||10.7%||17.7%|
|South Carolina||Jan 22||2||17.5%||13.5%||26.0%||11.0%|
For Republicans, I have removed all state polls that were conducted before Thompson's announcement. His entrance represents a major watershed in the Republican nomination campaign that renders all pre-Thompson polls meaningless. As far as the horserace goes, I know I have already written it several times, but since it feels so good, I'll write it again anyway: McCain is finished. His best showing is a tie for second in New Hampshire, where he trails Romney by almost ten points. The other three, Giuliani, Romney and Thompson, are very difficult to separate right now, although neither the trends nor the early state polls favor Giuliani. Can Giuliani survive poor early state showings and still do well in both Florida and on February 5th,, or will he goes the way of McCain, simply with more lag time? Can Romney translate strong early state showings into big time results on February 5th, or will he start to fade now that Thompson is a real competitor for the anti-McCain / Giuliani vote? Will Thompson continue to rise, and eventually wipe the other candidates away, or will he stagnate in the early states, and remain a regional (Southern and Mountain West) candidate? Right now, this is one helluva horserace, with far more twists and turns than the Democratic side of the campaign.
- Last week's results.
- National polling averages taken from Pollster.com. All early state polls can also be found at Pollster.com.
- For Democrats, early state polls that only include Clinton, Edwards and Obama in the questions were not included. This means one Florida poll and one New Hampshire poll conducted in the May 4-June 24 window were not included.
- For Democrats, early state polls that include Gore in the question were only included when Gore-less results were unavailable. One Florida poll included Gore.
- "Net Available Cash" equals cash on hand minus debts minus amount raised for general election. More information can be found at Open Secrets.
- Dates for primaries are personal estimations, and subject to change. Right now, I believe South Carolina, New Hampshire, and Iowa will all move up from their current dates.
- February 5th is not actually a national primary, but due to the large number of states holding nomination events on that date, national polls are used as a placeholder.