TBA Recap

The GQR poll results are going to be announced shortly from the Straw Poll taken at the TBA conference. I expect Obama to win with a good plurality (like 40 percent). Barack's speech was powerful and full of fire. I would think it was his stump speech, as he was in full control, energizing the crowd. Anyone that came for "the speech" didn't go away empty-handed.

The video of Richardson is up on YouTube. I thought his was a great speech too, and that the distinctions he laid out showed he's winning to start fighting his way into the top-tier. Not as great as Obama, but probably exceeded his expectations further. I voted, based on the speeches, for Richardson and Obama. Richardson, cause I think he was the most substantive, and Obama for getting the best reception.

Edwards didn't give a spellbinding stump speech, it was OK, and had a few moments, but the crowd did thin out a bit, and wasn't near as loud. I'll be interested to see if the contrast with Obama, who hit all the right notes at every right tempo, parlays into a wide margin between Edwards and Obama in the straw poll results, or not. Interestingly, I sat next to a United Steelworker and his wife, both of whom thought Obama gave the best speech of the two, but were still Edwards supporters.

I missed Clinton this AM; not surprisingly she was boo'd again this year, because she was blaming the Iraqi gov't for the failures in Iraq (instead of Bush). I wonder if Clinton thought she would get out of being boo'd by going so early on the third moment, but apparently not.

This wasn't Clinton's crowd, and the contrast between the DNC Winter meetings and the TBA conference, same place same hall & much different audience, four months apart, couldn't have been wider. This poll is going to tell us whom the progressive activists in audience at TBA --a lot of them either based in DC or working with political advocacy groups aligned with the Democratic Party-- prefer.

Update [2007-6-20 15:30:43 by Jerome Armstrong]: The results are in, on Politico and the pdf doc, Obama with 29 and Edwards with 26; Clinton not too far behind with 17 percent. If you total up the first and second place votes, Obama and Edwards have 59 and 54 percent total. But looking into the polls demographics, it shows that of those that voted, 24% were aged 18-24. fwiw, I didn't get the sense that a quarter of the actual attendees to the multiple events were that young.

I sure would like to see the breakdown by age of how the attendees voted.

Tags: Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, John Edwards (all tags)

Comments

24 Comments

Re: TBA Recap

The talking point of blaming it all on the feckless Iraqi government seems like it's been focus-grouped or something.  I remember Vilsack trotting out the same line on the Daily Show and it pissed me off then too.  However, to be candid, if that's the useful fiction that helps us get out of Iraq, I can live with it.  But it's truly lame to invade a country, subjecting them to all kinds of depredations, and then point the finger at them when they don't find a magic political solution to the stressful situation you've put them in.

It's nice that Hillary doesn't mind engaging with this crowd, though.  She gets some grief for not getting involved in the blogosphere, but really, appearing at this conference is the same thing.  She may not be my candidate, but I do appreciate her asking for my vote.  And this incident suggests that maybe she won't spend her entire Presidency inside a pre-screened bubble like Bush has.

by Steve M 2007-06-20 11:04AM | 0 recs
Results

are in, Obama got 29, Edwards 26. Hillary did pretty well too 17.

Pretty great for Edwards considering that according to Politico the Obama campaigned packed the place with its supporters.

http://www.politico.com/pdf/PPM44_070620 results.pdf

by david mizner 2007-06-20 11:14AM | 0 recs
strong Hillary showing

If these numbers are correct, it just shows you how strong Hillary is and how weak those two 'progressive' candidates are even among their friendly audience.

by maoasada 2007-06-20 11:22AM | 0 recs
These results

should be taken with a grain of salt. Here's Ben Smith on how the Obama campaign stacked the deck in its favor:

One more sign that Take Back America really is
playing the role of CPAC on the left (complete with
straw poll, which isn't interesting just because
Politico is administering it): The Obama campaign,
CPAC-style, is packing the house with its supporters.

As I mentioned in yesterday's story, Obama staffer
Hans Reimer is offering, via Facebook, free tickets to
the conference, which run to $100 ($40 for students)
at the door.

by david mizner 2007-06-20 11:24AM | 0 recs
Here's the link on Obama giving tix away

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0 607/Packing_the_house.html

Call this good politics if you want, just don't call it an accurate reflection of how much support each candidate has.

by david mizner 2007-06-20 11:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Take The Politico with a heap of salt

Why are A list bloggers still using the Politico for anything besides a target of ridicule?

Using The Politico's poll results means that you are giving them more credit than a rightwing shillhouse like that deserves.

Here, for an example of what I mean, is The Politico's Ben Smith actually calling Democrats cowards for refusing to participate in the Fox News debate.

Media Matters has much, much more on this Albritton-funded rightwing zombie-lie factory.

Screw the Politico, no progressive blogger should link to them except to scorn them.

by justathought 2007-06-20 12:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Take The Politico with a heap of salt

GQR did the poll.

by Jerome Armstrong 2007-06-20 01:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Take The Politico with a heap of salt

boy, is my face red?

Well, it was.

thanks for the info.

by justathought 2007-06-20 08:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Here's the link on Obama giving tix away

supporters who were given free tickets were not allowed to vote. you had to be a member to vote.

so you couldn't stack the deck other than trying to sway voters with loud applause for your speech.

by dpg220 2007-06-21 06:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Results

Do you know how many kids actually got in through free tickets from Obama?

by Max Fletcher 2007-06-20 12:14PM | 0 recs
Have you heard

at all whether the Obama campaign was giving tickets away through Facebook?  Is there any truth to that?  Was it a pro-Obama audience to start with?  

by littafi 2007-06-20 11:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Have you heard

I was sitting in the center of the middle of the lower part of the hall, right in front of the media. There were a lot of Obama fans off of the seats, around the ring of the seats, but I don't know that they had tickets to the event or not, it's pretty easy to just walk right in-- so I don't know (kinda doubt it) if they were able to vote either.

by Jerome Armstrong 2007-06-20 11:09AM | 0 recs
How does one qualify to vote?

Havent seen any information o this.

by okamichan13 2007-06-20 12:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Have you heard

From Ben Smith on June 18:

One more sign that Take Back America really is playing the role of CPAC on the left (complete with straw poll, which isn't interesting just because Politico is administering it): The Obama campaign, CPAC-style, is packing the house with its supporters.

As I mentioned in yesterday's story, Obama staffer Hans Reimer is offering, via Facebook, free tickets to the conference, which run to $100 ($40 for students) at the door.

He's expected to be competing primarily with John Edwards for the support of the activist crowd; though Hillary is certainly less likely to be booed this year, and not only because she's speaking at 8:00 a.m. Wednesday.

Here's the link over at Facebook:
http://images.politico.com/global/obamat ba.jpg

by edgery 2007-06-20 12:31PM | 0 recs
Re: TBA Recap

Barack Obama wins Politico.com Straw Poll:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/060 7/4573.html

by enarjay 2007-06-20 11:16AM | 0 recs
Re: TBA Recap

not 40%, Edwards still did pretty well.

by enarjay 2007-06-20 11:16AM | 0 recs
Re: TBA Recap

I understand that the majority of second place choices from Edwards went to Obama and vice versa, Factoring those choices in they stated the results as:

Obama 30
Edwards 28
Clinton 16

by BDM 2007-06-20 11:24AM | 0 recs
Re: TBA Recap

Actually it was 29 and 26--a small victory for Obama given his "terrific" speech and its packing the house.

by david mizner 2007-06-20 11:26AM | 0 recs
Re: TBA Recap

I think every campaign tried to pack their speeches with supporters.  Even Hillary had some this morning.

by enarjay 2007-06-20 11:28AM | 0 recs
Re: TBA Recap

those were the correct second place totals

by Max Fletcher 2007-06-20 12:12PM | 0 recs
Packing the House?
Packing the House?
is there any evidence that those tickets entitled people to vote.  CPAC was clearly involved by Romney money, This is more doubtful.
by Democraticavenger 2007-06-20 11:29AM | 0 recs
Cant find anything on

how people are qualified to vote. But I would assume (see edgery's link above) the Obama campaign wouldnt pay to get people in for no reason.

by okamichan13 2007-06-20 12:33PM | 0 recs
Re: TBA Recap

The demographic is weird, weren't there on-line votes too?  That could have skewed both the demo and the results.

BTW, Ezra and Matt Yglesias, who lean a bit more to the wonky side, had a different evaluation of the relative strength of the speeches.  So they could have been more in line with their fellow DC wonks.

by MassEyesandEars 2007-06-20 11:48AM | 0 recs
Re: TBA Recap

Not surprised that 24% are that young.  I also would not be surprised if 90% (or even more) were white.  This is the problem.  Increasingly the Democratic Party's base voters are non-white.  Whereas, the prog netroots are overwhelmningly white.  

This is what people on the blogs don't understand and why Hillary is continuing to get all this support.  A LOT of HRC's supporters in the country do not identify as white.

by jgarcia 2007-06-20 12:40PM | 0 recs

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