On Republicans 08

Let's talk about the Republicans. What's the state of 2008's nomination for them? I guess the CW would be that Giuliani still has the lead, that McCain had stopped his slipping, that Romney is still below, that the movement conservatives are still waiting for their candidate--Thompson more than Gingrich now.

Here's the latest national poll:




And here's a poll from Alabama, one of the early primaries:

Among 402 likely GOP primary voters surveyed by phone, 23 percent said they would most likely back McCain, who represents Arizona, while 22 percent favored Giuliani, a one-time federal prosecutor who led New York City for eight years.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney garnered 12 percent, followed by two prospective contenders who are still weighing whether to get into the 2008 race. Former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee had 10 percent, while 7 percent of respondents opted for former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia.

I went looking inside Gallup's Inside the Republican Vote for President poll for clues. It's clear, that Giuliani's support ois soft. If the vote were today, he would not as strong as is his polling, and neither is McCain. The ideological conservatives are not backing either of those two in as strong of numbers as are "moderate" Republicans (how many of those exist?) or Independents that lean Republican (and don't vote in primaries).  


Everytime I've went around the rightwing blogosphere looking at who they are chatting about, it's Fred Thompson. Gallup, among the self-described conservative voters has Thompson in a solid third nationally, and in the South, he's running second. Furthermore, Giuliani's support is strongest among the 18-29 year-olds. I don't believe it's accurate any longer to say that the 18-29 year-olds don't vote, because the last two cycles have shown a reversal of that trend--they do vote... but in primaries?  That's hypothetical at best, especially because of the lack of party identification. And heck, if Thompson runs, he'll probably outshine Giuliani among the GOP youth too.


All signs appear pointed to Thompson declaring this summer. Mike Allen is beginning to roll out the potential kinks of his potential campaign: all those women-- 'hell ya' says Fred. HBO is pumping up big promo dollars behind the upcoming movie 'Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee' (featuring Thompson as President Ulysses Grant). Thompson is kicking butt on the rightwing blogger polls, and his insiders are leaking that they will run a techno-pr campaign, ala the Obama of the right. The roll-out is scheduled to begin in July, my guess is the 4th. The media whores are gonna love this one.

Tags: Fred Thompson, Republican 2008 (all tags)

Comments

32 Comments

Re: On Republicans 08

Romney must have more money than he knows what to do with. I saw a TV ad for him last night here in Pennsylvania.

And "a Republican governor who turned around a Democratic state" isn't credible once people--especially Libertarians and Liberals--get a look at the universal health insurance plan that's the highlight of his term.

by joyful alternative 2007-05-01 06:03AM | 0 recs
time to google-bomb Fred Thompson

I've been saying this for the past few weeks. We need to start google-bombing him well before he declares, because a lot of people will be looking him up this summer.

Someone other than "Rudy McRomney" is going to be the GOP nominee. The conservative blogs in Iowa reveal great discomfort with the current field.

by desmoinesdem 2007-05-01 06:12AM | 0 recs
Re: time to google-bomb Fred Thompson

What do you think of this as a target article?

by BingoL 2007-05-01 07:35AM | 0 recs
Re: time to google-bomb Fred Thompson


done:

http://dean2004.blogspot.com/2007/05/fre d-thompson.html

by azizhp 2007-05-01 07:50AM | 0 recs
Fred Thompson

Fred Thompson: The lobbyist that brought you the Savings and Loan Crisis

by IVR Polls 2007-05-01 07:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Fred Thompson

No one remembers the S&L crisis.  I've had to explain it about three times in the past year.  And to relatively informed voters.  It holds less traction than the Iran-Contra affair.

by Valatan 2007-05-01 01:40PM | 0 recs
Re: On Republicans 08

I think many R's are dying for a white horse, and Fred looks well cast for the role.   I wouldn't be surprised if he were to gallop into first place within a month of his announcement and stay there.  

Fortunately, he really is pretty dull.   He has a certain gruff charm, but I cannot see him generating much true enthusiasm, not even up to the level that GWB managed in 2000.     He is a jowly old man, an improved Bob Dole.   'Old' is not good right now, I think.

Moreover, there were some hints that he is going to run a policy-centric campaign; he was talking about his willingness to take on Social Security and entitlements.    To that I would say,  yes, please do run a Mondale/Dole/Kerry/Gore muddled message race.     Fred's also pro-Iraq war...currently....if he doesn't change that by his announcement, he'll stick with that.   Another major negative for him.

He matches up poorly against Edwards or Obama (new vs. old, change vs. continuity)....he might be the best match up they have against Hillary given her poll negatives, her (IMO) insider-ness - Fred can define himself as an outsider against her.    (Reason number #3464349 why she is not the strongest D nominee.)

by Andmoreagain 2007-05-01 06:13AM | 0 recs
Re: On Republicans 08

Seriously, what the hell did Fred Thompson ever do that was so great? He seems like a run-of-the-mill conservative who never stood out for much of anything. If that's the best the GOP has, that's really freakin' pathetic.

by PsiFighter37 2007-05-01 06:13AM | 0 recs
Re: On Republicans 08

Well, Thompson's foreign policy credentials are backed up by his acting in Hunt For Red October.  

by LionelEHutz 2007-05-01 06:54AM | 0 recs
Re: On Republicans 08

"Yuri, come now.  You've lost another submarine?"

by DrFrankLives 2007-05-01 08:03AM | 0 recs
Re: On Republicans 08

He gave a stern look of disapproval to Nick Nolte in Cape Fear when Nolte admitting to burying a report that would have kept De Niro out of jail.

I think Fred Thompson does a good job in film and TV.  That's why he may end up having a lot of mo'.  Republican primary voters have a history of voting for movie stars.

by RickD 2007-05-01 09:00AM | 0 recs
Re: On Republicans 08

Seriously, what the hell did Fred Thompson ever do that was so great? He seems like a run-of-the-mill conservative

I think that given the rest of the Republican field right now, actually qualifying as a mere run-of-the-mill conservative is by itself a great strength.

Everybody else running right now isn't credibly conservative (Romney, Giuliani) or isn't run-of-the-mill (Gingrich, Brownback) or both (McCain).

by Silent sound 2007-05-01 11:20AM | 0 recs
Re: On Republicans 08

People discounted Reagan because he was in absurd stupid movies.  Then everyone got royally screwed by him.  Don't underestimate the power of a candidate that the voters already 'trust.'

I've always thought that Martin Sheen would be a very hard candidate to beat.

by Valatan 2007-05-01 01:44PM | 0 recs
Why Jim Webb was important

The fact that there is no 'movement' conservative candidate at the moment can be directly attributed to Jim Webb and all those who got him elected. Had George Allen been re-elected, I have no doubt in my mind that he would be running for president at this moment, and he would either be the frontrunner or closing fast. The man was experienced enough to be credible, conservative enough to outflank the big three, and young enough to make McCain/Thompson look like a dinosaur. Since he got knocked off in the election, the Repubs have no movement candidate, and are divided as a result. So here's to you, progressive movement, you've just split the party of the Hammer.

by 8th District Dem 2007-05-01 06:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Jim Webb was important

I want to take this chance to say once again, thank you, S. R. Siddarth.

by Nina Katarina 2007-05-01 07:01AM | 0 recs
and Mike Stark!

As Steve Gilliard has noted, it was Mike Stark who got Allen on record in front of a bunch of reporters denying he had ever used the N-word.

by desmoinesdem 2007-05-01 08:03AM | 0 recs
Re: On Republicans 08

I wonder if Thompson might end up being an 08' version of Clark 04'; starts strong with lots of excitement and fanfare, gets on out on the trail and never really gains traction. If that scenerio were to play out, I'd put my money on McCain taking the prize. I'm still somewhat curious as to the lack of support for Brownback and Huckabee, as both seem to personify the movement conserative type, if Thompson jumps in and doesn't move much, perhaps these two will get some second looks.

by bjschmid 2007-05-01 06:36AM | 0 recs
Re: On Republicans 08

The tax-cutting types hate Huckabee. As for Brownback, I think that conservatives just don't take his candidacy seriously.

by PsiFighter37 2007-05-01 06:50AM | 0 recs
Re: On Republicans 08

I think the aim has to be to make him the next Cheney: another evil old man.

by Englishlefty 2007-05-01 08:22AM | 0 recs
Love Thompson till he gets nuked
Thompson is either insane or stupid.  Romney will probably be first, maybe followed by McCain, Guilliani is trying to stay above the fray but his annihilation is forthcoming when he commits one of his famous blow-ups.  Bush was able to keep them under wraps but I don't see Guilliani holding back.  Conservatives have their candidate in Brownback or Huckabee but funny thing, even conservatives don't believe "a conservative" can win.  They need another lying Bush conservative that sells himself as a "moderate" when in reality anyone with a functioning brain can see he is a CON-servative in the truest sense.  
Media whores will love Thompson's roll-out, I hope so I hope they build him as high as they can, I hope he becomes a massive money magnet.  And then I will sit back as all that god damn cursed money goes up in smoke.  
The media may have sold us on the stupid war in Iraq, but the jig is up.  They didn't sell us on Terri Shiavo, or the surge, or Plame wasn't really a CIA agent or all the other massive crap the media has tried to peddle through their conservative masters.  
by gasperc 2007-05-01 06:45AM | 0 recs
In 2004 I lost all faith

in the judgement of the American voting public. I am not at all convinced that they won't make the same mistake again. President Thompson? It's certainly possible.

by nerdoff 2007-05-01 06:56AM | 0 recs
Re: On Republicans 08

North Carolina poll by Elon College (highly respected, perhaps best in the South), asked the following last week:

At this time, who are you planning to support for President of the United States? (open ended)

Here are the results:

HILLARY CLINTON    10.4
BARACK OBAMA    9.1
JOHN EDWARDS    8.0
RUDY GUILIANI    5.3
JOHN MCCAIN    1.3
FRED THOMPSON    1.1
MITT ROMNEY    .7
AL GORE    .6
BILL RICHARDSON    .4
NEWT GINGRICH    .2
TOMMY THOMPSON    .2
TOO EARLY TO TELL (v)    26.9
DON T KNOW (v)    30.3
OTHER (v)    4.7
REFUSED (v)    .6

Yes, North Carolina, a state that, despite Dem governor and both legislative houses, has gone R for president since Carter.

by demondeac 2007-05-01 07:27AM | 0 recs
I believe that Romney is the on to watch

He is telegenic and has lots of money. IMO we should start taking him down already now.

My prediction is an Obama vs Romney race, and Obama is going to kick his sorry ass.

by Populism2008 2007-05-01 07:29AM | 0 recs
Re: I believe that Romney is the on to watch

Romney is definitely not the one to watch.  Pundits have shown him nothing but love for a long time and he still has trouble polling above 10%.  

a) he's a Mormon
b) he's the former governor of Massachusetts
c) he's either a liberal or a flip-flopper (in truth the latter)

In terms of competence I think he'd be the best of the bunch.  But there's no way the Republicans are going to nominate him.

McCain's going to be sunk by his support of the war and his history of crossing the aisle to work with Democrats.  I think we have to continue to think of Giuliani as the frontrunner, and Thompson looks like the only person who can catch him.

Why are there no stronger Republican candidates?  The reach of the Bush taint has crippled a lot of potentials.  Bush-friendly Republicans are tainted by the association and Bush-hostile Republicans have had their careers crushed by W. over the past 6 years.  

by RickD 2007-05-01 09:05AM | 0 recs
Pyrrhic win

I love Webb and was glad to see Allen taken down ... BUT, that dimwit would have cakewalked to the GOP nomination and been easy pickings for us in 2008.  Can you imagine this goofball Bush clone on the national stage?  Instead, we are gonna have to take on Senator Fred ... and mark my words, the media whores will prop this joker up like we've never seen before.  He puts out just the kind of Southern-fried gravy-soaked bullshit this press and country eat up.  Fred and his big tough-guy rumbling voice and red pickup truck, against either the Breck Girl with his mansion, a black man with no experience, and a woman!  This will be the sub-text of all coverage.  Sub, hell -- that will be ALL the coverage.  So our win over Allen coiuld bite us ... unless the Dems take down Fred hard and soon and nastily.  His 'womanizing' ain't gonna do it either ... in fact it will help him, because his name isn't Bill Clinton.

by Weefer 2007-05-01 08:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Pyrrhic win

Please don't use the phrase "Breck Girl" to describe Edwards.

Unless your intent is to help Republicans.  

As for experience, Fred Thompson has a total of 8 years of experience in politics.  I think Obama can handle that comparison.  

And if the nominee is Clinton - don't break a sweat.  She'd crush any of the candidates the Republicans have running thus far.  She was clobbering Giuliani in the New York senate race (even as a carpetbagger) before he pulled out to save face.  (Sure he had cancer, but I think he would have stayed in the race if he thought he would win.)

by RickD 2007-05-01 09:11AM | 0 recs
irony, chief

Come on.  That's the frame THEY will use, and already have.

by Weefer 2007-05-01 09:58AM | 0 recs
further

I just read down further and saw your Hillary opinion.  Respectfully and completely disagree.  IMHO, she loses to anyone the other side coughs up.

by Weefer 2007-05-01 09:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Democrats 08

2008 Democrats

Hillary
Obama
Edwards
Richardson
Biden
Dodd
Kucinich
Gravel

Hillary and Obama- top Tier Front runners
Edwards and Richardson- Second Tier Challengers
Biden and Dodd- Third Tier Longshots
Kucinich and Gravel- Fourth Tier- No Chance in hell.

Kucinich/ Gravel- Sharpton/Moseley Braun/Kucinich- November Does Not Count.
Biden/Dodd/Richardson - Gephardt /Lieberman/Graham/Clark- The elder statesman wing of the Democratic party.
Clinton/Obama/Edwards- Kerry/Edwards/Dean-
Activist/Ivy League/Money wing of the Democratic Party.

January 2008
IA
Edwards-40%
Obama- 30%
Clinton- 20%
Other- 10%

NV
Edwards- 40%
Clinton- 30%
Obama- 20%
Other- 10%

NH
Obama- 40%
Clinton- 30%
Edwards   20%
Other- 10%

SC
Obama- 40%
Edwards- 30%
Clinton- 20%
Other- 10%

FL
Hillary 40%
Obama- 30%
Edwards- 20%
Other- 10%

January-  (No Clear Winner)
Hillary wins FL
Obama wins NH and SC
Edwards wins IA and NV

Super Tuesday

Expect Biden,Dodd and Richardson to drop out after Febraury 5 Super Tuesday primary

All three are likely to back Hillary who wins most of the super Tuesday primary states

Obama makes a strong second.
Edwards comes in third place. drop out after the Southern Primary States. .

Hillary puts Obama and Richardson on her VP shortlist. along with Clark,Bayh,Vilsack,and Warner.  

Richardson becomes the runner up

Obama gets selected.

Clinton-Obama- 2008

Republican side.

McCain- Romney- 2008

by nkpolitics 2007-05-01 09:08AM | 0 recs
Re: On Republicans 08

Giuliani is extremely strong.  "Promises" and predictions of his "really soon now" "any moment now" demise seem like wishful thinking, not based on sound reasoning.   If Thompson gets into the game, it gives Gingrich even less traction, and it would create a situation for Romney and McCain where both could easily get lost in the shuffle, making Giuliani look even more like the clear frontrunner.  

IMO Giuliani will be the GOP candidate.  He will be very strong in the Northeast, typically a Democratic bastion.   I'll swim against GT (groupthink) here and state that Clinton would be our best candidate against Giuliani because states like New York and New Jersey are must-keeps for the Democrats.      

by georgep 2007-05-01 10:24AM | 0 recs
Re: On Republicans 08

1. This is one poll-- does anyone know if this is an outlier or this is generally the way Republican polls have been going lately?

2. Assuming this is valid: Am I just imagining things, or does it seem like when the year began Clinton and Giuliani both had sizable leads within their respective parties-- but as the year progressed the polls have shown Clinton's lead steadily decaying and Giuliani's lead steadily increasing?

by Silent sound 2007-05-01 11:29AM | 0 recs
Re: On Republicans 08

I heard a DC beltway pundit literally say that "at least inside the beltway, Duncan Hunter is regarded as a strong and viable candidate."

Ah, yes, that says it all.

peace

by jamesboyce 2007-05-01 11:35AM | 0 recs

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