New Democratic Primary, Senate Approval Polls

I know that I said I was going to try and move my blogging focus away from polls this week, but while sitting in a Starbucks with muszak playing at surprisingly high decibels, it is difficult to put together much of anything thought provoking. So, via Senate 2008 guru, here are some key Senate approvals ratings just released by Survey USA (November numbers in parenthesis):
On the Republican side:
Norm Coleman: 53-41 (48-43)
John Cornyn: 43-40 (45-42)
Pete Domenici: 54-38 (68-25)
Mitch McConnell: 53-40 (54-39)
Pat Roberts: 48-39 (51-36)
Jeff Sessions: 54-36 (58-32)
Gordon Smith: 51-41 (54-37)
John Warner: 55-33 (60-28)

On the Democratic side:
Tom Harkin: 57-38 (53-40)
John Kerry: 54-41 (48-50)
Harkin's rise, along with Warner and Domenici's falls, strike me as the key numbers. Harkin is threatening to put Iowa out of play, while in Virginia Warner is inching closer to true vulnerability. If Warner becomes more vulnerable than Harkin, 2008 could be a huge Democratic year. Further, Domenici's crash from a net approval of +43 to just +16 is remarkable. That campaign is strating to look very much like Kentucky in 2004 when Bunning went completely senile, only in New Mexico we have far, far more time to complete the job.

On the presidential side, the latest from Rasmussen actually shows Obama ahead of Clinton nationwide, 32%--30%. Right now, it is the only instance where Clinton has not led nationally, but in time it could be seen as a real turning point. While Rasmussen is the only polling firm to show Obama ahead, and has consistently favored Obama compared to other polling firms by several points, similar movement toward Obama can be found in a variety of polls. For example, Mystery Pollster's exclusive look at the new Cook / RT Strategies poll shows Obama cutting Clinton's 21-point advantage from four weeks ago sown to 12 points. Overall, according to Mystery Pollster, most polls (5 of 9) are showing movement toward Obama:
For those watching, four national surveys (NBC/Wall Street Journal, USA Today/Gallup, CNN and Rasmussen) have shown a similar narrowing, while four others (ABC/Washington Post, the Pew Research Center, CBS News and Fox News/Opinion Dynamics) have not.
Fox News is the only outfit still showing a gaping Clinton advantage (21 points), and as such appears to be about as much of an outlier as Rasmussen. My current low-end estimate on the campaign puts the race at 34.2% for Clinton, 27.2% Obama, and 16.5% for Edwards. I can't complete the high-end average until I see the non-Gore results from Cook. Still, that is as close as the campaign has ever been in either average. .

Tags: polls, President 2008, Senate 2008 (all tags)

Comments

23 Comments

Senate Approval Polls

Carl Bernstein has a new book coming out soon on Hilary.  Might not be such good news for her campaign:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/wo rld/us_and_americas/article1719879.ece

by global yokel 2007-04-30 02:32PM | 0 recs
Re: New Democratic Primary, Senate Approval Polls

How does Norm Coleman's approval rating go up?  Anyone know?

by JeremiahTheMessiah 2007-04-30 02:37PM | 0 recs
Re: New Democratic Primary, Senate Approval Polls

It's barely outside the margin of error, so it's nothing too serious to worry about. I'd argue it comes down again once Coleman starts being hammered or he does something to increase his visibility (which tends to make hammering him easier as well).

by Englishlefty 2007-04-30 03:51PM | 0 recs
Re: New Democratic Primary, Senate Approval Polls

That makes sense, thanks!

by JeremiahTheMessiah 2007-04-30 04:03PM | 0 recs
Re: New Democratic Primary, Senate Approval Polls

What Smilin' Norm will do is make a few high profile or hot-button lefty votes (for example, against opening ANWR a few years ago) so he looks like he's a principle republican whose not afraid to vote his conscience instead of party lines.

by MNPundit 2007-04-30 04:41PM | 0 recs
Re: New Democratic Primary, Senate Approval Polls

Yep, Coleman is an astute politician and knows he needs to be seen as having an independent streak or create the fake image of being moderate. Thats why whoever our candidate in the senate race ends up being must have plenty of money and communication skills to hammer away at Coleman's voting record, which clearly shows that he is nothing BUT a "loyal Bushie."

by AC4508 2007-04-30 05:29PM | 0 recs
Unfortunately for Coleman...
he still has that (R) next to his name.  If we're still in Iraq, with no withdrawal plan, in 11/08, Midwesterners will rebel.  Coleman's voting record will kill him, regardless of his pandering equivocation.
Harkin isn't vulnerable at all.  Ideal scenario would be that Republican Congressman Tom Latham challenged him.  Latham's seat is itching to flip to the Dems too.
by ChgoSteve 2007-04-30 06:06PM | 0 recs
This Obama Theory May be Off-Base

... but perhaps not. Theory is: A bump for Obama that puts him clear of Clinton by a few points in a couple of polls produces an accelerator effect. In which Clinton supporters feel free or justified or whatever in joining the charismatic Obama movement. Some version of Midwestern level-headedness was keeping them with HRC, but hey, now it's OK to step out and support somebody with actual magnetism.

by ShagBark 2007-04-30 02:41PM | 0 recs
Re: New Democratic Primary, Senate Approval Polls

If I were Hillary I'd get rid or Mark Penn, atleast until she can win the nomination,Penn is turning into the symol for what's wrong with Hillary in the democratic base and it ain't gonna get better as long as he's there. Hillary's response was goos on the "terror" question but then Penn made a crucial error, he used conservative pundits to spin a right wing frame of the dems debate, Obama will nail the question the next time but the love Hillary is getting from people who are not showing up in a dem primary is not going unnoticed, she'd fed into the perception that many have which is that sh'e the GOP's dream opponent. In additon does she really think that going in the direction that she's the only one who can defend America is going to play well among dem voter? maybe Mark Penn really thinks that.

by nevadadem 2007-04-30 02:44PM | 0 recs
Mark Penn

I'm for anyone with a proven track record with helping to elect Democrats, Mark Penn included.

by ChicagoDude 2007-04-30 02:57PM | 0 recs
Re: New Democratic Primary, Senate Approval Polls

Real Clear Politics poll average still has Clinton up by 9.3%. This poll average included the Rasmussen poll, as well as NBC/WSJ, Pew, Fox, USA/Gallup, ABC/WaPo which show Clinton with leads of +5, +10, +21, +5, +17 respectively.

This 9.3% lead squares with her 10% lead in the newest Cook/RT Strategies survey which has Clinton 36%, Obama 26%, and Edwards at 18%.

Still, it's the overwhelming leads in the state polls which indicate the broad support which Clinton enjoys.  Further, the inability of independents to vote in the primary only serves to solidify her broad support.

by ChicagoDude 2007-04-30 02:54PM | 0 recs
Re: New Democratic Primary, Senate Approval Polls

Independants can vote in plenty of primaries.  Not all states but a good amount of them.  

by JeremiahTheMessiah 2007-04-30 03:04PM | 0 recs
Re: New Democratic Primary, Senate Approval Polls

a in Iowa she's losing and New Hampshire is a "civic minded" state with it's first in the nation status, Independants make up a huge share of the vote, 2 losses make whatever the national numbers were before or state polls of non-early states old news and irrelevant.

by nevadadem 2007-04-30 03:11PM | 0 recs
Re: New Democratic Primary, Senate Approval Polls

Independents can vote in the Democratic primary in California.

There are not that many closed primaries for democrats as their are for Republicans.

by BDM 2007-04-30 06:14PM | 0 recs
Re: New Democratic Primary, Senate Approval Polls

I find it amazing that the HRC supporters act as if there is no problem.  It seems to be a sort of a "what, me worry?" response.  They ignore her "unfavorable" numbers which are over 50%. They go on and on about how broad her support is and never mention that Obama has cut her lead by 2/3 in the last three months.  He outraised her in Q1.  He has vastly more grass roots energy.

Perhaps the fact that every right wing pundit is drooling over the possibility of running against HRC should be an indication that she has some major issues.  The Fox news poll ought to be another clue: they are doing everything they can to try to keep the air in her balloon, but the air is leaking faster than the winger pundits can pump.  For me, the whole "I'm the only Dem strong enough to be CIC" line is sort of a last straw.  Playing into the Republican national security meme is the ultimate no-no.

I don't hate Hillary, I just think she is a lousy candidate in terms of electability and in terms of style of politics. It is time to "turn the page."

by upper left 2007-05-01 08:07AM | 0 recs
Re: New Democratic Primary, Senate Approval Polls

Non-Gore result is is 36-26-18, per pollster.com

by MassEyesandEars 2007-04-30 02:56PM | 0 recs
Re: New Democratic Primary, Senate Approval Polls
As people are paying more and more attention and seeing that clinton is not the only choice and that the democratic field is one of the best I've seen, I am not surprised by clinton's falling poll numbers.
She has never been a well liked or popular figure in politics and the more people see of her and of the other candidates they are choosing to go elsewhere.   People are just not wanting to revisit the 90s and continuing the old, ugly politics of the past.
by vwcat 2007-04-30 04:48PM | 0 recs
Clinton vs. Obama

A differential of seven percentage points....I was hoping for six. Oh well, maybe next week.

by aiko 2007-04-30 07:43PM | 0 recs
Re: New Democratic Primary, Senate Approval Polls

As of now. it looks basically like a 1 seat gain for the Democrats. Colorado- Udall.

Top Tier Competitive Races
Louisiana
New Hampshire
Minnesota
Maine
Oregon
North Carolina

Second Tier Competive Races
Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
Iowa
Montana
New Jersey
New Mexico-
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Texas

Longshots
Alaska
Idaho
Illinios
Kansas
Kentucky
Michigan
Mississippi
Nebraska
Rhode Island
South Carolina
Tennessee
Virginia
Wyoming

by nkpolitics 2007-05-01 04:43AM | 0 recs
Dem pick-ups

Dems will win 3-4 of the following

  • Oregon
  • Colorado
  • Minnesota
  • New Hampshire

Dems may win 1-3 of the following

  • New Mexico
  • North Carolina
  • Maine
  • Virginia

Dems have a chance at one of the following

  • Texas
  • Alabama
  • State to be named later

Dems may lose

  • South Dakota?
  • Louisiana?
  • Arkansas?
  • New Jersey?

I see a net gain of 5-8 seats.

by Carl Nyberg 2007-05-01 07:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Dem pick-ups

I expect Colorado,New Mexico and Virginia to be top tier pickups.

Colorado is an open seat- Dems have a formidable candidate- Republicans have yet to field a top tier candidate. Senator Mark Udall.

New Mexico- possible open seat- Republican Incumbent is old and Senile- Bill Roth,Jim Bunning or Conrad BUrns. Democrats have three top tier challengers- Tom Udall,Patricia Madrid,and Martin Chavez

Virginia- possible open seat- Democrats have a possible top tier challenger. Mark Warner. John Warner is old but he is in better shape than Domenici.

Looking at the 2006 House Races we picked up
Colorado- AZ-8,CO-7,FL-16,IA-1,NY-24,OH-18,TX-22 and WI-8.

New Mexico- FL-22,PA-7,PA-10,
Domenici- Curt Weldon
Virginia- FL-22,IA-2
Warner- Clay Shaw.
Coleman(MN) and Sununu(NH)- will be Tossup category through out the campaign.
CT-2,PA-8,
Coleman/Sununu- Simmons or Fitzpatrick

Dole (NC) has a strong chance of losing ie CT-5,NY-19- Nancy Johnson or Sue Kelly.

Collins- (ME)- is in the same position as KY-3(Northup) or PA-4 (Mellisa Hart). Unexpected Defeats.

Smith (OR)- MN-1(Gutkneckt)-or TX-23(Bonilla). Unexpected Defeat.

by nkpolitics 2007-05-01 01:28PM | 0 recs
Re: New Democratic Primary, Senate Approval Polls

Of the top 4 races (CO, NH, MN, OR), Coleman and Smith are in the best shape, mainly because they both have the same "appear moderate while voting the Bush agenda" schtick, which has fooled a lot of (normal, non-blogosphere) voters. If Blumenauer gets in in OR, he can probably make it a competitive race. Even Novick wouldn't be bad.

At this point, I'm more concerned about MN - as unpopular as that R next to Coleman's name is, I still haven't seen anything that makes me totally trust either Franken or Ceresi to be able to beat him. Smith is a lot of things, few of them good, but he's neither as power hungry nor as totally unprincipled as Coleman. If Smith were to lose his race, he'd go back to being head of his frozen foods company, get to spend some time with his family, and still be worth at least $13 million. Smith likes his power, but he'll still be plenty powerful without the Senate seat, which I get the feeling he's quietly losing interest in anyway. If Coleman loses, his life as he's lived it is over. He's been throwing away his principles for power ever since he left the Democratic party ten years ago, and he gambled his entire career on Bush's stock at the 2002 price, which is now, of course, worthless. If he loses this race, he's done, and he knows it. Norm Coleman is fighting for his life and will do literally anything to get himself re-elected. I'm not convinced that either Franken or Ceresi is prepared for that.

Some people have commented on Cornhole Cornyn's abysmal numbers. What I think is just as interesting is how badly Roberts is polling. My impression was that Roberts is the kind of institution in Kansas that Domenici is/was in New Mexico, and that he could essentially do no wrong in the eyes of KS voters even though he should be in front of the ICC in an orange jumpsuit along with Cheney and the others. I know Sibelius is waiting for the VP nod that she won't get, but maybe she should test the waters. With numbers like that and the KS GOP destroying itself with infighting, she or Dennis Moore might have a shot at taking Roberts down.

I also notice how there's no polling of ME-Sen, most likely because Collins' approval rating is still astronomical in spite of herself. I don't care what people say, getting rid of Collins is going to be harder than getting rid of some of the unpopular red state incumbents such as Liddy Dole.  Olympia Snowe can do no wrong, and the popular perception in ME is that Collins is Olympia Lite. Also, northern New England voters are stubborn as all hell - if they made up their mind that Collins was Olympia Lite six years ago, they're not going to change it come hell or high water, and all of the Americans United for Change etc. ads will only be construed as "outsider meddling" and cause the grizzled old Republicans to rally around Susan Collins. (I say this with all respect as a former resident of VT. I've seen it happen.) It's still possible to win ME-Sen, but I see a lot of other races being way more competitive.

by gesundheit 2007-05-01 07:30AM | 0 recs
Re: New Democratic Primary, Senate Approval Polls

You might be right about Ciresi. I know little about him, but it could be he's prepared to lose this one and try again another time. Franken, on the other hand, seems to be actively outraged that Coleman won and that he's occupying the seat Wellstone held. He's got his own problems associated with his candidacy, but I don't think an unwillingness to do whatever's necessary to take down Norm Coleman is one of them.

by Englishlefty 2007-05-01 08:35AM | 0 recs

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