MyDD Primary/Caucus Polling Project 2007

For some time Chris, I and some others have knocked around the idea of MyDD commissioning a round or several rounds of polling between now and the time Democratic voters head to caucuses and primaries early next year, in part because the existing polling either has too loose a screen on participants, in part because they're asking the wrong questions and in part because they're not asking the questions important to us. To this end, on Saturday Chris asked the MyDD community if it would be willing to sponsor four rounds of polls of likely Nevada Democratic caucus-goers from SurveyUSA at a cost of a little under $10,000. The response was noticeably mixed.

Today, we'd like to come at this question from a different angle, taking a few steps back.

  • Would you be interested in supporting a round or a number of rounds of primary/caucus polling between now and early next year? If so, would you like to see one state polled or instead something like a composite of the first four states (Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina)?
  • What type of demographic questions would you like to see asked? In addition to a horserace type question, would you be interested in the percentage of likely Democratic voters/caucus-goers in an early state or all of the early states participate in the blogosphere? Consider themselves to be a part of the netroots?
  • What issue questions would you want polled? Are there important questions you haven't seen asked in the polls commissioned by the establishment media? Are there questions that have been worded just plain poorly by these pollsters?
  • Should there be questions related to the progressive media/progressive movement? Something on Fox News hosting Democratic debates, perhaps?
  • Anything else?

These questions would offer both an insight into the broad sentiments of likely caucus-goers and primary voters and crosstabs to see if there is a correlation between voters' sentiments on these issues and their support for a particular candidate or issue. With all of this data, we could learn more about how the netroots are playing and can continue to play a role in the Nevada caucuses.

In terms of expenses, basic quotes from SurveyUSA indicate that a first round of polling would cost about $4,000 (including one-time expenses) and that subsequent rounds would cost about $2,000 per poll. SurveyUSA would seem to be a good choice both because polls using prerecorded interviews are significantly less expensive than those using live interviewers and because SurveyUSA had a very good track record in 2006.

So, anyway, is this broadly the type of project that you would support the MyDD community undertaking over the next several months? And if we do commission polling between now and the first caucuses and primaries, what, where and whom would you like to see polled?

Update [2007-3-14 16:10:40 by Jonathan Singer]: I've added a multiple choice poll in the extended entry, so please fill that out to let us know what your sentiments are.

Tags: meta, MyDD, MyDD Poll, Nevada Caucuses (all tags)

Comments

16 Comments

Ask about common criticisms

The stereotyping of the candidates in the media has gotten completely going. I'm wondering if voters in Iowa, NH, NV, and SC are absorbing those stereotypes. Ask an open-ended questions asking for three words to describe each of the candidates and also ask questions about each of the candidates.

Is Clinton principled or calculating?
Is Clinton too close to special interests or shares the values of people like me?
Is Obama too young and inexperienced to be President?
Does Obama have formed views on the major issues?
Is Edwards genuine about his views?
Does Edwards have a strong grasp of foreign policy?

These might not be the best questions and the wording might not be great, but I'd love to see what voters think about the stereotypes and whether they buy them or not.

by ahf8 2007-03-14 12:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Ask about common criticisms
Oh boy--those questions sound like they were commissioned by Fox News channel. I don't think we want to ask about opposition narratives to our own candidates.
by Chris Bowers 2007-03-14 12:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Ask about common criticisms
I agree, some of those questions sound almost like push polling. what kind of response is left in the mind of the pollee if you ask "is Obama too inexperienced?" And if people said yes, but on MyDD internal polls Obama still wins, what is the media narrative, that progressives are supporting the guy that their own poll says is too inexperienced.
And it would certainly look bad if MyDD didn't want to release results of a poll.
by jujube 2007-03-14 06:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Ask about common criticisms
What I mean by that is--do we really want to reinforce media narratives driven by Republicans? Even if we end up with results showing them to be wrong, it could just fuel the narratives.
by Chris Bowers 2007-03-14 12:12PM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD Primary/Caucus Polling Project 2007

I would like to concentrate on Iowa and Nevada.

Iowa because its simply the most important state and its result will have broad repercussions for all candidates.

And Nevada because the MSM will probably neglect the state in favor of others, which are easier to poll.

by MarcTGFG 2007-03-14 12:10PM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD Primary/Caucus Polling Project 2007

I would definitely support a few rounds of primary polling between now and early next year, but not in the presidential race.

I'd love to see polls targeting a handful--or however may is financially feasible--of the Democrats who are undermining progressive, and just plain sensible, initiatives.

Let them know we're serious about primary contests. We're polling to test their strength. We're funded, and we're committed to taking them down if they don't shape up.

They can ignore angry emails, but polls performed by national outfits, directly targeting them for a primary challenge from the left? Hard to ignore. And the questions can make extremely clear what our objections are.

I'm in for $200, if this idea is feasible.

by BingoL 2007-03-14 12:17PM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD Primary/Caucus Polling Project 2007
MoveOn already did a poll of House districts where Democrats are doing just that. We could broaden it somehow, though. A poll of Blue Dog districts, perhaps?
by Chris Bowers 2007-03-14 12:23PM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD Primary/Caucus Polling Project 2007

Well, I haven't seen the MoveOn poll--was that designed to frighten incumbents leftward? More important, did they do several rounds to keep probing for weakness? (Not sure what sorta money we're talking about, though ...)

And, franky, I'd prefer a poll of 'Dems Chris hates' to just Blue Dog Dems. Many of them are in blood red districts, aren't they? Far more infuriating when Dems in purple districts pander to the right. Plus your personal 'least favorite' list would reflect something unique to the netroots, I think.

Maybe go back to the 'bright line' you (or Matt?) were talking about, and deveoping a litmus test. Such as polling against any Dem who voted:

1) for the Bankruptcy Bill

  1. against Habeus Corpus
  2. against stronger language in the no-Iraq-escalation legislation

Then prioritize by focusing first and most fiercely on the Dems in the bluest districts ...

Hm, I can see a few problems with that. But as a general idea?

by BingoL 2007-03-14 12:37PM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD Primary/Caucus Polling Project 2007

Let me make a counter suggestion for a better money use.

Let's put together a reading list of excellent liberal publications on the country's problems. We put together a team of articulate progressive spokespeople in select primary states, who digest the material. We hold several townhall meetings in each of our designated states where we discuss these issues - open forum.

The purpose is to draw people to our issues with information, establish a buzz in the state about what is important (counter to the MSM's representation of what is important) increase voter registration & get out the vote in the general election.

by carter1 2007-03-14 12:23PM | 0 recs
Part of my hesitation to support a poll...

First off, I am not that keen on the idea of donating to a poll.  I would rather spend that money on education and actually getting people hired on the ground.

Second, if you are gonna ask us to support a poll, I would like to know if you are gonna ask us for anything else?  Is the poll part of a bigger strategy?  What are we gonna do with the information we get from a poll?  Or is it just to talk about the results on-line?  

Please tell us if this is a drop in the bucket or the big expenditure you envision for this cycle.

by exLogCabin 2007-03-14 12:43PM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD Primary/Caucus Polling Project 2007

I wanted to suggest an alternative way to finance it might be to partner with a media outlet in each of the 4 states. There are dailies, television (non-Fox), and radio stations in each of those states who do not have their own polling but their competitors do.  

by robliberal 2007-03-14 12:52PM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD Primary/Caucus Polling Project 2007

As a big contributor to the "impeachment poll" more than a year ago, I am extremely dissapointed that the memory of this effort has been excised from MyDD project roll.  The reason seems obvious, but I think Chris needs to remember that that poll was a group effort, with this community helping to design it, and paying almost $20,000 to put it into the field.  It's not his to simply erase.  

It took me the better part of an hour to dig up archeaological traces of this once grand effort, and before I throw good money after bad, I think I need an explanation why little issues like "googlebombing" are on the 2005-2006 project list, but the biggest project has been excised.  

by Winston Smith 2007-03-14 01:46PM | 0 recs
Young Voters

I would like to see these polls show where college and non college "young voters (broken down as 18-24 and 25-30) stand on each of the candidates.

I would throw down some cash if the poll were able to cover that.

by Mike Connery 2007-03-14 02:48PM | 0 recs
i voted no

it's too soon, and your money is better spent on other projects. the simple fact is that we're too far out, and any poll taken now will be meaningless in a few months; so much can and will change in that time, and the longer time between now and the first few primaries.

money is a scarce thing in the blogosphere. save yours for an effort that will actually make a difference in some way.

there is also the critique that such polls "feed the beast" of ever earlier, ever more money concerned primary races. we hate that, right? so why play (and pay) into it?

by chicago dyke 2007-03-14 04:01PM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD Primary/Caucus Polling Project 2007
I think I'm also against polling. I think there are too many polls already, granted I'm sure you can find many problems with all of them, and it's nice to have good information, but too much of politics is poll and focus-group driven. What about supporting good ideas/candidates for their own sake?
 I can see good uses for accurate polling data, especially about questions that aren't frequently asked: pushing candidates towards positions, focusing activism on receptive or important areas/audiences, better allocation of future resources, etc. But just look at that recent graph of polling data of low popularity presidents: there are more and more polls of presidents/candidates these days. If you must poll rather than another presidential poll, I agree with the idea of underrepresented lower-level polling/research, find the next CA-11 or KS-2.
I don't need a poll to tell me that a presidential candidate should be for getting out of Iraq, and for single-payer health care, and for major energy reform, and against the death penalty. A candidate I support may not agree on all of these issues entirely, but if they only agree with me because of polling data, it is even worse in my mind than if they agree completly.
by jujube 2007-03-14 06:31PM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD Primary/Caucus Polling Project 2007

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by manulocosa 2007-05-28 10:14PM | 0 recs

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