2008 polls & money
by Jerome Armstrong, Thu Mar 01, 2007 at 11:19:42 PM EST
Looking over the three national polls out done Feb. 23-28, three things: The top is tightening, good news for Gore people, and a top three poll. And the 1Q money race is next.
Hillary's frontrunner stability is close to over. She got a great boost from announcing earlier this year, with a couple of polls showing her in the 40's again, but that's gone. It's not just that, her lead is shrinking. Clinton's lead has gone from 28, 19, 24 last poll to 11, 12, 12 percent in these polls, over Obama. That's getting closer to single-digits, which it has never been this cycle.
Al Gore got a bump. From 10, 9, 11 to 14, 13, 14 percent. Edwards stuck at the same, so it's clear that the rise that Gore and Obama showed came at the expense of Clinton. There's a sliver of hope showing.
Time conducted a polling question that narrowed it down to just three announced candidates:
Clinton 42 Obama 30 Edwards 22 None/unsure 6Hillary is still the frontrunner, Obama still has momentum, and Edwards still is in the thick of the race. That's a good marker. Now, I bet if Gore jumped in, we'd move to a 4-way race quite rapidly, but let's say this is where the race is at now nationally. If Obama continues to gain, and maybe even overtakes Clinton, will a bandwagon effect begin toward Obama? I think it's possible. The support by blacks of Obama had seemed to be contingent on his candidacy being viable-- that's happening much earlier than I thought it would begin, so how high Obama can go is a big question.
We are entering the fundraising frenzy month. Things like the "add a penny for the internet" began happening 4 years ago on the blogs. This year, it's gonna be a torrent of contribution requests by the candidates for meeting or beating 1st quarter expectations. I don't even know what the expectations are. If I were to guess, I'd say Hillary at $20M, and Obama and Edwards at $10M are the benchmarks. And for everyone else, $5M. That sound about right?