McCain Sinking Like A Rock

American Research Group has some new 2008 primary polls out on Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Vermont. The numbers are pretty much what you would expect them to be for everyone, both Democrats and Republicans, with one glaring exception: John McCain is sinking like a rock. Compare the current McCain results to those taken by ARG in the same states in late April, 2006:

Massachusetts
McCain now: 20, for third place
McCain then: 42, doubling second place

Connecticut
McCain now: 21, double-digits behind Giuliani
McCain then: 39, more than doubling second place

Maine
McCain now: 22, behind by double-digits
McCain then: 37, more than doubling second place

Vermont
McCain now: 30, ahead by one point
McCain then: 38, ahead by twenty-two points

Some people might not take this seriously, because it is New England. However, remember that McCain won three of these four of these primaries in 2000, with Maine as the only exception (and he lost here by only 7%). Hell, he won Vermont by 25%, Massachusetts by 33%. This is supposed to be his base region among moderate Republicans and independents, and he is getting crushed here now. The same people who supported McCain in Republican primaries in 2000 have quickly turned against him in the 2008 campaign. If he can't even hold together his old coalition, and many sonservatives still hate him despite his pandering, how can he expect to win this time around?

Moderate Republicans and independents are starting to see through McCain's "maverick" veneer. This is as sure a sign as I have ever seen that his support for escalation and sucking up to theocons will sink him. Start expecting someone else to be the Republican nominee in 2008.

Tags: John McCain, polls, President 2008, Republicans (all tags)

Comments

27 Comments

Re: McCain Sinking Like A Rock

McCain's best chance, maybe his only chance, is to buy/schmooze the Iowa Straw Poll this August and then have every politician drop out leaving him with only wingnuts to oppose.

by David Kowalski 2007-02-09 10:09AM | 0 recs
the McCain Doctrine has been a

lead weight.   I'll bet his numbers started collapsing the first week of  December when that phrase went public

by TarHeel 2007-02-09 10:16AM | 0 recs
I'd rather McCain than Guiliani

McCain at least has a solid track record on:

1. Cutting US oil usage.

  1. Cutting US deficit/debt.
  2. Campaign finance reform.

If he got elected and fixed those three problems, US would be better off.

by BrionLutz 2007-02-09 10:21AM | 0 recs
Re: I'd rather McCain than Guiliani
Can't cut the deficit or US oil usage when you spend another trillion dollars in Iraq.
by Chris Bowers 2007-02-09 10:30AM | 0 recs
Re: I'd rather McCain than Guiliani

"Can't cut the deficit or US oil usage when you spend another trillion dollars in Iraq."

Sure you can.

McCain-Kerry energy bill cut oil usage and was 2003 proposal in middle of Iraq war.

McCain-Kerry deficit reform budget bill was 2003 in middle of Iraq war.

McCain's wrong on Iraq and Iran but he's right on US cutting oil usage to get out of the Middle East and spending a third trillion and he was willing to fund the Iraq war with current dollars.

I'm certainly voting Obama and out of Iraq and a zillion other issues (health care, education, environment, civil rights) but if worst case Republicans win, I'd rather it was McCain so at least three major problems have a chance at being fixed.

by BrionLutz 2007-02-09 10:40AM | 0 recs
So?

Guiliani has a good record on abortion and the gays, and with a fiscally responsible Dem congress, the budget shouldn't be a problem.

Plus, McCain is just about the worst person on the war possible.

by delmoi 2007-02-09 07:11PM | 0 recs
Re: So?

"Guiliani has a good record on abortion and the gays"

Those are trivial issues as far as US national security, debt and energy are concerned.

Guiliani has no record on energy, no record on running a Federal budget surplus.  He's kind of a creep in person, running on an false image created by media during 911.

McCain has a solid record on three huge issues for US, energy/oil, deficit/debt and campaign finance.  If we had bills he co-sponsored with Democrats pass US is way better off.

You know where's going on those issues and you can trust him to do it.

So for the US, McCain is the better of two evils on the Republican side.

by BrionLutz 2007-02-09 07:26PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Sinking Like A Rock

McCain has committed too many "sins" in the eyes of the right wingnut base, mainly by providing symbolic opposition to Bush on certain issues, ie..Torture amendment. I think that their primary is still wide open at this point, much more so then the Democratic one, which has Hillary, Edwards, Obama, then everyone else.

It looks like Rudy is probably not going to go anywhere either, thanks to his 'liberal' views on gay marriage and abortion. That leaves Newt, Romney and Huckabee. My two cents is on Huckabee.

by bjschmid 2007-02-09 10:25AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Sinking Like A Rock

The thing is none of the more obvious candidates on the right like Huckabee are getting any traction at all in the polls. And they don't have the money of McCain, Giuliani or Romney. So it will probably be one of the big 3 who gets it.

by kundalini 2007-02-09 11:07AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Sinking Like A Rock

Early days yet and the Republicans seem to be getting off to a slower start than we are.  Money is an issue but what if a candidate used the kind of methods Dean's campaign did four years ago?  Seems to me that the Republican base could be ready for it.  They haven't had an open primary for awhile.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-02-09 11:33AM | 0 recs
I'd put $100 on someone outside the big 3

I think Giuliani and Romney have absolutely zero chance of getting the nomination, and McCain's chances are sinking now. I expect some alternative to emerge in the spring or summer. Could be Huckabee, could be Brownback, who knows?

by desmoinesdem 2007-02-09 02:54PM | 0 recs
Its the war

Moderate republicans don't like the war.  McCain has painted himself in a corner with his support of the war.

by dpANDREWS 2007-02-09 10:42AM | 0 recs
could be trouble for Romney & Giuliani too

... since they've both yoked themselves to Bush's war. The only difference is that McCain's position is much better known. I'd look for an antiwar dark horse like Brownback to emerge from the also-rans. He also has religious-right credentials that the frontrunners don't.

by berith 2007-02-09 12:36PM | 0 recs
McCain will get desperate

... and that is when the fun will begin.  He'll get as mean as a cornered animal and he'll start lashing out Rudy or whoever is standing between him and the nomination.

by dpANDREWS 2007-02-09 10:43AM | 0 recs
I do....

Start expecting someone else to be the Republican nominee in 2008.

Huckabee, maybe Brownback, dunno who the corporate Repugs would pick as an alternative to either that would survive the primaries.

Opinions?

by palamedes 2007-02-09 10:43AM | 0 recs
Re: I do....

They need to make an impact in the next few months or it will be one of the big three. Huckabee is barely above 1% in most polls and has already said he will reconsider unless he can pull off a surprise in the Iowa straw poll. At the moment only the big 3 are running seriously and so however bad a match they seem for most republican voters, one of them is still likely to have won by early Feb 2008.

by kundalini 2007-02-09 11:22AM | 0 recs
He has a double problem.

On the one hand he knows after his 2000 experience that being a maverick and moderate doesn't win you the GOP nomination any more. It's not the 1950s Republic Party. So learned that if he was gonna win, he would have to woo the theocrat base of the party.

Unfortunately for him, in this metamorphosis from maverick to hard right winger--he lost his old moderate and independent base (as these polls are showing), and never convinced the theocrat base, who he had alienated in 2000, to trust him.

He really is stuck here, there is no third way he can approach this anymore. He alienated his old base, that was not enough for the finish line to begin with, and the base he is looking for doesn't trust him regardless of the pandering. He has lost any base. His only base is the Broderist media. And they don't vote in the Republican primaries.

Get ready for Governor Huckabee.

by need some wood 2007-02-09 10:46AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Sinking Like A Rock

McCain is finished.  If Giuliani weren't running, he might be a strong front-runner, but Rudy is splitting or winning the moderate vote, and the right wing has about ten candidates to consider at present.

Conservatives dislike Giuliani on a lot of issues, but some will forgive him his differences, if he promises to appoint strict constructionist Supreme Court justices.

McCain's biggest problem isn't his past disagreements with Bush, it's the area where he agrees with Bush and the conservative base doesn't -- moderate immigration reform with a guest worker program and a path to citizenship.  

Brownback and Huckabee are too moderate on border issues for the base, and the border hawks like Tancredo, Hunter, Paul, and Gilmore probably won't be able to raise enough cash to compete, so look for it to turn into a Giuliani-Romney contest, both of whom support Bush on the Iraq surge....

by Lex 2007-02-09 11:16AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Sinking Like A Rock

I am interested to note that Mike Huckabee has been mentioned several times here.  McCain tanking was pretty predictable, and I don't see Romney or Guiliani setting Republicans on fire.

There is a huge opportunity here, I think, for an 'insurgent' Republican who is a perfect fit on social issues to come from nowhere and challenge or defeat the current leaders.  I am guessing it will be Huckabee, too.  I have been watching him in the polls and while his support is thin it has improved.

He is personable, TV loves him and vice versa and he has a proven track record, as an executive, of torch-bearing core Republican values with minority support in the legislature.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-02-09 11:17AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Sinking Like A Rock

If Huckabee can raise the money he is the one I think who has the potential to become the 4th player in the race.

by robliberal 2007-02-09 05:42PM | 0 recs
Okay.

Start expecting someone else to be the Republican nominee in 2008.

So, let's assume for the moment then that Giuliani is going to get the Republican nomination.

How does this change things for the existing Democratic candidates? How does it change things for netroots activists?

Does Giuliani's lack of national-level experience protect Edwards/Obama from the claims of "inexperience"?

Do Giuliani's expected issues with social conservatives help Obama (who seems to be trying to do this 'Christian Left' kinda thing, though I can't really tell how into that he is)? Does his association with New York help Edwards (who's at least in theory a southerner) in the Republican southern strongholds?

Does it make things weird if the Republican candidate is the former mayor of New York and the Democratic candidate is the Senator from New York?

On the other hand, does Giuliani's unorthodoxy on certain socially conservative issues and affiliation with New York hurt the Democratic candidates, since it allows Giulianito at least attempt to grab the "centrist" position that Democrats have been trying (and failing) to claim for the last two presidential elections?

It seems that beating Giuliani would be a very different task from beating McCain, but I'm not sure how so.

by Silent sound 2007-02-09 11:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Okay.

Guiliani doesn't seem to have rural appeal but he can be a real 'tough guy.'  If he started talking about terrorism with the same confident enthusiasm he did about the Mafia in NY he would be very convincing.  He and Clinton would be weird, but only for NYers.

Still, I can't imagine the social conservatives not having a candidate who strongly advocates their agendas in this election cycle.  Neither Guiliani nor Romney, for all his trying, seem to be able to do that.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-02-09 11:44AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Sinking Like A Rock

The conclusion one would reach from analysing the weaknesses of all of the Republican candidates is that none of them can win. But logically someone has to. Therefore, logically, someone has to win DESPITE what would seem like fatal weaknesses. Therefore what seems like a fatal weakness when candidates are looked at individually (McCain: Iraq, hatred of the right; Guiliani: social liberalism; Romney: flip-flopping on social issues, Mormonism; Gingrich: high negatives, very low positives; Brownback: low name rec., no charisma, general craziness) cannot in fact prove fatal. IMHO the "deal-breakers" all balance off to such an extent that no one "can't win".

by thesleepthief 2007-02-09 12:38PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Sinking Like A Rock

At this point I just don't see who else can take the nomination.  I'm not a Republican so I can't pretend to know how their brains work, but seriously who the hell is going to get the nomination?

by blueryan 2007-02-09 01:04PM | 0 recs
I dunno

Chris Matthews thinks he's a "true patriot". That's good enough for me.

by LiberalFromPA 2007-02-09 01:07PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Sinking Like A Rock

What the heck is the percentage of fundie turn-out in GOP primaries?  And in the election voting, for that matter.

It is commonly reported the fundies have a lock on the GOP primary in many states but I've never seen hard evidence to back that contention.  

And that, to me, is a big factor in looking at the 2008 election, for both parties.

by ATinNM 2007-02-09 01:33PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Sinking Like A Rock

One scenario that is a possibility is that a very weakened McCain ends up as the nominee. McCain is already polling behind Clinton, Obama, and Edwards in the general election matchups.

by robliberal 2007-02-09 05:44PM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads