ARG Polls Iowa, Too

Read it here. I don't know how much faith I put in ARG's polls of the Iowa caucuses, as they have been the only firm showing Clinton not only ahead, but way ahead. Then again, I don't really know whose polls of Iowa I trust, as the state is notoriously difficult to survey. I guess the trend lines are interesting:

ARG, January 29-February 1, 600 likely caucus voters, MoE 4. (Previous numbers in parenthesis)
Clinton: 35 (31)
Edwards: 18 (20)
Obama: 14 (10)
Vilsack:12 (17)
Clark: 2 (1)
Biden: 2 (2)
Kucinich: 2 (5)
Richardson: 1 (1)
Dodd: 1 (2)
Gravel: 1 (0)
Unsure: 13 (8)

These numbers might give some credence to the "Vilsack stalking horse" theory, where his supporters have Clinton as a second choice. Then again, Obama gained just as much as from Vilsack, so maybe that theory doesn't hold up. Either way, if Vilsack continues to run all the way until the caucuses, whoever manages to forge a deal with his campaign for second place votes will be in a very strong position.

On the Republican side, McCain continues to sink, and Romney continues to rise:

Giuliani: 27 (28)
McCain: 22 (26)
Gingrich: 16 (18)
Romney: 11 (6)
Hagel: 5 (6)
Huckabee 2 (1)
Brownback 1 (1)
Tancredo: 1 (1)
A zillion others at less than 1%, and 15% unsure

Oh boy--at this rate Democrats are going to campaign both against a flip-flopper from Mass., and against a right-wing extremist. And we can use both of those lines at the same time, credibly! I am digging Romney's rise, although it might exist only within the realm of ARG polls.

Tags: Iowa, polls, President 2008 (all tags)



Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

It is hard to understand what appeal Giuliani could possibly have in Iowa.

by robliberal 2007-02-03 03:28PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

WHAT???!?!?  You mean you don't believe the legends of Rudy Guiliani... the man who single handedly took down the mob... the man who made the homeless disapeer to brand new McMansions... The man who all by himself rebuilt Manhattan after 9-11... The man who has crushed terrorism here and abroad... the man who told Bush just where Saddam was hiding....  

Of course a man that great would have true appeal in Iowa.

by yitbos96bb 2007-02-03 06:46PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

You've got to be a NYer.  LOL

by Shaun Appleby 2007-02-03 07:51PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

He's not a NY'er ... if it wasn't for 9/11 .. Rudy would have been run out of NY .. if he is a NY'er .. it's a snark

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2007-02-03 10:54PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

I was assuming it was a snark, that's why I said it.  I'm a NYer too. ;-)

by Shaun Appleby 2007-02-03 11:14PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

I wouldn't underestimate Rudy's support in NY either (fellow New Yorker here, though in DC now).  He's still a heck of a lot more popular in NY than many of his detractors would care to believe.

Even taking away 9/11, he was still reasonably (though not wildly) liked in NY.  In the 40's or even 50s, depending on the poll.  

My sense -- a small percentage of people really detested him, but most people were simply tired of him after 8 years, and even those who liked his policies had had enough of the unnecessary abrasiveness.

I wouldn't underestimate Rudy for a minute.  If McCain doesn't run (hey, anything is possible), my money is on Rudy to win the GOP nomination.

by jhlinko 2007-02-04 03:12AM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

I agree with you, my Mom even likes him and she usually hates Republicans.  But it seems we make fun of him alot, even so.

New Yorkers really appreciate Guiliani and I can remember when he was a fiery, what was it, Federal Prosecuter?  Eliot Ness.  He certainly took on the Mob.

Having said that I wonder if he will fly in non-urban Republican electorates nationwide, and there are plenty of those.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-02-04 03:33AM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

Yeah, I hear ya.  "Rudy 1.0" -- the mob prosecutor, was viewed very favorably by Dem and Republican alike.  Kind of an Elliot Spitzer of his time, though (I think) not as well known.

As mayor, "Rudy 2.0," I think he earned a lot of goodwill for turning NYC around -- lower crime, better economy, etc.  Yeah, yeah, it wasn't just him, but it was certainly part him.  New Yorkers ain't stupid -- and there's a reason he got reelected overwhelmingly in an overwhelmingly Democratic city.  

But I think you hit it on the head -- he's a New Yorker, and there's a certain cadence, style, etc., that does not necessarily play in Peoria (or maybe Des Moines.).  Rudy 2.0 was also quite abrasive.  Of course, Rudy 3.0 -- post 9/11 -- seems to be much more concilliatory, kinder, gentler, etc.

Personally, having lived in NY under previous administrations, I think there's no doubt it's a far better place to live than pre-Rudy.   And I find most of the people who lament the loss of the "authentic" New York are ones who actually didn't live there in those days... when the homicide rate was three times what it is now.  

When it comes to president, however, I find it hard to think of voting for any Republican for that these days.  Whether others will vote for him, I think depends on whether the Rudy who shows up is Rudy 1.0, 2.0, or 3.0.

by jhlinko 2007-02-04 04:20AM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

Yeah, I agree.  I'm a suburban brat so never actually voted for Guiliani.  Agree he was good for NY.  Can't see him really hitting the high notes with social Republicans, though.

We all seem to get kinder and gentler with age and life's little bumps and relationship problems.  Rudy too, I guess.  9/11 really shook him up even though he handled it so well.  We'll see.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-02-04 04:25AM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

I always wondered if Dems in NY who liked Rudy were ok with the Ends that he used to get rid of the homeless... I mean putting them on Busses to other cities???  I am sure other towns have done it... most often to SF, but it just seems kind of scummy to me.  

by yitbos96bb 2007-02-04 04:27AM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

Do you have links for that?   I'm not saying it didn't happen, I just have found that most of the most egregious Rudy stories turned out to be urban legends, or at least overstated.  (I'm not saying that is, I just haven't heard it before, and want to find out details)

by jhlinko 2007-02-04 04:43AM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

Whether or not Rudy wins .. depends on how tough McCain and Romney want to get ... will they be rough and tumble like Bush was in SC in 2000?  Are any of them gonna sling mud ... and sling it hard? .. Given the crew that McCain hired .. I bet they'll have commercials mentioning Rudy marrying his 2nd cousin .... and Rudy dressing up in drag ... after all .. it seems McCain will do anything to win

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2007-02-04 06:41AM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

Yep, no doubt about that.   There's a lot of mud they can sling at Rudy.  And unfortunately, McCain 2.0 ain't the straight talk express guy from 2000.  He seems to be driving the "win at any cost" express this time around.

by jhlinko 2007-02-04 06:52AM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

exactly .. he was never driving the straight talking express .. since he basically suckered the media on it ... but he really is driving the "Win at any costs" express .. so it will be interesting what dirt Mccain's campaign slings and what Rudy and Mitt sling back .. it has the potential to be one nasty campaign

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2007-02-04 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

I am not a NYer, but it was snark.  Just wanted to get a laugh from everyone.  :-)

by yitbos96bb 2007-02-04 04:24AM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

No I am from Chicago... and yes, it was DEFINATELY snark. As a teen I was big into Mafia history (I know wierd, but it still fascinates me) and listen to Howard Stern A lot, so I have heard way to much on the "great" Rudy Guiliani.

by yitbos96bb 2007-02-04 04:23AM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

Seriously, I don't know... Are the Iowa GOPs usually of the Wingnut variety or do they go for the name or do they go for the traditional conservative?

by yitbos96bb 2007-02-03 06:49PM | 0 recs
Vlisack is sure going to forge a deal with Clinton

They basically have the same type of supporters ideologically - DLC moderate/ business-first oriented supporters. I don't see any way Vilsack overshadows Hillary in Iowa or New Hampshire. Won't happen.

Vilsack will eventtually endorse Hillary. And that would make it very hard for the other candidates to topple Hillary.

by rosebowl 2007-02-03 03:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Vlisack is sure going to forge a deal

I'm not sure about this. I have no idea what's in his mind, and I doubt you do either.

by desmoinesdem 2007-02-03 04:45PM | 0 recs
Very true.

   Either Huckabee or Romney will win the support of the right-wing.  I don't think Gingrich will run.  The top GOP candidates have so much baggage.

by cilerder86 2007-02-03 03:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Very true.

Don't forget Brownback.

by yitbos96bb 2007-02-03 06:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Very true.

Good point.  I can't stand the guy, based on his stem cell position (among other things), but... he could gain some traction among the social conservatives.

by jhlinko 2007-02-04 04:45AM | 0 recs
Is there a typo here?

"Obama gained just as much as Vilsack." Vilsack actually went down not up according to the numbers as posted.

by thesleepthief 2007-02-03 04:09PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

Agreed, Lucas.  McCain and Romney have had operations set up here in SC for almost six months.  Giuliani is somewhat behind those two, but he's got folks on the ground here as well.  The diehard Republicans in SC have already picked sides, and the three most talented GOP state consultants have already been scooped up by McCain, Romney, and Giuliani.

by Laurin from SC 2007-02-03 04:19PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

Why the assumption that Vilsack will endorse Clinton? Is there something I'm missing? Vilsack's positions seem to be more akin to Edwards and Obama.

I love Romney rising, too. East coast Massachussets flip-flopper! Finally, it works for us!!

by Alikchi 2007-02-03 04:21PM | 0 recs
I suspect the likely voter screen is wrong

There is no way Clinton is way ahead here. She is probably doing better with low-information voters, but those voters do not show up on caucus night.

And even with low-information voters, I seriously doubt she is leading the other candidates.

I still think HRC finishes no better than fourth in the caucuses.

by desmoinesdem 2007-02-03 04:46PM | 0 recs
Look, you can keep denying HRC frontrunner status

I won't. Sometimes folks just want to believe otherwise even if the facts stare straight into their faces. Same folks were all claiming Lamont would overpower Lieberman eventually in the polls. We all know that didn't happen.

I suppose you support Edwards, right? I don't think you'd be denying the poll numbers if Edwards was leading in this poll. Just be honest with yourself and work hard for whoever you support.

by rosebowl 2007-02-03 05:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Look, you can keep denying HRC

Actually, given all I have read from DesMoinesDem, I would recommend listening to him.  He is simply talking about Iowa and he is very well informed on the situations there.  Even Chris said Iowa is notoriously hard to poll.  

Besides, Frontrunner status is bestowed by the media... No one on MYDD would doubt she is a frontrunner, along with Obama and Edwards.  But Frontrunner doesn't mean they will win... Look at Dean who was the front runner in Iowa for a long time.

by yitbos96bb 2007-02-03 06:57PM | 0 recs
That's exactly my point

I'm no way implying HRC is going to win the nomination. Far from it. It's way too early to make such predictions. But by all indications at this early stage, organizationally, financially, media buzz, and yes support on the ground, she's the early frontrunner.

Things will obviously change for all the candidates, for better or worse as the campaign season heats up.

by rosebowl 2007-02-03 07:04PM | 0 recs
I'm a woman, but thanks

I honestly don't consider HRC the frontrunner in Iowa. I will be very surprised if Edwards doesn't win here.

by desmoinesdem 2007-02-03 07:11PM | 0 recs
Re: I'm a woman, but thanks

That's reality vs the MEdia... Hmm, which will win.  :-)

I still Edwards will fall apart as time goes by, but we shall see.  As I said, you know Iowa MUCH better than I do.  I am curious if he will be able to raise the money levels of HRC and Obama... I am assuming yes, but wierder things happen.

by yitbos96bb 2007-02-04 04:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Look, you can keep denying HRC

He claims that HRC won't be higher than fourth in Iowa.  That is a bold claim that I rather doubt will be supported by facts.  I believe she won't come in worse than second, with first being entirely possible.  

by georgep 2007-02-04 05:56AM | 0 recs
I do support Edwards, actually

But that's not why I think he will win Iowa.

Last time around I was a precinct captain for Kerry in 2003/2004. I worked my precinct pretty hard. In October 2003 I could only identify two Edwards supporters in the whole precinct (lots of undecideds).

When his campaign cranked up I witnessed firsthand the absolutely tidal wave toward Edwards in late December and January. Kerry was also picking up a lot of support at that time, but Edwards was gaining more. I believe if he'd had another week or two he would have won the caucuses. The main reason Kerry won was that in the summer of 2003 he put together a stronger organization on the ground. Edwards had tremendous appeal but didn't have as big a network of precinct captains to help him capitalize on that.

I talk to a lot of active Democrats in Iowa. Almost everyone I know who was for Edwards last cycle is still for him, and enthusiastically so. A plurality of Democratic Party county chairs in Iowa have already endorsed him. He is easily the candidate who connects best in rural and small-town Iowa. I cannot see HRC touching him there.

Here's something you may not realize about the Iowa caucuses. The winner is the person with the most delegates. Raw votes do not necessarily translate into delegates. Support spread fairly evenly across the state will net you a lot more delegates than intense support concentrated in a few precincts. If my precinct has six delegates to assign, it doesn't matter whether I get 100 people in the room or 500 people in the room--the most delegates my candidate can get from my precinct is six.

A candidate needs at least 15 percent of the people in the room to get any delegates out of a precinct. I expect Edwards to be "viable" in pretty much every precinct in the state, and I expect his campaign to have a lot of precinct captains getting bodies in rooms.

In contrast, I see HRC as a candidate who might do better in a primary. She will not have as large a network of volunteer precinct captains (because the activist wing of the party does not like her, for the same reasons she gets 4 percent in the DKos poll). I have not heard about any county chairs endorsing her yet. I'm not saying there won't be any, but I haven't heard of any.  She is very unlikely to be the second choice of people supporting minor candidates who turn out not to be viable in their precincts.

I see Obama as a candidate who also would do better in a primary. He will have a lot of support, but I think there will also be many precincts where he is not "viable."

I am not defending the caucus system--I would prefer a primary--but a caucus is what we've got in Iowa.

ARG is the only polling firm that has found HRC in the lead in Iowa. I do not buy it.

by desmoinesdem 2007-02-03 07:23PM | 0 recs
Re: I do support Edwards, actually

Ahh... MY head hurts from reading that... My God the caucus system is time consuming.  I think I prefer primaries too.

I'm curious JUST how much of a role Iowa will play this time.  I only say that because if all the states trying to move up to Super Tuesday, then losing in Iowa and NH or winning there for that matter may not be that big of a deal this cycle.  Obviously a 5th place finish by a campaigning candidate is disasterous, but It seems like top 3 from the first 4 are going to be somewhat viable going into Super Tuesday.  We shall see though.  

by yitbos96bb 2007-02-04 04:40AM | 0 recs
lots of nominees have lost the Iowa caucuses

2004 was almost unusual in that NH also picked the winner of the caucuses, but it's been different many times.

I don't think Edwards will match Clinton or Obama in money, but I think his fundraising will be very strong. Plus, he will have a solid organization and a good GOTV strategy based on locals, which is what Dean lacked.

by desmoinesdem 2007-02-04 05:46AM | 0 recs
too time-consuming

and unfair to shift workers, parents with young kids, elderly people who don't like to go out at night, and anyone who prefers not to declare a political preference in front of a crowd. I was frustrated last time around because several of the Kerry supporters I identified were unwilling to go to the causus. If there had been a primary, they would have voted.

But like I said, we are stuck with the caucuses.

by desmoinesdem 2007-02-04 06:10AM | 0 recs
Re: I suspect the likely voter screen is wrong

WeDemocrats are conducting a poll on the democratic contenders, and in ours Edwards is ahead with 37%, Gore with 19%, Obama and Richardson tied with 14%, Hillary is fifth with 10%. While its not widespread, and reflects only a few voters, its a trend that makes me wonder at these so called official polls. The poll is at:

Ron McBride

by WeDemocrats 2007-02-03 11:03PM | 0 recs
Re: I suspect the likely voter screen is wrong

Not really a scientific poll it is is just of WeDemocrat readers... and Richardson only has 1%, Kucinich has 14%

by yitbos96bb 2007-02-04 04:43AM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

McCain is going to tank and Huckabee will be a big benefactor.  I realise his support is four-fifths of five-eighths of f*ck all at the moment but it doubled.

I am watching this guy, just wait until people actually get to see him on TV.  He's a preacher and a good one too.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-02-03 05:32PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

He may not have the real big bucks flowing in from big business, though. Club for Growth hates Huckabee with a passion and will probably try to take him out.

by PsiFighter37 2007-02-03 05:37PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

He's a smart cookie and I could just see him running a Dean style insurgency with alternate sources of funding.  He doesn't have a good organisation but he probably knows he needs to break free from the pack a little first to get the money and put together the people.

He's spun his current position , FWIW, out of absolutely nothing and here we are talking about him.  He knows he has appeal if he can only get the audience and he is strongest on Romney's weaknesses with social Republicans.  My thesis is premised on McCain tanking and Guiliani never getting traction with the non-urban GOP core.

And don't be surprised if Huckabee echoes the new politics bipartisan meme of Obama.  The country is sick of this crap and they both sense it.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-02-03 05:43PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

If Huckabee can get the money part together he has strong potential.

by robliberal 2007-02-03 06:00PM | 0 recs
Huckabee's Rock Band

Huckabee would be one of the strongest GOP candidates in a general election because he would have so much crossover appeal to Democratic voters. He is one of very few Republicans who can talk about being a conservative while at the same time sounding "progressive" and "populist".

He has a lot of Bill Clinton type of appeal. He is insofar as I know the only candidate in 2008 who is both a Baptist minister and has his own rock band that plays genre such as Steppenwolf's "Born to be Wild".

Mike Huckabee's Band "Capitol Offense" yY

Huckabee WIth Elmo & Rosita Of Sesame Street 8I

Road To The White House (very good interview) CatCodePairs=Series,RWH&ArchiveDays= 100&Page=1

Comedy Central
(As someone else mentioned his horizontal thinking theme is very similar to Obama's message. Jon Stewart talks about him sounding so "liberal") dia_player/play.jhtml?itemId=80701 dia_player/play.jhtml?itemId=80699

by robliberal 2007-02-03 06:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's Rock Band

The right link for his band is

by robliberal 2007-02-03 07:01PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

And not only that I fully expect that he will strongly emphasise his experience as Governer of Arkansas with a Democratic majority in the legislature who consistently protected Republican social agendas to leverage support in a Republican electorate who believe, and rightly so, that they can expect to have to deal with a Demoractic majority in Congress for some time to come.

I feel Gingrich is a non-starter for the same reason, he represents the opposite approach, a legislative tactician suited to an aggressive Republican legislature with a Democratic executive.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-02-03 07:01PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

In other word... Bush the Sequel... The Sequel.

by yitbos96bb 2007-02-04 04:30AM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

Yeah...  Now that you mention it, hadn't thought of that.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-02-04 04:34AM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

Why does Club for Growth hate Huckabee?  I hadn't heard that.

by yitbos96bb 2007-02-03 06:51PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

Raised taxes -- "five times" says CFG!!! Gas tax, cigarette, beer tax, income taxes (2004), and a tax on nursing homes. (Yeesh!) Yeah, he's slick and Christian but the social wingnuts aren't the only wingnuts. A wingnut candidate has to sweep the wingnut table to have a chance.

by thesleepthief 2007-02-03 07:32PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

You know, I am surprised they'd have a problem with "Sin" Taxes (Cigs and Booze).  Thanks for answering!

by yitbos96bb 2007-02-04 04:31AM | 0 recs
This is the most intelligent thing I've heard....

...about the 2008 election:

"Either way, if Vilsack continues to run all the way until the caucuses, whoever manages to forge a deal with his campaign for second place votes will be in a very strong position."


by shlenny 2007-02-03 05:33PM | 0 recs
he may not make a deal

I don't buy the "stalking horse for Hillary" theory. I think Vilsack is running for VP or at least a cabinet position and wants to raise his profile nationally. I don't think he will strike a deal with another campaign before the caucus--I think he will try to keep up good relationships with the other candidates, so that he has a chance to be appointed to something no matter who wins the nomination.

I also think that Vilsack may pick up quite a few supporters of the minor candidates who are not viable. Think about it: if you are a loyal Democrat who bothers to come to the caucus (and it is mostly the reliable voter types), and you caucus for someone like Richardson or Dodd or another longshot candidate, it's probably because there's something you don't like about the big three candidates.

I would think those people would be less likely to swing toward Edwards, Clinton, or Obama, and more likely to go for Vilsack if he is viable in their precincts. If they are reliable Democratic voters in Iowa, they've probably already voted for Vilsack for governor twice.

My own husband is not Vilsack's biggest fan, but I could see him ending up in the Vilsack corner if his top choice is not viable in our precinct.

by desmoinesdem 2007-02-03 07:34PM | 0 recs
Re: he may not make a deal

Oops, sorry up there... didn't realize you were a she.  Mea Culpa.

Yeah I would bet that it shakes out with Obama, Edwards, HRC and Vilsack making up the top 4 (not necessarily in that order), unless something happens to shake things up.

by yitbos96bb 2007-02-04 04:46AM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

Which makes clear that Richardson ought to skip IA and put all his eggs in the NV basket, then take that momentum to the following week.

by Adam B 2007-02-03 06:31PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

Vilsack wants to be in the cabinet of whichever Dem gets elected. IF Richardsom isn't the VP nominee, he would probably make a great Secreatry of State. I have no clue why Kucinich is running. Wesley Clark would make a great Secretary of Defense.

Clinton- President
Richardson- SecState

by bsavage 2007-02-03 08:57PM | 0 recs
ARG continues to be the only outfit...

...that has Hillary in the lead in Iowa.

by MeanBoneII 2007-02-03 09:31PM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

Stranger things have happened.  What's stopping him?  If he can raise money via on appeal to the masses or have a real media love affair or both anything is possible.  Don't you think the GOP is in the mood for a big shake up?  I'll bet they do.  Let's keep an eye on him.

by Shaun Appleby 2007-02-03 11:19PM | 0 recs
Explain to me please... an informed Democratic voter could possibly see any appeal in a Hillary Clinton candidacy.

  I can understand how Hillary does well with the low-information element; that's not a surprise.

  But involved, engaged Democrats -- those who've observed how disastrous the triangulation strategy has been for the party; those who watched with horror as John Kerry message-muddled his way to defeat in  2004; those who know how disastrous the Iraq war has been and who were astute enough (unlike Hillary) to tell that Bush was lying to us back in 2003; those who appreciate the value of firm, unequivocal stands on issues; those who know how corporate influence has corroded core Democratic values -- exactly what do they see in Hillary Clinton?

 I don't get it AT ALL. Hillary, to this reasonably informed Democrat, is the personification of the party's 2002-2006 nadir as a productive force in American politics.

by Master Jack 2007-02-04 04:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Explain to me please...

Subliminal Advertising?

by yitbos96bb 2007-02-04 04:43AM | 0 recs
I share your confusion

She's got all of her husband's liabilities but not his strengths (not a southern governor, not a good communicator). She's the candidate who would do the most to unite the GOP base while demoralizing the Dem base. I am baffled as to why any involved party activist would want her.

In fact, I don't think many involved party activists do want her. I know a lot of people who were precinct captains for Dean, Kerry, Edwards or Kucinich last time around. So far I haven't heard a single one of those people say they are going to volunteer for HRC.

by desmoinesdem 2007-02-04 05:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Explain to me please...

I talked with a few Democrats who like Hillary. They think that she's antiwar, will fiercely defend a woman's right to choose, and they like the idea of having the first woman president. Plus, they like the idea of having Bill in the White House again. When I explain to them why Hillary is not my top choice, they quickly rethink their position.

by clarkent 2007-02-04 06:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Explain to me please...

   Same thing happened to me yesterday. We had a local Dem Central Committee meeting (I'm on it), and we got to talking about the candidates. A couple of Hillary supporters wanted to know why I was so unexcited about her, and I told them. They thought she was antiwar, too. Now they know better.

  This was the exchange:

  They: "Hillary says she'll stop the war if she gets elected."

  Me: "Hillary's in the Senate NOW. She's not an innocent bystander. She can actually DO something to end the war NOW if she wants to. Why isn't she?"

  They: "...ummm, good point."

  Hillary's support is based on deception and doubletalk, just like Lieberman's in Connecticut. I'm just disappointed to see people who should know better falling for it. It's insidious.


by Master Jack 2007-02-04 06:47AM | 0 recs
Re: ARG Polls Iowa, Too

An insurgent campaign has become a lot harder because the calendar starts in August, 2007 with the infamous establishment stacked Iowa straw poll.  The front-runner will be crowned there (front-runner for President, too).  The Iowa GOP voters are split half wingnut and half establishment but the wingers themselves are evenly split between religious nuts and anti-taxers.  Expect the straw poll winner to be handed the Iowa caucuses.

George W. Bush barely campaigned in Iowa (29 days).  I keep looking for a fall back establishment candidate but don't see it.  If McCain self destructs, Rudy is either handed the thing before voters realize who they have, or somebody else steps up.

by David Kowalski 2007-02-04 06:58AM | 0 recs
overstating the case a bit

People like Alan Keyes and Gary Bauer have done pretty well at that straw poll in the past without winning the caucuses. It will be one sign of organizational strength, but there will still be plenty of time for ups and downs in the campaign before January.

by desmoinesdem 2007-02-04 07:19AM | 0 recs
Be careful what you wish for...

Don't be so quick to yearn for a Romney candidacy.  If Obama or Edwards wins the Democratic nomination, Democrats will be pitting a one-term senator against someone with a long string of executive-level success in business, the Olympics, and government.  Democrats face a very real danger of a "stature gap" against either Romney, McCain, or Giuliani, unless someone like Richardson or Clark wins the nomination.

by Lex 2007-02-04 09:46AM | 0 recs
don't worry

I take your point, but hell will freeze over before Republicans nominate a Mormon from Massachusetss. Not a chance.

by desmoinesdem 2007-02-04 01:43PM | 0 recs


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