New National Polls
by Chris Bowers, Tue Feb 27, 2007 at 03:13:49 PM EST
ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Feb. 22-25, 2007. N=1,082 adults nationwide. Fieldwork by TNS. Results below are among leaned Democrats.
All others: 4%
Unsure / none: 9%
There are also numbers with Gore included, which I don't care to post because I have long made it clear that I don't think unannounced candidates should be included in these polls. I think they pushed undecided a little too hard in this poll, but whatever. An argument could be made that you should either push undecideds very hard or not push them at all. I think the most interesting part of the poll by far was the following:
Clinton's and Obama's support among white voters changed little since December, but the changes among black Democrats were dramatic. In December and January Post-ABC News polls, Clinton led Obama among African Americans by 60 percent to 20 percent. In the new poll, Obama held a narrow advantage among blacks, 44 percent to 33 percent. The shift came despite four in five blacks having a favorable impression of the New York senator.Wow--the subsample of African-Americans probably was not very large, maybe around 120 people, but even a group with that large of a margin of error can't account for such an enormous shift. For quite some time, basically as long as I have followed Democratic primaries, I have wondered if an alliance between African-Americans and white progressives could result in a progressive African-American winning the Democratic nomination (back in early October of 2003 at a Dean Meetup, I actually wrote a letter to Jesse Jackson asking him to endorse Howard Dean in an attempt to forge just such an alliance). Obama was able to use that alliance to win the Democratic primary for Senate back in 2004, but it remains to be seen if he can put together such an alliance--or even if such an alliance would work--in a national campaign. If he continues to rise among African-Americans while maintaining his young, progressive, netroots base, it may only be a matter of three or four months before he catches Clinton in national polls. It will certainly be interesting to see if this crosstab is replicated in any other national trial heats.
This is a little bit more perplexing:
The Post-ABC News poll found that 52 percent of Democrats said her vote was the right thing to do at the time, while 47 percent said it was a mistake. Of those who called it a mistake, however, just 31 percent said she should apologize. Among Democrats who called the war the most important issue in deciding their 2008 candidate preference, Clinton led Obama 40 to 26 percent.Man, the Democratic base has the idea of compromise so thoroughly beaten into it, it is really kind of sad. Even though nine in ten Democrats oppose the war, fully half say that supporting it was a good idea back in 2002? We really don't expect much from our leaders, and have developed a perverse belief that compromise will lead to a victory for our principles. That is quite the loser attitude for a large portion of our base to hold. If there is one attitude adjustment I would like to see the netroots have make among the Democratic base, expecting more would be it.
On the Republican side, Giuliani crushes McCain, 44-21. Without Gingrich, he leads by a whopping 53-23. There isn't a single national poll where Giuliani doesn't hold a strong lead right now, and all of the trend lines favor him. And just in case anyone had any lingering doubts as to whether or not conservative, white evangelicals are actually issue voters:
The principal reason was a shift among white evangelical Protestants, who now clearly favor Giuliani over McCain. Giuliani gained among this group of Americans despite his support of abortion rights and gay rights, two issues of great importance to religious conservatives. McCain opposes abortion rights.They love the guy who disagrees with them. I have to second what Matt wrote on this one:
Like a lot of us, he thinks that Republicans base their political judgment on issues, ie. gay rights, abortion, national defense, taxes, etc. He makes the same mistake that a lot of Democrats make, assuming that conservatives think the way that we do. They don't. They are authoritarians. Gay marriage, abortion, taxes, national security, none of it really matters to them. What they are looking for is an authoritarian to look like he's taking charge, and the way an authoritarian takes charge is to attack liberals and stomp on people who aren't like them. Giuliani did this in New York, so he's a rock star in Alabama.That sounds about right to me. Of course, considering Clinton's lead among war opponents, many Democrats might not be all that different.
There is also a new Diageo / Hotline poll out today (PDF), that has a lot of interesting (and odd) information, but I have run out of room to summarize it here. Check it out, and supply your own commentary.