AFL-CIO to Announce 2008 Endorsement in Four Weeks
by Chris Bowers, Mon Feb 12, 2007 at 11:08:36 AM EST
Each of the 54 national and international labor unions within the AFL-CIO has their own respective endorsement processes and must be considered in forming the general AFL-CIO endorsement. The AFL-CIO endorsed Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) in Feb. '04, but Smith noted they "do not usually" make their endorsement decision as early as they plan to this cycle.
Failing a "no endorsement," it seems to be pretty much a lock that the AFL-CIO would go with Clinton, Edwards or Obama, as unions rarely endorse long-shot candidates. In 2004, I am pretty sure Gephardt actually won what would now be the support of enough unions to get the endorsement of the current AFL-CIO, since most of Dean's support came from current Change To Win unions. When I was in Illinois that same year, Obama similarly had the support of the unions that eventually formed Change To Win, while state comptroller Dan Hynes was supported by most of the current AFL-CIO unions. That may just be anecdotal, but as such I imagine that Obama will have a better chance with Change To Win than he will with the AFL-CIO, which will probably go with Clinton, Edwards or "no endorsement."
Among other things, it will be very difficult for anyone to win Nevada if union support is consolidated behind a different candidate.
Update: In the comments, judith freeman points out that they might just be announcing a decision on theer endorsement process, rather than a decision on which candidate to actually endorse.