TX-Sen: John Cornyn Fares Poorly in Statewide Poll

Bumped from the diaries -- Jonathan

Disclaimer: I work for Democrat Rick Noriega's Senate campaign but believe the results of this poll indicate the opportunity any Democrat would have in defeating Republican John Cornyn in 2008.

I'd like to announce some really great (and even surprising) poll results regarding the Texas Senate race here in Texas. The following poll was conducted a couple weeks ago by Lake Research, a highly regarded polling firm. Analysis of each major point will be below the section.

The survey was conducted among 500 registered voters in Texas who are likely to vote in the 2008 General Election.  The survey was conducted November 13-18, 2007. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 4.4 percentage points.

1. Opinion of John Cornyn

40% favorable
22% unfavorable
24% no opinion
14% never heard of him

Cornyn has been a statewide elected official since 1990- he's been a Supreme Court Justice, Attorney General, and Senator. Given all that, only 62% of Texans know enough of Cornyn to have an opinion of him. That's pretty shocking but verifies the rumors I heard earlier this year from other polls that said about a 1/3 of the state has no idea who he is. So even though Rick Noriega, like most Texas Democrats, is not well known by the general electorate yet, Sen. Cornyn does not enjoy as large of an name ID advantage as we might think.

2. Job Approval of John Cornyn

36% favorable
41% unfavorable
23% no opinion

Cornyn continues to maintain a net negative job approval rating in stark contrast to Texas' other Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison who fairs over 20% points better. While 1/4th of voters don't know enough to have an opinion, those who do clearly aren't happy with what they see. Cornyn's base of support is weak and there is a large pool of voters who seek change.

3. Re-Elect of John Cornyn

31% vote to re-elect
16% vote to replace
53% consider someone else

Texas voters are very open to replacing Cornyn as 69% want to replace or will consider replacing him. Having a 31% re-elect number is awful for Cornyn and is probably one of the most concerning results for him in this poll.

4. Approval of Bush in Texas

20% very favorable
22% favorable
16% unfavorable
37% very unfavorable

The President has lost the support of his home state with a 53% unfavorable rating to 42% favorable among Texans. Talk about a turnaround. Bush is the personification of the Texas Republican Party. If voters are rejecting him, including 37% who deeply disapprove, the Democratic nominee can count on a larger and more passionate partisan base vote in 2008. Cornyn's continued attempts to tie himself to the President will only serve to drag him down.

5. Country Right/Wrong Track

62% County on off on the wrong track
28% Country heading in right direction

Wow. Those numbers indicate that Texans think that the country has not only gone off in a wrong direction, but that's it's jumped clearly off the tracks.  Cornyn's claims that we need to stay the course in Iraq, stay the course on tax cuts causing a ballooning deficit, and stay the course on a health care system that is broken are so out of touch the only course he'll be staying on is a golf course after we retire him from office in 2008.

Tags: John Cornyn, polls, texas, TX-Sen (all tags)




I can't seem to make them right now, but under the 5th poll point, that should read "County off on the wrong track".

by KTinTX 2007-12-06 06:15PM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: John Cornyn Fares Poorly in Statewide

I think there are few plausible occurrences that would impact the national narrative as much as a Democratic win in Texas.

by Steve M 2007-12-06 06:50PM | 0 recs
This person should be a big target

This was the bozo that tacked on that amendment to allow coal fired power plants in Pennsylvania, to pump more mercury pollution into the atmosphere AS A RIDER TO THE HURRICANE KATRINA RELIEF ACT

by Trey Rentz 2007-12-06 07:49PM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: John Cornyn Fares Poorly

Does Rick Noriega have primary opposition?

In any case, the best of luck with your campaign.  If the Georgia race ends up uncompetitive, I'll try to send some money your way.  What I've read about Col. Noriega is very positive.  

Another question; do you believe Rick Perry was re-elected solely becasue it was a four-person race, and the change vote was split, or would he have beaten Chris Bell head-to-head?  It seems that analyzing the 2006 governor's race might help you as well.

by CLLGADEM 2007-12-07 12:07AM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: John Cornyn Fares Poorly

I think this clearly confirms what Jonathan has been saying on the immigration page.

by Boilermaker 2007-12-07 03:42AM | 0 recs
No then Yes

Mikal Watts, the self funding trial attorney, dropped out of the race last month. A couple of weeks ago a school teacher named Ray McMurrey got in the race but he was originally running as an independent and switched because it required too many signatures He hasn't made much of a splash.

by KTinTX 2007-12-07 09:55AM | 0 recs


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