Huckabee's race to lose

The BushCo media is in full-tilt to Romney now, with Chris "I heard greatness" Mathews leading the way. In tandem they will go after Huckabee for being intolerant of those that belong to the Mormon cult. Romney is basically trying the pivot the low tolerance prevalent among Christians and Catholics towards Mormons, into a us vs. them against the secularist members of society. Good luck with that. The NRO conservatives like to mock Huckabee for his religious views almost as much so some of the secular bloggers. Good luck with that too. I thought Romney looked like a robotic salesperson without any life, and the site of the Bush's behind him made me cringe.

This wasn't only a moment for Romney to talk about his being a Mormon without actually ever mentioning that he's a Mormon, it was also the coming out moment for the Bush clan to signify who they have anointed among the Republicans. I can't imagine that his becoming the de facto choice of the Bush clan is a good thing for Romney to have in his favor right now either. The recent SV poll of Republican Iowans showed only 6% see George W. Bush as a conservative Republican in the mode of Ronald Reagan. The Bush name is mud even among Republicans.

We should hope for Romney. Huckabee is dangerous because he can win. The deaths of women killed by a convicted rapist in the DuMond case has been deftly handled by Romney:

"There are families who are truly, understandably and reasonably, grief stricken," Huckabee told CNN. "And for people to now politicize these deaths and to try to make a political case out of it rather than to simply understand that a system failed and that we ought to extend our grief and heartfelt sorrow to these families, I just regret politics is reduced to that."
The new Rasmussen poll out of Arkansas ought to clam up Obamafans that say he can win in Red States, or those that claim Clinton has a plan other than winning Florida, for the Presidency:

Huckabee       48
Clinton        42
Huckabee       54
Obama          35
Huckabee's taken the lead in Iowa, pretty solidly, and I doubt that's going to change, even Romney's folks sense that, Geraghty:
Prior to the speech, Team Romney’s internal Iowa polls showed that Governor Huckabee had the support of 54% of evangelical Christians, Romney had 16%, and the rest were split among the other GOP candidates or were “undecided.” While Romney did not deliver this speech in response to Huckabee’s Iowa surge, it should the effect of keeping Huckabee’s share of the evangelical vote from rising, while giving Romney a small bounce. If so, this probably keeps Huckabee from reaching the 30-34 percent of Iowa caucus goers he needs to win."
Beyond Iowa, Huckabee has also stormed into the lead in South Carolina today. Heck, Intrade doesn't even have Huckabee on the market for South Carolina, but Rasmussen and Insider Advantage both come out with polls from Dec 3-4th showing Huckabee with a solid 5-7 point lead.

There's 28 days to go. Is Huckabee peaking at exactly the right moment or too early? Given that polls are now coming out showing that he can also win in the general election against either Clinton or Obama, I'd guess that he's going to be a little tested in the coming weeks. If he weathers that storm with a win in Iowa and then follows that up with a win in South Carolina, he's got the nomination wrapped up.

There's a lot of '06 hubris out there among Democrats that believe we already have the '08 election locked up for President. That in large part explains why so many Democrats want to make this upcoming election even bigger, by making it a historical statement. More polls like that one coming out of Arkansas ought to at least sober up that viewpoint. I'm not saying that Edwards is the answer (you know who I thought could win), just that we will not walk away with the '08 race against Huckabee- he will be very difficult to defeat.

Tags: Mike Huckabee (all tags)

Comments

62 Comments

Re: Huckabee's race to lose

The new Rasmussen poll out of Arkansas ought to clam up Obamafans that say he can win in Red States,

Really?  Clinton has an almost incumbent-esque jive to Arkansas, where Huckabee is the former governor, where Obama doesn't, and that's the state you want to compare for red-state appeal?  Please.  

This poll has nothing to do with winning red-states, this poll has to do with winning Arkansas.  

by JeremiahTheMessiah 2007-12-06 10:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

A bit rich comparing Obama's match-up with Hillary's in Arkansas, where she is virtually favourite daughter.  How 'bout Ohio, PA and Florida?

by Shaun Appleby 2007-12-06 10:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Here's FL,PA, OH polls

Here are polls for FL, PA & OH on General match-ups.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_quinn ipiac_flohpa_surveys_4.php

It shows that Obama  is the weakest candidate among the big three. Clinton is the strongest.

I don't know why so many Obama fans are in denial that Obama will be the weakest democratic candidate in the general election.

We can go on & on in other swing states. We can start looking at TN,WV,CO,NV,VA, WI, NJ,CT,.

You can also pretty much say goodbye in the general election in IA & NH if Obama is the nominee.

Barack Obama will be crushed in the general election.

If you think this is bad, Wait until it becomes a one on one between Obama vs. a Huckabee or Obama vs. Romney. or against Giuliani or McCain.

The problem here is some democrats led by the Liberal Elites are so obsessed with Making History. Making it a Symbolic run without regard to the reality of losing .

P.S. In this troubled world, why in the world will majority of americans give the driver's seat to a 1st term senator with even less experience than George Bush? Combined that with bigotry & racism- this guy could realistically lose even some Blue states like NJ,CT,PA,NH.

Now WHITE WOMEN compared to BLACK MEN??

HUGE DIFFERENCE in Success & track record!

We've had about 36 Women Senators elected across America. In all regions of the country. ( All White Women except for 1) There is a reason we've had about 16 Women elected as Governor in America. ( All White Women )coming again from all regions of the country.

While we've only had a 4 Black men ever elected since Reconstruction to win Statewide office. 3 of the 4 came from ONLY TWO STATES ( MA & IL)
- TWO VERY BLUE STATES!!!!

And you are now asking ( HOPING, REALLY HOPING) that America elects Obama nationwide ????

Lets at least make clear if we want this to be about Symbolism, Making History or do we really want to win!

Hope is a nice word! We all need hope in our lives. It just so happen that Obama is NOT the best hope for our party.

by labanman 2007-12-06 01:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Here's FL,PA, OH polls

No Obama/Huckabee match-ups there.  What kind of comparison is that?

by Shaun Appleby 2007-12-06 02:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Here's FL,PA, OH polls

Obama is pretty deluded and some whites are making him more delusional. In a country that reinstates Don Imus and in a country of Jena 6, a black is going to become President? Dream on!!

by Boilermaker 2007-12-06 02:47PM | 0 recs
Arkansas poll?

Of course the wife of a popular former governor turned president and a former governor would outperform Obama in a state where he has no local connections at all, especially this early.  I think posting this poll and claiming it shows Hillary has any advantage over Obama in red states is more than a little disingenuous.

by Sean Robertson 2007-12-06 11:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

I think this guy is dangerous. He's like a more qualified, more likable, and more talented George Bush circa 2000. And say what you will but Bush did very well against Gore. Huckabee could probably win against any of the democratic candidates.

As for the other republicans, I think Romney would be crushed in the general election and Guiliani while conceivably strong has a lot of nasty baggage. At this point Thompson has no chance of even getting the nomination and McCain doesn't have a very high one either.  

by Korha 2007-12-06 11:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Obama's losing by 19% and all there are is excuses galore & that Clinton also is losing there has no excuse either. Sorry fans, the electability gig seems to have timed out.

by Jerome Armstrong 2007-12-06 11:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Actually Clinton is beating the pants off Huckabee in Florida in the latest quinnipiac poll Dec. 5

Florida

50 - 35 percent

Closer in Ohio

Ohio

45 - 38 percent.

However if Huckabee and Obama wins I would know that the American public choose their presidents the way I choose my candidate on American Idol. ( not on who can actually sing ).

by lori 2007-12-06 11:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Can you pick any other state than Arkansas and any other candidate than Huckabee, just since it happens Huckabee was a former Governor there?

If Huckabee's the nominee, I don't expect we'll win Arkansas, but it will have no effect on other red states.

by Progressive America 2007-12-06 11:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

wait which red state do you think Obama can win by the way ,

By red i take it you mean southern .

Obama is not going to win in the south .

If we can't win in Arkansas with the dem/rethug registration almost 2 to 1 , I don't know how you would think Obama can win anywhere else in the south.

Maybe we all should pick up the book whistling past dixie , dust it off and read it.

Obama's electable would come into scrutiny sooner than later and if that happens he won't fair well.

by lori 2007-12-06 11:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

electability.

by lori 2007-12-06 11:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

The South is certainly going to be off-limits if the Republicans nominate a Southern Baptist minister!  That's not a strike against Obama, it's a strike against Democrats in general.

However, there are other red states, and not all of them are necessarily receptive to such a blatant Southern Baptist candidate.

by Steve M 2007-12-06 11:20AM | 0 recs
The west

is the swing district this year.  Especially if Huckabee is the nominee.  Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico come to mind immediately.

In the end, I think this is all going to come down to Ohio and Missouri like it always does.  The good news is that Ohio is in Democratic hands and perhaps people in the inner city will actually be able to vote this time.

by the mollusk 2007-12-06 11:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

The South is certainly going to be off-limits if the Republicans nominate a Southern Baptist minister!  That's not a strike against Obama, it's a strike against Democrats in general.

- Exactly Steve , I have been saying it for a while now , I am a big fan of Tom Schaller's whistling past dixie , the point I made applies to all dems.

I have heard Obama make the point that he could win missipi , alabama by increasing the margins of the black vote  which is just bogus too me.

I hope dem candidates don't go down that road and waste resources in those states.

You have to pick your poison  

by lori 2007-12-06 11:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

"I have heard Obama make the point that he could win missipi , alabama by increasing the margins of the black vote  which is just bogus too me."

It is talk like this that makes me call Obama, Barrack "on Crack" Obama and Oprah as delusional or demented. The man has not even visited MS or AL and the blacks there are running away from him for the fear that he will drag them down in the general elections. Call me crazy but truth hurts.

by Boilermaker 2007-12-07 06:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Well, there are a couple things we have to address when facing the issue of trying to get electoral votes from the south.  

First, registration doesn't matter.  A lot of old people are registered Democrats who vote Republican now.  

Second, you have to campaign there before you can start comparing numbers.  If we don't put forth any effort, Republicans are going to carry the south easily.  

Third?  Know where to strike.  We have to hit where we have a chance.  States that can be competitive that Kerry lost?  Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Arkansas, Missouri, Florida

The ones you could consider in the south = Arkansas, New Mexico, Florida, Nevada?  

You have to start somewhere.  Start there, and depending on your resources, you pick the next best thing.  

by JeremiahTheMessiah 2007-12-06 11:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Now we are all on the same wave length thats why I said we should all pick up whistling past dixie and read it.

Dems are not going to play well in the south and anyone who claims that is just fooling people.

Just like you said pick your poison and play where you can win.

Hillary Clinton gets that and I hope others do as well.

All this talk about missipi and alabama is just a pile of crap . I have heard Edwards and too a lesser extent Obama make such claims .

The west is where the battleground is.

So lets just bury the talk of the south once and for all. At least for the next decade .

50 state strategy is fine for local , senate races but i'll rather not waste my resources on that in a presidential election especially in southern state.

The democrats presidential platform is not an ideological fit for the deep south as of now. The strain has gone even wider in the last decade.

 

by lori 2007-12-06 11:47AM | 0 recs
GREAT FUCKING POST!!!

People need to get what you said through their thick heads.  

You know the rule in chemistry that matter cannot be created, nor destroyed?  Well, it's the same in politics.  It doesn't matter if ALL blacks in Mississippi, SC, AL, or even Georgia vote for Obama.HRC.Edwards, we still cannot - and won't - win them.  

The numbers just don't exist.  I know it's nice and all, but Edwards needs to stop obsessing about such things.

by jgarcia 2007-12-07 09:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Same for Hillary. She's doing poorly and she even has ties to the state.

I didn't bring up electability, but I think Edwards is definitely the most electable.

by Progressive America 2007-12-06 11:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Mr. ProgressiveAmerica,

Can you please explain to us what Red or Purple states Barack Hussein Obama will carry in the General Election???

This is going to be very interesting.

Frankly, I better question for you Mr. Progressive is what Blue states will Obama LOSE in the general election against Huckabee,Romney, Giuliani or McCain???

Say NJ,PA,CT,IA,NH - Is that enough for you or do  we continue.

We can add NY if you want. Polls there show if NY hero Rudy Giuliani is the nominee, he will easily defeat Obama there as well.

So what states can Obama carry that John Kerry could not carry??????

Have you listened lately to Sean Hannity or Limbaugh? Thousands of callers are being "politically correct" or risk being labeled a racist. But they are extremely excited & relieved to face Barack Huseein Obama.

Many callers are already referring to Obama as the "First Black Muslim major Presidential candidate."

Do you see how ugly this will be & how many americans will fall for this!

by labanman 2007-12-06 01:19PM | 0 recs
Giuliani Will Not Carry NY

"We can add NY if you want. Polls there show if NY hero Rudy Giuliani is the nominee, he will easily defeat Obama there as well."

Huh???  What NY polls are you referring to?  See the latest Quinnipiac poll numbers in October below and that was before the Sex on the City scandal.

Clinton - 52
Guiliani -41

Obama - 45
Giuliani -45

Guiliani - 45
Edwards - 44

For good measure, polling shows NYC residents think Mike Bloomberg makes a better NYC Mayor than Giuliani by a 46-16 margin.

The idea that Giuliani is a threat to the Dems carrying NY is laughable.  His poll numbers were in the crapper on 9/10/01 and they have returned to that level in NY.

by John Mills 2007-12-06 02:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Obama mania..people in denial of racism in this country including Oprah Winfrey..this despite having at least five to ten of her shows every year emhasizing racism in this country. Boy is she deluded!!

by Boilermaker 2007-12-06 02:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

I think Huckabee is peaking just a little too soon.  Is his fundraising picking up as fast as his poll numbers?  Clearly, if he wins the GOP nomination it will be a dagger through the heart of the "money is everything" school of punditry.  I can think of a lot of awful things to say about him but so far, at least, he is not the big money candidate.  

Thanks, Jerome, for pointing out our overconfidence.  Too many Dems, netrooters and otherwise, are already thinking about redecorating the White House.  Haven't we learned anything from 2000 & 2004??

by howardpark 2007-12-06 11:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

His fundraising will catch up, quickly, if he continues to gain credibility. What will be harder for him to catch up on is field organization. THe last report I heard, he had 1 office statewide in Iowa. Can he really win with little to no field presence?

by desmoulins 2007-12-06 12:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Huckabee is the one Repub who worries me.  He is pretty smart, has charisma and doesn't come off like a scrooge.  His rebuttle to Romney last week about not punishing children for their parents actions was priceless and politically worrisome as it probably struck a chord with a lot of voters.  Plus, being a former Gov gives him the type of exec experience voters like.  

One of my major worries about the leading Dem candidates is they all come from the Senate and only 3 sitting Senators have ever been elected President, the last being Jack Kennedy.  Despite the fact that all 100 Senators think they are a President in waiting, the voters don't share their views.

by John Mills 2007-12-06 02:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Well it would have been nice to see this post this summer, but better late than never. This hubris is something that's pretty wide spread right now. You see it amongst A list bloggers too. Way, way way too much. My fear is that the party will wake up in late Nov 2008 wondering what happened.

by bruh21 2007-12-06 11:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

And this election IS a historical statement. You think we'll have time to mitigate the worst effects of Climate change if we don't start until 2012?

I still don't know how to beat Huckabee.

by MNPundit 2007-12-06 11:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

He's beatable. But firs tyou got to admit he's a threat.

by bruh21 2007-12-06 01:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

I did that a long time ago, it's the beatable part that I've been worrying about since his appearance on Colbert.

TBH he does seem to be the best of the lot save perhaps McCain on climate change.

by MNPundit 2007-12-06 03:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Funny line, but realistically...the Clintons let the rest of the Dem establishment wake up after 2000 and 2004 and make people wonder...but it's really not sure. The field has to be clear for Hillary and 2008 looked like the golden opportunity. If she doesn't win, I expect everyone to start pointing figures the day after the election...if not sooner.

by risenmessiah 2007-12-06 02:38PM | 0 recs
What the Huck?

I know that money and organization don't mean everything but they've got to mean SOMETHING.

And please show the Huckabee and Obama numbers in Illinois.

by mboehm 2007-12-06 11:06AM | 0 recs
Illinois is not a swing state

so who cares what the numbers are there.  Anyway, none of the GE matchups matter very much right now because both nominees will have 100% name recognition by the time the election happens, whereas nobody but Hillary has 100% name recognition yet.

by lorax 2007-12-06 12:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Well I would expect both Edwards and Obama to perform poorly against Huckabee in Arkansas. It's Huckabee's homestate. Hillary has some advantage, since the Clintons are loved there.

Let's face it, Arkansas is not going to set the tone for other red states if Huckabee is the nominee. He's the former governor there, what do you expect, our candidates to be trouncing him? If Hillary can't even come close with all the relationships she has there, then no one else will.

So if the Republican nominee is Huckabee, yeah, forget Arkansas, but it will not affect other red states.

by Progressive America 2007-12-06 11:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

I am amazed that a sophisticated observer could declare this "Huckabee's race to lose" based upon approximately one week of honeymoon coverage of Huckabee as the fresh face rising in the polls.  Everyone is in such a hurry to be the first to declare a winner.  I'm reminded of Chris Bowers' hasty conclusion that Obama has become the front-runner for the nomination.

As for the issue of Arkansas, yes, let's take some new polling that happens to coincide with Huckabee's strong run in the national media and declare that it represents the gospel truth.  As opposed to, say, all the prior polling that indicates Hillary would easily defeat Huckabee in Arkansas.

Also, it looks rather bad for this site to declare the religion of our Senate Majority Leader a "cult," and it looks even worse not to be able to spell the name of that religion.

Now, having unburdened myself, let me venture a constructive comment.  What I think people fail to understand, and time will tell if I am correct, is the more or less unique qualities of George W. Bush that enabled him to unify the disparate wings of the Republican coalition.  People seem to assume that well, they're all Republicans, the Wall Street types and the evangelicals will all show up in the end regardless of who the nominee is.

I don't think that's the case.  I don't think Big Business is necessarily going to rally behind a TV evangelist type who preaches an aggressively populist message, particularly not in light of the Republican Party's atrocious record as a steward of the economy.  And since that's the wing of the Republican Party that provides most of the funding, Huckabee could be in big money trouble considering he's shown no aptitude for raising big bucks on his own.

I think Democrats tend to get far too pessimistic and bogged down in the losing campaigns of the past.  As our conventional narrative would have it, the Democratic nominee has to get everything 100% perfect, while the Republican nominee simply has to show up and be a guy you'd like to have a beer with and he easily marches to the nomination.  In reality, the other guy has to overcome challenges too, you know.

by Steve M 2007-12-06 11:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

"Compassionate conservative" is equally as poisonous a line to the Wall Street types as "populist" is.  I frankly don't know what you consider to be the difference between the two.

The only reason George Bush got a pass on his message is his link to the traditional Republican establishment, by which I mostly mean his family name.  The financial sector is not looking for a "compassionate conservative."

by Steve M 2007-12-06 11:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Good post. I'd like to be cautious, but all this defeatist whining on the left is just too much at times.

by spirowasright 2007-12-06 12:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Wait, it's worse to have misspelled it then to have pointed out that Mormonism is a cult?

by Jerome Armstrong 2007-12-06 01:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

I think there is a wider consensus on the spelling issue than on the cult issue.

by Steve M 2007-12-06 01:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

OK, I stand corrected.

by Jerome Armstrong 2007-12-06 01:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Pointing out a candidate is a threat is pragmatic optimism because no one said in that post above he wasn't defeatable. Assuming that we will win or that the other side will do our job for us is hubris.

by bruh21 2007-12-06 01:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

What's Huckabee's "base"?

I suppose the easy answer is "evangelicals" - but I'm increasingly thinking (in GOP primary terms) that they're not the unbreakable block an outsider might think they are.

I like to amuse myself perusing the right's blogs and near as I can tell... Redstate is Thompson land, perhaps with a slight "take another look at McCain" nod.  Lucianne seems to be Giuliani/Romney death match.  Freeper seems all over the place.

FWIW, Huckabee seems to have less cred with that crowd than even McCain.  I've heard "Clinton clone" (apparently there was some sort of Gov's mansion furniture scam by the Hucks?).  I've heard he's the single most hated candidate by the "Mexico is invading us" crowd.   I've heard he's the tax-n-spender from the corporatist crowd.

Of course, the far right sites are even less representative of GOP primary voters than DK/Atrios/here/et al are of the Democratic crowd - but still, it just seems there is real loathing from the mouth-breathing, Limbaugh-listening, Bill O'Reilly is too liberal crowd.

by zonk 2007-12-06 11:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

I've also noticed the hostility Huckabee receives from certain corners of the rightwing blogosphere.  I'm not sure what it means though.

At my most optimistic I think that we believe Huckabee to be unbeatable because we can see why people would vote for him.  But we're coming at this from a Liberal perspective.  So maybe we're not a good point of reference for Huckabee's candidacy.

For example, it really is beyond me why anyone would vote for Bush.  But lots of people did in 2000 and 2004.  They obviously saw something I didn't.

by the mollusk 2007-12-06 11:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Hailing from red Indiana and a GOP family, I suppose I've had less of a "I don't understand how anyone can" experience... I mean, I ultimately can't fathom pulling a lever for Dubya - but I 'understand' why folks did (or maybe... understand how they got bamboozled by a decade of wurlizter propaganda would be more accurate).

Again - I'm all anecdotal here, and that's not a very good way to analyze the situation - but "compassionate conservatism" seems to have morphed into a bad word... it's kinda become code for "limited socialization of medical care, amnesty for illegals, etc".

I think the hard right ultimately falls in line behind whomever gets the GOP nod, but it seems to me that they're more or less coalescing around a Giuliani vs. Romney vs. Thompson race.  

Do I fear Huckabee in the general?  To some extent... I think post-election polls from 2006 undercut the Rovian myth that one can win an election purely on base strength (it wasn't low base turnout that cost the GOP in 06 - it was mass desertion by independents).

I think Huckabee's probably the strongest candidate to pull appreciable chunks of the middle/independents just based on a "likeability" factor... but I just don't see where he gets the support in the primary.

by zonk 2007-12-06 11:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Your analysis seems spot on to me but contradicts the most recent polling.  You'd think primary voters would be less enthused about Huckabee, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

It will be interesting to see how he responds to the inevitable dirty tricks.  Steve M points out above that we're still in Huckabee honeymoon time.  Who knows what he'll look like in a few weeks.  Although I wouldn't underestimate the length or power of a media honeymoon.  It took until 2005 for folks to get past the Bush honeymoon.

by the mollusk 2007-12-06 12:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Where are the polls showing he can win the General Election?  I just see one for Arkansas (where he's been governor for >10 years).

by the mollusk 2007-12-06 11:21AM | 0 recs
With Thompson a dead man walking ...

I think Huckabee can only go up.  He can start to peel of the 6 or 7 Thompson supporters that are left.

by dpANDREWS 2007-12-06 11:34AM | 0 recs
Bull shit

Jerome, do you think we are idiots? You cite one state, where (as a reader above notes) Clinton is a quasi-incumbent, yet you ignore the much more important national numbers. I have had it with this crap. You are dragging your own site down.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_2008__1/2008_pr esidential_election/election_2008_huckab ee_vs_clinton_obama

General Election Rasmussen:

Clinton 46% Huckabee 45%;
Obama 45% Huckabee 41%

by thenew 2007-12-06 11:36AM | 0 recs
do people in the general public

even know who huckabee is?  Polling of any other state besides arkansas for the general election would probably be pointless at this time.

And about the south...Hillary, Obama, and any other Democrat have very little potential to win states there.  Most of those states are just as solidly republican in presidential elections as they used to be solidly democratic- not to mention that they will be the most hostile to a female, black, or trial lawyer president.

The states that will be most competitive in the general election are the mountain west and midwest states.

i would expect all of the republican and democratic candidates to be competitive there.

by d 2007-12-06 11:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

I agree that picking Arkansas as your test case is a stupid way to make your point. I'm more interesting in say, Ohio or Kentucky. But I see your point we should be scared about Huckabee. Romney, McCain, Giuliani, and Thompson at this might as well have a big L for loser stomped on their forehead. But Huckabee, heck I have a hard time hating him, even though he's in many ways scarier than all of them (except nuke 'em all Giuliani).

What I don't get is that he has no money. Dennis Kucinich have raised more cash than him. How can you expect to win the GOP nomination by being the poorest candidate in the field? You can be at a fundraising disadvantage, but to be as dirt broke as he is makes me wonder how he could slingshot an Iowa victory into the nomination.

The other thing is that Huckabee has a minimal ground operation. I don't know how you can win with the skeleton crew he's got, whatever the polls may say. But if he wins Iowa, I really hope Edwards will be celebrating at the same time.

by alexmhogan 2007-12-06 11:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

The new Rasmussen poll out of Arkansas ought to clam up Obamafans that say he can win in Red States, or those that claim Clinton has a plan other than winning Florida, for the Presidency.

In her defense, Clinton is the only Democrat who beats the GOP field in all 3 sing states, FL, OH, and PA, in this week's Quinnipiac's swing state polls.

by BigBoyBlue 2007-12-06 11:59AM | 0 recs
Jerome is wrong

I think the Arkansas match up poll numbers against Huckabee should not be seen as a knock on Obama since he has zero ties to the state.

If anything , those polls are bad for Hillary since she has deep roots in Arkansas.

Hillary is suppose to be Arkansas favorite daughter with very high name recognition...Obama , on the other hand , does not have the same kind of name ID...People may know he's the black candidate and heard of him , but do not have enough information to make a good judgement on him.

I do not expect Hillary to have any shot in Arkansas if Huckabee is the nominee anyway , and if Huck locks the nomination , i expect him to blow away any democrats in the state.

by Prodigy 2007-12-06 01:05PM | 0 recs
Arkansas is just six electoral votes

Jerome, I see your point.  Huckabee would be a tough candidate.  But McCain would impossible to beat.

I agree Edwards might be the best matchup against Huckabee.  Huckabee's appeal is also based on that he's an outsider.  The way to beat him is to hammer his "fair tax" plan, not any social issues.

But we shouldn't be deciding who's going to win on one small state, which happens to Huckabee's home state..

I've always said this will be a tough election.  But it can be won.

by mikelow1885 2007-12-06 01:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Arkansas is just six electoral votes

McCain would be a tough nut to crack, but certainly not "unbeatable" for so long as there's an unpopular war on.  The public is simply not open to being persuaded on Iraq any longer, even by someone with McCain's credibility.

There are a lot of people who would listen respectfully and then vote for the candidate who promises to end the war.

by Steve M 2007-12-06 01:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Arkansas is just six electoral votes

McCain looks and sounds like a tired old man. I think many voters have the McCain of 2000 in mind in these polls. So I do think he's beatable, once voters take a second look at him.

But, trust me, McCain is not going to get the nomination. He is loathed by the R base, something the MSM seems to constantly miss. Repubs feel the same way about McCain as Dems do about Lieberman.

by animated 2007-12-06 02:23PM | 0 recs
geez, this is a stretch


picking a state that both clinton and huckabee have ties to and claiming that obama can't win in ANY red state is a stretch, my friend.

get a grip.

by pmb 2007-12-06 01:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Romney is nothing more than Bob Dole, Jerome. He's the candidate to fall on the sword if they believe the Democrats are insuperable.

The fact is, you raise cogent points about Dems feeling hubris...but that's the whole point of the race right now. Big donor started to cash checks too early and as such the long length of the race is actually beginning to help the grass roots candidates. Huckabee, Paul, and Gary Coleman included.

Huckabee is a scary candidate for Hillary indeed...but what that really means is that the more mainstream a candidate appears, the less likely their opponent can defeat him or her easily. That sounds like Duveger's Law there....

by risenmessiah 2007-12-06 02:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Polls in the December prior to the election are worth about the paper they are printed on.  Who knows whether Huckabee will be the nominee and who knows what issues he may or may not have.

Now I do think based on the limited amount I have seen of him that Huckabee is a dangerous candidate for the Dems.  However, lots of candidates have come back from "the dead" much later in the cycle.  Remember, George HW Bush was 17 pts down after the Dem convention in 1988 and Bill Clinton was dead last, behind Ross Perot, just before the Dem convention in 1992.  We have a long ways to go.

by John Mills 2007-12-06 03:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

I think Huckabee would be tough too but he has some real weaknesses worth noting:

1) He's the one Republican candidate who would significantly diminish or even erase the Repub advantage on national security. The man has no foreign policy experience at all, and he just doesn't convey a sense of stature the way say, Giuliani does. If the Dems begin to write this narrative now, even his geniality won't save him. Case in point, his answer on the NIE yesterday.

2) He's vulnerable on his "fair tax" plan. It's an idea which even many conservatives dislike - there was a recent NRO column tearing it apart, and it's so radical it has the potential to turn many people off once they know about it. I don't think many people are paying attention to his advocacy of the issue right now, but look for more on it as he gains momentum.

3) He'll divide the Republican party. The effect on the Republican party would be like what would happen with Giuliani, but inverted - instead of social conservatives tearing away, moderate fiscal conservatives and business types might bolt to Clinton or Obama.

4) He's the candidate who most resembles Bush. Which 28% of the country might be fine with, but the idea of not reelecting Bush will resonate in a lot of swing states.

by animated 2007-12-06 03:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

I don't give a damn what that poll says 12 months of attacks against Hillary or Obama or Edwards will make those numbers dwindle in the South.  Regardless of the poll, I would put money Hillary doesn't beat Huckabee in Arkansas and Huckabee sweeps the south, with the possible exception of Florida or Virginia.  Same with Obama; he might win Florida or Virginia but it will be a battle.  Our path lies west... the midwest and the west will be our salvation... States like Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, Ohio and Missouri are winnable and will be what puts us over the top regardless of the candidate.  

But overall agreed, Huckabee is dangerous and we desperately need to destroy him now so that either Mitt wins (who will be an easy win) or Huckabee is damaged.  

by yitbos96bb 2007-12-06 04:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Huckabee's race to lose

Huckabee has always been the Repunblican candidate that scares me. The half-sane man in the asylum is king, or something like that. He is the only candidate who, TO DATE, has seemed both intelligent and likable. We'll see how long that likability lasts if he is a frontrunner. Also, don't write off the released rapist story just yet. It is the corporate wing of the GOP that controls the mass media, and they can make it stick around easily if they chose.

by anoregonreader 2007-12-06 04:53PM | 0 recs
If you guys are so scared of him

Then take the 15/1 or 20/1 on Huckabee becoming president. It's available right now. Check PoliticalBetting.com and they have links to all the sites that take action.

No thank you, from my standpoint. It's horrible value.

IMO, the two frontrunners are understated on sites like this. Those big states that decide the delegate count are not going to change dramatically from where they've been for an entire year, or more.

Remember, the same people who are projecting the massive bump out of Iowa and New Hampshire based on historical trends were the ones most confident that the so-called incumbent rule would boost Kerry over Bush in '04.

I rely on historical statewide trends myself in the general election, but IMO the primaries are an entirely different matter. Give me long term strength and leads in national polls, not someone trying to climb through the rafters based on late surge and a couple of early states. Kerry could make a comeback since he led early and was the presumed nominee early in the process. Everything tends to drift back to the beginning. That's why McCain is showing some rekindling now. But the base still distrusts him.

Huckabee will not be our opponent, at least not atop the ticket.

by Gary Kilbride 2007-12-07 01:25AM | 0 recs

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