Zogby Iowa and NH Polls
by Todd Beeton, Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 08:12:05 AM EST
Zogby International has released its latest polling out of Iowa (514 LVs, Nov. 29-Dec. 1, MOE 4.4%) and New Hampshire (502 LVs, Dec. 1-3, MOE 4.5%) and they show a more stable race in those early states than we've seen in recent polls.
|Dec. 1 (Nov. 6)||RCP 5-poll Ave.||Dec. 3 (Sept. 28)||RCP 5-poll Ave.|
|Clinton||27 (28)||26.6||32 (38)||32.6|
|Obama||24 (25)||26.6||21 (23)||23|
|Edwards||21 (21)||22.8||16 (12)||16|
|Richardson||8 (9)||7.4||6 (8)||9.2|
|Biden||5 (3)||4.6||4 (2)|
|Kucinich||2 (<1)||3 (3)|
|Dodd||1 (1)||<1 (2)|
|Not Sure||11 (12)||17 (10)|
This Iowa poll has got to be music to the Clinton team's ears as Clinton remains in a statistically insignificant lead and Obama shows no upward momentum whatsoever. In addition, the internals look good for her as well, especially this:
Since last month, however, Clinton was able to solidify her standing among some likely caucus-goers by increasing the number of people who said she would be their second choice.
Last month, Obama and Edwards were much more preferred as a second choice among those candidates who appear to be unviable under Democratic caucus rules. Clinton appears to be gaining ground among those who might consider experience to be an important factor in choosing a nominee - she wins the lion's share of support among those who make Biden their first choice, and she does well among those who would first choose New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.
Clinton also leads among women while Obama leads among men and independents.
The Zogby New Hampshire poll confirms what we've seen in other recent polls out of the state, namely that Clinton drops to the mid-30s, Obama is stable in the low 20s and Edwards rises to the mid to upper teens. Significantly for Edwards, he cuts Obama's lead over him to just 5%. The biggest beneficiary of Clinton's fall though is Undecideds who surged 7% since September.
Interestingly, two upcoming polls, the new Strategic Vision Iowa poll and the new Washington Post New Hampshire Poll, appear poised to somewhat contradict Zogby's findings. Political Wire got advance looks.
Political Wire got an advance look at a new Strategic Vision poll in Iowa that shows Sen. Barack Obama expanding his lead in the first caucus state with 32% support, followed by John Edwards and Sen. Hillary Clinton tied for second at 25%.
And in New Hampshire:
Political Wire has seen early results from a new New Hampshire poll that shows Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead stabilizing after losing ground to Sen. Barack Obama in recent months.
If we're to take anything away from these contradictory polling results it's that the race for the first two states is still extremely volatile on the Democratic side. This point is made even clearer by Zogby's New Hampshire results, which not only show Undecideds rising but also show:
About half of those supporting Clinton and Obama here say their support is rock solid and will not change, the poll shows. Among Obama supporters, the other half (50%) said their support is strong but that they could change their minds before Election Day. For Clinton, 44% said their support is strong but they could change their minds.
Edwards supporters are more likely to change their minds before the primary than are Obama and Clinton supporters, the survey shows. Nearly two out of three 62% of Edwards backers said it is either somewhat or very likely they could change their minds, while 52% of Obama supporters and 47% of Clinton backers said the same thing.