Zogby Iowa and NH Polls

Zogby International has released its latest polling out of Iowa (514 LVs, Nov. 29-Dec. 1, MOE 4.4%) and New Hampshire (502 LVs, Dec. 1-3, MOE 4.5%) and they show a more stable race in those early states than we've seen in recent polls.

IANH
Dec. 1 (Nov. 6)RCP 5-poll Ave.Dec. 3 (Sept. 28)RCP 5-poll Ave.
Clinton27 (28)26.632 (38)32.6
Obama24 (25)26.621 (23)23
Edwards21 (21)22.816 (12)16
Richardson8 (9)7.46 (8)9.2
Biden5 (3)4.64 (2)
Kucinich2 (<1)3 (3)
Dodd1 (1)<1 (2)
Not Sure11 (12)17 (10)

This Iowa poll has got to be music to the Clinton team's ears as Clinton remains in a statistically insignificant lead and Obama shows no upward momentum whatsoever. In addition, the internals look good for her as well, especially this:

Since last month, however, Clinton was able to solidify her standing among some likely caucus-goers by increasing the number of people who said she would be their second choice.

Last month, Obama and Edwards were much more preferred as a second choice among those candidates who appear to be unviable under Democratic caucus rules. Clinton appears to be gaining ground among those who might consider experience to be an important factor in choosing a nominee - she wins the lion's share of support among those who make Biden their first choice, and she does well among those who would first choose New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.

Clinton also leads among women while Obama leads among men and independents.

The Zogby New Hampshire poll confirms what we've seen in other recent polls out of the state, namely that Clinton drops to the mid-30s, Obama is stable in the low 20s and Edwards rises to the mid to upper teens. Significantly for Edwards, he cuts Obama's lead over him to just 5%. The biggest beneficiary of Clinton's fall though is Undecideds who surged 7% since September.

Interestingly, two upcoming polls, the new Strategic Vision Iowa poll and the new Washington Post New Hampshire Poll, appear poised to somewhat contradict Zogby's findings. Political Wire got advance looks.

Political Wire got an advance look at a new Strategic Vision poll in Iowa that shows Sen. Barack Obama expanding his lead in the first caucus state with 32% support, followed by John Edwards and Sen. Hillary Clinton tied for second at 25%.

And in New Hampshire:

Political Wire has seen early results from a new New Hampshire poll that shows Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead stabilizing after losing ground to Sen. Barack Obama in recent months.

If we're to take anything away from these contradictory polling results it's that the race for the first two states is still extremely volatile on the Democratic side. This point is made even clearer by Zogby's New Hampshire results, which not only show Undecideds rising but also show:

About half of those supporting Clinton and Obama here say their support is rock solid and will not change, the poll shows. Among Obama supporters, the other half (50%) said their support is strong but that they could change their minds before Election Day. For Clinton, 44% said their support is strong but they could change their minds.

Edwards supporters are more likely to change their minds before the primary than are Obama and Clinton supporters, the survey shows. Nearly two out of three – 62% – of Edwards backers said it is either somewhat or very likely they could change their minds, while 52% of Obama supporters and 47% of Clinton backers said the same thing.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Democratic Primary, Iowa, New Hampshire, zogby poll (all tags)

Comments

19 Comments

Re: Zogby Iowa and NH Polls

I think the new hampshire poll cited by political wire is an upcoming Marist poll not the washington post poll , I don't believe that has leaked yet.

by lori 2007-12-05 08:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Iowa and NH Polls

I would think NH polls will be pretty good for Clinton this week, she has to get some sympathy support from the hostage thing.

by nevadadem 2007-12-05 08:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Iowa and NH Polls

You know I don't think so .

He support would probably remain at 10 - 15 range , I don't think she will get much support due to the hostage thing , i tend not to view such things in political terms but as a personal tragedy.

Whether 10 - 15 range is enough to withstand a loss in Iowa if it happens is something i can't tell anymore.

But NH has always been good to the clintons.

by lori 2007-12-05 08:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Iowa and NH Polls

Wasn't it just last week that Mark Penn said that Zogby was unreliable?  Will certainly be interesting to see if they tout these results.

by Dee 2007-12-05 08:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Iowa and NH Polls

It would be interesting, but there is significant difference between Zogby's interactive online polls and these primary state polls.  

by JeremiahTheMessiah 2007-12-05 08:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Iowa and NH Polls

Zogby interactive online polls are UNRELIABLE.

Everyone on here says it, and so does mark penn, because quite frankly, its true.

by sepulvedaj3 2007-12-05 09:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Iowa and NH Polls
And Penn is right.
by Big Tent Democrat 2007-12-05 09:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Iowa and NH Polls

Biggest indicator on Clinton, that she:
wins the lion's share of support among those who make Biden their first choice, and she does well among those who would first choose New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.

That Obama and Edwards swap 2nd choices isn't as important if they are reaching a threshold of 15% already. I suppose in some of the rural areas, that will help Edwards, but it's Biden and Richardson that are going to be like Gephardt, and fall short in a lot of places. From what we've seen elsewhere, Richardson's votes go to Edwards too, and I'm not surprised that Clinton does well among Biden's supporters.

We could see a situation where the entrance polling shows a different leader than the caucus results.

by Jerome Armstrong 2007-12-05 08:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Iowa and NH Polls

Um, TODD.

You forgot this one O/35 E/25 C/25

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/1 2/05/obama_opens_wider_lead_in_iowa_huck abee_tops_romney.html

by BlueDiamond 2007-12-05 08:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Iowa and NH Polls

oops. It's 32 But he's still in the lead.

by BlueDiamond 2007-12-05 09:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Iowa and NH Polls

Maybe actually try to read the post?

by Jerome Armstrong 2007-12-05 09:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Iowa and NH Polls
Oh, I see it now. Thanks.
by BlueDiamond 2007-12-05 09:07PM | 0 recs
The media must hate it ...

Their whole idea - their basic story over the last 2 weeks -  that Obama is surging and Clinton is sagging, is basically BS.

Zogby, LA Times, Quinnipiac, Pew ... all show Clinton still doing very well, commanding everywhere except Iowa which is a 3 way dogfight to the end.

by dpANDREWS 2007-12-05 09:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Iowa and NH Polls

once again, lol it comes down to second choice for richardson, dodd, biden and Kucinich....

by sepulvedaj3 2007-12-05 09:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Iowa and NH Polls
Zogby sucks. His polls are simply not reliable. Not becuase He CAN'T poll, but because he skews his pols to get results he wants for various reasons depending upon who is paying him, what will give him more press coverage, etc. He'll try to get it right in his last polls, but I would not trust anything he polls before the last one.
by Big Tent Democrat 2007-12-05 09:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Iowa and NH Polls

Clinton scored the Democratic half of the NH teachers union endorsement today too.   Good day for Clinton.

by dpANDREWS 2007-12-05 10:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Iowa and NH Polls

"Clinton also leads among women while Obama leads among men and independents."

Doesn't this sentence strike anyone else as funny?

by whomever1 2007-12-05 10:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Iowa and NH Polls

Thanks, Todd, for actually reporting the poll results, rather than just skewing your interpretation in favor of one candidate or the other. It's very refreshing and allows for a much more civil level of discussion of the results.

by Hoomai29 2007-12-05 10:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Iowa and NH Polls

"the race for the first two states is still extremely volatile on the Democratic side."

Gimme a break.  At most, there may still be the potential for volatility on the Dem side.  But Hillary's mild drop in NH, and the tiny changes in Iowa, don't equate to actual volatility.

The GOP side has volatility.  Compared to them, the Dem side varies about as much as the sunrise from one day to the next.

by RT 2007-12-05 12:37PM | 0 recs

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