KY-Gov Prediction: Beshear 59 - Fletcher 41
by Jonathan Singer, Tue Nov 06, 2007 at 10:59:32 AM EST
As Todd noted, it's election day in Kentucky and the Republicans are up to their normal dirty tricks. But gauging by polling out of the states, it seems that these tricks may be for naught, with a new SurveyUSA poll putting Democrat Steve Beshear up 20 points over incumbent Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher and even the folks at Insider Advantage, who have consistently found Beshear's lead to be significantly lower than that of any other poll, estimating Beshear's margin of victory at 12 points based on numbers they have seen but apparently have not released.
Earlier polls below the fold...
If I had to make a guess as to the results of this race, I'd probably say Beshear will win 59 percent to 41 percent. I'm not always so good at these things, though I did correctly predict Jim Bunning's 50.7 percent to 49.3 percent victory over Dan Mongiardo in the 2004 Kentucky Senate election, for whatever that's worth (notice, too, that my other predictions on election eve 2004 were more than a bit off...). How do you think this race will break?
|Insider Advantage (.doc)|