NH Fox News Poll: Bad News For Clinton, Good News For Edwards

Latest Fox News poll out of New Hampshire (500 LVs, Nov. 27-29, MOE 4%) has been released.

On the Democratic side, contrary to the past several polls, Fox finds Clinton falling. While there are no trendlines, Clinton's 30% is her lowest level of support in the state since July and is 3.5% below her recent average. One thing that this poll would appear to confirm, though, is that Obama's momentum in Iowa is not carrying over to New Hampshire as his level of support tracks with his recent average. Edwards on the other hand is exceeding his. Edwards's movement in New Hampshire appears to be real.

CandidateFox NewsRCP 4-poll Ave.
Clinton3033.5
Obama2322.5
Edwards1715.5
Richardson1210.8
Biden3
Kucinich3
Dodd1
Don't Know12

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Democratic nomination, fox news poll, New Hampshire (all tags)

Comments

19 Comments

Looks like the race is

tightening.

An Iowa victory and even a second place finish in New Hampshire would put Edwards in a good position.  

And as Edwards looks better, it may bring some unions in to support him.  

by TomP 2007-11-30 02:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Looks like the race is tightening

I think second in IA and a close third in NH would be fine for Edwards.  He just has to stay close until the "Hillary inevitability" turns into a tight race.  Hillary has to win big in IA and NH, or she turns into a pumpkin.

by NM Ward Chair 2007-11-30 05:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Looks like the race is tightening

Hillary doesn't have to win Iowa.   It all depends on the just what the percentages are between Hillary, Obama, and Edwards.  And also in play is how the headlines read, e.g., if Huckabee beats Romney.

Now if she loses New Hampshire, that's a different proposition.

by InigoMontoya 2007-11-30 06:58PM | 0 recs
As always, when the benchmark poll ...

... is released, it is important to avoid describing movement where there may be none.

After all, what makes pooled polls so effective close to a contest is the number of different polls, and therefore polling methodologies, available for the pool.

So when a new poll is added to the pool, like this one in NH, it may be that the race is tightening, but it may also be that the race was already a little bit tighter than the existing polls were picking up.

by BruceMcF 2007-12-01 03:47AM | 0 recs
Re: NH Fox News Poll: Bad News

If Richardson drops out after IA I wonder if it will create enough time for his votes to shift there to another candidate? Since, he's running for VP (yeah, yeah- I know he's 'not') will he throw his weight behind Clinton? That and Gore's endorsements are the two biggies outside of scandal and shock that I can see being additional factors.

by bruh21 2007-11-30 02:11PM | 0 recs
Re: NH Fox News Poll: Bad News

If Edwards drops out after IA where will his votes go?

by Stephen Cassidy 2007-11-30 02:22PM | 0 recs
Re: NH Fox News Poll: Bad News

I think - this is just my view from the gut-- that a narrative is forming with voters that if Edwards drop, his votes will go to Obama, and if Obama drops out, Obama's votes will go to Edwards. Edwards and Obama have different core voters, but they really do have one thing in common- we must move the party beyond the 1990s to reflect the times we live in now rather than then.

by bruh21 2007-11-30 02:25PM | 0 recs
Re: NH Fox News Poll: Bad News

If Edwards drops out after Iowa, he'll endorse Obama.  Gut feeling.

by Vox Populi 2007-11-30 03:45PM | 0 recs
Richardson will probably wait

until he loses in New Mexico if he can.

by okamichan13 2007-11-30 02:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Richardson will probably wait

If he does that he will i think hurt clinton since right now he's polling at 10 percent. but thats just again gut talking.

by bruh21 2007-11-30 02:36PM | 0 recs
Re: NH Fox News Poll: Bad News

Richardson won't drop until Feb. 6, even if the news is reeeeeeal bad.  He has the bucks, and it's been his plan all along.  Remember, he expects to do well (meaning in the top 3) in NV as well as in IA or NH.  Now, I don't think our guv is going to make a big enough splash to stay in after 2/5, but there's absolutely no way he'll drop out until he sees the fork sticking out from between his ribs.

by NM Ward Chair 2007-11-30 05:49PM | 0 recs
Re: NH Fox News Poll: Bad News

There's no reason for Richardson to drop out after IA ... he has plenty of money in the bank to run through to the next events ... maybe to run through to Feb. 5th unless he busts the bank trying to get a break-out in one of the other early events.

by BruceMcF 2007-12-01 03:48AM | 0 recs
Re: NH Fox News Poll: Bad News For Clinton, Good N

What is the New Hampshire effort like for the 2nd tier guys?  With the primary being less than a week away from Iowa, I wonder if anyone not running for VP is going to drop out before NH.

by Piuma 2007-11-30 02:22PM | 0 recs
Re: NH Fox News Poll: Bad News For Clinton, Good N

well biden just announced he isn't interested in being SoS so that seems to leave him out of the VP sweeps as he seems to be making a commitment to go for it. that really just leaves Richardson who has been running for vp for a while now I feel.

by bruh21 2007-11-30 02:26PM | 0 recs
Of course, they always say that ...

... I remember when George Herbert Walker wasn't interested in the Vice Presidency in 1980. That was, of course, before Ronnie "use illegal immigrants to bust unions" Ray-Gun locked up the Republican nomination (giving a big boost to the process of creating the Replicant Party).

by BruceMcF 2007-12-01 03:51AM | 0 recs
Re: NH Fox News Poll:

This is terrific news for Edwards. Now two polls released today show him at 17% support in NH. As I said in my poll diary today, he's been gradually moving up there over time and now he's in striking distance if he were to win Iowa. I think his energy and working class messages are catching on there.

by Progressive America 2007-11-30 03:09PM | 0 recs
Actually, if he wins IA and ...

... comes second in NH to Senator Obama, that would be a big boost to narrowing the race down to John Edwards vs Senator Obama ...

... after all, the "comeback kid" storyline that Senator Clinton would look to for overcoming an Iowa defeat does not work very well without an actual comeback to point to. Given Senator Clinton's long-standing lead in the NH polls, anything less than a victory in NH will start to see the band-wagon jumpers looking for another band-wagon, and a third place finish would be brutal news for the presumptive front-runner.

by BruceMcF 2007-12-01 03:58AM | 0 recs
Re: NH Fox News Poll: Bad News For Clinton, Good N

I think that reflects the cross over between Edwards and Obama people know they don't want Hillary but are trying to decide who can take her out.

by smucci 2007-11-30 06:53PM | 0 recs
Its also normal for a candidate that is fading ...

... but has a strong base of support for her "committed" percentage to rise as her total support slips.

That is, after all, the ratio of committed to total support, and it can rise from the numerator rising and/or from the denominator falling.

by BruceMcF 2007-12-01 03:53AM | 0 recs

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