KY-Sen: McConnell in Some Real Trouble

MediaCzech noted this already over in Breaking Blue and bluegrassroots has the story as well, but the latest Research 2000 poll (.pdf) out of Kentucky shows some real problems for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, whose disapproval rating in the poll (46 percent) is greater than his approval rating (45 percent).

McConnell 46
Chandler 41

McConnell 45
Luallen 40

McConnell 46
Stumbo 37

McConnell 45
Horne 34

As you can see, McConnell is having trouble getting above the mid-40s against any Democrat polled. These numbers aren't terribly surprising given that earlier this year McConnell commissioned clearly biased polling -- and even then he only polled at 55 percent against a named Democrat. While the McConnell camp might suggest that Research 2000 didn't push respondents strongly enough, with as much as one-fifth of respondents stating that they were undecided. Yet given that McConnell has represented the state in the Senate for more than two decades yet still is polling well under 50 percent in named head-to-head matchups against potential Democratic challengers says a lot.

Looking through these matchups, Democratic Congressman Ben Chandler doesn't seem terribly likely to run, at least potentially due to the fact that the state's other seat is up in 2010 and Jim Bunning appears even more vulnerable than McConnell.

The candidate who runs strongest in the poll other than Chandler is Crit Luallen, who is currently running for reelection as state auditor (the election is in eight days). If that position sounds familiar to you, it could be because one of the Democrats' strongest Senate candidates in 2006, Claire McCaskill, served as state auditor of neighboring Missouri when she ran for Senate. Perhaps that's a coincidence -- but then perhaps it's not. We should know more about Luallen's ballot strength in a little more than a week.

The other two candidates polled, Attorney General Greg Stumbo and Iraq War veteran Andrew Horne, both poll a bit lower than either Chandler or Luallen, but not so much so that one would assume at this point that they can't win.

Overall, the takeaway from this set of data is clear, though: Mitch McConnell is weak and beatable.

Tags: Kentucky, KY-Sen, Mitch McConnell, Senate 2008 (all tags)



Re: KY-Sen: McConnell in Some Real Trouble

Hillary's people should get involved in this thing behind the scenes.  For her to get much of her agenda through once she's in the WH, she needs to cut the head off the GOP snake.  That head is Mitch McConnell.

He alone is crafty and talented enough to much up her agenda.  The senate GOP is rudderless without him.  He is their best leader in quite some time.  

If we we want comprehensive health  care reform and some good judges, let's go get him.

by jgarcia 2007-10-29 02:44PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Sen: McConnell in Some Real Trouble

Anyone know the how interested Luallen is in running?

by blueryan 2007-10-29 03:22PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Sen: McConnell in Some Real Trouble

Very. So is Horne. It will likely be a Horne-Luallen matchup.

Basically, Claire McKaskill vs. Jim Webb.

I think both would be great Senators. I think this candidate has the best shot, though.

by MediaCzech 2007-10-30 02:48AM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Sen: McConnell in Some Real Trouble

I think this seat is more likely to switch than the seat now occupied by Susan Collins in Maine.

by Boilermaker 2007-10-30 06:18AM | 0 recs


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