KY-03: Hard to Go After Yarmuth with Fletcher Approval at 24%

Last fall Democrat John Yarmuth upset incumbent GOP Rep. Ann Northup in Kentucky's third congressional district, which she had represented for a Decade despite its slight Democratic lean. Republicans, who have recruited an at least somewhat credible challenger for Yarmuth, are hoping to retake the district next fall, and at least the Rothenberg Political Report and the Cook Political Report (.pdf) list the race among those potentially competitive this cycle.

But looking into some of the crosstabs from the new Research 2000 (.pdf) poll on the Kentucky Governor race I mentioned last night, a real question is raised about the Republicans' ability to play in district 3. According to the survey, Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher's approval rating is 38 percent across the state. In five of the state's six congressional districts, Fletcher's approval rating varies little, ranging from 37 percent in the sixth district (the only district in the state other than the third represented by a Democrat) to 44 percent in district 2.

However, in the third district Fletcher's approval rating sits at just 24 percent, with 74 percent disapproving -- 11 percent more than in any other district in the state. This difference, while on the border of statistical significance given the relatively small size of subsamples, does suggest that the Republican brand in the third district isn't particularly strong at this point. Combined with polling that shows that Hillary Clinton, for one, is quite competitive in the Bluegrass state (leading Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul and narrowly trailing Fred Thompson and John McCain), as is Al Gore (who leads Giuliani in the state, though within the margin of error), and one gets the impression that it's going to be a lot more difficult for the GOP to defeat Yarmuth this cycle than they might otherwise believe (even leaving aside Yarmuth's current $536,000 to $64,000 lead in cash-on-hand over his potential rival).

Update [2007-10-26 16:43:28 by Jonathan Singer]: The headline for this post has been fixed.

Tags: House 2008, John Yarmuth, Kentucky, KY-03 (all tags)




DIstrict 3 is the most urban, and most liberal, district in the Commonwealth.  It is basically coextensive with Jefferson County, which includes Louisville.

by KTinOhio 2007-10-26 12:08PM | 0 recs
Yarmuth is the epitome of what a successful

freshman Democrat who has balls looks like.  

He'll win.  And he'll do that being - and behaving like - a true blue progressive.  He's one of my faves in the 2006 class.

by jgarcia 2007-10-26 12:21PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-03: Hard to Go After Yarmuth with Bush Appr

Wait.  Is it Bush or Fletcher whose approval is at only 24% in the third?

by bruorton 2007-10-26 12:38PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-03: Hard to Go After Yarmuth with Bush Appr

Thanks for the correction.

by Jonathan Singer 2007-10-26 12:52PM | 0 recs
He will win easily

Yarmuth will win in 2008 with close to 60% of the vote.  His challenger is a third tier opponent who was a co-conspirator with Ernie Fletcher.  

by Toddwell 2007-10-26 12:49PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-03: Hard to Go After Yarmuth with Fletcher

can't even begin to tell you how proud we are of Yarmuth here in KY, unlike my BushDog Ben Chandler. At BlueGrassRoots, we have an ActBlue page set up for him, if anyone wants to contribute.

by MediaCzech 2007-10-27 05:49AM | 0 recs


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