KY-Gov: Fletcher Back Under 40 Percent Two Weeks Out

A couple of weeks ago Kentucky Republicans had a modicum of hope. The state's GOP Governor, Ernie Fletcher, finally hit 40 percent in public head-to-head polling matching him up against Democrat Steve Beshear, whom he faces in an election two weeks from today. Unfortunately for the Republicans, however, that survey appears to have been an aberration. Take a look at the latest numbers from the race:

10/104056Insider Advantage (.doc)
9/24-2535451-Month Average
9/24-10/2137.754.06-Month Average
Earlier polls below the fold...

A lot of folks were understandably concerned by the results of the weekend's gubernatorial election in Louisiana, with Republican Bobby Jindal winning with 53 percent, thus abrogating a need for a runoff. Even though Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu also won his race with 57 percent of the vote, which bodes well for the hopes of his sister Mary, who is up for reelection to her Senate seat next fall, the big loss in the gubernatorial election had some within the Democratic ranks worrying.

That said, the fact that Democrat Steve Beshear appears headed to receive somewhere upwards of 60 percent in his bid against Governor Fletcher should have Republicans similarly concerned -- particularly given the fact that they, too, must defend a Senate seat in the state next fall and, what's more, Kentucky could conceivably be in play for the Democrats in a way that Louisiana most likely is not.

Bluegrass Poll
9/13-183555Research 2000
8/4-63758Lane Report
7/14-163659Insider Advantage
7/8-93841Rasmussen Reports

Tags: Governor 2007, Kentucky, KY-Gov (all tags)



Re: KY-Gov: Fletcher Back Under 40 Percent Two Wee

I don' think these races have anything to do with each other. It has been conventional wisdom for sometime that Jindal was going to get the governorship in LA. Beshear has had the same momentum. In my opinion, these are more localized races and therefore aren't swayed as much by national opinion/events.

by apolitik 2007-10-23 06:05PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Gov: Fletcher Back Under 40 Percent

In LA, the state's Katrina report card isn't any better than the federal government's, which is to say disgraceful.  There SHOULD be ramifications at the state level against Democrats in LA.  Jindal's victory was not a surprise.  Whether that backlash translates to Landrieu as well depends on whether it becomes a general "anti-incumbent" thing or is just related to the people involved (i.e. executive branch / state government, neither of which Landrieu is a part of).

My personal opinion is that Landrieu should be fairly safe since the Katrina backlash in LA should be anti-GOP in the Presidential election next year.

by NJIndependent 2007-10-23 07:18PM | 0 recs
Is KY legislature on ballot also? coattails?

I just got back from Louisiana & go there often.  Actually took someone to the polls to vote on Saturday. Folks there dislike Bush because of Katrina but they loathe Hillary. Landrieu will be facing a strong headwind if Hillary is at the top of the ticket.  In Mitch Landrieu's race for Lt. Guv., even tho a Repub was on ballot, he had no money and the state Rs made only a minimal effort to help him.  They were focused on the Jindal race for Gov.  They gave Mitch a "pass".

As for KY, is the state legislature on the ballot?  Will a Bashear solid win help increase the Ds in the KY legislature?

by pasuburbdem1 2007-10-24 03:04AM | 0 recs


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