MA-05: Results Thread -- Tsongas Wins

Polls closed at 8pm ET and results can be found HERE as they come in.

In less than stellar anecdotal news, Blue Mass Group reported light turnout in Democratic areas and "brisk" turnout in Republican areas.

Right now, with 3% reporting, Tsongas is ahead 59%-38%

Update [2007-10-16 20:59:8 by Todd Beeton]:BlueMassGroup is reporting quite a tight race (caveat: not sure of BMG's source):

With 137 of 196 precincts:

Tsongas 38,501

Ogonowski 36,395

If my math is correct, that's 51.4 to 48.6 with 70% reporting. Not good.

Update [2007-10-16 21:8:11 by Todd Beeton]: %'s holding steady with 75% reporting (per BMG.)

Update [2007-10-16 23:1:51 by Jonathan Singer]: The Associated Press has called the race, with Tsongas leading 51 percent to 46 percent with 86 percent of precincts reporting.

Update [2007-10-16 23:7:19 by Jonathan Singer]:The Lowell Sun has the final margin at 51 percent to 45 percent with every precint in.

Tags: jim ogonowski, ma-05, niki tsongas (all tags)

Comments

32 Comments

Re: MA-05: Results Thread

I wonder where this 3% is coming from?

by Justify My Vote 2007-10-16 04:40PM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread

Win or lose, Niki Tsongas didn't/doesn't seem to be the best candidate on earth.  I live not far from her district (well, nothing's far when you live in Massachusetts) and have heard from many local Dems who say the same thing, that she's been a VERY poor candidate and campaigner....AND much more conservative than people think.

Eldridge had FAR more energy than Tsongas.  But she damn well better pull this off!  But if not, it's not the end of the world because we'll beat Ogonoswki when we get a better candidate in 2008!!!

by jgarcia 2007-10-16 05:03PM | 0 recs
what an embarrassment

if these numbers are correct.

by John DE 2007-10-16 05:07PM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread

when was the last time MA had a GOP congressman? Like 1996?

This would be VERY bad PR for the party if a MA seat went Republican, even if it's a given we'll defeat him in 2008....the Dems don't need this right now.

by need some wood 2007-10-16 05:08PM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread

Peter Blute (R) was elected fom the 3rd district in 1994.  He was defeated in 1996.  

MA has the biggest all-Democratic delegation in the country.  I'd consider it a real insult/loss if that were broken today.

by Sandwich Repairman 2007-10-16 05:15PM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread

Blute was originally elected in 1992 -- when MA-3 went from blue to red, along with another Mass. seat (MA-6) -- Rep. Torkildesn ? I think -- that also switched to Repug in 1992 (yeah, at the same time Bill Clinton was winning the Presidency, which just goes to show that there's often a detachment between national & local races & trends).  Both Mass seats returned to the Democrats in 1996, I believe.

by silver spring 2007-10-17 05:18AM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread

Is that "Not good" as in you'd like the margin to be better?

Or is that "Not good" as in the outstanding votes are from the part of the district where the GOP candidate should do better?

by Carl Nyberg 2007-10-16 05:10PM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread

I'm sure "It's time for a change" can really reasonate in a state like Massachusetts among independent voters.  And if there is such a thing as a conservative Massachusetts district i believe this is one of them so it can't be a huge surprise.

by Justify My Vote 2007-10-16 05:13PM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread

Actually, I believe the 3rd district has MA's highest percentage of registered Republicans.  But the Globe points out that statewide, 40% of MA voters are registered as Democrats, while only 33% are in the 5th.  Remember that Meehan was always a moderate--perhaps that wasn't merely because he hoped to run for Governor.

by Sandwich Repairman 2007-10-16 05:17PM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread

49% precincts reporting and Tsongas is losing with 49%

This is really bad. Hope she wins!

by American1989 2007-10-16 05:16PM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread

Tsongas delcares victory (Via BMG):

http://www.lowellsun.com/breakingnews/ci _7196772

by tparty 2007-10-16 05:18PM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread

Hooray!!  Now I won't feel guilty rooting for the Indians.  ;)

by Sandwich Repairman 2007-10-16 05:24PM | 0 recs
by Max Friedman 2007-10-16 05:25PM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread

Wow, I'm shocked it'd be this close.

Even a narrow loss in Massachusetts can give Republicans bragging rights.

by Namtrix 2007-10-16 05:30PM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread

I really hope this does'nt boost Republicans like Hackett did for us a few years back.

by Socks The Cat 2007-10-16 05:40PM | 0 recs
a moral victory...

....it's going to give the GOP rocket fuel.  We'll see how the fundraising numbers are after this result.

by mikelow1885 2007-10-16 06:08PM | 0 recs
Looking behind the labels

The Repbulican ran away from Bush, and he hammered illegal immigration. This is an issue that Democrats have to figure out how to address, because this will be the wedge issue Republicans have been looking for. They are jerks on it, but they succeed in scaring people.  

by nascardem 2007-10-16 06:24PM | 0 recs
but

illegal immigration was the big Republican issue in 2004.  It didn't seem to work then.  That's not to say that it's an important issue, but I don't think it is enough by itself.

by John DE 2007-10-16 07:17PM | 0 recs
Re: but

Actually, the Republicans didn't bring up immigration until the 109th Congress (2005-06).  I don't remember any mention of the issue in 2004.  The GOP tried to make this an election issue in 2006, but I'm not sure any issue they raised last year could've prevented the gains we made.

by Sandwich Repairman 2007-10-16 08:49PM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread
Well, Tsongas won, 51-45. While that is really close given where it is, it's also good because competition/threats like this is what keeps politicians from being complacent. Of course, it's easier to write that now that she's won.
by Nautilator 2007-10-16 06:38PM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread

There's no reason....NONE on god's green earth, that this race, in this political climate, that someone with an "R" by their name should get this close.  

Tsongas is embarrassing.

by jgarcia 2007-10-16 06:51PM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread

Jgarcia, you know this because you observed the campaign or the candidate do what?  You are obviously disgusted by this candidate based on more than just the result.  Do you have more?

Also, in general I wouldn't get too hung up on a special election during the playoffs in MA and its reflection of what will happen in 2008.  Dynamics and #s are very different.

The observation from a comment above about running from Bush and pushing immigration do sound like the likely lay of the land in the presidential once we get in to the general.

by Orlando 2007-10-16 07:01PM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread

A win is a win.  It's my district and it is one of the two or three where a Republican has a chance to win, especially in a low turnout special election.  A 6% margin is nothing to get excited about.  Tsongas was not the best candidate but she is in and will be able to stay for as long as she wants.

by Thaddeus 2007-10-16 07:09PM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread

51 percent to 45 percent is a bit closer than I would have thought it should be, but the Republicans had some good consultants working on this race, especially along the lines of targeting, so I'm not surprised that they got close. It was a good thing that people like Kerry realized to jump in and help raise the level of action for Tsongas, or it would have been a lot closer, maybe a disaster... but as such, it's a steady win.

by Jerome Armstrong 2007-10-16 07:11PM | 0 recs
It's no suprise. The Republican

basically ran as an independent and was an able candidate.  Tsongas ran a pretty poor campaign, and this is one of our most conservative districts.  She won.  I predict she'll win re-election by a comfortable margin.

by bookgrl 2007-10-16 07:43PM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread -- Tsongas Wins

We've known since after the primary that this was going to be closer than we wanted too, so no one should be surprised at the result.  She ended exactly where many of us thought she would.  It would have been an entirely different message by the voters if she lost.

by Justify My Vote 2007-10-16 07:34PM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread -- Tsongas Wins

The end result with 100% reporting is a six point win for Tsongas. 51% to 45%. For all you "giddy" Republicans who say this is some sort of big "Moral Victory", remember this district is on the border of New Hampshire(a mostly conservative idependent/Republican state)

And, for the most part is mostly rural/wealthy, except for the Democratic stronghold of Lowell. This was also a OPEN SEAT with three independent candidates that carried nearly four percent of the total vote combinded that would have most likely gone to Tsongas by a good margin if it were just her and Ogonowski in the race.

This was also an OFF YEAR ELECTION. Tsongas also won with OVER 5O% OF THE VOTE! Not even BILL CLINTON got over 49% of the vote in 1996!

by vermillion 2007-10-16 08:15PM | 0 recs
Half Empty

I'm beginning to think that some of the more radical of our progressives here would have been happier if she had lost.

by nascardem 2007-10-17 02:56AM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread -- Tsongas Wins

This morning PBS attributed her win to Bush's veto of S-CHIP. Was S-CHIP really an issue here?

by antiHyde 2007-10-17 05:37AM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread -- Tsongas Wins

Yes. Ogonowski bizarrely refused to say what he would do with respect to overriding Bush's veto, even though he said the bill was a "bad bill."  And he got hammered for his refusal both by Tsongas and by the local press (as well as by bloggers like us, who took to calling him "Jim Idon'tknowski").  Conservative-ish local papers like the Lowell Sun endorsed Tsongas and prominently featured Ogo's "lack of candor" on SCHIP as a reason.

by david blue 2007-10-17 06:09AM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread -- Tsongas Wins

This is the closest the Dems would come to loosing a House seat in Mass. A Dem blowout in MA at the top of the ticket in 2008 will carry all the House Dem incumbents in, whether the GOP makes an issue of illegal immigration or not. If the illegal immigration issue did not defeat Tsongas now, it wont unseat her in 2008.

by Boilermaker 2007-10-17 06:17AM | 0 recs
Re: MA-05: Results Thread -- Tsongas Wins

New Hampshire is no longer a conservative GOP state. It is very blue and one of the GOP Senators is in very serious trouble. But agree that Dems probably wont loose any House seats in MA in 2008 because of the Dem blowout in the state at the top of the ticket.

by Boilermaker 2007-10-17 06:19AM | 0 recs

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