Clinton's plateau of peaking
by Jerome Armstrong, Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 10:08:21 AM EDT
Rasmussen, in Clinton is unstoppable?
There are still a lot of people backing an alternative. Particularly among the young millennial generation for Obama, and throughout the progressive blogosphere for Edwards, but neither group of supporters would be able to say with a straight face that they expected Clinton to be gaining in the race, at this point.
If Obama doesn't at least make a race of it ( his rise & crash already foretold on intrade), his future stock will be down quite a few notches below if he'd not made the race. Given the money he's got, and the organization that his campaign touts is there, he can't totally be dismissed. his downfall has been early enough in the race that he could time a rebound from the ashes, but it's a longshot.
Edwards too, given he's gone to accepting matching funds for his campaign, is actually going to have an even better 'dark horse' shot at making an upset. He's got to be considered strong still in Iowa, considering how out-spent he's been to this point. Up to another $20M for funding of his campaign will do wonders in the area of longevity of his chances, even if Clinton does win Iowa.
If Clinton wins Iowa and New Hampshire, neither Obama or Edwards is going to exit the race before Feb 2nd. They'll both look for enough delegates to deny Clinton the outright nomination, and it isn't beyond the realm to see them joining forces against Clinton.Update [2007-10-15 14:16:8 by Jerome Armstrong]:Edwards (email) landing the SEIU endorsement in Iowa helps him considerably: "I'll be returning to Iowa later today to receive a major endorsement. I was honored to learn that I have earned the support of the Iowa State Council of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) and from a number of other SEIU state councils across the country."