Vast Left Wing Conspiracy Swamps Outmatched Vast Right Wing Conspiracy

"Only a fully trained Jedi Knight with the Force as his ally, will conquer Vader and his Emperor."--Yoda

In 2004, Colorado was a beacon of hope in an otherwise bad year for Democrats. Democrats won both branches of the state legislature, picked up the open Senate seat (against one of the founders of the conservative movement, Pete Coors), and picked up a House seat. Now, it is looking like Colorado Democrats will surpass their own high expectations:

CO-07 (open seat, currently held by Republicans). Survey USA, 9/21, 9/24-5, 482 LVs, August numbers in parenthesis.
Perlmutter (D): 54% (45%)
O'Donnell (R): 37% (45%)

That is a pretty fat pickup opportunity. The movement is because Perlmutter has finally gone on air after a long and hard fought primary. I believe this is the largest lead any independent poll has shown for any Democrat in a Republican held seat this cycle. And that's not all--Democrats are also pulling away in the Governor's race. Here is the five-poll moving average:

Colorado Governor (open seat)
Ritter (D): 49%
Beauprez (R): 37%

The trendline is sharply in favor of Democrats here, as the two polls this week have shown 16 and 17 point leads for Ritter, respectively. Even worse for Republicans, both of the polls showing huge Democratic leads were actually conducted by Republican polling firms Rasmussen and Public Opinion Strategies. Let's see Republicans try to claim bias in those polls.

But wait, there's more! CO-04, which is a heavily Republican district held by Grand Homophobe Marylin Musgrave, also features a very competitive campaign:

Survey USA, 9/18-9/20, 424 LV's
Musgrave (R): 46%
Paccione (D): 42%

Also, further Republican implosions in CO-05 have pushed this race, featuring netroots-endorsed Jay Fawcett, into the top fifty House races, according to National Journal. This race shouldn't be close, but it is quickly becoming jus that.

In summary:
  • In 2002, Republicans held the trifecta in Colorado. They also held a 5-2 edge in the congressional delegation, and both of the US Senate seats. Colorado was not considered a swing state in Presidential elections.
  • After 2006, Democrats will hold the trifecta in Colorado. We will also hold at least a 4-3 edge in the congressional delegation, and quite possibly pull off an even larger edge. The US Senate seats are currently split. Colorado is understood as one of the top swing states in the entire country. By now, it might even be lean Dem.
Now that is a turnaround. In four short years, a decidedly red state has turned first to purple, and then to a light shade of blue. The key is that the Vast Left Wing Conspiracy sought by progressives around the country is already operational in Colorado. All advocacy groups work together--no more single-issue ghettos. There is a booming local blogosphere that is both internally organized and that receives healthy support from the establishment. Media Matters has set up in the state to counter local right-wing media. The silent revolution is not only under way, but actually completed, as grassroots progressives have taken over the state party. Even the big donors are on board with these changes, and give their money accordingly. Local consultants make some of the best ad campaigns you have ever seen. Basically, everything we have looked for nationwide is already happening in Colorado, and Republicans simply cannot stand up to it. The prototype of the Vast Left Wing Conspiracy looks like an absolutely resounding success. Even the vaunted modern conservative movement is no match for a fully-operational Vast Left Wing conspiracy. Build this sucker everywhere, and the nation will swing to the left faster than further than almost any of us have ever dreamed.

Tags: 2006 elections, Colorado, progressive movement (all tags)

Comments

19 Comments

Re: Vast Left Wing Conspiracy Swamps Outmatched Va

With CO at least a swing state, VA trending that way very quickly, OH looking to be light blue by '08 ... the map is suddenly looking a lot more difficult for the GOP nominee in '08.

Now, if we can only do something about Florida ...

by BriVT 2006-09-26 01:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Vast Left Wing Conspiracy Swamps Outmatched Va

Now, if we pull off these election victories (especially the 'trifecta') in November, you can all do case studies on us!

by pacified 2006-09-26 01:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Vast Left Wing Conspiracy Swamps Outmatched Va
Man people already have doen those studies. I'm just trying to spread the word.
by Chris Bowers 2006-09-26 01:25PM | 0 recs
My wingnut Mother-in-law pissed me off so I gave

to Permutter the day after he won the Colorado Primary.  We live in another state, but were visiting at the time of the primary.  I was fuming by 10:0O AM that day, so we got in the rental car and drove 3 or 4 blocks to the Permutter HQ and donated on the spot. I felt much better almost immediately, since arguing with the mother-in-law is useless and might give her a heart attack.

I can say you really  feel like you have interest in a candidate once you give him money. I've been following this race from several states away ever since. This is great news.

by molly bloom 2006-09-26 01:44PM | 0 recs
Re: sleeper races elsewhere?

Chris -- If the positive generic Dem movement is real what do you think the odds are of dems picking up seats in some of the races that haven't even been polled? For example, here in WV-02 there have been no publicly reported polls.

I know the Republicans are supposed to have a great voter turn-out machine but I can't help but think some of these races could fly under their radar.

With no polls results announced, there's far less horse race story in the local media. Could that further depress a demotivated Republican base from coming out as strong?

[And, yes, yes, before any comments otherwise, I know this scenario only works if there's a strong enough Dem challenger and enough of us help get out the vote for them... I'm not getting complacent. :-)]

by SLJ 2006-09-26 01:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Vast Left Wing Conspiracy Swamps Outmatched Va

Early Prediction:

Gov: Ritter 53-47 (it'll tighten up)
CD-7: Perlmutter 54-46 (a big tightening up. Why? O'Donnell has tons of money and appears to be waiting to pounce near the end with it.)

Dems keep the legislature. Thus a trifecta on state government and a 4-3 majority in the congressional delegation.

by Ament Stone of California 2006-09-26 02:15PM | 0 recs
Interesting thing about Perlmutter/Odonnell

It is the least gerrymandered district in the nation. It is pretty evenly split between Dems and GOP with Independents actually holding the balance of power. That is not a good sign for the GOP.  O'Donnell must be losing the independents in that district pretty badly to be down that much.

by molly bloom 2006-09-26 03:11PM | 0 recs
How nice for a change!

Since it's just about evenly split among Dems, Reps, and Indies, this district can be won much more easily.

Unfortunately, this is not the case on the coast. Now hopefully Brown (CA-04) and McNerney (CA-11) can prove us wrong, but so far all my "well-connected" friends are saying that most likely everything will remain the same after November.

Good for Colorado. However they got their districts, they need to kepp doing it! : )

by atdleft 2006-09-26 04:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Vast Left Wing Conspiracy Swamps Outmatched Va

There is a rapidly developing situation here in Colorado that is going to send a lot of people to the "polls" early, via absentee ballots.

Due to the partisan incompetence of appointed GOP shill SoS Gigi Dennis and a lawsuit by voting integrity activists, we now know that the state failed to perform a competent audit on all of our new electronic voting machines.  While the judge in the case ruled that the machines are still usable for this election (because it's "too late" to do anything about it), the revelations have given a big boost to an already active push towards absentee balloting.  The state Democratic Party is encouraging all Democrats to vote absentee, and many  of the county Clerks are distributing absentee applications and recommendations to vote absentee to ALL voters.

If little Ricky waits any longer, his money's going to be spent pissing in the wind, trying to preach to a bunch of voters who've already voted.  Absentee ballots are mailed October 9th in my county; others might not get theirs until the 15th or so...

Of course, the downside to this tale is that Angie Paccione, Jay Fawcett, and Bill Winter have very little time left to similarly move the vote in their favor.  

by Phoenix Rising 2006-09-26 09:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Vast Left Wing Conspiracy Swamps Outmatched Va

An integral part of this vast left wing conspiracy has been Denver's own Progress Now, which Jerome and Markos wrote about in CTG as having been integral to the Colorado miracle of 04. They are doing great grassroots work and similar organizations are spreading around the country. Also look at One Wisconsin Now in Wisconsin and The California Courage Campaign in California.

by Todd Beeton 2006-09-26 02:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Vast Left Wing Conspiracy Swamps Outmatched Va

Wow, is Chris being... optimistic?  Forget the numbers, that's a good sign! :)

FWIW, the "free market" says chances of a democratic house is 42%, and of democratic senate, 18%. This is according to the market at

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contr actSearch

The house number is actually down from about 59% two weeks ago.

I think these betting markets are a way to gauge what the moneyed stockbroker-type people are thinking.  Certainly not a representative sample, and generally skewed towards the GOP, but even they are acknowledging there's a good chance of a democratic house.  About one year ago, they listed a ~14% chance of a democratic house so you would get paid 7-1 if you bet, er, bought a contract at that time.

by aip 2006-09-26 03:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Vast Left Wing Conspiracy Swamps Outmatched Va
Those markets are pretty lame. I remember how they were still comfortably predicting a Dean win in Iowa the day before the caucus. Whatever.
by Chris Bowers 2006-09-26 03:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Vast Left Wing Conspiracy Swamps Outmatched Va

Bob Beauprez just launched a vicious TV ad campaign here in Denver accusing Ritter of "plea-bargaining 97% of his cases."  This aired during the local Broncos game on Sunday night.

Of course it's amazingly stupid, because ALL prosecutors plea-bargain almost all of their cases because they can't afford to try them all. The judicial system would not only grind to a halt, but they would be forced to let most defendants go free without trial because of violation of the speedy trial statute if they didn't.

Plus, nobody wants to invest the money in courts, judges and prosecutors, not to mention defense counsel to PAY for such a ridiculous system.

So, it's a totally lying attack to begin with.

Then to top it off Beauprez has some family on who were accusing Ritter of plea bargaining a drunk driving vehicular homicide case against their wishes. No idea what the facts are in this one, but it has Willy Horton written all over it.

Clearly Beauprez has heard the bell and has decided that only the most vicious attacks will stand him any chance of victory.

I have yet to see what Ritter will do to counter-attack this campaign.

by Cugel 2006-09-26 03:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Vast Left Wing Conspiracy Swamps Outmatched Va

Ritter has responded

Can we do YouTube embeds here?

I guess not.

See this post at SquareState.net.

I'd also make sure you read Rocky columnist Mike Littwin's take in post a did here.

by pacified 2006-09-26 03:46PM | 0 recs
Colorado Turning Blue

I was amazed at YearlyKos when I met the League of Colorado Bloggers (what a dynamic group they are), and realized just what we have going here with the local blogs, Progress Now, the House Majority Project, Progressive Majority and sites like Colorado Media Matters and especially Colorado Confidential that's ripping the Repug Trailhead group to shreds.
Oh yes, don't forget we're having the national Drinking Liberally Conference here this weekend.

We have a great crew pouring their soul into Turning Colorado Blue!

by NeoLeftist 2006-09-26 03:46PM | 0 recs
Here's to Colorado and Coloradans!

I lived in Denver for several years a long time ago and my wife was born in Sterling, CO (and probably conceived not far from where I used to live), and we both have always felt at home when we've visited the state. It's great to hear that it's leading the way in terms of creating a strong progressive netroots.  Congratulations, and thanks for helping to create a model that can help the rest of the country move forward.

by mitchipd 2006-09-26 03:57PM | 0 recs
Rove: That blast came from the Left!

"Their conspiracy is operational!"

Cheney: "It's over. All hacks prepare to retreat."

Hey, a liberal Star Wars nerd can dream!

by One Hand Clapping 2006-09-26 04:02PM | 0 recs
Focus on the Family

And to think, Focus on the Family, the most prominent Christian political group at the moment, is based on Colorado. Proof that when progressives act together, we can beat back the Right even on their home turf!

by LiberalFromPA 2006-09-26 08:16PM | 0 recs
One reason O'Donnell is tanking...

... is that he is clearly a lightweight.  His attempt to justify his youthful opposition to Social Security, as chronicled at TPM, is laughable.

Follow this link, and take a look at his literature, which looks like a bad campaign for sophmore class president.  http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archive s/009996.php

by xtrarich 2006-09-27 05:52AM | 0 recs

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