Vast Left Wing Conspiracy Swamps Outmatched Vast Right Wing Conspiracy
by Chris Bowers, Tue Sep 26, 2006 at 01:00:38 PM EDT
In 2004, Colorado was a beacon of hope in an otherwise bad year for Democrats. Democrats won both branches of the state legislature, picked up the open Senate seat (against one of the founders of the conservative movement, Pete Coors), and picked up a House seat. Now, it is looking like Colorado Democrats will surpass their own high expectations:
CO-07 (open seat, currently held by Republicans). Survey USA, 9/21, 9/24-5, 482 LVs, August numbers in parenthesis.
Perlmutter (D): 54% (45%)
O'Donnell (R): 37% (45%)
That is a pretty fat pickup opportunity. The movement is because Perlmutter has finally gone on air after a long and hard fought primary. I believe this is the largest lead any independent poll has shown for any Democrat in a Republican held seat this cycle. And that's not all--Democrats are also pulling away in the Governor's race. Here is the five-poll moving average:
Colorado Governor (open seat)
Ritter (D): 49%
Beauprez (R): 37%
The trendline is sharply in favor of Democrats here, as the two polls this week have shown 16 and 17 point leads for Ritter, respectively. Even worse for Republicans, both of the polls showing huge Democratic leads were actually conducted by Republican polling firms Rasmussen and Public Opinion Strategies. Let's see Republicans try to claim bias in those polls.
But wait, there's more! CO-04, which is a heavily Republican district held by Grand Homophobe Marylin Musgrave, also features a very competitive campaign:
Survey USA, 9/18-9/20, 424 LV's
Musgrave (R): 46%
Paccione (D): 42%
Also, further Republican implosions in CO-05 have pushed this race, featuring netroots-endorsed Jay Fawcett, into the top fifty House races, according to National Journal. This race shouldn't be close, but it is quickly becoming jus that.
- In 2002, Republicans held the trifecta in Colorado. They also held a 5-2 edge in the congressional delegation, and both of the US Senate seats. Colorado was not considered a swing state in Presidential elections.
- After 2006, Democrats will hold the trifecta in Colorado. We will also hold at least a 4-3 edge in the congressional delegation, and quite possibly pull off an even larger edge. The US Senate seats are currently split. Colorado is understood as one of the top swing states in the entire country. By now, it might even be lean Dem.