More DCCC and NRCC Expenditures

This is a supplement to the post Kombiz and I put together back on Saturday night. The NRCC has released information on their first list of wide-ranging ad buys, and on Saturday McJoan gave the district-by-district details:
OH-18: Zack Space ($248,923.20); NY-24: Mike Arcuri ($183,147.20); FL-22: Ron Klein ($159,288); PA-10: Chris Carney ($163,464.00); VA-02: Phil Kellam ($140,115.95); IN-09: Baron Hill ($139,955.75); IN-08: Brad Ellsworth ($118,882.40); IA-03: Leonard Boswell ($111,750.50); NC-11: Heath Shuler ($93,075.20); WI-08: Steven Kagen ($89,129.60); IN-02: Joe Donnelly ($72,023.36); PA-06: Lois Murphy ($63,348.16); VT-AL: Peter Welch (this was actually an expenditure for GOP Rep. Martha Rainville) ($61,971.20); PA-07: Joe Sestak ($55,722.24); CT-04: Diane Farrell ($53,510.65); GA-08: Jim Marshall ($37,558.40); IL-08: Melissa Bean ($33,626.88); WA-08: Darcy Burner ($25,586.91); IL-06: Tammy Duckworth ($18,095.89); AZ-08: Gabrielle Giffords ($12,106.40)
In total, Republicans are adding another $1.88M of independent expenditures through these ads, bringing their total independent expenditures on TV ads / production up to around $3.6M since July 1st. The NRCC is spending 87% of their money in districts held by Republicans, which is an increase from 6.8% of their non-polling expenditures being spent in districts in the report Kombiz put together on Saturday. The difference comes entirely from one district, IA-03, which brings the total number of Democratic held districts the NRCC appears to be targeting up to four. Since, by way of contrast, they have made independent, non-polling expenditures in 21 Republican held districts, the NRCC is clearly playing defense this year.

Also, their buys in PA-06 and PA-07 strike me as token support, since in the expensive Philadelphia media market those amounts come out to around 110 network points for PA-07, and around 125 network points in PA-06. That will barely register a blip in those two districts. AZ-08 is also clearly a token gesture to the wingnut nominee, Graf.

On our side, the DCCC has added at least eight more races, and possibly quite a few more, to their target list. Today, their released their latest additions to their "Red to Blue" program, which give campaigns financial support and mentorship from sitting Democratic Representatives. The new additions are:Gabby Giffords (AZ-08), Phil Hare (IL-17), Paul Hodes (NH-02), Steve Kagen (WI-08), Dan Maffei (NY-25), Angie Paccione (CO-04), Betty Sutton (OH-13), HI-02 Winner I like the individuals they added, but did they really have to include Democrats form such safe--but open--seats as IL-17 and HI-02? OH-13 isn't exactly a nailbiter either. Of their previous thirty-five additions, only one was from a Democratic held seat:Darcy Burner (WA-08), Phyllis Busansky (FL-09), Joe Courtney (CT-02), John Cranley (OH-01), Jill Derby (NV-02), Tammy Duckworth (IL-06), Brad Ellsworth (IN-08), Diane Farrell (CT-04), Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20), Tessa Hafen (NV-03), Baron Hill (IN-09), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Ron Klein (FL-22), Nick Lampson (TX-22), Ken Lucas (KY-04), Patricia Madrid (NM-01), Harry Mitchell (AZ-05), Chris Murphy (CT-05), Lois Murphy (PA-06), Heath Shuler (NC-11), Peter Welch (VT-AL), Mike Arcuri (NY-24), Bruce Braley (IA-01), Chris Carney (PA-10), Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Christine Jennings (FL-13), Phil Kellam (VA-02), Patrick Murphy (PA-08), Ed Perlmutter (CO-07), Joe Sestak (PA-07), Zack Space (OH-18), Linda Stender (NJ-07), Mike Weaver (KY-02), Patty Wetterling (MN-06), Charlie Wilson (OH-06) This is generally a good list, but I think their targeting priorities are screwed up to have KY-02 so high. I would rank several other campaigns, including KY-03, ahead of KY-02. Maybe someone was owed a favor. The DCCC also released their list of seats that apparently they are looking for in a wave election, their "emerging races.":Charlie Brown (CA-04), Jack Davis (NY-26), Judy Feder (VA-10), Peter Goldmark (WA-05), Larry Kissell (NC-08), Tim Mahoney (FL-16), Eric Massa (NY-29), Jerry McNerney (CA-11), Dave Mejias (NY-03), Maxine Moul (NE-01), Dan Seals (IL-10), Bob Shamansky (OH-12), Ellen Simon (AZ-01), Tim Walz (MN-01), Victoria Wulsin (OH-02) Again, not a bad list, but I am very disappointed that McNerney in particular is not in the higher category of support. CA-11 is one of the 21 Republican-held seats where the NRCC has made independent expenditures so far. In fact, they have spent more than 100K in non-polling expenditures in CA-11, placing it 14th in the NRCC's overall expenditure list since July 1st. Given this, one thinks that the NRCC sees similar results to the poll in May that showed McNerney ahead. I bet the DCCC would be targeting that seat more vigorously had their chosen candidate, Steve Filson, not been handily defeated by McNerney in the primary. The way they are treating McNerney is petty, disrespectful, and counter-productive.

Ten netroots-endorsed candidates are on their target list, no matter how low. I can dig that.

Update: Ed Perlmutter, CO-07, was also added to the top-tier list.

Tags: dccc, House 2006, Money, NRCC (all tags)



Emerging races...

What will the DCCC be doing for the candidates on the "emerging races" list? I personally think that Ellen Simon in AZ-01 has a good shot at taking the seat back and would like to see a higher level of support for her, too. Same with Larry Kissell (NC-08) after all of the Netroots attention he's gotten!

by b artlet 2006-09-18 11:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Emerging races...

Here is to us sitting around on Nov 8 saying "See, we did it without the DCCC!"

by Robert P 2006-09-18 11:28AM | 0 recs
Re: More DCCC and NRCC Expenditures

NC-08.  How do you figure out how much it costs to buy airtime in a district?

I'm wondering whether NC-08, which is mostly rural, is cheaper.  Or, whether you still have to buy Charlotte time, which costs X?

by Robert P 2006-09-18 11:25AM | 0 recs
Re: More DCCC and NRCC Expenditures
I have a list ofr some district somehwere, but I just know the numbers in Philly because I live here.
by Chris Bowers 2006-09-18 11:30AM | 0 recs
Re: More DCCC and NRCC Expenditures

It's a strange one. I lived in Raleigh and Durham, and I remember that most of the stations there covered Fayettevile but not all the way down to laurinburg. So I'm not even sure if there are any stations based out of Fayetteville which is the other urban anchor of the district. You might even be buying TV time in Florence, SC!  

by adamterando 2006-09-18 11:38AM | 0 recs
Re: More DCCC and NRCC Expenditures

It is all over the place.

Raleigh, Charlotte, Wilmington, Florence, and Columbia seem to cover it.

by Robert P 2006-09-18 11:51AM | 0 recs
Re: More DCCC and NRCC Expenditures

They are going to rely on enviro independent expenditures in the McInerney race in CA- that's why he is not higher.

by swampdredger 2006-09-18 11:43AM | 0 recs
Re: More DCCC and NRCC Expenditures

Defenders of Wildlife is an important ally there, but Pombo's got industry backing up the Wazoo. It's going to be a tough fight and we need all hands on deck. The reward is worth it.

by ripzaw 2006-09-18 11:47AM | 0 recs
CA-11 McNerney

"The way they are treating McNerney is petty, disrespectful, and counter-productive."

This could not be better said.  I am amazed at how much the DCCC would prefer a Pombo than to help a candidate who was not its first choice.  

by hilltopper 2006-09-18 11:52AM | 0 recs
Totally agree on KY-03

It's looking locally like KY-04 may be in good shape, and KY-02 is going to be tight, but KY-03 is going to be the most heated contest - Yarmuth needs the help, but he can beat Northup

by Matt248 2006-09-18 02:57PM | 0 recs
"Maybe someone was owed a favor" ??

C'mon it's not possible to have good-faith statistical disagreements over this?

by MNPundit 2006-09-18 04:31PM | 0 recs
by manie 2007-04-10 06:12AM | 0 recs


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