House Forecast Update
by Chris Bowers, Wed Sep 13, 2006 at 08:46:49 AM EDT
- NY-24 drops from "lean Dem" to "toss-up" following a strong internal poll for the Republican in the race
- WI-08 moves up into "toss-up/ lean Dem" from "toss-up" following self-financing Kagen's big win yesterday. Kagen has an internal poll showing him up double-digits
- AZ-08 moves up into "lean Dem" now that it is Giffords vs. Graf.
- VA-02 drops to "toss-up / lean Rep" from "toss-up following a strong internal poll for Republican Drake
- CA-04 and NC-08 move onto the board after favorable internal polls suggest close races
- NH-01 drops off the board since upset winner Shea-Porter has only 3% of her opponent's cash
- LA-03 drops off the board after I finally woke up and realized that Katrina made this district unwinnable for Republicans for many reasons
- VT-AL downgraded after new cash report, new poll, and coming to my senses
- Cash on hand numbers updates for campaigns in New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Arizona, and Wisconsin.
Update: I'll be fixing VA-02 shortly, since I did nto at first catch that the internal Drake poll was a bogus, one-day internal snapshot. If she is only eleasing one day, it is safe to say that the other days don't look nearly as good. Thus, it is safe to say that I should not have downgraded that race.