House Forecast Update

Following yesterday's primaries, I have updated the House forecast. Here are some changes:
  • NY-24 drops from "lean Dem" to "toss-up" following a strong internal poll for the Republican in the race
  • WI-08 moves up into "toss-up/ lean Dem" from "toss-up" following self-financing Kagen's big win yesterday. Kagen has an internal poll showing him up double-digits
  • AZ-08 moves up into "lean Dem" now that it is Giffords vs. Graf.
  • VA-02 drops to "toss-up / lean Rep" from "toss-up following a strong internal poll for Republican Drake
  • CA-04 and NC-08 move onto the board after favorable internal polls suggest close races
  • NH-01 drops off the board since upset winner Shea-Porter has only 3% of her opponent's cash
  • LA-03 drops off the board after I finally woke up and realized that Katrina made this district unwinnable for Republicans for many reasons
  • VT-AL downgraded after new cash report, new poll, and coming to my senses
  • Cash on hand numbers updates for campaigns in New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Arizona, and Wisconsin.
The overall projection shifted slightly in both directions, from a Democratic gain of 15-23 to a Democratic gain of 14-24. Later today, I will have an updated Senate forecast.

Update: I'll be fixing VA-02 shortly, since I did nto at first catch that the internal Drake poll was a bogus, one-day internal snapshot. If she is only eleasing one day, it is safe to say that the other days don't look nearly as good. Thus, it is safe to say that I should not have downgraded that race.

Tags: election forecasts, House 2006 (all tags)



Re: House Forecast Update

Can someone please explain the "inside-baseball" reasons Shea-Porter won?

Wasn't she broke and the DCCC supported the other guy?  What was the winning tactic and strategy to get her to win?

by jgarcia 2006-09-13 09:18AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

While they're at it, can the insider also explain why so many states have primaries almost too late to matter?  Of course, that's a question that contains it's own answer, I guess.

by danielj 2006-09-13 09:31AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

I can't explain the first, but I think the theory for the second is, people have a limited appetite for politics. Compressing both the primary and the general into post labor day allows the primary to occur at a time when people are at least a bit ready to pay attention to politics. Remember, most people only pay tangential attention, and make up their mind in the final few days of campaigning.

I'm sure there are also historical reasons relating to the harvest. For a long time, much of American life--the school schedule, the political schedule, etc.--was built around the agricultural season.

by niq 2006-09-13 10:25AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

Can only tackle the latter part...

We're used to the idea, in this country, that elections take the better part of a year.  Warm-ups, primaries, delay, warmups, campaign after Labor Day... election.

Most of the world's operated on a 30-60 day cycle for the entire election process.  Too later to matter?  Nah.  People aren't paying attention before that--other than the hard-core political junkies (guilty as charged).  And for us, there's always politics going on, whether there's an election going, or not.

by ogre 2006-09-13 10:58AM | 0 recs
Washington State

In Washington State, which has an even later primary (although it is being moved to August by either 2007 or 2008, forget which), the reason has to do with the election laws and the legislature.  Sitting legislators cannot campaign for some number of days before or after a legislative session.  They are very strict about this.  So the primary can't be too close to that protected time.  

by lynnallen 2006-09-13 12:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Washington State

Lynn, the WA primary will move to the third week of August next year (2007).  You have it right, of course, about the prohibition on incumbents campaigning (and, more importantly, fundraising) near the legislative session.

by N in Seattle 2006-09-13 12:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Shea-Porter

The reason I've seen given for her surprising win is a committed group of local volunteers who were well organized and, for example, wrote targeted notes to neighbors or friends recommending the winner.  The issue was the war and, once again, it was a winner.

The same commentary said, incidentally, thatCarol Shea-Porter is now a national force within the Democratic Party given the importance of New Hampshire and suggested that lots of the 2008 hopefuls would comecourting with money and with personal visits.  Maybe Feingold, Clark, and others will make this one competitive.

Hillary is left with tons of cash but given her pro-war stance may be locked outside for this one.  She's not spending it in NY.  NH seems to be closed or at least closing.  Is she going to become the leading voice for Leonard Boswell?  That is about all that is left.  The train is leaving the station and she sure doesn't look like a passenger.

by David Kowalski 2006-09-13 10:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Shea-Porter

Shea-Porter worked on Clarks presidential campaign and she cited that as a factor in her decision to run. I am hopeful that some of those Democratic contenders can send some money her way as they pass through NH this fall. She is an excellent candidate in the only state that went from red to blue in 2004. NH-01 has a growing number of former Mass residents and though this has been a traditional republican seat the landscape is changing. The Harpers story on Bradley highlighted his coziness with wealthy corporate interests and how his personal investments have benefited from his votes in the house.  I believe he can be beaten if Shea-Porter keeps up the momentum from her strong showing. Right now she has the buzz.

by Crazy Horse 2006-09-13 05:17PM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update
There were several factors at play.  
  1.  Although the primary is mostly a serious about politics event the DCCC doesn't hold much weight outside the inner circle.
  2.  The only statewide TV Station has been running a series which showcase all the candidates and she was just better.
  3.  She worked her tail off all over the state.  And she was very very good.
  4.  The "insiders choice" had more money but was very "hang dog" about the fact that there was any primary at all and didn't exert himself.
  5.  She has a great message, great energy and did the work.
  6.  Common wisdom was that a Manchester Dem was needed instead of a "Seacoast" one.  It's amazing to me that a state as small as NH can have so many local prejudices and otherwise intellegent people are so blinded by them. (Note:  I'm from the Lakes Region and happy to support any Democrat we can find.)
  7.  Although she mentioned being a Clark activist she was smart enough not to act like a "Clarkie" and alienate those of us who supported other candidates
Final note - she'll get the mony, she's already laid the groundwork and Bradley is going to have to scramble.  I don't think he's capable.  My call is toss-up.
by smucci 2006-09-13 04:35PM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

Great post!!!  Thanks.

by jgarcia 2006-09-13 08:57PM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

I saw Greg Valliere on Bloomberg TV state that new polling in New York state shows that the Dems have peaked and will not take either house of Congress.

I assume this is the usual "win-win" commentary for the GOP that we always see on TV these days, but how can polling in one state forecast the results for the entire nation?  

by howie14 2006-09-13 09:30AM | 0 recs

Incumbent won't endorse Republican successor nominee because he's a sleazeball, and Dem candidate is a Veteran.  I think also that an internal poll for the Dem showed him with a 41%-28% lead.

You have it likely GOP listed as an "other races".  Does any of this change your mind?

by magster 2006-09-13 09:35AM | 0 recs
Re: CO-05
I would need to see the poll.
by Chris Bowers 2006-09-13 12:02PM | 0 recs
by magster 2006-09-13 01:12PM | 0 recs
Where can we get primary results.....

all in in one place?  The most recent updates to the primary result data on this blog hasn't changed in several hours.


by Iowan 2006-09-13 09:43AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update - AZ-08

I don't agree with this.  You and many others are assuming that this Graf is a fascist nutball who will be rejected.  I think that he is a fascist nutball with a winning issue - immigration.  In his district, immigration is a very strong issue, and if the Dem does not INNOCULATE by going to a reasonable anti-illegal position, he will be eaten by this issue.

Remember the results from CA-50 - immigration is a big issue. Repukeliscum can get to independents with this position.

Democrats should adopt the following innoculation position:

1) oppose illegal immigration.

  1. endorse legal immigration.
  2. prosecute employers who hire illegals.

by dataguy 2006-09-13 09:44AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update - AZ-08

I don't see the Dems winning this one either. Hopefully, Graf is crazy enough elsewhere to counteract his immigration issue, but I don't know enough to say.

by surfbird007 2006-09-13 10:22AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update - AZ-08

Immigration is a significant issue and Graf does have a base in the area.

However, this is the district that voted in a somewhat moderate (gay) Republican for years (Graf only won one (rural) county when trying to run against him).    The local press, who are arguably not the best at covering elections, were already asking him about the rumors that Republicans would rather cross over and vote Dem or not vote at all than vote for him in the general.  Giffords, in contrast, got softball (albeit somewhat random) questions.

I've also heard that Tucson itself is now predominately hispanic and in a city council vote a few months ago, all of the Republican council members were tossed out (even a Ronstadt and that family is huge there).  I don't know how far out Graf can actually get on the crazy train to energize his base without alienating everyone else.  

The district only has about 5% Republican advantage and I can only hope, with the district actually being on/near the border, most people are more rational when it comes to dealing with immigration.  Sure we don't like the strain on education/health resources, the economy of much of southern AZ is dependent on immigrant workers and Mexican citizens who travel back and forth freely.  

I only worry that Graf's rabble-rousing will encourage the crazies to come out and vote for (Sen.) Kyl and the republican candidate for governor (Munsil - who has some sort of affiliation with Focus on the Family).  To sum up - I don't think the district is that "red," and "blue" (and "white"?  what is independent?) voters seem angry and are turning out.

by curlyq 2006-09-13 11:22AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update - AZ-08
I am also assuming that polls hsowed the Dem ahead and cash figures showed her with more than a 4-1 lead and that the retiring Republican refused to endorse Graf and that Democratic turnout was higher than Republican turnout and that the PVI on this district in an open seat race is only +1 Rep in a eyar when Dems have gained at least 8 points in all federal races sicne 2004.

No wait--I'm not assuming that--these are all facts.
by Chris Bowers 2006-09-13 12:04PM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update - AZ-08

It's obvious you don't know the district.   I used to LIVE in AZ-08 and have family in CA-50.  

You cannot compare the two.  Period.  One is solidly GOP while the other was almost split down the middle.  And Tucson-area Republicans tend to be more centrist than in other parts of the state (look at the Tucson Reps in the legislature).

The dirty little secret is that both the state Republican party and RNC are effectively conceding this race...already.  We shouldn't underestimate Graf, but Giffords (barring a major fuck-up) wins by ten.  Take that to the bank.

by jgarcia 2006-09-13 02:52PM | 0 recs

I think this one is going to move up to likley Dem really soon. Kagen is real strong; he had a great primary TV-commercial that just destroyed Bush and I believe it called for a withdrawal-timetable as well. I saw him speak the WI State Convention and he struck me as the best choice for WI-08. Also, Gard is just a complete dumbass, he looked literally retarded in the debates and ran this really creepy TV-commercial with his wife talking about getting a mammogram. It was ery odd and it really said nothing about him at all. This one will be lock soon; Gard is just too dumb and Kagen to strong.

by Forward with Feingold 2006-09-13 09:49AM | 0 recs
Re: WI-08

My one worry:  Turnout.

56,000 Republicans turned out for what no one really thought of as a contest between Gard and McCormick. Only 52,000 people turned out in the highly contested Democratic primary. That's a 4% Republican advantage. While some McCormick voters may well bolt to Kagen, the good Doctor is going to have to capture a significant majority of that elusive non-primary-but-general-election voter.

On the other hand, only 12,000 people voted for Dottie LeClair in that district in the 2004 (uncontested) Democratic Primary (and 52,000 Republicans for Mark Green), so the contested primaries did significantly increase turnout, especially on our side. That could signal an important shift.

Randy Koehn, who won his primary in the 89th AD, tells me a lot of Dems voted R, as well, for races like DA, which could also account for the Republican advantage.  But I haven't seen hard numbers on that, so I'm reluctant to call it gospel.

Still, I'm optimistic overall given state-wide turnout:  357,182 (or so) people voted in the Democratic primary for Attorney General; 238,606 (or so) people voted in the Republican primary for Attorney General.  That's a 20% Dem advantage, and bodes well for keeping Doyle and the AG, and maybe picking up the state senate.

by folkbum 2006-09-13 10:30AM | 0 recs
Re: WI-08

Dem voters are traditionally lower turnout for primaries.  Slackers get around to paying attention sometime after the primaries...

by ogre 2006-09-13 11:00AM | 0 recs
Re: WI-08

Wow, I didn't get a chance to look at the numbers for WI-08, so I kind of just assumed that they were as high as the Dem statewide turnout. That is a little worrying, but John Gard really is a creepball. I just can not see that many peole backing him. I guess we will see what happens. What are your thoughts on the Falk win last night; personally I think it is really good for the statewide Dem ticket. BTW I am also from Milwaukee.

by Forward with Feingold 2006-09-13 11:00AM | 0 recs
Re: WI-08
that is worrisome. I should probably downgrade to "toss-up."
by Chris Bowers 2006-09-13 12:10PM | 0 recs
Re: WI-08

There's also some huffing and puffing among R's trying to create scandal for Kagen, about his consultant, who was working for the state for a time, and Kagen's business website, which features language almost identical to his campaign site.

However, Kagen's a sole proprietor of his business and there is no illegality there, and his consultant was doing campaigning after work hours.  There's no there there.

But how much Gard can blow smoke is a question, especially when the governor's race will be so much about ethics and corruption.

I remain cautiously optimistic, but you're right--I wouldn't say "leans Dem" yet.

by folkbum 2006-09-13 12:21PM | 0 recs
Re: WI-08

If I'm not mistaken, that district has a slight Republican PVI and I assume there's more Republicans than Democrats on the books.  That being the case, the percentage in which Democrats voted vs. the percentage of Republicans could be more telling and potentially very good for us.  If Wisconsin has closed primaries (do they?)...then it's all up to the independents.  Know what I mean?

by beeswax49 2006-09-13 01:28PM | 0 recs

It was pre-primary, but your analysis of AZ-08 could include the poll conducted Sept. 1-4 by Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence of likely primary voters.

"If the general election were held today, whom would you support?"
Giffords: 45.8 percent
Graf: 35.7 percent
Undecided: 18.5 percent

800 likely voters primary polled.  37% Democrat; 45% Republican; 18% independents. Margin of error: +/- 3.5 percent. 555

by hilltopper 2006-09-13 10:34AM | 0 recs
Re: AZ-08
Thanks! will update.
by Chris Bowers 2006-09-13 12:05PM | 0 recs
Re: AZ-08

It does not quite fit your chart, other than in comments, but Rep. Kolbe has released a statement that he will not support Graf.  Kolbe's release:

"I congratulate Mr. Graf on his victory in the Republican primary. However, there are such profound and fundamental differences between his views and mine on several key issues that I would not be true to my own principles were I to endorse him now for the general election in November." /26062.php

by hilltopper 2006-09-13 12:26PM | 0 recs
Re: AZ-08

Kolbe didn't quite go all-out and endorse the Democrat like Goldwater once did, but it's still nice to see. l25/articles/1030goldwater.html

by wayward 2006-09-13 03:41PM | 0 recs

Larry Kissell continues to chip away at Hayes and has been getting really good press coverage on an almost daily basis, including above-the-fold front page articles in both Charlotte and in Hayes' hometown of Concord.

I really think we're gonna take it come Nov 7th.

Thanks for recognize what's going on here in the 8th district!

by working for change 2006-09-13 10:45AM | 0 recs
Re: NC-08

This one is a pickup if Kissell can get money and name recognition. Hello DCCC??? DNC??? Somebody???

Hayes voted for CAFTA in a district that has been hit hard by outsourcing.

Hayes hasn't done much of anything for the voters of NC-08 except screw them.

by wayward 2006-09-13 03:38PM | 0 recs
Re: NC-08

Hello House leadership?  Nancy Pelosi, are you listening?  How about having your leadership PAC send some $$$$ to NC-08 and we'll send you another loyal progressive Democrat for the new Democratic House majority!

by Bear83 2006-09-13 07:07PM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update IN-09

Missing Research 2000 poll of 400 voters 46-40 Hill in Fort Wayne paper MOE 5%

by Wayne Miller 2006-09-13 11:05AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update IN-09
Hven't seen that poll. Who was ahead? When was it taken?
by Chris Bowers 2006-09-13 12:05PM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update IN-09

From Taegan Goddard:

In Indiana's 9th congressional district, a new Research 2000 poll shows Baron Hill (D) leading incumbent Rep. Mike Sodrel (R), 46% to 40% with 14% undecided.

by Mimikatz 2006-09-13 12:33PM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update IN-09 also AZ-08

This is a link. l/news/local/15504472.htm
Found it through TPM Election Central.

Election Central is also reporting that Kolbe has stated he will not endorse Graf

by Wayne Miller 2006-09-13 03:02PM | 0 recs
NY-19, no its not too late

We just need to hit it hard and fast.

Fly under the republican predictors noses and rock this race hard.

We also need the money it takes to run this race, which we haven't been getting because of late primary, but now that is over so lets go get them and lets get our money.

by MrMacMan 2006-09-13 11:15AM | 0 recs

I think you've got both NV seats far too low. In NV-3, Hafen has got a lot more going for than just "aid of Harry Reid," including a well-known family name (her father is a popular city councilman in Henderson), an appealing personal narrative ("growing up in Henderson..."), and a strong message (she has two very good ads running tying Porter to Bush and Rumsfled).

In NV-2, a new poll out today shows Derby w/in MOE and 18% und. Derby also has longstanding family ties and high name rec in the district, plus a strong "boot out the career politicians" message. The state republicans are divided, and Heller is unlikely to get the gawdy #s from rural counties that Bush got. And Derby has more CoH.

You guys don't pay much attention to NV there at MyDD HQ but you should be.

by desmoulins 2006-09-13 11:16AM | 0 recs

The poll you refer to for MN-06 did not include candidates' names. I hope that future polls will show a significantly narrower race.

I posted about this here.

by comrade pat 2006-09-13 12:37PM | 0 recs
A comment on NY-24

I'm up in the Southern Tier (Binghamton area) and Meier has absolutely BOMBED the airwaves with his "I'm an independent voice" lie.

I've only seen one Arcuri ad, and it hasn't seen enough airplay.

by dpinzow 2006-09-13 05:04PM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

Lighten up.  I'm all for rigor, be it mathematical or verbal.  The meaning is clear.

I'll give your post a C+.

by InigoMontoya 2006-09-13 07:19PM | 0 recs


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