VA-Sen: Winnable Races and Admitting To Being A Democrat

Something very interesting is happening in Virginia. Even though he has yet to go on air (although that changes today), Webb might already be ahead of Allen. Electoral Vote.com, which has just launched a 2006 edition, actually currently lists Webb ahead of Allen by averaging the latest polls from Mason-Dixon and Zogby. Now, think what you want of the Zogby polls. Personally, I don't put much of any weight in them, but I am willing to keep an open mind to new polling techniques (at the same time, IO don't want such techniques to give us false hope). However, even with the Zogby poll aside, a look under the hood of the Mason-Dixon poll reveals some very, very encouraging news for Webb.

Specifically, I am referring to the favorable ratings of Allen and Webb in the Mason-Dixon poll. Webb has a 3-1 positive ratio in this category, at 28% favorable and 7% unfavorable. Allen, by contrast, has only a 3-4 positive ratio, at 41% favorable, 31% unfavorable. Numbers like these strongly suggest that Webb will not only pull ahead of Allen, but comfortably pull ahead of Allen once they have comparable name ID's. The only way for this to not happen is for Allen to go nuclear on Webb, and do it now. However, to date he has done nothing of the sort, which at least partially accounts for why this race is so competitive. If trends continue like this... well, basically no one can defeat a well-known candidate with a positive, 3-1 favorable ratio, and Jim Webb will win this campaign easily.

However, there is a hitch in all of this for Webb. Namely, he will never have equal name ID to Allen during this campaign. If he gets his name ID up to 70% among the electorate, he will have done a remarkable job. George Allen has been both Governor of Virginia and a Senator from Virginia, and he currently only has a 72% name ID in the state according to the Mason-Dixon poll. Allen's name ID peaked at 83% in early November of 2000 just before the election where he knocked off Robb, and only ten months after he stepped down as Governor. Webb will simply not be able to match that. Thus, in order to win, Webb will have to rely on a large portion of the electorate being willing to vote not for Webb, but rather to vote for a generic Democrat. If people are not willing to go with the Democratic Party in Virginia no matter who the nominee is, Jim Webb cannot win this election.

This is why I find Webb's new bio ad to be a little baffling. Not only does the ad never mention that Webb is a Democrat, it prominently features Ronald Reagan in both words and images. This may appeal to some voters, but I have serious doubts about its' effectiveness when it comes to actually getting people to vote for Webb. What happens when people go into the voting booth ready to dump Allen, but then discover that the nice-seeming alternative that is Jim Webb is actually a Democrat? Without any branding of the Democratic Party image in Virginia, how many people will Webb end up losing in the voting booth itself?

My point is this: while all candidates need bio ads in order to raise their name ID and present a warm, fuzzy side to the electorate, in order to knock off incumbents this year, challengers are going to need large numbers of voters to be willing to vote for the Democratic Party itself. The incumbent rule is weakening primarily because people do not even know who incumbents are anymore, much less the people who are challenging incumbents. News programs spend less time devoted to actual news, DVR's are quickly on the rise in American homes, and when it comes to local political news we have experienced a nearly complete market failure nationwide. In order to win, Democratic candidates must not just brand themselves as viable alternatives to incumbents in an anti-incumbent year, but they also must brand the Democratic Party as a viable alternative to the Republican trifecta. Failure to do otherwise will result in a very disappointing 2006 for Democrats around the nation.

If candidates do not brand themselves as Democrats in their advertising campaigns in 2006, they will hurt both themselves and other Democrats both and up and down-ticket. To win in 2006, all Democratic challengers will need a huge portion of their votes to come from people who are willing to give the Democratic Party a try after years of Republican mismanagement. We should not be fooled into thinking that we can win purely on a candidate-by-candidate basis. Either we become willing to say we are Democrats, or we better be willing to suffer under another two years of Republican "governance."

Tags: Adwatch, Democrats, George Allen, Jim Webb, polls, Senate 2006, VA-Sen (all tags)

Comments

68 Comments

The 80s and 90s are dead

What you describe is the (near) death of the TV campaign. That's why it's so important to have a highly organized precinct-level based campaign that can get PCOs (like yourself) and other volunteers to go out and establish a connection with voters, especially independents who may lean Dem so they'll actually pull that lever in Nov.

by adamterando 2006-09-11 11:12AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen:

Not only does the ad never mention that Webb is a Democrat, it prominently features Ronald Reagan in both words and images.

Eyes rolling.

"If it's a choice between a genuine Republican, and a Republican in Democratic clothing, the people will choose the genuine article, every time."

Will they ever learn?

by Sitkah 2006-09-11 11:32AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

 I think that this is a very good "introduction" ad.  Many people do not know who Jim Webb is in Virginia, so having him pictured with Repug Gd #1 is great advertising.  Let him get his foot in the door with Virginia Repugs who see Reagan and think anything connected with Ronnie is AOK with them.

 Jim can speak of being a Democrat in future commercials and still have some of the Repugs considering him just because of Ronnie.

 As far as Nancy is concerned, these would be my questions to her about having having Webb use her late husband's video.

 Did Webb do anything since this video to have Ronnie's opinion of him.  I mean, did he break a law, did he and Ronnie have bad word and weren't
friends any more at his death?

 The worst thing I can see is that Jim changed parties.  Does an opinion of a friend change just because his other friend has changed parties?  I think not, unless the first friend is so shallow as to let that one change in the relationship stop the relationship.

 So Nancy, what has Jim Webb done that he should not feel proud to air compliments from a past President?

by ocdemocrat 2006-09-11 11:46AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

having him pictured with Repug Gd #1 is great advertising.

It's misleading advertising if he campaigns and gets elected as a Reganoid and then governs like a Democrat.

But it's probably an honest ad since he'll probably vote like a Reganoid if elected -- and that's what will really suck.

by Sitkah 2006-09-11 12:35PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

Reagan was a Democrat.  He was a registered Democrat before he ran for CA-Gov, and a Democrat in many of his policy initiatives throughout his career.

How were Nancy's two big actions not Democratic?  Just Say No and Illiteracy?

People need to stop idolizing Reagan as a "Conservative God", he was nothing of the sort.  His administration may have been in many ways very conservative, but he was not.  His VP was behind most of the conservative initiatives.  His Administration is also responsible for some of the biggest expansions of the Federal Government.  Not very conservative.

by mp 2006-09-11 01:06PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

Reagan was a Democrat.

So was Zell Miller.

Yeah, Reagan was a Dem before he decided it was a wise career move to name his liberal friends to the Republican commie hunters.

His administration may have been in many ways very conservative, but he was not.

That's like saying he hung out with axe murderers, but only did the sharpening.

his Administration is also responsible for some of the biggest expansions of the Federal Government.  Not very conservative.

Actually, raging deficits and bloated government are hallmarks of conservatism just as much as miltary aggression. Just because they claim the opposite doesn't negate the facts.

by Sitkah 2006-09-11 03:15PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

Sitkah, what evidence do you have that Webb would vote like a Reagan clone? Just because he served in RR's cabinet, as secretary of the navy? He is a committed economic populist who opposes a number of the recent "free trade" agreements and is a strong supporter of civil unions, abortion rights, and environmental/labor protections. The only issue which he may depart from Dem orthodoxy is that he supports gun rights, which a number of other dems do as well.

by elessar 2006-09-11 01:49PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

i Sitkah, what evidence do you have that Webb would vote like a Reagan clone?

Evidence is hard to pin on politicians who make a point of being slippery eels. I'm just guessing based on his pro-Reagan ads and his pro-Reagan record.

What more does it take to be a Reagan clone?

by Sitkah 2006-09-11 03:05PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

What the hell do you mean by 'pro-Reagan' record? Just b/c he was in Reagan's cabinet as secretary of the navy? Sheesh, did you not read ANYTHING I typed? He's an economic populist, a social libertarian, and a strong supporter of environmental/labor/civil rights protections. Doesn't sound like a pro-reagan record to me.

by elessar 2006-09-11 03:43PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

I guess he just hung those qualities in his closet while implementing Regan's policies.

by Sitkah 2006-09-11 05:12PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

Webb isn't a reagan clone. He was with Reagan because of what he thought of foreign polciy issues of which Webb agreed with Reagan. domestically- if you bothered to actual read what Webb has said about himsefl- he was far more in support of the Democratic domestic agenda. Indeed, he has said that the last few years has been- as I remember- an evolution for him on these issues similar to Wesley CLark in which they both say they realize the world was more than foreign polcy and the military in America.  Indeed, on t he foreign policy- if I am remembering it right- Webb has been a vocal critique of Bush regarding Iraq prettye early on. On the domestic issues he didn't support the flag burning amendment- and as I remember supports civil unions which is pretty liberal c onsidering my homestate is wingnut crazy in the souhtern part oft he state. Again,  I am basing this on things I have read when he intro'ed himself. I know many of you want to win rhectorical points, but I see the ad in a different ligth- which is defining his military service which he has no reason to be ashamed of. He did not only support the military careere, but was an advocate enough to quit when he didn't think they were being treated right.

I have donated money to this campaign because I am not willing to be as unforgiving of people's past as you. i believe they can evolve. Apparently you do not.

by bruh21 2006-09-11 02:45PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

Webb isn't a reagan clone.

He just plays one on TV?

by Sitkah 2006-09-11 03:01PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

you have given better comments. this one is beneath you. on the substance, you say nothing. but instead respond in a k nee jerk way- which is really more about a strategy- which is to say that he is pointing out that he was a good sec of navy. on the substance- where it matters- will he fight for progressive causes? we have indicators that he will- unlike HRC for example he has every reason to pander on the flag burning issue- that would play well with the Reagan Democrats- that he did not should tell y ou something about his character. I am not saying it should tell you everything but the picture you are creating for him is a false one. And that's why the comment is beneath you. it's not based on any honest analysis of the Webb. On the substance he has gone out o n a limb for VA to support things that even you would have to admit is  on the liberal/progressive side of the aisle. I think your issue is that he is not just one thing. He is not a checklist upon which you cansay- he's 'this and only this.' I have a different requirement. My requirement is not only where a person has been- but a) what's his positions on issues now b) what is his character (I see the ad as about the character factor- not the issues factor) c) temperment- is he a fighter- he has shown that he is d) does he buy into republican memes- no again- he has shown he does not.

Your thesis is- he used a part of his history which included working for a Republican Prez-t herefore he is REpublican. I see the ad through a different light. I am sorry you are so unforgiving that you aren't willing to do so. Luckily you are n't a VA voter and don't matter in the discussion. Neither do I really anymore. I just know as someone from VA, with family i n the military, with the way he has ran his campaign- he has so far shown himself to be someone who would make a good Sen for my state.

by bruh21 2006-09-11 03:22PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

Not only does the ad never mention that Webb is a Democrat, it prominently features Ronald Reagan in both words and images.

Would you put Reagan and his words in your ads if you weren't going to govern like a Reagan Democrat (which is to govern like a Republican)?

If you answer yes, then you would be a dishonest politician.

by Sitkah 2006-09-11 03:36PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

It depends ont he circumstances. If I were trying to tell a voter- as he is here- this is my record and I think its a pretty good one compared to the boozo you got now- then yes. Especially if I knew it would keep him on the defensive, and make me look good. Notice he isn't changing his positions on the issues from what I can tell. You are confusing strategy with positions on issues. I would be worried if I thought he was a triagulator a la Ford or HRC. But, he reps to m y mind something new- that Paul Hacket rep'ed too. A new way of doing t hings. Do I think I am always going to agree with  him? No. Do I think he really is a Reaganite? No. First off t he first rule for Reagan was the 11th commandment- which was never speak ill of the Republicans. I know enough REpublicans to know privately they will tell me they hate bush but they will still vote for  him. That's how they think. Machine like. On most of the key domestic issues, and most of the foreign policy stuff (except gay civil unions- I am for gay marriage) he and I aren't that far apart. I don't think he is perfect, but I dont think he is a Reaganite Republican. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt to find out because of what he has said and what he has done recently to prove it. Either you are or you are not. Ask me again in a couple of years what he is. Maybe I will think differently then. But I definitely know what ALlen is- and Webb is 100 times better. I see Webb as a good moderate (but not centrist) democrat. There is a big difference. The Centrist triangulates, the moderate has values that they will not triangulage on- again I point to the flag burning. It's a trivial issue- but that's the point. Because it is trivial he could have triangulated like HRC. Yet, he choose not to. That tells me something about his character that I like.

by bruh21 2006-09-11 03:44PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

Any politician who plasters his ads with Reagan's image and words is giving people the impression that he would govern as Reagan would.

You can be as verbose and twist as many logic pretzels as you like if it eases your mind about supporting Webb (and I've never said you shouldn't support him), but you can't refute the obvious.

by Sitkah 2006-09-11 05:08PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

good luck sitkah- you feel the need to bullshit me by taking everything you say to amake you right. I have yet to see you post an argument by the way. Just a bunch of random bullshit about how you dont like him using Reagan in his ad. Good for fucking you. I dont care anymore what you think of the issue because when I bother to go through the trouble to put up arguments, and the other guy doesn't other than to disparage my arguments. That tells me you have zip zero constructive to add in terms of your position. And to that- like I said good luck, because I am not interested in playing. laterz

by bruh21 2006-09-11 05:27PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

Whatever the point of your post is, it certainly isn't constructive. In fact, it's personally hostile. I don't know if it's sad or amusing that some people get so bent out of shape by the opinions of others.

But what IS funny is that I wasn't even the one to point out that Webb is not identifying himself as a Democrat and is selling himself as an admirer of Reagan (and one would assume his policies). Oh well, if you can't shoot the messenger (in this case Chris Bowers), I guess you shoot anyone who quotes him.

by Sitkah 2006-09-11 05:45PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

Are you drunk, Sitkha?  'Cuz you're making comments that read more like a drunk trying to pick a bar fight than someone trying to have a conversation.

If Jim Webb is a Reagan clone than I'm Batgirl.  

Finding a video of Ronald Reagan praising your candidate by name?  That's pennies from heaven in a Virginia senate race against George Allen.  A campaign manager would be a horse's ass not to throw it in an ad.  

Chris' comments were constructive.  Yours were not.

So, do us all a favor, Sitkah: stop calling Jim Webb names.  He's a good candidate and a fine man who has served this country multiple times in the military and in government.  

And it just so happens, Jim Webb is working his butt off to knock out one of the most dangerous bigots the Republicans have dished out in a long while.  Jim Webb has done more to help the Democrats and the Progressive movement in the past week than you've done in your whole life--and he deserves our respect and our help to get him over the top in the next two months.

Get drunk all you want--that's your business.  But don't mouth off about Webb.  

by Jeffrey Feldman 2006-09-11 05:49PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

Why can't you and others discuss Webb without having to resort to personal insults? Is he THAT indefensible?

If Jim Webb is a Reagan clone than I'm Batgirl.

What was I thinking by interpreting his ads which rely on images and words of Reagan? Of COURSE he's a Democrat! How can everyone not see it clearly?

Chris' comments were constructive.

And I quoted them.

stop calling Jim Webb names

Is calling a Democrat who puts Reagan in his ads a "Reagan Democrat" name calling? I don't think so, since that's obviously what he wants people to think. (someone else first used the term "Reagan clone," BTW.)

Get drunk all you want--that's your business.  But don't mouth off about Webb.

I don't drink. But I'm starting wonder if the overt hostility in the recent responses to my posts was alcohol induced.

And the last time I checked, you aren't one who decides what can be said on this blog -- especially when it's in basic agreement with the original thread.

by Sitkah 2006-09-11 06:16PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

That's right.  And by quoting Mussolini in your comment signature,  what you 'obviously' want people to see that you are Mussolini Democrat.

Get a grip.  

Your point about what is 'obvious' about Jim Webb's ad is just a pretext for a childish smear of a Democratic candidate for associating himself in an ad with Reagan--an act that you have decided is a hanging offense and a betrayal of the movement.  Your comments are gatekeeping statements, claims to decide who is and who is not a member in good standing.  And now that you're being called on them, you're whining.

What's 'obvious' to me is that you haven't really thought beyond seeing Reagan's face in the ad.  That seems to have caught you like a deer in the headlights.  

Why,  for example, isn't it that he 'obviously' wants people to see him being praised by a well-liked politician?

Why isn't it that he 'obviously' wants people to see that he has a record of accomplishment in government?

Why isn't it that he 'obviously' wants  people to see that he has the ability to work with both Democrats and Republicans?

Why isn't it that he 'obviously' wants people to see that he has experience  in a positin of military leadership?

Why isn't it that he 'obviously' wants people to see that he has a long record in public service?

There are dozens of 'obvious' reasons to show that ad other than the one, simplistic hobbyhorse you have repeated over and over as a pretext for smearing Jim Webb as a 'clone.'

But none of these other reasons is 'obvious' to you--only that he  will 'govern like Reagan,' and that he is 'dishonest' and slippery--none of which are true.  You saw a picture of Reagan,  so you spun it into a riff of epithets against Jim Webb.  You hate Reagan--great.  Nobody here likes Reagan, so you don't need to prove you dislike him more than anyone else.  

You seem to have lost your way in this comment thread, thinking that by calling Webb a 'clone' and 'dishonest' you are somehow protecting the Democratic party, but you are not. This isn't a primary where a progressive Democrat is running against a conservative Democrat.  This is the race for a seat in Virginia.  So if you're going to call our candidate 'dishonest' and a 'clone,' then you are working against him.  All you are doing is hurling baseless insults against a good Democrat in a close race.  

by Jeffrey Feldman 2006-09-12 03:55AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

That's right.  And by quoting Mussolini in your comment signature,  what you 'obviously' want people to see that you are Mussolini Democrat. Get a grip.  

I'm sorry, but that's just stupid.

As for the rest of your post, it has nothing to do with what I've been saying on this thread, Therefor, I dismiss you.

by Sitkah 2006-09-12 06:39AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

You smear a Democratic candidate--call him a clone, dishonest and a slippery eel--and now you are dismissing me?

My mistake.  I didn't realize MyDD was a one-way soap box for you to insult Democrats and express your general disdain for people who run for or hold office.

by Jeffrey Feldman 2006-09-12 06:48AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable

It depends ont he circumstances. If I were trying to tell a voter- as he is here- this is my record and I think its a pretty good one compared to the boozo you got now- then yes. Especially if I knew it would keep him on the defensive, and make me look good. Notice he isn't changing his positions on the issues from what I can tell. You are confusing strategy with positions on issues. I would be worried if I thought he was a triagulator a la Ford or HRC. But, he reps to m y mind something new- that Paul Hacket rep'ed too. A new way of doing t hings. Do I think I am always going to agree with  him? No. Do I think he really is a Reaganite? No. First off t he first rule for Reagan was the 11th commandment- which was never speak ill of the Republicans. I know enough REpublicans to know privately they will tell me they hate bush but they will still vote for  him. That's how they think. Machine like. On most of the key domestic issues, and most of the foreign policy stuff (except gay civil unions- I am for gay marriage) he and I aren't that far apart. I don't think he is perfect, but I dont think he is a Reaganite Republican. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt to find out because of what he has said and what he has done recently to prove it. Either you are or you are not. Ask me again in a couple of years what he is. Maybe I will think differently then. But I definitely know what ALlen is- and Webb is 100 times better. I see Webb as a good moderate (but not centrist) democrat. There is a big difference. The Centrist triangulates, the moderate has values that they will not triangulage on- again I point to the flag burning. It's a trivial issue- but that's the point. Because it is trivial he could have triangulated like HRC. Yet, he choose not to. That tells me something about his character that I like.

by bruh21 2006-09-11 03:44PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable

I'm merely judging Webb based on the content of his TV ad --  as the voters he shows it to will. And, as I'm sure he intended, he sounds like a Reagan Democrat based on its content.

If he's not one, then he's misleading the voters. If he is one, then more than one person here has been trying to mislead me.

by Sitkah 2006-09-11 06:56PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable

why dont you do me a favor and actually go through the effort of looking at what webb has actually said on this site he stands for. if you aren't willing to do your basic due dilligence before proclaiming someone to be a Reagan clone then that is a mar on your credibility. All the ad say is that he was a good Sec of Navy under Reagan- what's misleading or a lie about that? it's simply a fact. THe reason why you have a problem with it is you can't wrap you mind around the idea that one could have been a good sec of navy under reagan and still have progressive (all be it moderate progressive) values now. That frankly like I have said- is your  issue. I asked some of the same questions you did- but I bothered to ask them of peo and to see what hte answer was first because I gave someone the benefit of the doubt before flying off handle with no more proof other than a bio ad to suggest to me what a candidate is or is not. It is simply in bad taste and disrespect that yo uare going on so little as a bio ad to tell us who Webb is.

by bruh21 2006-09-11 08:36PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable

why dont you do me a favor and actually go through the effort of looking at what webb has actually said on this site he stands for.

We're talking about his ad which depicts him as a Reagan Democrat. If he's not one, then you must agree that it's disingenuous for him to portray himself that way.

if you aren't willing to do your basic due dilligence before proclaiming someone to be a Reagan clone then that is a mar on your credibility.

Due diligence would cause you to realize that this was the post which first characterized Webb as a "Reagan clone". I originally referred to him as a "Reaganoid". See how easy it is to jump to a wrong conclusion when you let your emotions do the talking instead of finding out the truth?

THe reason why you have a problem with it is you can't wrap you mind around the idea that one could have been a good sec of navy under reagan and still have progressive (all be it moderate progressive) values now.

Why would Regan hire a liberal to be NavySec? And if Webb really is a liberal, why is he trying to trick voters into thinking he's a Reagan Democrat? He should be honest with voters. Do you think otherweise?

That frankly like I have said- is your  issue.

When you get your degree in psychoanalysis (or mind reading - whichever)) let me know and I'll buy you a graduation present.

I gave someone the benefit of the doubt before flying off handle with no more proof other than a bio ad to suggest to me what a candidate is or is not.

What do you think voters will think of Webb when they see the ad -- that he's an R-D as the ad suggests or a liberal as you claim? It's Webb's message, not yours, which counts.

It is simply in bad taste and disrespect that yo uare going on so little as a bio ad to tell us who Webb is

I'll keep repeating it until you get it. I'm not telling you who Webb is -- his ad is.

by Sitkah 2006-09-11 09:07PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable

I didn't even bother to read your post after the first line- if you are not going to read about what he actually stands for then you really have nothing to contribute on the subject of whether he is a "reagan clone".

by bruh21 2006-09-12 05:07AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable

I didn't read yours either.

by Sitkah 2006-09-12 06:49AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable

oh and ps- just for the record- the reason why I can understand an evolution in beliefs is that I also went through similar evolutions in my beliefs. I was and remain a Democrat, but I was more conservative younger than I am now as I get older and rethought my views. If I had his background, and I thought it would help me- I would use it too, and I wouldn't think that means I am somehow less clear about where I stand today on issues because I had a good resume.

by bruh21 2006-09-11 08:38PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable

You should put that in your next ad.

by Sitkah 2006-09-11 09:09PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable

you are trying to be funny- but you really aren't all that funny because your timing sucks in terms of tone and subject matter. It maybe funny to you, but any commedian who tells a joke just for himself is going to find a quiet audience. But, then, I find on these Internets, and in this period in history most Americans walk around in their own little bubble so why should you be any different. That was me being philisophical which means its time to stop talking to you. Peace.

by bruh21 2006-09-12 05:05AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable

I thought you'd never shut up. Thanks.

by Sitkah 2006-09-12 06:50AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

PS

I am old fashion in someways- I think of the biggest issues in the party isn't our positions. I agreee with the progressives, but on others I am moderate. I thinkt he biggest issue is that we can sometimes be weak in character. We need men and women regardless of whether they are perfect who can act as a counter weight to those in theparty who would continue tot riangulate.

by bruh21 2006-09-11 03:47PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

No, it would make me shrewd in realizing that, in a military & reagan democrat-heavy area like the Tidewater, it would be prudent to feature RR prominently in a BIOGRAPHICAL ad by RR's former SECRETARY OF THE NAVY. Nowhere does it mention Webb agreeing with Reagan or describing how he would govern, only introducing the candidate by focusing on his major career highlight. Face it, a number of people who were and are good democrats supported Reagan because they liked him personally, admired his optimism, and were unimpressed with his opponents carter and mondale.

by elessar 2006-09-11 03:52PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

I have tried on multiple post to make that point to Sitkah. Indeed, I was then told I am using twisted logic, but calling Webb a Reagan clone without any actual positions on issues to back up the claim is 'logical." My advice to you- don't waste your time. This is a person who isn't have a dialogue other than with themselves., and you won't be convincing Sitkah of anything because their  mind is made up. A made up mind is like concrete- you aren't going to get through to him.

by bruh21 2006-09-11 05:30PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

I've been trying  multiple posts to make a point to you which keeps going right over your head. You're obviously not stupid, so it must be because you simply can't brook any opinions but your own. That's a bad way to be in on a forum where freedom of thought and speech are exercised.

by Sitkah 2006-09-12 06:58AM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

Thank you for not trying to deny that Webb is portraying himself as a Reagan supporter.

We can disagree on whether that's an honest approach or a good thing to actually be (and as I said long ago, I think he's honestly a Reaganoid and that it's a bad thing to be) but there's no doubt that when Webb put Reagan's image and words in his ad we was wanting voters to associate them together.

by Sitkah 2006-09-12 07:06AM | 0 recs
You contradict yourself

. Numbers like these strongly suggest that Webb will not only pull ahead of Allen, but comfortably pull ahead of Allen once they have comparable name ID's....

Thus, in order to win, Webb will have to rely on a large portion of the electorate being willing to vote not for Webb, but rather to vote for a generic Democrat.

So you have two groups of voters, ones who will know who Webb is, and ones who don't.  This add is obviously an attempt to get the first people, and raise his Name ID with a simple ad.

Besides, the ones who won't know how Webb is are people who are not even going to be watching much TV and see the ads anyway; otherwise they would know where he is.  By your own assumptions, Webb is doing the correct thing.

This is just another complaint about TV ads that appeal to people who aren't you.  If all the voters felt the same way you did, we wouldn't be in this mess to begin with, would we?

by delmoi 2006-09-11 12:03PM | 0 recs
Re: You contradict yourself
It is not a contradiction. The first one was saying that he could comfortably win if his name ID was equal to Allen. The second statement pointed out that would never happen. That is why I argued he current strategy would not work.
by Chris Bowers 2006-09-11 09:49PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races and Admitting To Being

I would guess it's a great ad for the southern part of Virginia, where it's airing. This race is probably gonna come down to Scott Howell's ads anyway.

by Jerome Armstrong 2006-09-11 12:11PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races and Admitting To Being

Jerome - Did Kaine or Warner mention their party affiliation in their races for Gov?

by John Mills 2006-09-11 01:41PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races and Admitting To Being

I don't recall Kaine doing so, not sure about Warner during '01.

by Jerome Armstrong 2006-09-11 04:24PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races and Admitting To Being

Thanks.  I worked for a Dem Congressman from Roanoke in the late 80s and he never mentioned he was a Dem.  Was wondering if things had changed.

by John Mills 2006-09-11 07:08PM | 0 recs
I agree sort of...

Every response from Webb, so far, seems to hard hitting and on message. This might not be as a bad an ad as you think if the next run comes around. I believe that the first ad blurring the distinction FOR republican voters is a smart move. It's there on video, Ronald Reagan giving lavish praise upon Webb. With Nancy Reagan getting involved it just means a wider audience. In one commercial Webb's team defined his character to Independents and Republicans using the GOD of GOP. The smart move from here on out is one of distinction, with branding coming to the front.    

by Citizen80203 2006-09-11 12:46PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

Specifics of the ad according to peo like Lowkell (the online manager for Webb's run) is the following, just so people can know:

a) it's a bio ad designed to deal with name recognition.

b) it's targetted at not only Southern VA (where I would argue if he can get good enough numbers there, he can have a better shot of winning because he probably will take NoVA) but more specifically the military population which VA has a hight amount of.

c) it's also targetted at the Reagan Democrats

d) The ad has already resulted in some free publicity for Webb - not sure if the nancy reagan story will help or hurt him, but we will see.

e) It definitely allowed Webb to respond with a contrasting moment- ie, his actual military service versus Allen's faux-patriotism.

f) As others have mentioned- Webb has shown his willingess to fight conservative symbolism memes- ie, the flag burning issue for example this summer and the "Felix" language out of Webb's campaign.

Overall I am actually impressed with this campaign because they have been using every opportunity to take it to the other side. If the only complaint is the lack of "Democrat" label- that's not exactly a strong complaint given the counter balancing forces at this juncture. Things can still go wrong- he might start running from what he is - but with Webb, I doubt that will happen.

by bruh21 2006-09-11 01:05PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

ps one other point: the ad places Allen and his campaign on the defensive. If you want to understand why Allen hasn't been on his game (they were due to start with the dirty campaign tricks of defining Webb  by now) it is because he is busy trying to play defensive against Webb and the free publicity regarding macaca and other things. This ad continues that because Allen will  have to fight to consolidate his base which  he is not guaranteed he can do.

by bruh21 2006-09-11 01:08PM | 0 recs
Well

The people on this and other left-leaning blogs are NOT the target of the ad. The ad is geared probably toward military voters in the Hampton Roads/Tidewater VA area, a bloc that Webb needs to win if he is to defeat Allen. VA is not San Francisco.

Webb worked for Reagan. I don't see what is so wrong about him admitting that he was his Secretary of the Navy. For voters in VA the assocaition with Reagan will win him voters in the Tidewater region.

Rightly or wrongly some of you have to realize that the vast majority of Americans respect Reagan and thinks of him fondly. Even among registered Democrats Reagan is probably well-respected. I didn't agree with a lot of his polcies, but the narrative of Reagan has been set. Most people in this country revere him, especially in conservative states like Virginia.

Working for Reagan is part of Webb's background. Frankly he is dumb not to highlight that. His highlight of Reagan's comments makes him attractive to voters who would normally support Allen.

I think that the far left is being irrational in attacking Webb for mentioning Reagan in his TV ads.

by jiacinto 2006-09-11 01:27PM | 0 recs
Read the thread

Many of the "far left" have voiced just such an argument.

by Citizen80203 2006-09-11 01:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Well

Thank you for beating me to the punch.

by ira13ping 2006-09-11 02:10PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races and Admitting To Being

Chris you make some valid points, but you miss the biggest problem with this ad, it alieanates a large part of the Democratic base. Previous to Macaca most of the undecideds were blacks and women. After Macaca they moved to Webb. This ad could alienate them.

Moreover, there is no evidence to suggest that the image of Reagan is as influential as has been suggested.

by Alice Marshall 2006-09-11 01:34PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races and Admitting To Being

actually, I doubt many of the "democratic base" in virginia, largely based in Richmond and NOVA, will see it as the ad is targeted at the heavily military-oriented Tidewater. Plus, I'd doubt they'd dislike Webb simply b/c reagan said some good things about them.

However, complaints like this are typical for disgruntled Harris Miller supporters like Alice, who never liked Webb anyway. If you want to see what VA progressives think, visit Raising Kaine.

by elessar 2006-09-11 01:53PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races and Admitting To Being

Plus, in many parts of VA, its not always prudent to introduce oneself as a Dem, b/c many in the Tidewater, while supportive of state dems like Warner and Kaine, are leary of federal dems. Webb's approach is to make tidewater voters comfortable with him before displaying his views and affiliation.

by elessar 2006-09-11 02:02PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races and Admitting To Being

Much of the navy, especially enlisted, are black. This is explains why Bayside precinct, home of the Norfolk Naval Shipyard, is reliably Democratic. The Norfolk TV stations viewing area goes as far west as Franklin, and I think Emporia, although it has been too long since I was in Emporia to be sure. The viewing area includes Norfolk, VA Beach, Newport News, Hampton, Yorktown, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Suffolk County, Isle of Wight, and Southampton counties. I am not sure, but I suspect it also includes Surrey and Greenville counties. There are many black and female voters in these jurisdictions.

While the Roanoke viewing area is predominately white, the city has a large black population which is critical to our victory in November.

I raise these concerns because Democrats will have to address them if we are to assemble a winning coalition.

by Alice Marshall 2006-09-11 02:17PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable Races

I grew up in the areas you are talking about. Yes, it is reliably black,a nd reliably Democrats voters. I doubt this ad will turn them off from voting Democratic to go for Allen. Second, the ad is targetted at Reagan Democrats- I doubt many black voters will look at it and go- okay he isn't interested in us. Third, the campaign actually is starting to make out reach to the AA community- at least according to some of the blogs I have been reading. Oh, and I am saying this as a black guy- if I hadn't mentioned it who grew up i n the parts of the state you are referencing- and/or know a lot of folks from there. The military record will play well there- not because its Reagan but because it will make it clear to peo that this guy understands their experience with being in the military. I am not exactly sure how he could have done more in one ad to effectively keep Allen on t he defensive-b ut apparently had to not only do that but convince you he was in support of black issues?

by bruh21 2006-09-11 02:38PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable

I grew up in the areas you are talking about. Yes, it is reliably black,a nd reliably Democrats voters. I doubt this ad will turn them off from voting Democratic to go for Allen. Second, the ad is targetted at Reagan Democrats- I doubt many black voters will look at it and go- okay he isn't interested in us. Third, the campaign actually is starting to make out reach to the AA community- at least according to some of the blogs I have been reading. Oh, and I am saying this as a black guy- if I hadn't mentioned it who grew up i n the parts of the state you are referencing- and/or know a lot of folks from there. The military record will play well there- not because its Reagan but because it will make it clear to peo that this guy understands their experience with being in the military. I am not exactly sure how he could have done more in one ad to effectively keep Allen on t he defensive-b ut apparently had to not only do that but convince you he was in support of black issues?

by bruh21 2006-09-11 02:38PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable

If you live in that area, or are in communication with people who do, then you would know better than I.

by Alice Marshall 2006-09-11 03:19PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable

I have been trying to follow it through raising kaine, not sabato, and also through friends and family whos till live there. M y issue with your analysis is that it seems counter to logic. Blacks are going to vore for Allen, a known racists, because of what? One ad that really is about Webb being a Sec of Navy. On the issues that matter- Affirmative action, economic grotwh, education, Iraq, etc- Webb has said the things that matter to most people I know. he needs better out reach- but I don't think this ad will hurt him.

by bruh21 2006-09-11 03:26PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable

I don't think there is any possibility of a significant number of blacks voting for Allen, although I recently learned Allen does better than most Republicans in black precincts. I have no way to explain that, but it seems he does.

Bobby Scott, the black congressman in the 3rd CD has no opposition, the Democrats have no congressional candidate in the fourth. That, by itself, will drive down Democratic turnout in the 3rd and 4th CD, where most black Virginians live. I am worried that much of our base, not just black voters, will be staying home on election day.

Webb will win big in my area. I wonder if those who question my commitment to this campaign have spent as much time as I have on the phone, working in my precinct, working every weekend on the Democratic canvass, not including my work on voter registration.

I raise concerns about this ad because I just don't believe it will work. As I have said before, there is no evidence to suggest that Reagan's image has anything like the political power that has been suggested.

by Alice Marshall 2006-09-11 03:59PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable

I honestly dont thinkt he ad hurts. I think it helps in Southern VA as a biographical ad. it wont make or break the reace. It's a good ad the sense that it intros an important part of Webb's bio- that he was a Sec of Navy and may have an added benefit or not -who knows- of putting the other side on the defensive. The goal is define yourself before you opponent does. They will try to claim Webb is an extremist who has no way of understandign their issues. This makes that sort of argument harder to make. I think overall as I have said its a good ad because it does the two things I mention. is it perfect? No. but is it what sitkah above is saying- that it makes webb a reaganite clone? i find that statement offensive because its not even factually accurate. as to your points- we will see. What I like about Wwebb so far is that he is willing to experiment it seems and run as himself. Whether that will suceed- I don't know. I think this helps- not because of Reagan per se but to pre empt the otherside.

On another point- what I thought were general pts that Matt and Bowers were making about dems apparently is now becoming their mantra for everything. I dont know how useful it is to say that every ad has to be exaclty like every ad. I would think it would depend on its purpose. Thi sad is targetted at the military- wouldn't it make sense to show the commandaer in chief- regardless of party- praising someone with an exeplary military record? What would peo have him do- ignore that part of biography although it is advantageous to use it? Do they want him to put disclaimer on it saying although I was sec of nav under reagan I dont expouse his views? I suppose saying dem would help that, but I dont think its fatal to this ad becaus eit does other things. I guess my point is that we have to allow for ads doing other things versus some of the ads in the past which didn't seem like they were accomplsihign even other goals much less the issue matt and bowers bring up.

by bruh21 2006-09-11 05:38PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Sen: Winnable

Thanks for your thoughts.  I find it hard to believe that this ad will not be a net positive for Webb.

The Nancy Reagan thing is a bit tricky, but my sense is that the GOP won't be able to stir up any more outrage than they have to date, particularly after the party gave her the middle finger on the stem cell issue.  I just don't see them getting any more of an objection than the spokesman's letter they already have.

by Steve M 2006-09-11 03:37PM | 0 recs
Campaign Manager

I gotta' ask, anyone know what Steve Jarding has been up to lately in this campaign?

by ira13ping 2006-09-11 02:11PM | 0 recs
One size does not fit all

Chris - this is your advice in every state. Virginia is a state where IIRC Republicans control almost 2/3 of the legislature. How did Kaine and Warner win? I don't believe it was by emphasizing their Democratic brand. Let people in Virginia make this judgment. It sounds like a suicidal gesture to me in this particular state.

by Wayne Miller 2006-09-11 03:43PM | 0 recs
Re: One size does not fit all

Agree with most of what you said, but the margins in the state legislature are WAY closer than you describe. The house of delegates is 57-40-3 R, with one D-leaing and 2 R-leaning indies. The state senate is 23-17 R, but one R Russ Potts votes more like a dem especially since his indie bid for gov.

by elessar 2006-09-11 03:57PM | 0 recs
Party labels in VA

Are party labels even attached to candidates in federal elections in Virginia? I know for our off year elections there are no party labels. I talked to a Republican poll worker during the last Presidential primary and he indicated that the Republican party had intentionally made so that there was no party affiliation listed. The Republicans had also got rid of staight ticket voting, forcing the voter to vote for each candidate rather than simply for a party. The idea, obviously, was to make life more difficult for working and poor Virginians who don't follow politics closely and who would normally be tempted to just punch the Democratic lever and be done with it.

by cap and gown 2006-09-11 04:24PM | 0 recs
not really

While I appreciate your critique, I think it takes up a bit of a theoretical, text-bookish position given all we know about this race right now.

It's a good ad for the obvious reason that it steals one of Allen's last remaining strong points right out from under him.  Allen has a picture of himself posing with Reagan on his Webb site.

This is a body blow to Allen's so-called claims to Conservative lineage in an increasing effort to paint Allen into a corner--which is working.

After this, Allen will be a small-time bigot whose claims to his own political heritage are flimsy.

If anything, this is the time for Jim to turn on that big smile of his.  I think he's done a great job showing that he is grounded in the kind of bipartisan roots one needs to carry all of Virginia--now he needs to turn on the personality and win some hearts.

by Jeffrey Feldman 2006-09-11 05:14PM | 0 recs
LOL!

"web site" not "Webb site" ...freudeian slip.

by Jeffrey Feldman 2006-09-11 05:14PM | 0 recs
Reminds me of Bill McBride's ad in Florida 2002

His campaign thought they had a secret weapon, an old clip where I think Jeb made a speech calling McBride "a great American."

When I heard about this ad, that was the first thing I thought of. I'm sure the Webb campaign was giddy to locate this tape but no doubt they overplayed it's signficance. I understand the strategy of playing it in Southern Virginia, but how do you know it won't remind Republicans how much they liked Reagan, and inspire them to vote in higher numbers this year? In that case, the net advantage among the group would go to Allen.

IMO we need more implosion from Allen to win this race. I believe the incumbent rule will be strong in gov races but we can all but ignore it in federal races like this, especially in a state that is still red, by probably 4-5 points at base instinct.

The telling number is Allen's favorable 41-31 approval rating, despite the recent problems. You're not going to knock out an incumbent unless the challenger is considered exceptional and likable, and/or the incumbent is mired in horrid approval ratings. I guess Webb has a good chance if that 28-7 indeed translates to 55-35 once his name ID zooms.

by jagakid 2006-09-11 05:52PM | 0 recs

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