Gallup Polls Five Key Senate Races
by Jonathan Singer, Fri Sep 01, 2006 at 09:52:13 AM EDT
This morning USA Today and Gallup released polling from five of the most hotly contested Senate races this year. While the numbers provide further indication that the Democrats are headed towards picking up seats this November, they indicate the road to a majority in the Senate will be difficult.
- PA-Sen: Democratic state Treasurer Bob Casey leads Republican Senator Rick Santorum by 18 percent among likely voters, 14 percent among registered voters.
- MN-Sen: Democrat Amy Klobuchar leads Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy by 10 percent among likely voters and 7 percent among registered voters.
- OH-Sen: Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown leads GOP Senator Mike DeWine by 6 percent among likely voters, 2 percent among registered voters.
- MT-Sen: Democratic state Senate President Jon Tester leads Republican incumbent Conrad Burns by 3 percent among likely voters, though Burns holds a 2 percent edge among registered voters.
- MO-Sen: GOP Sen. Jim Talent leads Democratic state Auditor Claire McCaskill by 6 percent among likely voters, though the race is tied among registered voters.
Given the fact that the Senate seat in Minnesota, which for some time appeared to be the Republicans' best opportunity for a pick-up this year, is trending away from Kennedy and that likely voter polling shows Democratic leads against incumbent Republican Senators (not to mention other surveys that show Lincoln Chafee and perhaps even George Allen in real jeopardy this year), it seems fairly safe to say that the Democrats will see a net increase in Senate seats this year. Nevertheless, as mcjoan notes over at Daily Kos, "we have a lot of ground to cover" in trying to win that sixth seat and control over the Senate.