Prediction Thread

I have been up for about three hours now, and I still do not have any substantive content for a new post. The office is running smoothly here, and so far I have only been needed to pick up breakfast, watch the sign-in sheet, and serve as a human doorstop downstairs from 5:15--5:45 when the office building was not open yet. Eddie went over the impressive field plan with me, and this office alone has deployed around 100 people so far. Nothing is being left to chance.

In lieu of more substantive content, let's make this thread our great prediction thread. Make sure you take your predictions down to one-tenth of a precent. Otherwise, you are just being chicken.

My guess: Lamont 52.2--47.7 Lieberman. After the defeat causes him to lag behind Lamont in three-way polls, Lieberman vows to run as a member of the House of Lords if he loses in November.

Tags: CT-Sen (all tags)

Comments

79 Comments

Re: Prediction Thread

Lamont 56.8
Lieberman 43.2

I think the margin will be larger than you predict, Chris, for three reasons:

1) Yesterday's Q poll overstated Joe's support (within its margin of error)

2) The likely voter models understated Lamont's advantage both with educated voters and with intensity of support

3) The Lamont ground game is going to come through!

by deminva 2006-08-08 04:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread
Lamont- 53.5
Lieberman- 46.5
by malkori 2006-08-08 04:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

I was just gonna post one of these.  I pick Lamont by 3-4%

Lamont 51.75%
Lieberman 48.25%

by Winston Smith 2006-08-08 04:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Also since this is an open thread, maybe the Connecticut voters would like to post all the fun they had voting for Lamont, or whoever.  If chit-chat is allowed.

by Winston Smith 2006-08-08 04:24AM | 0 recs
by Winston Smith 2006-08-08 08:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread
Lamont-52
Loserman-48--you know I really dislike this sorry excuse for a Senator more and more--you know we need an acronym for Fox News Democrats
by burroughs 2006-08-08 04:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

How about bush democrats?
 

by heyAnita 2006-08-08 04:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

I think "Republican" covers that just fine.  

Like Stephen Colbert said, "One of my favorite Republicans; Democratic Senator Joe Lieberman."

by John Nicosia 2006-08-08 07:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

lamont 51.2
lieberman 48.8

The entire democrat machinery evens the race by a few points (I want to believe it's effective, even if it's working against us!), but it's not enough as Lamont ekes out a win.

by aip 2006-08-08 04:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Lamont-50.0001
Lieberman-49.9999

Every vote counts.

by howie14 2006-08-08 04:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

58-42, Lamont

by Matt Stoller 2006-08-08 04:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Uh oh, Matt, Chris just called you a chicken.

Lamont 51.5
Lieberman 48.5

by JAmbro 2006-08-08 04:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

I scoff at Chris 'I love Project Runway' Bowers and his silly taunts.  Predicting a win by 17 is good enough!

by Matt Stoller 2006-08-08 06:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Lamont 53.1
Lieberman 46.9

A second prediction: If Lieberman loses, Stephen Colbert will say its because he didn't come on his show.

Mark my words.

by Matt Ortega 2006-08-08 04:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread
Lamont 54.2
Lieberman 45.7
by Wayne in Missouri 2006-08-08 04:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Lamont: 53
Lieberman: 47

Lieberman exits the race tonight, backing Lamont, as he should.

DeStefano beats Malloy for the Dem. Gubernatorial Nomination.

by Max Friedman 2006-08-08 04:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Lamont 52.3
Lieberman 47.7

Lieberman runs as a Connecticut for Lieberman, and then caucuses with the Republicans. This sets the stage for his second veep run, but this one the Republican ticket.

by DemoCratic 2006-08-08 04:50AM | 0 recs
Maybe you're just being snarky

But Lieberman's usefulness to the Republican Party ends if he were ever to become a card-carrying Republican. He would then be castigated for being one of the most liberal Republicans.

by Preston 2006-08-08 04:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Ehm, let's say

Lamont 56.9
Lieberman 43.1

In response to this Loserman will rally no less than 15 staffers to march with him to CT's equivalent of the Zocalo and demand a complete recount. If not granted instantly, he will phone every lobbyist he knows in DC and they will do some civil disobedience which will later evolve into a major snortfest.
Got Joementum? Hahahhaha!

by cwkraus4clark 2006-08-08 04:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Lamont 57%
Lieberman 43%

In an emotional farewell to politics Lieberman invokes the Al Gore goodbye speech and goes of to spend several months introspectively examining how thing fell apart so quickly.

by smacfarl 2006-08-08 04:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread
Lamont 54.3
Lieberman 45.7
by titanrw 2006-08-08 04:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread
52.6, Lamont
47.3, Lieberman.
by Natyjalm 2006-08-08 04:54AM | 0 recs
Come on, no pessimists?

by Preston 2006-08-08 04:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

OK, pessimistic...

Lieberman 53
Lamont 47

Hope this is off the mark, but I'm concerned about the one-sided, pro-Lieberman coverage over the last week...

by paulmer0054 2006-08-08 05:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Yeah, call me naive, but I've pretty surprised how poor the reporting has been over the past three days.  

The national media has really helped Lieberman, and if he wins, he can thank them.  

by Eric11 2006-08-08 08:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Optimistic:

Lamont 58
Lieberman 42

Lieberman publicly maintains he will run as an independent for some time, and then drops out within a few weeks after seeing his support in the polls fall through.

by fgvanzee 2006-08-08 05:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Establishment candidates nearly always win.

Lieberman 51.5%
Lamont 47.5%

Just off the top of my head, in recent years... here is a list of candidates with similar energy to Lamont's who failed to meet expectations.

Nader in 2000 getting 5% - NO, ~3%

Howard Dean winning the Dem primary - NO

Matt Gonzalez winning the SF Mayoral race - NO, even with the final pre-election polls showing Gonzalez winning, he lost 52-48.

Machines are too powerful, big media is too powerful, and once inside the ballot box, enough voters will get cold feet and go for Lamont. Lieberman is comfort; Lamont is a movement and that makes too many people nervous.

I wish I was wrong but I've had a bad feeling about Lamont's chances for awhile. I really hope I'm wrong and Lamont wins but I doubt it.

by Dooker 2006-08-08 05:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Lieberman 51.5
Lamont 48.5

This result is due to republicans crossing over to vote as dems.  

I hope I'm wrong.

by ksh 2006-08-08 08:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Republicans had to change party in May in order to vote in today's primary.  And since noone thought Lamont was serious candidate then, I doubt many cared enough to do so.  

by Winston Smith 2006-08-08 08:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

oh. d'oh.

ok.  thanks.  I feel better now.

by ksh 2006-08-08 09:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

gonna update your prediction?

by Winston Smith 2006-08-08 09:42AM | 0 recs
Yes

Lamont 51.78
Lieberman 48.22

Heh.

by ksh 2006-08-08 09:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Lamont 51.8
Lieberman 48.2

I think it's gonna be a tight race. meba

by Traviolla 2007-09-13 11:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Oops, that's only 99%. Ok, Lieberman 52.5%, Lamont 47.5%

by Dooker 2006-08-08 05:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread


Lamont  55.0,  Lieberman  45.0.

1.  The last poll was an aberration.

2.   Lamont  supports are really motivated, Joe folk are ambivalent

3.   Talked to the  Lamont  pollwatcher  at West  Woods School, Hamden.  She said it's all thumbs up for  Lamont.  No Lieberman pollwatchers present.

by Kinnick 2006-08-08 05:15AM | 0 recs
NYTimes this morning

Lieberman's campaign insinuates that losing by only a little is a mandate for him to stay in the race.

He'll lose, but only by a little.

51.24 Lam-
48.76 Lie-

You're a chicken if you don't go to the nearest 100th.

by NCDem 2006-08-08 05:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread
Lamont 53.7%
Loserman 46.3%
by RT 2006-08-08 05:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Lamont 60.1
Lieberman 39.9

Blow out. Lieberman becomes Bush appointee.

by Cleveland John 2006-08-08 05:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Lamont 52
Lieberman 48

Anyone providing a greater degree of detail is just making shit up.  Lieberman's last 48 hours get him this close, but no closer -- he ran out of undecideds to flip.

by Adam B 2006-08-08 05:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Adam,

Will you be publically eating crow here or over at Kos?

by MrExcitement 2006-08-08 06:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

You must've missed that I turned on Lieberman a month ago.

That said, if both Lieberman and Lamont stay in the race, my priorities for the fall may be different than others' here.

by Adam B 2006-08-08 08:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Even during the halcyon days of the last Q-Poll, I was pretty sure Lamont wasn't going to win by more than 10.

So, here it is. I hope this is closer than my bets at poker or on sports.

Lamont 53 / Losermann 47

We're not going to be up that late tonight, especially on the west coast.

Liebermann is going to try and sound gracious in defeat, but he's going to come off sounding like, well, a Sore Losermann.  He'll stay in as an Independent, but he'll tank in the next poll.

I still think there is a VERY real chance he will get the GOP nomination.

by attorney at arms 2006-08-08 05:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Can't remember the last time the good guys won a close won, and this will be no different.  Lieberman pulls through like the bad guys always do, 52-48.

Our one chance is that he is also a democrat and therefore shares our general incompetence, so he might be the one to blow it.

by snaktime 2006-08-08 05:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

I predict

Lamont 51.0%
Lieberman 50.0%

With a 1.0% Margin of Error.

by Dumbo 2006-08-08 05:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Anyone know where Ned will be speaking tonight?  I'm assuming it's either New Haven or Greenwich.

by Karatist Preacher 2006-08-08 06:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Lamont 51, Lieberman 49.  My gut tells me that the last few days' Lieberpalooza will have some effect.

by rfahey22 2006-08-08 06:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Going on the record....

54.6 Lamont
45.2 Lieberman

by laurenm 2006-08-08 06:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

CT-Sen
Lamont 52
Lieberman 48

Lieberman gives a quasi-concession speech talking about respecting the voters' opinions and input, but then turns around and announces he'll run as an independent.

Also, for the other Michiganders out there...

MI-Sen (GOP)
Bouchard 65
Butler 35

DeVos picks Butler as the Lt. Gov. runningmate.

MI-07 (GOP)
Walberg 51
Schwarz 49

MI-07 (Dem)
Strack 40
Ream 25
Renier 20
Campbell 15

MI-08 (GOP)
Rogers 75
Flynn 25

MI-09 (GOP)
Knollenberg 60
Godchaux 40

by Fitzy 2006-08-08 06:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

because it nearly always happens, i'm going to predict heartbreak, and try to steel myself so that it doesn't take me totally by surprise.

as such, i predict an evilman victory:

51.2 lieberclown
48.8 lamont

wow, but i hope hope hope you folks on the ground can get it done.  good work was done by all from every account i've read/heard, but that last weekend of liebermania and the 26,000 extra voters, and everything else, all just makes me so nervous.

good luck gotv!!!

by island empire 2006-08-08 06:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

55-45 Lamont.

Turnout will be good for Lamont's side.  Apathy doesn't motivate.

by Chavez100 2006-08-08 06:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Random comments

Surprisingly  light turnout  at  West Woods School, Hamden, 8:20  am.  I  think that's seen as a  plus for Lamont.

State officials  were  predicting a  record turnout  for  a primary,  maybe up to 40 percent.

by Kinnick 2006-08-08 06:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread
Lamont 51.5
Lieberman 48.5
by Hauser 2006-08-08 06:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread
Lamont - 56.3%
Lieberman - 43.3%
by ChgoSteve 2006-08-08 06:40AM | 0 recs
Extended Rude Snark - we all need a laugh

Lamont 50.3
Lieberman 49.6
write-ins:.1

and the mother of all recount bloodbaths.  I predict Lieberman will fight like hell in a recount bloodbath rather than concede (since if he "wins" he "wins" it all).  He will demand a recount in every precinct and accuse the (generally clean) CT electoral authorities of chicanery.

Then he will too late realize that the public grew to hate him for dragging it on, then give up wearily after his strongest supporters are sick of his whining and after he has, beyond a doubt, poisoned the well of any independent vote.  He will say he learned his lesson about fighting recounts in 2000 (!!??) to "make every vote count" (TM).  Ned will play it cool and, eventually, rise to the top, after court intervention.  

Ned will work part time while in office cleaning coffee pots and running laundry errands for Rep. Maxine Waters, who is the owner in fee simple of Ned's eternal soul after the fairly struck three-way deal between her, him and Mephistopheles.  White lawn jockeys that look like Ned will mysteriously appear in front of houses and on T-shirts in Rep. Waters' LA district and in black neighborhoods in New Haven, Bridgeport and Hartford; Waters will take offense at them and repudiate them. But Lamont will laugh, buy 10,000 of them out of household petty cash and give them out at fundraisers.  Rep. Waters' fundraisers.  Waters will get a lifetime membership in Ned's Greenwich country club.  This one's nearly a guarantee.  Al Sharpton will be offered a membership, but will decline, citing as his reason his desire not to fraternize with the hired help.

Joe goes on to annoy people on Sunday mornings full time rather than just every chance he gets.  Oh yes, he will set up the Liberal Policy Institute, dedicated to undercutting liberal policies, but in a methodical, scholarly and schoolmarmish way.  It will be well funded by the pharmaceutical industry, who will fund its construction in his district.  The District of Columbia.

A poetically just result of Joe's karma in 2000....

by Bruce Godfrey 2006-08-08 07:05AM | 0 recs
My mistake

I meant to say "cleaning BAD coffee pots" for Rep. Maxine Waters.

by Bruce Godfrey 2006-08-08 07:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Put me down for Lamont double-digits, but I think the fact that it is even close is nothing short of amazing.

Friday, February 18, 2005
Lieberman Primary Challenge?
Posted by Tim Tagaris

Believe me, I would love to see it. I am a strong believer that fighting inside primaries is the best way for us to change the face of our party. We do it in presidential races, why not the Senate? Is that body not important enough?

Personally, I believe the fact we don't routinely have contested Democratic primaries on the Senate level is the fault of our national party (more on this later). This is especially true in open seats and ones with a Republican incumbent. However, some Democrats need to be put on notice as well. Unfortunately, this is why it would be so tough to take out Joementum in a contested primary (MoE +/- 3.3%)

Among Democrats:

Approve: 72%
Disapprove: 19%
DK: 9%

His numbers drop only slightly when you expand beyond Democrats only and into Republicans and Independents.

by Bob Brigham 2006-08-08 07:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Lieberman 52.2
Lamont 47.7

Cheaters always win, and I'm always wrong.

by RisingSign 2006-08-08 07:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Ya gotta believe!
Lamont by 8

Lamont 54%
Lieberman 46%

by cmpnwtr 2006-08-08 07:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

I predict a modest landslide, which will be the same as my original prediction I made about 3 weeks ago:

Lamont 55
Lieberman 45

Turnout here will definetely favor Lamont as the motivation is on his side, while apathy is on Lieberman's side.

by KainIIIC 2006-08-08 07:32AM | 0 recs
I feel a Dean-like moment approaching....
Lieberman 63
Lamont 37
by crazymoloch 2006-08-08 07:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Chris,

I agree with your prediction, except the part about the House of Lords.  I'm betting that he is an extremely well-compensated lobbyist for the CT defense industry within the year.  That will allow him to exploit his cozy relationship with the GOP types in Congress and make the big $$$$...

by global yokel 2006-08-08 07:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread
I am going to stick with my prediction of Lamont by 6.  
Lamont-53%
Lieberman-47%
by blueryan 2006-08-08 08:10AM | 0 recs
Lieberman will pull it out

I do think that Lieberman is going to ultimately pull this out by the skin of his proverbial teeth. Regardless, this is still an incredible testament to not the power of the bloggers, but of the vision of the blogoshpere to empower the electorate. Lieberman 50.6, Lamont 49.4.

by mdp4d 2006-08-08 08:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Lieberman will pull it out

If Lieberman does indeed pull this out this won't be a "testament" to anything except that establisment candidates have the power to get the vote out, and candidates that are supported by the netroots can not count on us to translate words into action.

This election was going to be an easy win for us up until the day the first poll showed Lamont winning.  

Now, we only win . . . if we win.  

This election became 100 times more important when Lamont took the lead in the polls.  Now we have to deliver or else face the consequences: all Democrats ignoring the roots of the party and only listening to the consultants.

We are playing for keeps in this election -- go Lamont.

by PageUp 2006-08-08 08:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Lamont 51.7
Lieberman 48.3

And Matt O is right: If Lieberman loses Stephen Colbert will say it's because he didn't come on his show.

by msnook 2006-08-08 08:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Let's do this by the hour:

9 EDT: Lamont 58 - Lieberman 42

11 EDT: Lamont 58 - Lieberman 42

1 am EDT: Lamont 58 - Lieberman 42

3 am EDT: Lamont 58 - Lieberman 42

9 am EDT: Lieberman 58 - Lamont 42

One district where the machines "have had a little trouble" go 100% for Lieberman.  All 35,000 votes are cast for Joe in a district where 2000 people are registered to vote.

by PageUp 2006-08-08 08:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Lamont, 60-40

by Jerome Armstrong 2006-08-08 08:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Is this prediction based on inside info, Jerome?  

by Winston Smith 2006-08-08 08:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

No, in fact up to about a week or so ago, I wouldn't have guessed Lamont. I made this one the night before the Q poll that showed a 14 point lead, and am sticking to it. I also guess there's no way Joe is going to run indy, he either will win or drop out. I'm stuck in JFK's Jet Blue, waiting to go up to NH to lambast the Sierra Club about getting away from their single-issue focus and joining the progressive movement.

by Jerome Armstrong 2006-08-08 08:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Jerome, this is why I think you're a bit of an asshole. You're predicting a huge landslide, but because you aren't blogging, we don't know what is going on in your mind for you to come to a conclusion like this (we can get some idea based on old posts, but...)

Again, I think you should post from Labor Day through the election.

And I hope you are right!

by Bob Brigham 2006-08-08 08:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

haha, this is why you are such an asshole, shooting off your mouth before I get a chance to back up my guess with nothin';)

by Jerome Armstrong 2006-08-08 08:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread
Ned -- 121,745
Holy Joe -- 106,973
by ChetEdModerate 2006-08-08 08:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Recent Democratic senatorial primaries of interest are Tester and Webb, which both went to the netroots supported candidate.  Webb by perhaps a slighly stronger margin than the CW, and Tester by a shocking margin.  Based on those (and ignoring other more discouraging recent results because they weren't Democratic senatorial primaries), I'll give something I consider to be an optimistic prediction.

Lamont 52.7%
Lieberman 47.1%

Turnout: 22.5% higher than normal for a Democratic senate primary in Connecticut during hot weather (presuming the heat wave is still on - I'm in Florida and our weather has been normalish for this time of year.)  That's 22.5% higher - not 22.5 points more.  So if normal turnout is 20%, I'm predicting 24.5%.

by fwiffo 2006-08-08 09:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Lieberman 50.0%
Lamont 50.0%

...followed by recount hell.

by miholo 2006-08-08 09:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

It takes about 2 minutes to do a recount in Connecticut.  The first count, you look at how many clicks were recorded for each candidate.  Recount.. you do it again.  There are no ballots at the polls.  

Only absentee ballots are actually recounted, and those are pretty easy to do to.  There wont be a Floridah 2000 replay.  

by Winston Smith 2006-08-08 09:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Lieberman 53,5
Lamont 46,5

I'm sorry but the machine plus the national media plus the money was too much. This time.

by Populism2008 2006-08-08 09:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Lamont 54.2
Lieberman 45.7

Joe will drop out tomorrow.

by ohiohrcdem 2006-08-08 10:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread
Lamont 58.5%
JoMo     41.5%
by Sitkah 2006-08-08 01:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction Thread

Liebersubparman:45.10

Lamont: 54.90

by EarlErland 2006-08-08 02:14PM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads