40 House Longshots

These are races that Chris Bowers did not include.  I can give at least some reason for hope for these races.  If this turns out to be another 1974 or 1994, Democrats will actually win some of these seats as ridiculous as it may sound now.  So here they are, the Not Ready For Prime Time Players:

NH-1   Bradley   Bush got only 50.7% here but Bradley got 63%. Several strong candidates are running for the Democrats but this is a primary situation.  NH-1 has made some of the national lists.

NJ-7   Garrett  Scott Garrett is a real wingnut.  He ran 1 pt. behind Bush at 58%, down from 60% when this was an open seat in 2002.  This is a Republican seat but a moderate seat with most of the district located in the affluent northern part of Bergen County.  The Club For Growth ran off the long-term moderate Republican Marge Roukema by running two ferocious primary challenges.  Garrett has the most extreme voting record in the tri-state area and if the election is about Garrett he should be gone.

NY-26  Reynolds  Lots of cash but little attention.  Reynolds got 56% in 2004 just 1% above Bush.  As head of the RCCC, Reynolds will apparently have other things on his mind.

MI-7   Open   Joe Schwarz's primary loss to the CFG candidate gives democrats a shot in a 54% Bush district.  The primary split was 53-47, giving Dems lots of encouragement.

MI-9   Knollenberg  Nancy Skinner trails by 4 ion a 50-50 district.

MI-9   McCotter 52% Bush.  McCotter got 57%, the weakest showing among Michigan Republicans.  Talk show host Tony Trupiano has not been able to turn this story into much cash for the Democrats, however.

MI-8  Rogers 53% Bush but Rogers scored 61%.  In this year, the district probably leans Democratic.

WA-5    McMorris  Frosh Republican in a Democratic year running against a spirited challenger in PhD rancher Peter Goldmark.  This is Tom Foley's old district so a comeback would be sweet indeed for Washington state Democrats.

CA-26   Dreier  Has $3 million warchest vs. zip for his opponent.  Had the money in the same match last time and held on for a 53.6% win, 1.5% below Bush.  In a hurricane year, Democratic winds blow Dreier down.

CA-4   Doolittle  Scandal.  Charlie Brown's supporters have made the case already.

CA-41   Lewis   Scandal!!  If anyone deserves to be shipped home, it is Lewis.  The man was supposed to supervise Duke Cunningham but instead is mired in the same scandal with the same contractors.  Still, Lewis got 83% in 2004 in a 65% district.  Pray for an indictment?

FL-10   Young  Been there for 36 years but this is a 51-49 district.  If it truly is time for a change, Young is an obvious symbol.  Personally cleaner than a hounds tooth but Young was the Dukester's sub-committee chair.  Maybe in his 70s the venerable Young is falling asleep at the wheel.

WV-2   Capito  Ran at 57%, just half a point ahead of Bush so she doesn't appear to run ahead of the tide.  Daughter of legendary former Governor (for both parties in separate terms) and long-recovering alcoholic Arch Moore.  Arch was an entertaining rascal who told stories on the Jack Paar show.  His daughter, while solid, appears more bland (but who isn't).

ARK-3  Boozman  At 59%, John Boozman ran 3% behind Bush in his district.  Nobody's watching, either.  That would make a Woody Anderson upset possible but unlikely.  The top of the Republican ticket is struggling in Arkansas as well.

MI-6  Upton  Only if you like the district which Bush carried with 52.8%.  Upton cruised with 65%.

MN-2  Kline   Kline got 56.4%, 2.5% ahead of Bush.  FBI truth teller Colleen Rowley is running here (and got original bad marks but seems to be improving).

MN-3  Ramstad  51% Bush but Ramstad has positioned himself as a moderate.  Several candidates are listed but QWendy Wilde is the favorite.

VA-10   Wolf  Judy Feder is running a real campaign in a 55% Bush district.  Maybe macaca-gate will bring down some other Republicans.

NY-3   King   Making some lists because Bush drew just 51.7% here.  KIng ran away with it garnering 63%.  This is, admittedly, a terrible year for Republicans and King, as the committee chair for Homeland Security, failed to protect local interests.  Dave Mejias is a strong candidate but a late entrant.

NY-13   Fossella  Bush drew 54.6% and Fossella 59% in this NY City district based largely on Staten Island.  In a district chock-a-block with NYC police and fire personnel, Bush has ignored his promises repeatedly and so had Mayor Bloomberg.  Stephen Harrison is making little impact here.  Best chance is to frame it as an up-or-down vote on Bush.

PA-15   Dent  Bush got 49.7% here and freshman Republican Charlie Dent bettered him with 58.6%.  The Lehigh Valley has seen its factories shut down (Bethlehem Steel) and name-brand companies be taken over by foreigners (Mack Truck).  Charles Dertinger needed to go the write-in route to qualify but he's on the ballot and maybe his Rocky story will appeal.

PA-4   Hart  Melissa outran Bush 63.1-54.5 but lots of area ads for Democrats may spill over and help Jason Altmire.

NJ-2   LoBiondo  Kerry got 49% here but all the interest groups have lined up behind Republican congressman Frank LoBiondo.  Maybe that's because LoBiondo polled a sturdy 65%.  Viola Thomas Hughes has a promising district but a long climb is needed to pull even with LoBiondo.

VA-5  Goode  Virgil Goode polled 63.7% last time in a district George Bush took with 55.9%.  Al Weed is making a repeat run and is touring energetically.

Neb-1  Fortenberry  The GOP frosh polled 54.9% in an open seat race and faces Lt-Gov Maxine Moul.  OTOH, Bush drew 62.9% here.  It is Nebraska.  Moul will benefit from having Ben Nelson heading the Democratic ticket.

CO-6   Tancredo  Tom Tancredo may have national dreams stirring in his head but he polled just 59.5% last time and is running into a Democratic buzzsaw in Bill Winter.

KS-2   Ryun  Ex-miler Jim was held to 56%, three points behind Bush in this district.  Kansas Republicans are splintering with prominent moderates fleeing to the Democrats.  Kathleen Sebellius is a strong favorite to repeat as Governor and GOP anti-evolution candidates are finding open opposition not only from Democrats but from Republicans sworn to defeat them.  Nancy Boyda makes a repeat run with lower expectations but a great environment (at least for a Kansas Democrat).

IL-11  Weller  Weller (58.7%) ran 5 points ahead of Bush (53.7%) but is becoming the issue.  His wife is the daughter of an honest-to-God evil dictator and an official in a foreign political party.  Strip away the bonus points and John avich has a chance to spring the upset.

OH-16   Regula  Old Ralph is in a close district (53.8% Bush) facing a disaster at the head of his ticket (Blackwell down by 25 points).  He ran lousy in the primary, too.  Maybe Thomas Shaw can show him into retirement (he's in his 80s, isn't he).  Uh, the downside, and it is considerable, is that Ralph got 66.6% against Jeff Seeman in 2004.

OH-12   Tiberi  OK. 51.4% Bush.  Tiberi shows no signs of aging and got a respectable 62% in 2004.  Can Robert Shamansky convert the opportunity?

PA-3   English  53.1% Bush but 60% English.  Steven Porter tries a re-match under more favorable terms and should benefit from the environment.  Will it be enough?

FL-13  Open  Katherine Harris got 55% here.  Twice.  Despite ample funding and universal name recognition.  Now Katharine has brough her, ahem, "skills" to the state-wide level and a flock of candidates from each side are aiming for this seat.

GA-11  Gingrey  Phil got only 57% the last time but the district has been redrawn for his benefit.  The redrawn lines went 73% for Bush.  Texas Republicans ran well behind Bush in redrawn areas but that may not be enough for Patrick Pillion to pull the upset.  Pillion, btw, is a look-alike for Norm, the pudgy accountamt on Cheers.  If he's as funny, he might draw attention.

FL-7   Mica  Ran unopposed ina 56.8% Bush district in 2004.  This is a textbook case for an upset.  Soft district (at least semi-soft).  No attention.  Incumbent with dormant campaign skills.  Maybe John Chagnon can pull the upset.  PS- Other than the formula, nothing says Chagnon will, in fact, take down Mica.

TX-2   Ted Poe got 55% last time in one of the new districts.  Bush got 63%. Gary Binderim has the slot for the Democrats.

Net dreams:  Here are five longshots that the netroots will be rooting for.

IN-6   Barry Welsh  Thanks for your communication, spirit, and inspiring grass roots and net roots campaign.  This is a tough district and Mike Pence is a national power.  That said, if good wishes count, Barry has a bushel basket full.

TX-21   John Courage got early seed money and has proceeded to haunt windbag Lamar Smith.  Another bad district but Smith is an awful, if rich, candidate.

WI-5   Bryan Kennedy  Nobody needs the loss more than Jim Sensenbrenner.  He's prepared for disappointment, too.  The substantial family fortune is in kleenex stock (grandpa invented kotex).

AK-At Large   Don Young reigns as Transportation Committee chair despite living in a state with few roads.  That's why he extorts bridges to nowhere and has this plan to link Juneau by road with the lower 48.  One inefficient crook has already been sent packing from Alaska politics (Frank Murkowski).  Maybe Young will join the list as Diane Benson sends the old spendthrift into a belated retirement.

TX-6   David Harris  Harris has connected with the nets.  More important, Joe Barton is an example of all that's wrong with congress.  Chair of the Energy and Commerce committe, Barton has slaved faitfully for big oil and the interests of the oil bidness.  Want $5 gas: Vote for Barton.

NC-8 should be added. Polls show this is a competitive race (see comment below). The NC Democratic party is doing a good job of focusing on trade issues and that bites especially hard here. Republican Robin Hayes was the key vote opn passing CAFTA after vowing publicly to vote against it. Textile execs pushed the bill. Textile workers can push their own agenda by voting out Hayes.

Tags: 2006 elections, House, longshots (all tags)



Judy Feder - VA-10

I had no idea Judy Feder was running for Congress.  She is great.  I know her from my DC days and she was dean of my graduate program after I had finished.  Thanks for this list.

by John Mills 2006-08-29 12:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Judy Feder - VA-10

VA-10 has a bit too much Shenandoah for Feder, and she really pissed off a lot of people by going all partisan and running for office, but hopefully she knows something that we don't.  Good luck to her!

by freedc 2006-08-30 08:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Judy Feder - VA-10

I know this is a tough race she probably won't win but I am rooting for her.  She would be a good addition to Congress.

by John Mills 2006-08-30 08:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Judy Feder - VA-10

She's running a good campaign and has raised a lot of money but unfortunately, Wolf is entrenched and the district is gerrymandered. The loudoun and fairfax parts have been trending democratic but that might not be enough to offset the rural parts.

by FairfaxDem11 2006-08-30 09:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Judy Feder - VA-10

Yeah I agree, in VA-10 we have serious challenges to overcome with the district makeup. Also the large number of Fed workers, who Wolf has actually done a decent job of standing up for (including against Bush on pay issues), are comfortable with him. Feder's fundraising has been quite impressive though.

by bjschmid 2006-08-30 11:19AM | 0 recs

'MI-9   Knollenberg  Nancy Skinner trails by 4 in a 50-50 district.'

Plus Joe Knollenberg is getting a 35% approval rating. Those are W numbers!

by JordanLFW 2006-08-29 01:08PM | 0 recs
Re: MI-09

This always has always had the potential to be a really tight race.  The one concern I have is Knollenberg did better than I thought he would in the primary.  People still like this guy.  He is way too conservative for the district, yet many moderates still vote for him.

If Skinner can get her name ID up and control the dialogue in October, she has a chance.  

by Eric11 2006-08-29 05:54PM | 0 recs
Re: MI-09

I agree.  Michigan as a whole is underrated.  Way underrated.  The major reason for this seems to be money but it is a lot easier to raise money than to change the dynamics of a district a la the DeLay Texas redistrict.  I've been touting Michigan as a good place to surprise but few people outside the state seem to agree.  Fortunately, Michigan Democrats are psyched.

by David Kowalski 2006-08-29 06:05PM | 0 recs
Re: MI-09

I agree with this sentiment.

I think up here in the hinterlands (north of the money line Highway M46), we have been given weak canidates, who have no idea what to do in a modern campaign.

So therefore, they raise no money, therefore Dave Camp in Mi4 can run with little opposition.  Sorry, Huck.

I have been focusing on the state races, and county too.  We have to lay the ground work up here to foster a Democrat environment.

by chanupi 2006-08-30 06:26AM | 0 recs
Re: MI-09

I used to live in Michigan. And Knollenberg's district is RIPE for change. The local Dems are feeling it even if the race isn't nationalized yet. Skinner's got a chance, hell yes.

by Rosi in NJ 2006-08-30 07:04AM | 0 recs
And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

How many time do I have to say it.  I'm gonna keep sayin it.  Shuster's weak, he's getting no support from Santorum or Eichelburger here and that's what the repugs are talking about.  Tony Barr is quietly winning this election.  

in Last election's GOP primary Shuster was propped up by Jubelirer and now BackRoom Bob has gone bye bye, leaving Billy to feud with Eichelberger and be ignored by Santorum.  

The Republicans are walking away from Shuster and Tony Barr is stepping up, Dems here are energized for the first time in a Century.

We've got an Ad about it hit YouTube.com and we are rolling up momentum.  Don't count us out, we can win the PA-09th!!!!!

by DvilleDem 2006-08-29 01:39PM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

Sorry Dville but we are not beating an incumbent in a district where Bush pulled 67%!

by BENAWU 2006-08-30 12:14AM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

Bill Shuster, ain't Bush.  I'm just saying a lot of you are going to owe me an apology!

by DvilleDem 2006-08-30 01:29AM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

I mean, really, I don't expect top tier competitive status, but take us off the DOA list.

by DvilleDem 2006-08-30 01:43AM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

y'know D'ville you are always going to struggle to get the 9th on the radar because it is the PA district with the highest Bush vote in 04 (67%).

But not for lack of trying :)

almost a pity that the 6th, 7th, 8th, 10th are competitive they squeeze out the 9th.

Pity Barr wasn't running 12 months ago.

Best of luck nonetheless.

by BENAWU 2006-08-30 06:50AM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

Oops wasn't my intent to troll rate anyone, slip of the mouse, My apologies,  You're right about the website, a major overhaul is due up, today (8/30)in fact. as is the first look at our TV ad.

And Yea 67% for Bush...yikes, I never said this was gonna be easy

but, this is also the district who got rid of 35 year State Senator Bob Jubelirer, Anti-incumbant sentiment is sky-high,. . . No higher than that.  The Local GOP is in the middle of a power struggle and Shuster seems to be on the losing side.

At fairs and parades I see Swann stickers and such, Santorum, Eichelberger, and all the other State house candidates, No Shuster para..er paraphen...er, ah... No Shuster stuff at all, anywhere, it's like he's not running.

When they hear the name Shuster, Republicans take our flyers and pat Tony on the back. (it used to creep me out and worry me but now I'm used to it)

Voters in the Northwest (of Altoona) are pissed cause they used to be under Jack Murtha, and to some extent the South and Southwest but there are a couple of Counties down there, with an actual Dem majority, to the east, Shuster has ignored them utterly and Altoona is pissed over how he beat Mike DelGrosso (The spy scandal)in the GOP primary and how he got his seat in the first place.

On the phones we hear "Oh God, anybody but Shuster" from D's and R's alike.

Dems are energized nationally and we're prety up even here.  I think that if we had started in January and got fundraising rolling, we'd be one of the second tier races, the reason we wouldn't be a top teir race is that Shuster himself is such a mediocrity that the DCCC probably wouldn't give us priority status. and honestly, this group of Dems hasn't produced much.

That said, We're winning, right here, right now and I will shout it from the rooftops till my typing fingers fall off.

by DvilleDem 2006-08-30 08:01AM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

Thanks.  Good luck in your race.  

by John Mills 2006-08-30 08:21AM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

That's a good assessment of the 9th, DvillDem.

I know Gov Rendell was up in Franklin Co at a Dem county party breakfast, but he asked that at least 100 people be there. Normally that's a tall order, but the Franklin county Dems got almost double that number. I think it shows the energy level there.

I hope Barr is going to ask Jack Murtha to do some campaigning for him. Murtha's about as safe an incumbent as there is and as DvillDem said, part of the 9th is his old district. I wouldn't even be surprised if Murtha didn't help Barr with some campaign money since there really aren't any other potential Dem pick ups in the west save maybe Altmire.

Anyway, whenever I read one of DvillDem's posts
I'm always reminded of the tune from "Damn Yankees", "Heart". :)

by phillydem 2006-08-30 11:41AM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

for Shuster to lose he would have to be caught in bed with a Donkey and a minsters daughter that is how red that district is. I've run a campaign there. There is a republicans State Senator in that district who was caught doing half that and he still got reelected twice

by orin76 2006-08-30 01:16PM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

You know, you never know. Who gave Tim Holden much chance against Gekas in 2002 in the redrawn 17th?
The 17th is probably at least as conservative as the 9th. And some of the same dynamics are in play, a redrawn district that acquired part of a solid Dem base, an incumbent who's bascially never had competition and an anti-incumbent electorate.

There's no doubt it's a long shot, but it's not an impossible shot like say the 5th or 19th.

by phillydem 2006-08-30 01:37PM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

I did actually Holden is a conservative democrat running in a conservative district. People actually had Holden and Bush signs on the Same lawn

by orin76 2006-08-30 01:41PM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

you have never lived in the 9th or 19th district or run a campagin there during the Kerry campaign people were trying to run be off the road because i had a kerry sticker on my car

by orin76 2006-08-30 01:43PM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

no actually Avillo has a better chance since he actally has money

by orin76 2006-08-30 01:52PM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

no avillo has a better chance in the 19th because he actually has over 100k

by orin76 2006-08-30 01:53PM | 0 recs
Glad to see the VA-05 on the list

This district has been polled twice, once by Zogby, once by SUSA.

The SUSA poll was awful for a variety of reasons which are not the point of this comment (but I'll go into them if anyone cares). The Zogby poll showed Virgil under 50. If Al can raise some more money, this race is competitive.

by msnook 2006-08-29 04:36PM | 0 recs
IN-6 Poll

Barry's campaign will be running a poll from Sept-5 to Sept-7.  A random sample of 800+ registered voters has been made. The goal is to make contact with 384 voters to create a margin of error of +- 5%.  I think that the script is going to ask the polled which of 6 issues (the debate topics agreed to by Pence and Barry) concerns then most.  

I can't remember the topics, but Pence choose some real "bombs" like Iran, while Barry choose health, and other social issues.

by ManfromMiddletown 2006-08-29 04:36PM | 0 recs
NC-08 didn't make Chris's list yet, so you should included it here. Why?
  • Polling has the race at 46-40, even with a huge difference in name recognition (Hayes 90%+, Kissell 30%-)
  • Democrats lead registration in the distict - 53% Dem
  • The level of discontent in NC-08 is high. Counties within NC-08 rank #1, #2, #6, and #9 in unemployment in NC out of 100 counties.  Residents know its time for a change.
by Bear83 2006-08-29 07:41PM | 0 recs
Re: NC-08

I've considered this a longshot for a while.  I'll add it.  I didn't know it was this close.

Hayes' biggest advantage should be his biggest disadvantage.  A little cute but his middle name is Cannon as in Cannon Mills as in the people who moved the jobs out (after a name change via a merger).  No wonder Hayes was available to texttile execs on the floor of the House while changing his vote on CAFTA: family business came ahead of his constituents.

PS- One of my grad school professors won the Pulitzer Prize while I was taking his course.  The man's secret was his middle name:  Dupont.  That opened the records of 200 years of Dupont history and 25 years of General Motors records as well.  Hayes hjas trhe money.  He also, however, has the baggage.

by David Kowalski 2006-08-29 07:59PM | 0 recs
Re: NC-08

NC-8 should be added indeed, but to Red to Blue!

Some of those targeted races wish they were doing as well as Kissell.

The party just keeps giving Kissell lemons, and he just keeps making lemonade.

by RANT 2006-08-30 06:37AM | 0 recs

With some money this could be won.  It is a poor district so the money has to come from outside.

Kissell is a little low key, but he is a great guy and certainly our kind of progressive.

It is a shame that this opportunity is being missed.

by NCJim 2006-08-30 08:55AM | 0 recs
by NCJim 2006-08-30 08:57AM | 0 recs
Re: NC-08

Actually it's 46% - 42%.    

Within the margin of error it's a statistical dead heat.

by working for change 2006-08-30 10:01AM | 0 recs
Great diary

Thanks for "getting down into the weeds" of these oft-overlooked races.

by DavidNYC 2006-08-29 07:44PM | 0 recs

Dennis Spivack is one of the most overlooked candidates this cycle. Delaware is one of the most democratic states in the country. Here in DE we're "Stormin' the Castle."

by Joshua Sperati 2006-08-29 09:32PM | 0 recs


Delaware is true blue since Mr. Bush starting f'ing up the country  with his rubber stamp flunky nit-wit Michael Castle.

The money difference is no big deal in DE since we don't have a large media market.  

This is going to come down to the ground game, guts and determination.

by delawareliberal 2006-08-30 05:47AM | 0 recs

Castle is less than attractive to the hard core wing-nuts (with his stem cell jihad).

So if Spivack can get the ticket splitting Dems to wake up, he is alive.

The Delaware race should be added to this longshots list.  

by delawareliberal 2006-08-30 05:52AM | 0 recs

Yeah, no large media market except for the fact that 70% of the population (New Castle County) is in the Philadelphia market!

by adamterando 2006-08-30 06:30AM | 0 recs
55-60% of DE gets their information from the Wilmington News Journal and the DE State News.
Castle is going to carpet bomb the state with direct mail again. For example in 2004 I didn't see Castle, on TV once except standing next to Bush, on PA local news. I did however in my house of 5 registered Democrats see 3 or 4 Castle direct mail pieces. Being in the Philly media Market I saw lots of ads but none from Mike Castle.
by Joshua Sperati 2006-08-30 07:51AM | 0 recs
This is why our Grassroots campaign is going to "Strom the Castle in November shock DE and be one of many Republican incumbents to go down. http://www.spivackforcongress.org/html/o n_the_issues___.html
Check us out.
by Joshua Sperati 2006-08-30 07:54AM | 0 recs
Re: 40 House Longshots

I think OH-12 deserves a look by the blogosphere and not just because I have a buddy working on the campaign.  Tiberi's approval ratings are even in the district.   The district is 36% Democrat, 38%
Republican, 27% independent.  Shamansky is suffering from some serious name recognition issues, but does well when voters find out more about him.  The campaign's polling (done by the Mellman Group) shows Tiberi below 50% and losing when bios are read for both men.  This is one of those districts that could go Dem as part of a larger wave, but it could be more competative with some more blogger attention.

Oh yeah and Melissa Hart is awful.  She is Santorum in female form.

by juls 2006-08-29 09:48PM | 0 recs
AK-AL Diane Benson

Thank you for including Diane Benson on your list.

I want to put in a plug for Diane Benson.  http://bensonforcongress.com  She is an active participant in bringing our troops home from the war  (http://vfpnationalconvention.org/?page_i d=24).  She works on veterans issues.  She is a real progressive  and outspoken on many of the netroots issues.  Please contribute.  A little money can go a long way in a small state such as Alaska.  http://www.actblue.com/directory/search? q=federal-house&state=AK

by marmot 2006-08-29 09:49PM | 0 recs
Re: AK-AL Diane Benson

well, I wish Benson the best against Young.
In the primary, I was kind of rooting for that guy
whose web site said he was a "political prisoner" in a "fascist state."


by Christopher Walker 2006-08-30 02:55AM | 0 recs
Excellent diary

One small correction: Scott Garrett represents NJ-05

NJ-07 is held by Mike Ferguson, facing netroots-backed Democrat Linda Stender. That race will be fairly competitive.

by OfficeOfLife 2006-08-29 10:14PM | 0 recs
You put MI 09 up twice.

The race with McCotter and Trupiano is MI 11.  And yeah, we need more support in Michigan.  MI 8, 9, and 11 are all great for potential pickups.

by djtyg 2006-08-29 10:18PM | 0 recs
Re: 40 House Longshots

I wonder what sort of dramatic move Rove will come up with to alter the political dynamic between now and November?  Bombing the snot out of Iran is the obvious one, but it won't be surprising to see some other iniatives that are intended to stir up nationalist sentiment.   As much as I appreciate all the analysis and number-crunching that happens here at MYDD, it seems that the reality we are dealing with at the moment could be transformed pretty quickly by a momentous event of some sort...

by global yokel 2006-08-29 10:45PM | 0 recs
Re: 40 House Longshots

... uh, a devestating hurricane and the Bush regime is competent this time?

He better time his October surprise to the T ... the bottled water bomb bounce seemed to run out of steam very quickly compared to some previous Chicken Little efforts of the Bush regime.

by BruceMcF 2006-08-30 01:31AM | 0 recs
If CA-4 and CA-41 Are on the List...

Then what about CA-40 and CA-46?

I know these are very much longshots, since all California seats are gerrymandered. However I think that if any seat(s) change hands in Southern California, then these two are the best chances other than the already mentioned CA-26.

In CA-40, Florice Hoffman is running against Rethug incmbent Ed Royce... I know, I know, you haven't heard of him... Well, you probably haven't because HE DOESN'T DO ANYTHING FOR NORTH ORANGE COUNTY. For instance when Cal State University, Fullerton, requested federal funds for new science programs, they went to their congressman for help. He said he'd help... So HE CALLED REP. LORETTA SANCHEZ'S OFFICE, the one and only Orange County Democrat, and asked that she add this to the appropiations bill. ROYCE VOTED AGAINST THIS, BUT STILL CLAIMS CREDIT FOR IT!

In CA-46, Rethug incumbent Dana Rohrabacher epitomizes the current culture of corruption. For one, he boasts of BEING BEST FRIENDS WITH JACK ABRAMOFF!!!! Of course, he also ATE FOR FREE AT SIGNATURES. HE VOTED FOR EACH AND EVERY PIECE OF ABRAMOFF-SUPPORTED LEGISLATION. Running against Abramoff lackey Rohrabacher is Jim Brandt, a retired Marine and successful businessman who actually wants to serve our communities, and refuses to sell himself to the highest bidder.

Also what may help in these Congressional races are numerous highly competitive local races... And ONE HUGE STATE RACE- That is, the competitive 34th State Senate Seat, where Democrat Lou Correa should be getting plenty of help from the state party.

by atdleft 2006-08-29 10:53PM | 0 recs
Re: California long shots .

Thanks for the tip on that state senate race. It's not on my radar. Any details to share?

My favorite California long shot is the Congressional campaign of John Rinaldi in CA-52.
Very high quality Democrat, running against a rich, connected, evil Republican (Duncan Hunter).

Check out Rinaldi at


and show him some love at:

http://www.actblue.com/page/2006fund?ref code=myddrinaldi

You'll find him easily - his picture's right above Nick Lampson.

by Christopher Walker 2006-08-30 03:05AM | 0 recs
Re: California long shots .

My California longshot is CA-45's David Roth against Mary Bono. He's got a hot team including Joe Trippi. Can't say how he's doing fundraising-wise, but I'd say he's got a whole helluva lot going for him than Cynthia Matthews in CA-26 against Dreier. She isn't doing nearly as well as she did last run against Dreier. He's going to cream her.

by buffalo girl 2006-08-30 07:23AM | 0 recs
FL-7, FL-24

FL-7 is tough. My sister is an executive with a large drug and alcohol rehab non-profit and deals with John Mica all the time. He may not be a dynamic campaigner but he is in constant contact with a range of interests of his district. He's got a 100% ACU rating so he's not my cup of tea but he's not a crook like so many new school Republicans.

FL-24 is a possible long shot. Rep. Tom Feeney IS a crook and might face Clint Curtis. Curtis will openly call Feeney a crook and liar every day on the campaign trail so who knows what kind of craziness unfolds. Curtis has already filed a sworn affidavit saying Feeney asked Curtis to rig FL elections in 2000. Feeney is a big member of the Republican Study Committee, DeLay's Mini-Me, and enjoyed a nice golf trip with Bob Ney courtesy of Jack Abramoff. Some dirt may possibly surface to take Feeney down. If that should happen Dems can take advantage with a very poorly funded Curtis. Beats '04 when Feeney ran unopposed.

Boo creepy Feeney. Hooray 50-state strategy!

by joejoejoe 2006-08-29 10:58PM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

The 9th is actually interesting. DvillDem is right
that's there's plenty of "not Shuster" sentiment in the district. The big reason for this, IMHO, is that Shuster fils "inherited" the seat from his dad, Bud, he didn't earn the job. That just doesn't sit well with people around that part of the state.

While there hasn't been a credible Dem challenger in this district for awhile, Shuster did get a primary challenge last cycle. It was a hotly contested race and Shuster did not blow his opponent away as one would have expected given his advantages.

This is another odd race in PA, much like the 10th, where it is almost completely a referendum on the incumbent. Now a national Dem tide and the re-energized Dems in the west central could take this district, but realistically it's a long shot.

by phillydem 2006-08-29 11:37PM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

That's all I'm saying...we're not DOA, not by a damn sight

by DvilleDem 2006-08-30 06:00AM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

DvilleDem - Just a thought but if you are seeking support for your candidate it probably isn't a good idea to troll rate another person's comment in support of a candidate they know.  I am not sure what was so objectionable about my comment about Judy Feder.  I might not have said it artfully but I know Judy, like her and was excited to see she is running for Congress.

BTW - I have been troll rated before and not said anything but it is usually for something that is clearly controversial.  This one didn't really seem to fit that bill.

by John Mills 2006-08-30 06:16AM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

Centre county was intentionally cut out of the district to keep Scott Conklin from Challenging Shuster again who he almost beat

by orin76 2006-08-30 01:18PM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

The biggest problem is that district is the issue of Abortion the last candidate to run there said he was being attacked by Democrats on the issues it's very pro-life

by orin76 2006-08-30 01:21PM | 0 recs
Re: 40 House Longshots

I'm glad you mentioned NE-1.

Maxine Moul is a great candidate and is running a very good campaign.

Scott Kleeb in NE-3 is also a great candidate and is running a great campaign.

I'm afraid I don't know enough about what is going on in NE-2. Esch is a great candidate, also.

What I know of NE-1 and NE-3 leads me to believe that these races should not be ignored.

What the Dems are doing in Nebraska right now is unprecedented. Don't write any of us off.

Come November you'll see what I mean.


by phatass 2006-08-29 11:39PM | 0 recs
Re: PA-04 and 15

Both these districts, by dint of majority Dem registration should be competitive, but Dems just have not been able to attract top tier candidates.

Altmire is ok and his politics are a good fit for this district, but he has no money after winning the Dem primary against Georgia Berner, who would have been able to self-finance against Hart. I grew up in the 4th so there's nothing I'd like to see better than Altmire win, but unless he raises some bucks and fast, he'll be swamped. IMHO, Dems keep making a mistake by choosing candidates that are outside the heart of this district, Beaver and Lawrence counties.

The 15th is another seat where Dems just can't interest anyone in running. I give Dertinger credit for waging and winning a write-in campaign at the last minute, but Dent is pretty popular
in the 15th after having served as a moderate state senator before being elected to Congress.

If these seats flip, there really will have been a Dem tsunami.

by phillydem 2006-08-29 11:46PM | 0 recs
Re: PA-04 needs cash

You'll find a donation box for Altmire on an all-Pennsylvania slate at:

http://www.actblue.com/page/pavotethemou t?refcode=myddaltmire

by Christopher Walker 2006-08-30 03:10AM | 0 recs
Re: PA-04 needs cash

Altmire has slipped under the radar a bit. After the recent NY 20 poll demonstrated that the huge number of house pickups (4 or 5) isn't happening there.

But PA is looking ripe with 4 competitive races (6,7,8,10) and 2 potentials (4,15).  Interesting times indeed.

by BENAWU 2006-08-30 05:40AM | 0 recs
Re: One advantage for Altmire

Altmire has one very good thing going for him that Hart can never duplicate. He was a local HS football star and hardly anything is bigger in this district than HS football.

Altmire ought to start showing up at selected games on Friday nights and Saturday afternoons and campaign wearing his letterman's jacket. There are some big crowds for the major rivalry games like Aliquippa-Ambridge, Hopewell-Blackhawk, Monaca-Rochester and so on, just in Beaver County alone. I'm sure he'd win himself some votes.

by phillydem 2006-08-30 11:49AM | 0 recs
Re: One advantage for Altmire

phillydem you are absolutely right about the football.  I grew up in the district too.  The ultimate would be a mention on the Fedko Zone if he was out stumping the stadiums.

by juls 2006-08-30 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: One advantage for Altmire

Word on the Beaver Falls alumni (I'm one) board
is that Beaver Falls-New Brighton is one of four games KDKA TV is going to cover/report from on Friday night. There's a perfect opportunity for Jason.

(BTW, if you still follow WPIAL sports, check out the new pasportsboard.)

by phillydem 2006-08-30 01:33PM | 0 recs
Re: One advantage for Altmire

Pine-Richland grad myself.  Hart was our state Senator prior to winning her house seat.  That makes 16 years of Hart. ugh.

by juls 2006-08-30 02:35PM | 0 recs
Re: PA-15

You can forget about Dertinger winning. His campaign is virtually non-existent. The Morning Call recently had a lengthy article on Dent (he was spouting nonsense about immigration), and reported that it could not get in touch with Dertinger to get a statement about his position. I wrote to Dertinger months ago saying I'd like to volunteer, but wanted to know more about his postion on Iraq. Never heard back from him. He's raised a total of about $8,000 as of a few weeks ago. I've read several local bloggers who are eager to dump Dent, but have nothing good to say about Dertinger.

In short: Dertinger's campaign is a bad joke. A huge shame, because Dent ought to be vulnerable for a variety of reasons.

by smintheus 2006-08-30 10:38AM | 0 recs
Re: PA-15
Still willing to volunteer?
by orin76 2006-08-30 01:44PM | 0 recs
Re: PA-15

My district is 187, where I'm volunteering for Archie Follweiller. It's a very red district, but I think Archie has a real chance this year.

by smintheus 2006-08-30 05:20PM | 0 recs
Re: PA-15

oh ok figured i'd ask

by orin76 2006-08-30 05:45PM | 0 recs
Re: PA-15

yeah I know archie

by orin76 2006-08-30 05:46PM | 0 recs
Re: PA-04 and 15

Some good insights on these races, Phillydem. Here in PA-15, Charles Dertinger faces an uphill fight, as you say. But I wouldn't write him off too quickly. He's lined up some key labor endorsements, including the AFL-CIO, the IBEW, and the Building & Construction Trades Council. (In fact, he's the only non-incumbent in PA to gain the B&C Trades Council nod.) Plus, Dertinger will benefit from the growing Democratic Party GOTV operations in both Lehigh and Northampton Counties.

And Charlie Dent a moderate? That may have been his reputation before heading to DC. But in the past two years he's been a reliable vote for the Bush/Cheney/DeLay agenda. And I think many here in Valley get that.

by LehighValleyProgressive 2006-08-30 08:01PM | 0 recs
Re: 40 House Longshots

Harper's has two articles up this week on Jeb Bradley - that could put a big dent in his lead:

http://harpers.org/sb-jeb-bradley-invest ed-

I've noticed that there's also an article in today's Boston Globe about the Harper's article.  Maybe this will get some attention up there in the 1st district.  (He talks about voting against the Energy bill, but he voted for all the provisions - IOW they didn't need his vote to win - so he can look like someone he is not)  Shame on Bradley!!!

Maybe with enough attention focused on his record - the dems could pull this off. (Lamont was a longshot, too)

I'm supporting Jim Craig in that race -  as Minority Leader in the House, he has the best chance of beating Bradley.

by Astraea 2006-08-30 03:00AM | 0 recs
Re: 40 House Longshots

Here's the article from today's Boston Globe:
Magazine probes votes, holdings of N.H.'s Bradley

WASHINGTON -- US Representative Jeb Bradley, Republican of New Hampshire, voted to allow oil drilling in the Great Lakes and opposed several energy-related environmental conservation bills while holding nearly $1 million in oil and energy company shares, according to a Harper's report posted on the magazine's website Monday.

The report set off a spark in this fall's New Hampshire House race, where several Democratic contenders are vying to unseat Bradley, a two-term incumbent considered one of the more liberal Republicans in Congress and who rarely faces negative press.

According to the report, Bradley also voted against $15.5 million in energy conservation funding, voted against stricter penalties for industry price gouging, opposed a measure intended to curb no-bid government contracts for Iraqi oil operations while holding Halliburton stock, and supported several pharmaceutical-friendly bills while holding more than $300,000 of drug company shares.

by Astraea 2006-08-30 03:10AM | 0 recs

We can win in NY-23; this is the most misunderstood district around.

The registration numbers look GOP, and McHugh has won with big numbers. But, if you look closer, it's a "purple" district, not a red. Gore+half-Green was over 50% in the district, Bush won the district in '04 with almost exactly his national percentage, federal Dems, even with McHugh running essentially unopposed, have averaged about 49% of the vote the last 4 cycles, even more if you go back another cycle to include Clinton's solid win. The registration numbers are an historical artifact; this is a purple district in federal races (it's a bit more red when it comes to state and local stuff).

The reason McHugh looks good every year is because all of the money was gerrymandered out of the district, so it's barren ground for a challenger. So ... no one tries. But Bob Johnson has been running straight for two years, he's already raised more than almost any challenger, he has a big fundraiser coming up with Viggo Mortensen, and he's running hard now, making calls and holding house parties.

And the state GOP is in absolute meltdown in NY, while the Democrats are energized by the Spitzer campaign. The GOTV difference in the two parties will be massive.

Bob has really thrown himself into the netroots, also, posting diaries here and at dKos. And McHugh-lander is, frankly, a well-dressed idiot who treats his staff poorly, leaving him with a decidedly uninspiring (and uninspired) set of people working for him. His campaign blows.

I'm telling you, we can win this district. It deserves to be in the "longshot" category, for sure, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. If nothing changes, the odds are pretty long; if the campaign can get a small infusion of cash (I'm talking 50-70 thousand dollars more than we already expect coming in), the odds would tighten up considerably, to "Likely R" or something like that. If there were more money (100K or so), it may even go to "Leans R." McHugh's support melts away really, really fast as soon as people are exposed to his record. We're working on it ...

by BriVT 2006-08-30 03:10AM | 0 recs
Re: NY-23

Interesting.  I know the Dems won the Assembly seat from Watertown a few years ago for the first time in 100 years.  This area, like a lot of upstate of NY, appears to be trending Dem.

by John Mills 2006-08-30 06:00AM | 0 recs
by zappatero 2006-08-30 03:31AM | 0 recs
Re: CO-05 Fawcett versus Open R (in rebellion)

Here's fingers crossed for Hefley's following to get just as disgusted with Lamborn by Election Day and turn out for Fawcett.

by donnatella 2006-08-30 05:48AM | 0 recs
Scott Garrett is NJ-05, not 07

NJ-07 is where netroots candidate Linda Stender is trying to unseat wingnut Mike Ferguson.

NJ-05 (my district) is a very much Republican gerrymandered district that includes much of affluent northern Bergen County, which though basically Republican is also very progressive, but it also cuts through very conservative parts of Passaic, Sussex and Warren Counties, running like a ribbon from the Hudson River to the Delaware River. It would be very, very difficult for a Dem to win this seat.

Over the years when the Repubs controlled the NJ Legislature they cut towns out of the district that would have given a Democrat a better chance and added others that make it easier for a Republican.  

What makes this district even tougher is that when election time rolls around the money for the Dem in this district is cut off and sent to other districts where it is perceived Dems have a better chance. Hopefully that will change for this cycle because Garrett is so far to the right that if the voters are educated we might have a chance.

by Jersey Devil 2006-08-30 03:50AM | 0 recs
NC 08

Money is a great advantage in politics, but every once in a while a candidate comes along who is willing to do the work. Get out and met the people, Larry Kissell is this kind of man. Kissell has a message that resounds around the district. His gas for $1.22 and other promos. shows he is inventive and has surrounded himself with people that know his district. Please support this worthwhile candidate, they don't come around to often.

by surveyor 2006-08-30 04:03AM | 0 recs

With all due respect, you missed three races in Texas that are more likely to be competitive than the ones you did list.

TX23: This newly-redrawn district is about 53-47 GOP now, and a big field of Dems led by former Netroots candidate Ciro Rodriguez has a great shot of forcing incumbent Rep. Henry Bonilla into a runoff. If the Dems don't win this seat this year, it will be a top takeover target in 2008.

TX14: Shane Sklar is a polished, accomplished, and aggressive candidate running against the dinosaur Ron Paul in a district that's largely new to Paul (he ran uncontested in the re-redistricted TX14 in 2004). Sklar is getting fundraising help from Nick Lampson, and he will make a race out of this.

TX31: Mary Beth Harrell has done possibly the best job of getting free media as any of our non-CD22 candidates, thanks in part to her opponent's persistent case of foot in mouth disease. Harrell has a son on active duty in Iraq, and she's made good headway with veterans' organizations in the area. The district is mostly in Williamson County, which is one of a handful of counties whose vote for George W. Bush declined from 2000 to 2004, and there's a great slate of downballot Dems running there as well. Keep an eye on TX31 and Mary Beth Harrell.

by kuff 2006-08-30 04:06AM | 0 recs
MI-11 Tony Trupiano has a shot

If the netroots poobahs didn't keep ignoring his race, and started helping him get some funding.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/8 /9/184939/6319

Carolyn Kay

by Caro 2006-08-30 04:59AM | 0 recs
MN-2 & 3

Ramstad and Kline aren't losing, even in a Category 5 Democratic Hurricane year.

Ramstad is a true moderate and will keep his seat until he retires. Kline has a friendlier district than does Gil Gutknecht to the south, and Colleen Rowley is no Tim Walz.

Considering the overall gerrymandered state of the nation's House districts, I see things in a bit more of a polarized light than does MyDD in a few situations. I am more optimistic about Tim Walz in MN-01, for example, and less optimistic about these two.

by the wanderer 2006-08-30 05:16AM | 0 recs
Re: MN-2 & 3

Quick edit: I muddled two points here. MN's districts are pretty cleanly drawn, so my relative optimism about them isn't really a good example of my polarized perception of the House races overall.

by the wanderer 2006-08-30 05:22AM | 0 recs
Re: MN-2 & 3

One other way Ramstad could lose his seat: If a Democratic legislature/governor draws Ramstad and the Democrat from MN-5 into a district together in 2012.

by bschak 2006-08-30 06:54AM | 0 recs
GA- 11

Georgia 11 is winnable. A democrat won state senate there in 2004.

Phil Gingrey stood up for the big drug company giveaway called medicaid reform;  his committee seats are what protects him.

Notably, Phil has sent out mails lately saying that the Iraqi war is being won and hailing the death of Zarqawi.

by heyAnita 2006-08-30 05:26AM | 0 recs
Re: GA- 11

I don't think this district is winnable. It's been made more Republican.

by Ga6thDem 2006-08-30 10:08AM | 0 recs

Tom "Let's Bomb Mecca" Tancredo may be a total nutjob, but he's safe this year, just as he has been in years past. While Bill Winter is putting up a bigger threat to Tancredo than we've seen in the last few years, there is still plenty of anti-immigration sentiment in this district, which helps Tancredo. Plus, Winter has his own problems, including going through a string of campaign managers over the past year. I hate to be pessimistic, but Winter has a VERY long shot.

by donnatella 2006-08-30 05:44AM | 0 recs
CO-05 not CO-06

I sadly have to agree.  Winter's messaging has been totally undercut by the Colorado Democrats' hard move to the right on immigration, which basically accepts Tancredo's frame of the issue.  Hard to portray Tancredo as out of touch under these circumstances.  I actually don't think the anti-immigration nutjobs are a big enough force to really matter in CO-06, what we really have is a very wealthy district that cares little about what their representative does and will continue to pull the lever for whatever R is put in front of them.

On the other hand, everything is breaking Jay Fawcett's way in the open seat race in CO-05, where (as Zappatero pointed out upthread) lots of Republicans simply can't stand the guy who slimed his way to the top of the six way primary.

by Colorado Luis 2006-08-30 07:05AM | 0 recs

I wrote about that race last week.  It looks like Project 90 is seriously going to get involved; if we can't beat Sensenbrenner, we can at least keep him from spending his money on more winnable races like the WI-08.

by folkbum 2006-08-30 05:50AM | 0 recs
Re: WI-05

Amen. Sensenbrenner is such a scumbag that even making him sweat to keep his seat is satisfying.  It's a pretty red district, but there is joy in punishing someone like this guy.

by freedc 2006-08-30 08:10AM | 0 recs

Delighted to see that you are no longer ignoring Carol Shea-Porter as the signs pop up all over our district and we work on GOTV.  You can find out more about Carol here.

by bloomingpol 2006-08-30 06:03AM | 0 recs
Re: 40 House Longshots

Just wanted to say this is a great list.  Thanks for the hard work David.

by John Mills 2006-08-30 06:34AM | 0 recs
Re: 40 House Longshots


Great job David

by BENAWU 2006-08-30 06:52AM | 0 recs
Re: And as usual we get no love in the PA-09

Agree Lucas.  That is a pretty basic part of running a campaign in the 21st Century.

by John Mills 2006-08-30 06:37AM | 0 recs

I live in the Michigan 7th, which is in south-central Michigan. Traditionally this district votes Republican. The GOP was founded in Jackson in 1854, and the district includes uber-wingnut strongholds like Hillsdale. However, Kerry polled 45% here, and moderate Joe Schwarz got 47% in the primary. Schwarz has refused to endorse right-wing Christofascist Tim Walberg. If the Democrat can convince the Kerry voters to come out for her again, and get about 15% of the Schwarz/Bush voters to cross over against the right-wing idiot Walberg, the Democrat has a real chance. I know that moderate Republicans will think seriously about crossing over. Getting them to change habits will take work. But the Democrat's values are more closely aligned with the district as a whole than Walberg (who was nominated with 19% of the vote).

The problem, however, is the Democrat herself. Sharon Renier ran in 2004, and Schwarz himself has said good things about her. She won a four-way primary for the Democratic nomination this time, largely because she was the only woman and because she had name recognition from her last race (when she got trounced by Schwarz with the help of many Dem crossover votes). Renier's organization seems to be a joke. Her website is pathetic. If she were serious - and I don't just mean in terms of money - then she would have a real chance to take this district. Lots of people say that when our State Senator, Democrat Mark Schauer, is term-limited out in 2008, he will run for the seat. That's all well and good. But 2006 is the most ripe year for a Democrat.

by elrod 2006-08-30 07:28AM | 0 recs
Re: 41 House Longshots

Make that 41 long shots and include Ted Ankum from TX-10.  This is one of the districts jerrymandered by Delay's good ole boys.  When they drew the lines they took into account not only demographics, but also the homes of teir one candidates.  They made this a weak district for them (only 56% republican) but made sure no teir one Democratic candidates lived in it.  In 2004 the Dems here were so disorganized that they did not get a candidate on the ballot and only had a write in candidate.  This year we have Ted Ankrum.  Decorated Veteran, war hero, progressive, anti-war candidate.  He's beginning to get some traction, in a district that is actually very winnable by a military vet candidate. but he could sure use some blogosphere support and money.  Check out his website for more info.  http://www.tedankrum.com/

by Ken in Tex 2006-08-30 07:59AM | 0 recs
WA-05 Peter Goldmark

In Washington State, we think Peter Goldmark is surging.  He matches the state's district well.  He's a charasmatic 3rd generation rancher and a microbiologist to boot.  He's currently doing a tour of the district.  I wrote about it here with links to a lot of other posts on this locally:

http://www.evergreenpolitics.com/ep/2006 /08/peter_goldmark__1.html

by lynnallen 2006-08-30 09:34AM | 0 recs
Re: 40 House Longshots

TX-CD10  Still has a chance with Ted Ankrum, Democrat.  If Bandarik, the Libertarian takes away enough votes from Michael McCaul, we may see a surprise upset here.  People are really mad at the Republicans and want change and Ted Ankrum is one fine gentleman.  He's already had the opportunity while working at NASA to go up against Tom Delay and win.  While we don't have a lot of money for this campaign we are working hard to get the word out.  Any help in this area is appreciated!

by krwheaton 2006-08-30 09:55AM | 0 recs

I'm the precinct chair for Travis county #105.  We are working hard here to get out a wave of support for Ted Ankrum in the most democratic part of his district.  I think this race is considered to be a tough one to win (by conventional measurements) because in the last election there was no Democratic candidate on the ballot, so the results from 2004 seem to show a huge advantage for the Republican.  However, the demographics of the district tell another picture.  It has a weak Republican majority, the incumbant has never run against an opponent in a general election before, Ted Ankrum is a decorated war veteran, and the taint of Tom DeLay is touching the Republican in this district as it is several others here in Texas.  I have never seen the Democratic base in my precinct as energized as they are now.  With just a little push, this race can be very competitive.  It might be already, but as far as I know, there is no independant or interal polling to determine where it stands.  I think this one will fly under the radar to an extra win for us in November.

by Ken in Tex 2006-08-30 11:58AM | 0 recs
Re: IL 11

I really hope John Pavich pulls it off: Jerry Weller is truly awful -- and Pavich is great, ex-CIA counterterrorism so they can't portray him as "soft on terra" . . .


by Maven 2006-08-30 10:02AM | 0 recs
Re: IL 11

It's JOHN PAVICH. And yes he is a great candidate who can win in November if he just has the money to get his message out. He has and is gaining more grassroots support all the time. He is a lawyer who worked at The Hague, Netherlands on an International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. He was part of a defense tean that negociated the first plea agreement of a national leader in the history of the tribunal. He has a progressive, people before profit, solid democratic message. He is ex-CIA. When a classmate in college was killed in the at the WTC he joined the CIA to serve his country. After a few years under the Bush admin. in the CIA he realised that wasn't going to work. He left and decided to run for office in the district where he grew up (the boundaries have since been "jerry"mandered and changed so it no longer includes his childhood home.)

Weller's ties to the notorious Guatemalan Rios Montt crime family are no laughing matter. Nor is the conflict of interest caused by his marriage to Zury Rios-Montt de Weller. Weller has a seat and is vice chairman of the International  Relation Committee - Western Hemisphere. His wife sits on the equivalent committee in Guatemala. They met will both were "fixing" CAFTA for their governments. They married in Guatemala, in ex-dictator General Rios Montt home. He is now wanted on an international warrant for genocide, torture and terrorism. Weller's wife is the second highest ranking official in her father's political party, the very corrupt FRG. Noted for it's dabbling in narco-trafficking among lots of other organized crime activity. She is an enthusiasitic and unapologetic supporter of her father and the FRG party. She helped organize riots by the FRG in the summer of 2003 to get her father on the presidential ballot. He lost anyway.

Weller is also connected to the Abramoff, Delay and Cunningham scandals. Lots of smoke there around Weller. Particularly the Cunningham scandal. A news piece yesterday announced that 10 more subpoenas are ready to go out. Could be why Weller is spending an extended paternity break in Guatemala. Yes, he and Zury just had their child in Guatemala. (Although her pregnancy and the child being his have as many rumors going as little Suri Cruise, here in the 11th district.)

Pavich is a wonderful candidate, a solid progressive democratic voice with a nice normal family with no connections to crime, genocide or terrorism - other than his committment to fight the REAL war on terrorism.

by Kankakee Voice 2006-08-30 11:06AM | 0 recs
Re: IL 11

It's amazing how incredibly vulnerable GOP seats are completely ignored by the DCCC.  How can anyone want to keep this man in office?

Same thing with IL-15.  Tim Johnson is more lackluster than John Shimkus (IL-19).  I didn't think that was possible.  Good thing Dr. Gill & Dan Stover are the Dem candidates in those CDs.

Dan Seals (IL-10) has a great chance, too.  Not many people are happy with Mark Kirk.

by Philosophe Forum 2006-08-30 06:02PM | 0 recs
Re: 40 House Longshots

The district I live in is certainly a long shot but the district has been made more democratic with the inclusion of part of Dekalb county. With Bush's 20 pt approval rating drop and the fact that Tom Price had a challenger in the primary I would think that we have a chance here.

Tom Price is not even advertising the fact that he is a Republican.

by Ga6thDem 2006-08-30 10:11AM | 0 recs
WA-05 DKos Diaries

There was some good discussion on this race on the front page of Daily Kos yesterday.
Check it out here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/8/29/ 122555/129

Other diaries on the race here:
http://www.dailykos.com/tag/Peter%20Gold mark

and the man's own diaries here:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/8 /25/15019/3567
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/8 /22/123058/248
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/8 /18/182816/607

This race can be won--McMorris has done a poor job actually representing the district and is vulnerable.  It's largely an ag district, and is really being hurt by high gas prices.

Goldmark is a strong candidate.  He started late, but his fundraising has been good.  He's very impressive in person, and he's making personal contact throughout the district a cornerstone of his campaign.  The best comparison I can think of is MT Gov. Brian Schweitzer--and in fact, Schweitzer will be doing a campaign event with Goldmark early in September.

This is a relatively cheap media market, and a little money could make a difference.

by benchcoat 2006-08-30 10:58AM | 0 recs
Other Michigan Races

Upthread (depending on how you sort) under the title "MI-09" is a comment by chanupi about the hinterlands of Michigan.  There have been a lot of terribly weak candidates in N and W Michigan for years.

Two of these districts are probably not going to change any time soon, but oddly enough, the two with the largest Republican voting majority for Bush (60%) appear to be ones that we could make headway in.  These are MI 02 (Peter Hoekstra) and MI 03 (Vern Ehlers).  Both districts have a changing demographic, as the Hispanic community continues to grow around Grand Rapids, Holland, and Muskegon.  Both districts have a history of manufacturing employment that has been hit hard by changing economies.  (Grand Rapids, MI 03 is furniture, Muskegon was a lumber town.)  Both districts are also currently represented by older GOP incumbents that are hard right and have been very supportive of Bush.  

I think for the first time in quite awhile there is a good candidate against Hoekstra, Kimon Kotos.  He has national political experience with the Gore campaign, so he won't be clueless to the process (no snarky Gore comments please).  He also has good progressive stands and a history in Michigan.  The Dutch Reformed voter base of W.Mich is a tough sell for Dems, but they are also fiscally conservative, so if he can tie Hoekstra to Bush and the deficit, he may make some inroads.  It's a long shot, but to me it looks like a situation where he could win the second time.  A race to build upon for 08.

I know less about Jim Rinck, who is Ehlers challenger, but he has some experience and would be known in the area as he has been part of the Grand Rapids public school board.  He strikes me as a fairly conservative Democrat, but one that is still pro choice and against discrimination based on sexual orientation (despite being a Scoutmaster--there are still a few reasonable Scouters).

by The lurking ecologist 2006-08-30 01:42PM | 0 recs
Re: 40 House Longshots

Did I miss the mention of the Georgia Westmoreland (R)/McGraw (D) Race?

by yardman5508 2006-08-30 03:42PM | 0 recs


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