CT-Sen: Rasmussen Polls Three Way; Zogby finds Dems Happy With Lamont Win

Lieberman 46, Lamont 41, The Gambler 6. Previous poll had it 40-40-13. Winston Smith points out that this is probably Lieberman's ceiling. Rasmussen points out that all of Lieberman's gains over the past month have come from Republicans. If Republicans can get anyone half way decent on the ballot, Lieberman should be immediately finished off. Even if they don't manage to do that, Lamont will probably win anyway. A very weak Republican candidate could make things interesting, however.

Also, Zogby Interactive (yeah, the highly questionable Internet polls) finds Dems thrilled with Lamont's victory:It found that nearly four out of five Democrats (79%) were happy the former Democratic vice presidential nominee was knocked off by Lamont, a wealthy cable television executive whose campaign focused almost exclusively on his opposition to the war – and Lieberman’s support of it. Just 12% said they were not pleased with the results of the primary, which riveted political junkies across the nation. Another 10% of Democrats said they were not sure what to think.

Nearly two in three – 62% - said they believe the results of the Connecticut primary will hold national implications for the elections coming up this fall. In addition, 70% said they think the Lamont victory makes the Democratic Party stronger heading into the important election season.

A majority of Democrats said they believe the Lamont victory points to a Democratic takeover of at least one house of Congress this fall, while 27% said they believe it is a precursor to victories that will result in Democratic control of both the U.S. House and Senate. Republicans now hold control of both the House and the Senate. Make what you will of the Zogby poll. What I really want to know is why didn't Winston Smith, a frequent MyDD commenter and diarist, post the Rasmussen poll over here instead of only posting it at Dailykos? I feel jilted.

Tags: CT-Sen, Joe Liberman, Ned Lamont, polls, Republicans, Senate 2006 (all tags)



It's going to be a two-way race

A very weak Republican candidate could make things interesting.

But that's just what we've got, right?  The Gambler doesn't want out, and there was a story claiming that Rove didn't want him out either.  It's far better for the national GOP to have him stay in.  They have basically zero chance of getting the seat themselves, so the way to maximize Joe's chances is to have as worthless a candidate as possible on the ballot as an R.  It's rather embarassing for the state GOP, but won't they follow orders?

The frustrating aspect of this is that there's a well-funded challenge to the Democrat in what should be a safe Democratic seat.  I'm going to send money to Lamont that I could otherwise send to other Democratic races, and I blame Joe.

by DaveMB 2006-08-11 07:14AM | 0 recs
Re: It's going to be a two-way race

Lamont will win this.

His theme from now until election day should be: "There is onl7y one candidate in this race who will hold Geiorge W. Bush and the Republican pqarty accountabvlke for tehir failures: Ned Lamont.

Ned should start orasing Schlesinger on the stump as at least being open and honest about his political affiliation with the voters. Schlesinger's proud to be a Republican. Joe just walks, talks and acts like one, and then claims he's an "independant Democrat."

by Hesiod Theogeny 2006-08-11 07:32AM | 0 recs
I call Bullshit.

Rassmussen also shows Conrad Burns "coming back" in Montana from their poll a month earlier. Even though he's been absolutely pummeled over that firefighters incident.

In my opinion, this poll is 100% fruadulent. And it is designed to keep Lieberman from dropping out.

I believe this because, as you pointed out, the Rassmussen poll from the end of July showed Lamont and Lieberman in a dead heat in a 3 way race. Then the CBS exit poll showed a singtificant number of Lieberman voters would switch to Lamont if Joe mounted an independant campaign.

So, according to rassmussen, Lamont picked up ZERO additional support since the election? And Joe got all his from a switch of voters from Schlesinger to Joe?

I call bullshit on this one. Bullshit, bullshit, bulllshit.

We need a LEGITIMATE independent poll to come out.

by Hesiod Theogeny 2006-08-11 07:24AM | 0 recs
This is a bullshit poll

This is my comment from last night.  This poll's timing was designed to create an untrue picture of the race.  Starting the day of the election is Rasmussen's ploy to keep Joe in the race.  this poll should be denounced as a manipulation.

Rasmussen is polling (none / 0)
the Lamont - Lieberman general election.  My contention is that it's too soon to do that.  I think they are doing it on purpose to jigger the results.  Rasmussen is a Republican polling firm.

There is not enough time to let the race "marinate" and let people think about the race in a new light.  Kos is reporting that so far the results are even.  That helps Lieberman.  Later would probably show Lamont in the lead.

This is designed to help Lieberman.  I would be suspicious of the outcome

by debcoop 2006-08-11 10:30AM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: Rasmussen Polls

That Zogby poll reinforces my BULLSHIT theory.

All Rassmussen did was take Schlesinger's support from him and give it to Lieberman.

by Hesiod Theogeny 2006-08-11 07:29AM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: Rasmussen Polls

zogby interactive is BS to start. its a poll of people who want to be polled of internet junkies, who would  tend to be towards lamont anyway.

by yomoma2424 2006-08-11 07:49AM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: Rasmussen Polls

     Well, of course Zogby weights the responses by various categories to get a result that reflects the general population. And their results from a self-selected sample are not much different from their and other pollsters' results from randomly selected samples. It's not bullshit; it's an attempt to find new ways to get a representative sample. But they want to do as good a job as possible, because it's got the Zogby brand name on it.

by Ron Thompson 2006-08-11 09:54AM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: Rasmussen Polls

Love "The Gambler" name for Schlessinger.  Will Kenny Rogers play him in the movie about this election?

If I am not mistaken, Rassmussen is an automated poll.  Does anyone know for sure?  Automated polls are not as accurate as live interview ones and Rassmussen has a tendancy to be all over the place with its results.

by John Mills 2006-08-11 07:38AM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: Rasmussen Polls

It's a bullshit poll.

I'm sticking to my guns on this.

by Hesiod Theogeny 2006-08-11 07:40AM | 0 recs
Gov. Richardson calls out Joe.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/08/11/l ieberman.senate/

"I look forward to supporting Ned as he fights to help Democrats take back the Senate, and I call on Joe Lieberman to respect the will of the voters and step aside," Richardson said."

Unfortunately, that BULLSHIT rassmussen poll is undermining the efforty to get Joe to quit.

I guarantee you that next week's Quinnipiac or Gallup or Zogby Poll will show Joe behnd by 8 nor 9 points.

But by then it will be too late.

We should be beating the shit out of this crappy-ass Bullshit poll.

by Hesiod Theogeny 2006-08-11 07:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Gov. Richardson calls out Joe.

dude calm down , no need to post the same thing 5 times. we understand - you dont like the result so the poll is wrong. good for you.

by yomoma2424 2006-08-11 07:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Gov. Richardson calls out Joe.

Just backing up my argument. And pointing out that we need to discredit this poll.

by Hesiod Theogeny 2006-08-11 07:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Gov. Richardson calls out Joe.
Count me in the "you need to calm down" camp.
by Chris Bowers 2006-08-11 08:38AM | 0 recs
well I agree with Hesiod

This poll's purpose was to help Joe.  I was horrified when it was announced: I knew this would be the outcome as you can check from what I wrote last night.

http://www.mydd.com/comments/2006/8/10/1 62125/789/9#9

by debcoop 2006-08-11 10:36AM | 0 recs
what about all his GOTVing?

is it possible that his massive GOTV effort and big money ads gave him a few points? The way I see it, he probably picked up 7 points from the GOP because they wanted to support a potential winner, probably picked up 5 or 6 points from Lamont supporters with his campaigning, and then lamont picked up 6 or 7 back because he won the primary.

This whole thread, nobody's entertained the idea that maybe all that campaigning did something to the numbers?

by msnook 2006-08-11 08:06PM | 0 recs
Re: what about all his GOTVing?

well it may have. I don't deny this, but if the polling had waited a week we would have seen his numbers recede as the Dems came home to help Lamont.  

Now Joe is using this ad to help him to justify staying in the race and to try to build his numbers.

Rasmussen intended to interfere with the natural progression by doing it too early, because they knew it would interrupt the natural progression downward for Joe's numbers.

by debcoop 2006-08-11 08:41PM | 0 recs
Bullshit Rassmussen says...

...Tester and Burns are tied.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/Sta te%20Polls/August%202006/MontanaSenate.h tm

This is an improvement for Burns in the past month. And it occurred right at the time Burns was getting the crap kicked out of him on that firefighters story.

So, either Rassmussen is measuring some latent hatred for firefighters among Montana voters, OR THIS POLL IS HORSESHIT TOO!

by Hesiod Theogeny 2006-08-11 07:47AM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen

Sorry dude, i was gonna cross post, but then got caught up trying to defend my arguments in the thread.

Its way harder to post on Kos.  I have read Kos for a couple of years, but just started being an active member, and its taking some time to get my Kos legs.  They are like an unruly mob over there.  

by Winston Smith 2006-08-11 08:13AM | 0 recs
ha ha!

yeah, you have a combination of a million different opinions and everybody trying to prove that they are the king skeptic of everything... nasty combination.


by neutron 2006-08-11 08:18AM | 0 recs
for real. like a first year liberal arts class

in that everyone jumps at every single opportunity to prove someone wrong.

by msnook 2006-08-11 08:09PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen

Ya, I started over there, but after they had the changeover where Meteor Blades and DHinMI cut back on the front page posting, I came over here exactly for that reason--a lot more laid back and rational.

by Valatan 2006-08-11 08:30AM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen

One of my best friend's mom is a dean at Quinnipiac.  Maybe I could work an angle and get early peeks at their polling date, and be real popular in blogtopia.  

by Winston Smith 2006-08-11 09:34AM | 0 recs

If Republicans can get anyone half way decent on the ballot, Lieberman should be immediately finished off. Even if they don't manage to do that, Lamont will probably win anyway. A very weak Republican candidate could make things interesting, however.

I agree with you on Lieberman being toast if they replace Schlessinger, but if not, what makes you think "Lamont will probably win anyway" when he's 5 down now? Is this just sunny optimism, or do you have some reasons for thinking this way?

by dwbh 2006-08-11 08:16AM | 0 recs
Re: curious

Any GOP candidate will have a floor in the November election, and I peg that floor at 20%.  

The only reason that the Rasmussen poll shows Schlesinger polling so low is that for the past month, this has been a exciting, down to the wire two man race.  What is Schlesinger's name recognition?  

Connecticut has a very popular Republican governor.  That means any GOP candidate will be first on the ballot.  It also means that as the race proceeds, the GOP candidate can bask in the popularity of Gov Rell, who will presumably campaign for the candidate, as is her job, as de facto head of the state GOP.  

Even if regular GOP voters, people who always vote republican, and who have been working to kick Lieberman out of the senate for 18 years (30-35%) abandon the GOP candidate in large numbers, they all wont.  I find it unimaginable to believe that any GOP senate candidate, gambler, child molestor or otherwise would not be able to pull at least 20% of the vote.  

So, if 46% is Lieberman's ceiling, then when the polls accurately assess a threeway race, Lieberman's true support will stabilize in the 30's%  as the Republican candidate reaches his floor.

If the GOP go Rove in CT, which I seriously doubt, considering how much Rell hates Bush and Rove, and they dont run a GOP candidate (which would require Schlesinger's consent, he cant be forced from the ballot) then its a whole new race.

But if it is a three man race, the only number we need to pay attention to at this point is how Lamont is polling.  If he is polling above 40%, he is the strong favorite to win.

by Winston Smith 2006-08-11 08:38AM | 0 recs
Re: curious

I'm not so sure about your point WRT name recognition. As far as the MSM is concerned, it's still just a two-man race, and I don't know how much name recognition Schlessinger's going to get. Even Ken Mehlman refused to endorse Schlessinger. Schlessinger has gotten some press, but it's been mostly the bad kind (I'd be really curious to see what Schlessinger's favorables/unfavorables are from the poll). Hannity, Coulter, and friends are not jumping onboard the Schlessinger train either. If the GOP weren't so ambivalent about their support, I could see your point, but there's just no reason for the MSM and others to start paying attention to Schlessinger now.

If he does get top line on the ballot, that will help by a couple of percentage points, but I see no guarantee that Schlessinger would pull 20%. Didn't Keyes get less than 20% in his last Senate race against Obama?

Anyway, I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

by dwbh 2006-08-11 09:18AM | 0 recs
Re: curious

Winston - what's the MOE on that Rasmussen poll?

Unless it's pretty damned small, we're still looking at a statistical tie: as Mystery Pollster once pointed out, "since the margin of error applies separately to each candidate's support, the margin of error effectively doubles when applied to the margin between candidates."

(Actually, it's a good deal more complicated than that, but I assume Blumenthal was keeping things simple for a general audience.  But his point applies to this race.)

But I gotta disagree with Hesiod: a statistical tie at this point should scare the bejeebers out of Lieberman.  He was up 51-27-9 in the July 20 Q-poll, and he still has the advantage of being the well-known commodity in the race - an advantage that will only decrease over the next 3 months.  If this poll is a good reflection of the electorate, Lieberman's the one with an uphill battle.

I was hoping the first post-primary poll would show Lamont as close as 10 points.  I'm ecstatic.

by RT 2006-08-12 03:57AM | 0 recs
Re: curious

4% moe

sample size 550

by Winston Smith 2006-08-12 01:49PM | 0 recs
Off Topic

Chris -- nice running into you at the Yeah Yeah Yeahs!

Sorry I had to skedaddle.

by The Cunctator 2006-08-11 08:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Off Topic
no problem. And it turs out the band playing when you were there was "TV on the Radio."
by Chris Bowers 2006-08-11 08:37AM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: Rasmussen Polls...

Meanwhile....back at the War/Occupation

"This place is crowded -- peddlers and pilgrims, women and children. A number of people that I know and my neighbors, who committed nothing, were slain today."

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/ world/la-fg-iraq11aug11,0,1284559.story? coll=la-headlines-world

by goplies 2006-08-11 08:26AM | 0 recs
by sphexus 2006-08-11 08:34AM | 0 recs
CT AFL-CIO Waffling on November

After endorsing Joe in the primary, the president of the CT-AFL/CIO was quoted in today's NYT (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/11/nyregi on/11conn.html) waffling on the November race...

"The president of the Connecticut A.F.L.-C.I.O., which had endorsed Mr. Lieberman through the primary, also disclosed yesterday that it may sit out the fall election."

Contact information for the CT-AFL/CIO:http://www.ctaflcio.org/?zone=/unionacti ve/officers.cfm

by Cobalt 2006-08-11 10:02AM | 0 recs
Won't stand

I'd be surprised if that stands. You can bet that the politicking is proceeding fast and furious inside Connecticut labor at this moment. John Olsen, CT AFL-CIO chief who gave that quote and an old time Lieberman ally, is being plowed under by the Lamontistas, just as Joe himself was. He has little direct executive authority, but must respond to all the locals and international union state bodies in Connecticut. Central political organization of Connecticut labor around endorsed candidates is in fact one of his main functions.

He has a lot to lose by being an obstructionist, especially since unionists for Lamont will build a parallel structure to do what the state-wide AFL-CIO usually does if they refuse to on this occasion. That will build a battle-tested network of pro-Lamont and anti-Olsen labor activists throughout the state, something no figurehead bureaucrat like him would welcome.

The Connecticut branch of my own union, the American Federation of Teachers, endorsed Lamont six weeks or so before the primary, that's 36,000 teachers and allied professionals it is wise not to piss off. Ned has had other good labor support all along, including from the Machinists (IAM), who are big in Connecticut.

by MikeB 2006-08-11 01:31PM | 0 recs
3-way race

Historically, most 3-way races are about one party splitting their vote, and the other one walking away with the spoils.  Both Taft and Teddy Roosevelt were more popular than Woodrow Wilson, but they split the vote and Wilson got in.

On the surface, having an "independent Democrat" on the ballot looks bad for the real Democrat.  Until you realize that "independent Democrat" is code for "unofficial Republican."  If the GOP gets any momentum in the race, it's only going to drain someone's Joe-mentum.  Holy Joe and the Gambler split the Republican vote, and we have another real Democrat in the Senate.

by schroeder 2006-08-11 12:00PM | 0 recs
Lamont is the underdog, but I like the 41%

The significant number is Lamont's 41. If that's truly his base he has a greater chance than I was giving him. My guess would have put him in the 36 range so this is impressive.

But I have no idea how so many are dismissing the poll margin or projected Lamont to lead the new polling. Late primary night on DU I estimated Lieberman would lead the new polling by high single digits, perhaps 43-36-12. In the same thread, one poster after another proclaimed Lamont would lead big. Sure, that would be true if it was an all-Democrats affair again.  

Lieberman may have run an incompetent campaign, but he had a mathematical reason to explore the traitorous indy run. Let's not pretend otherwise. Two-thirds of Connecticut voters are not registered Democrats. The split is 8-6-4. That's an easy ratio to remember; indies at 8, Democrats with 6 and Republicans at 4. It's essentially Republicans who will decide Lieberman's fate, not Democrats. That's always been the irony here. Republicans who really don't care too much for Lieberman, but lack a viable alternative from their own party, have potentially more of a say in this than the heavily progressive anti-war group who loathe Lieberman. I'm talking about registered Republicans and right leaning independents. Since Lieberman will receive perhaps 1/3 of the Democratic vote, that gap between Lamont and Lieberman among our voters is not enough to cushion Lamont from the 2/3 who generally will favor Lieberman's partisanship more Lamont's.

I'll continue to suggest Lamont needs to engage Schlesinger in a typical D vs. R conflict, boosting Schlesinger's name ID and potentially head faking a portion of the enraged and braindead GOPers. Every point Schlesinger goes up in the polls siphons disproportionately from Lieberman. Might not work but you've got to handicap the situation properly and try it. I've run many scenarios via Excel and frankly, I don't see Lamont winning unless Schlesinger wins at least 15-18%. He's best with Schlesinger in the low 20s, which may be unrealistic.

One last point about the Connecticut race: don't expect the polling to chance significantly for a long time, if at all. That's just a guess but I think it has basis in logic. We were accustomed to Lamont on a takeoff trend line for months. There's a limit there. Plus, the Republicans who support Lieberman are not going to care if he's broke or bitter. They don't think Schlesinger can win and Lamont is not an option for them.

As far as Montana, Tester is a great candidate. Better than Lamont, IMO. He's a vote-for guy, not primarily a vote-against-the-opponent guy, so I expect he'll hang on. But none of these races against senatorial incumbents will be easy. We've been amusing ourselves in that regard. Burns, DeWine, Santorum and Talent will make runs. If you see a narrow poll or polls involving Ensign or Allen, expect the next batch to widen. Likewise, if Chafee survives the primary he immediately boosts in the polls against Whitehouse and that lead is all but gone. I'm not trying to be pessimistic but I've been betting heavily on these races for 10 years and seen the dependable trends.

BTW, I know it's fashionable to knock Schlesinger as a gambler. But keep in mind the casinos threw him out because he could beat them as a card counter in blackjack. If anyone thinks card counting is a simple skill, especially in a casino atmosphere, they're remarkably ill informed. You've got to be sharp and sly not only in keeping the count, but also in varying your bet size when the count is positive. Hardly equivalent to a give-away degenerate dunce like Bennett, who was insisting on high limit slot machines in his hotel room.

by jagakid 2006-08-11 01:05PM | 0 recs
Squeeze the Dem establishment

Squeezing Dem politicos to fall in strongly for Lamont and against Lieberman is part of the picture. That's the natural dynamic, especially considering Joe's increasingly deranged rhetoric and the danger it poses for all Democratic candidates, but it can't hurt to help it along.

Chris Dodd, anyone?

by MikeB 2006-08-11 01:08PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: Rasmussen Polls Three Way; Zogby finds

I think that Lieberman's spike may well be genuine.  A poll before the primaries reported Lamont's lead being cut, and in the final results Lamont's lead was smaller still.

As Kos was explaining, dumping a lot of ads on the public in the period of time that immediately preceeds the election does have an effect.  A better message works more slowly -- you have to pay attention.

The state of public opinion in CT is pretty viotile, and I suspect that Lieberman did not secure any lasting gains.  His record offers rich picking for a competent campaign, and the war is not becomming more popular.  But it may be a long hard slog.

Lieberman will definitely repeat the trick, he has a warchest to do it.  Lamont must build up a good lead in the next several months -- he has time for his better message to work.

by Piotr 2006-08-11 01:10PM | 0 recs
Re: CT-Sen: Rasmussen Polls Three Way; Zogby finds

by Piotr 2006-08-11 01:10PM | 0 recs


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