Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Bumped from the diaries -- Jonathan. Consider this an open thread on the Mexican election, foreign elections in general or Latin American politics.

According to Mexican Newspaper Universal with 80% of the votes recounted AMLO (Lopez Obrador) now leads Calderon 36.69% to 34.67%

I am afraid I can't read Spanish very well so I won't know much else until my Mexican husband gets home- but since this is getting no press as far as I can tell in the American press I thought people might want to know this exciting news!

If any of you know more please add info in the comments.

Tags: Foreign Elections, Lopez Obrador, Mexican Election, Open Thread, recount (all tags)

Comments

81 Comments

Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

How is a Socialist who might ally Mexico with Hugo Chavez winning an election an "exciting" thing?

Obrador winning is a bad thing for America.

by musa 2006-07-05 04:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Unfortunately, you are wrong.  And perhaps you need to visit the altiplano of Mexico or some of its more rural areas to understand why Lopez Obrador is needed at the current moment.

by illinois062006 2006-07-05 04:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

you need to visit the altiplano of Mexico or some of its more rural areas to understand why Lopez Obrador is needed

There is a major problem with your statement here and that is that the Altiplano is the most reliable region in the whole nation for Calderón, with the possible exception of the Bajio.  From Torreon to Juarez and Oriental to Occidental, the people voted for the Clintonista PAN party and not López Obrador.

Obrador won his margins in the economically central and relatively wealthy City of México.

by ChetEdModerate 2006-07-05 06:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Of course, Mississippi and more recently West Virginia started a trend of voting Republican, and pretty strongly too (for Mississippi). How do you explain that?

by KainIIIC 2006-07-05 06:30PM | 0 recs
Uh war & 'values'

People in poor rural border and southern states have been convinced that one, Republicans are strong on national security, Democrats are weak, Republicans are strong on family values, Democrats are worse than weak, they are actually a threat to families and marriage, and three the safety net of Social Security is a mirage. And not to put too fine a point on it that the Democratic Party is the natural home of gays and blacks.

In short the rural poor whites of West Virginia and Mississippi have bought into the Republican message of fear and hatred.

by Bruce Webb 2006-07-06 03:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

I would stress the word "relatively" in that sentence.  If you have spent time in Mexico City you know that is very relative (I don't know if you have or havn't I am not judging either way)

People in Mexico City are extremly frustrated with their quality of life regardless of income level. My in-laws there are pretty middle class (yes there really is a middle class in Mexico) and about half of them voted PAN this election and half voted for AMLO.  

The Church is another factor in this election.  The areas you mentioned above are some of the most Catholic areas- PAN is closely aligned with the church.  Even in my husband's family I would say how religious they were was a better indicator of how they voted than how much money they have.

by paida 2006-07-05 06:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Obarador winning is a bad thing for the current American administration- that is very different than being bad for America.

Obrador winning would be a very positive step for Latin America.  It continues a trend of populist leaders being elected- Chavez is the extremist member of this group and is very different from AMLO.  

Plus may I remind you that if we in this country are really committed to democracy in other countries than we have to understand that other countried have the right to choose the leaders they want.  Chavez is not my favorite guy either- but he was elected by the majority of people in his country.  That is the leader they want.

by paida 2006-07-05 05:24PM | 0 recs
What exactly has Chavez done wrong?

I mean concretely? What actual action has he taken that is a danger to US national security?

Sure his anti-American language is strong, but why shouldn't it be? There is abundant evidence of American participation in the attempted coup, we had a destroyer right off shore, were amazingly ready to offer Chavez a flight out of town, and recognized the coup leader before the dust had begun to settle.

Again what has he done to threaten fundamental American interests? Trading oil to Cuba in exchange for teachers and doctors for the rural poor? Trading oil at a discount to South American partners? Challenging America for influence in South America is only a threat to those who want to maintain the sweetheart business deals the US secured at the point of the gun in Central America and by cozying up to brutal dictators in South America. In the process the upper middle class thrived while the poor, well they remained poor. What exactly is Chavez doing that is wrong?

And no firing American officers and directors at CITCO and replacing them with Venezuelans isn't it. "What let the Wogs run their own state-owned company? A recipe for disaster?" No a recipe for not letting Americans award themselves huge salaries at the expense of the Venezuelan people

My question will be lost on people to whom "socialist" is an automatic insult rather than a term covering a wide range of economic, social and political systems. But really people need to present actual actions by Chavez that are a threat to you or me. As opposed to threatening certain business interests and the America First, America Forever folks of the  PNAC.

by Bruce Webb 2006-07-06 03:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Sorry, but electing a popular center-left politician sounds tons better than electing a far right guy closely aligned with Republican principles and being in a party known for breaching the seperation of church + state that exists in mexico.

by KainIIIC 2006-07-05 06:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

seperation of church + state that exists in mexico.

The Roman Catholic Church was nationalized in México nearly 150 years ago.  Ninety-eight percent of Mexicans are nominal members of that church.  That is not separation in any sense.

by ChetEdModerate 2006-07-05 06:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Sorry, I meant seperation of church and politics... big difference, but last I knew Vicente Fox was fined 20,000$ for breaking this.

by KainIIIC 2006-07-05 06:41PM | 0 recs
Nationalization equals marginalization

Mexico effectively eliminated the Church as a political actor.

In concrete terms the separation of church and state means no religious test for office and no forced tithes collected for the National Church from non-members backed by the military forces of the State. Viz Church of Ireland vs the Catholic Church in Ireland in the 17th through 19th centuries.

Mexico is a slightly different case, but I think it is fair , if paradoxical, to say that the Church became less an agent of the State after nationalization than before.

by Bruce Webb 2006-07-06 03:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

The article states they are reluctant to state that the current recount reflects any tendency, as the tally can change at any moment.  But the party for the Betterment of All is leading in the polls.  

But Lopez Obrador has a 2% lead, which is more than Calderon had on election night.  The question remain:  Which states remain to be counted?

by illinois062006 2006-07-05 04:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

I wish I knew where the votes were coming from too.

by paida 2006-07-05 05:25PM | 0 recs
it doesn't really matter

because there is nowhere in the country where Calderon had a big enough lead that, if applied to the votes remaining to be counted, it could overturn Lopez Obrador's 2% margin.

by lorax 2006-07-05 07:19PM | 0 recs
Calderon has gained quite a bit

With 87.26% of vote:

AMLO:  36.43
Calderon: 38.87

Difference now is only 1.56%

by paida 2006-07-05 06:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

This reminds me of the 1988 election between Cardenas and Salinas.  Will the IFE really persuade everyone that this time the close election is being counted fairly?

Calderón and López Obrabor would both be
Democrats in the USA  (sure, one would be Feingold and one Hilary but both D's).  I'm mostly worried that this new open Democracy in México might not be as stable as it looks whichever one wins.

by ChetEdModerate 2006-07-05 06:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

No way, Calderon would be a McCain-esque Republican.

And Madrazo would be like Daley, run by a corrupt political machine and offering nothing of value while promising everything.

by KainIIIC 2006-07-05 06:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Well, we're agreed on Madrazo.

by ChetEdModerate 2006-07-05 06:35PM | 0 recs
Calderon is very, very Catholic

as is the whole PAN, which Calderon's father founded.  Not that PRD would consider legalizing abortion, but PAN is opposed to birth control.

by lorax 2006-07-05 07:29PM | 0 recs
This is Not a Recount

The totals on Sunday were a sample of the total ballots. Unlike the United States, Mexico has a federal agency count votes for its federal offices and there is a special jurisdiction court just for electoral challenges.

I'm one of those people eager to see a Mexican President willing to question NAFTA, for their sake.

by risenmessiah 2006-07-05 06:32PM | 0 recs
Re: This is Not a Recount

AMLO wants to "review" NAFTA and fix the parts where they got the bad end of the deal - and make it more benifical to Mexicans rather than Corporations.

by KainIIIC 2006-07-05 06:34PM | 0 recs
Re: This is Not a Recount

Having just been to Mexico to work on a master's thesis for a state there, I can say without a doubt that while the state in question was a place where the PAN dominates...there is some sentiment that Fox wasted his six years by allowing NAFTA to be so one sided.

It just tickles me pink that after Bush thought he was going to overthrow Chavez that Latin America has responded unequivocally to toss out conservative regimes in all but Peru and Colombia.

by risenmessiah 2006-07-05 08:17PM | 0 recs
Peru

does NOT have a conservative regime.  Alan Garcia is a solid social democrat who has a lot more in common with AMLO than Ollanta Humala does.  Peru and the world are fortunate that an experienced leader like Alan won, not Chavez's authoritarian petro-puppet, Ollanta.

by lorax 2006-07-05 11:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Peru

Tad biased are we?

I'm not sure why the world is happy Garcia won given the disastrous time he enjoyed as President in the 1980s...

Still....if Garcia is progressive that bolsters my point...that unless you get $1 billion in foreign aid, you are pretty much watching the post-coup Latin American reject Bush entirely.

by risenmessiah 2006-07-06 12:04PM | 0 recs
Re: This is Not a Recount

You are right- I was wrong to use the word "recount".

by paida 2006-07-05 06:37PM | 0 recs
Obrador: 36.25...Calderon: 35.01

That's as of 11:19 EDT.  Obrador is up by 1.24 percentage points with 90% tallied.

Paida,
I think you reversed the two numbers. At no point during the official vote tally did Calderon lead by the amount you mentioned. At least not as of yet.

by elrod 2006-07-05 07:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Obrador: 36.25...Calderon: 35.01

Yes you are right!

Three days of this and I can't even think straight anymore!

Go AMLO!

It is way too close for comfort right now.

by paida 2006-07-05 08:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Thank you guys for keeping the numbers coming...I'm hoping AMLO wins!!!!!!!

by ce dit 2006-07-05 07:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

What does the minute by minute headline story say about Sinaloa (sorry my Spanish is not too good)?

by ce dit 2006-07-05 07:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Provide a link, and I will translate for you.

by illinois062006 2006-07-05 08:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

The last 3 updates have tightened the margin, is the fix in?

If Lopez Obrador leads after full tally will Calderon accept results as he wants Lopez Obrador to do?

by knoxvoljj 2006-07-05 07:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

With 91.71% coutned:

Lopez Abrador 36.15%
Calderon      35.09%

Difference     1.06%

Last several updates have been trending for Calderon.

by knoxvoljj 2006-07-05 08:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Still holding on with the count at 36.14 to 35.10 with 91.96% counted.  Does this remind anyone else of the Gregoire-Rossi battle in Washington state?  Unlike Gore-Bush, the votes are being counted.  No Supremes stopping the count here.

by David Kowalski 2006-07-05 08:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Really! It's exciting...if Obrador wins, it is a win for the US. It's looking scary, though, and he may need to win 50 to 60% of all of the remaining untallied...? Who knows what districts remain to be tallied...?

by ce dit 2006-07-05 08:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Votes have been counted in the following states:

Baja California Sur, Campeche, Coahuila, Hidalgo y Zacatecas

Here are the percentages from states with less than 80% counted:

Colima (28.03%), Durango (59.18 ) Baja California (58.14%), Sonora (59.75%), Querétaro (73.93%), Puebla (75.57%), Nuevo León (76.53%) y Aguascalientes (80.42%).

All other states have at least 80% counted as of 23:27 CST.

Here is the link.

by illinois062006 2006-07-05 08:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Why are the PAN states the last one to report- are they waiting to see what is needed to put their candidate over the top?

Am I too cynical?

by paida 2006-07-05 09:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

But DF, Mexico City, Guerrero, Chiapas, Quintana Roo and other strongholds for Lopez Obrador have not finished reporting.  And Mexico City and the Federal District will push him over the top.

by illinois062006 2006-07-05 09:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

You are not too off base, actually. And no you are not being cynical. Picture if you will a fat, gray-haired Mexican official at the ballot office. He is milking this opportunity. It is one grand show. He is flaunting his power. It's a huge stage for him. By slowing the process, he knows that it will come down to him -- the vote count. Now, imagine each Mexican official thinking this way. The process is even slower. They are taking their cigarette break, making a few calls to order some barbacoa tacos, and taking their time. Count on it. (MASK = Mexican American Satirical Komments) But here I am not being entirely satirical.

by MASK 2006-07-05 10:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

92.45 %

Obrador  36.09
Calderon 35.13

Difference .96%

by knoxvoljj 2006-07-05 08:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

According to El Universal, the difference is now below one percentage point.  Also, You can use the Google translation website as well.  Although, the grammer is horrific as in all translation software but it does help a bit if one doesn't speak Spanish.

by deckard 2006-07-05 08:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Been using it myself

http://translate.google.com/translate_t

by knoxvoljj 2006-07-05 08:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

It's interesting how computers never seem to translate the true meaning as people can.  But I digress from tonight's subject:  the Mexican Presidential election.

by deckard 2006-07-05 08:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

This damn thing has me hooked and it's going to the wire!!!!!

by knoxvoljj 2006-07-05 08:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Interesting

Votes for Lopez Obrador found in the trash in Xalapa, Veracruz.

by illinois062006 2006-07-05 08:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Try that link again, please;...it doesn't work.

by ce dit 2006-07-05 09:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Click on the link, and remove the last slash.

by illinois062006 2006-07-05 09:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Right-o, thanks

by ce dit 2006-07-05 10:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Question:  Are you a true political junkie when you closely follow elections late a night that are not even in your own country? Snark!  

I must admit that I also have caught the bug.  It is a real nail biter. Bush V Gore 2000 South of the Border!  (Except sans Catherine Harris.)

by deckard 2006-07-05 08:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Well I'm fixing to watch the Daily Show/Colbert Report for the second time tonight because of this....

by knoxvoljj 2006-07-05 09:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

First update to come in which didn't shave the margin but only a .1% addition to total

by knoxvoljj 2006-07-05 09:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

If Obrador wins the recount, is that final?  the headline to this story seems pretty sure of it, but the text just seems to indicate that they won't put off the rest of the recount until tomorrow.  How does the Mexican constitution allow for recounts?

by Valatan 2006-07-05 09:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

All ballots will be individually inspected and counted; each one to confirm that yes, indeed, the person voted for candidate A or B. Mexican Law, the constitution, says a leader must be announced no later than September 9! Eeeish. But, of course, they want in the recount done the sooner the better. As an aside, what my family and friends are telling me in Mexico is that the people and the government fear complete unrest and civil disobedience (read: marches and protests) if AMLO does not win. Unconfirmed reports from my family in Mexico City and Monterrey say that in many locations, before the recount, the conservative votes were counted double whammied: so say, he received 10,000 votes, the election officials doubled it to 20,000. AMLO will win.

by MASK 2006-07-05 10:32PM | 0 recs
Messy Process

New York Times describes the challenge process:


The board was to review the tally sheets from each box of ballots. Only in cases where the tally sheets are illegible, where there appear to be mistakes in the count or where there is evidence of tampering could the board recount the ballots.

Visits to a few district offices in the industrial city of Guadalajara, a stronghold of Mr. Calderón's National Action Party, offered a glimpse of the tensions in the process, and the potential for errors and irregularities in the initial tabulation.

Six ballot boxes were opened for a recount in District 8 because of errors on the tally sheets. In every case, the preliminary tallies turned out to be wrong.

In one case, polling workers had miscounted so badly that they gave 100 extra votes to a third candidate, Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, and doubled the 235 votes for Mr. Calderón. Mr. López Obrador's count was not affected.

"They should open them all because in the six they opened, there were problems," said Francisco Mares, a 25-year-old lawyer who represented Mr. López Obrador's party at the district.

by MetaData 2006-07-05 09:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Way I figured it, we needed to have a 0.6% differenceat 95% in. 0.6 was crossed at 94.85%.

Gonna be tight, but I wouldn't hold my breath for us as of right now.  Still, there's hope.

by Trowaman 2006-07-05 10:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

.55 is the margin with 95.06 counted.

by illinois062006 2006-07-05 10:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Ok...my first contribution to any blog, so I apologize if I violate any formatting standards or whatnot.

Here's a translation of the following story:
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/3603 75.html

I did it quickly so it's not perfect, but better than Google or freetranslation.com

Calderon nears AMLO in the vote counting

The difference is now less than one percentage point; the gap closed the in last five hours, since the count passed the 71 percent mark

EL UNIVERSAL.com.mx Edition
El Universal
Mexico City
Wednesday, July 5, 2006

23:30
Felipe Calderon has rapidly gained on Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador en the vote tally that is taking place through a count of the ballot boxes from all 300 Electoral Districts.  AMLO's advantage is now less than one percentage point.

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's advantage has been reduced significantly in the last five hours (since 17:31), since the count passed the 71 percent mark.

As of 23:08 Lopez Obrador has 36.11% of the vote and Felipe Calderon 35.12%, which is to say, a difference of 0.99 percentage points.  The difference was as high as 2.31% at the 71% mark and since then the count has narrowed continually to Lopez Obrador's advantage.

Josefina Vazquez Mota, the PAN presdiential campaign manager, said tonight in a press release that it's just a matter of time before the trend reverses and PAN's victory is known.

[More to come...I thought I'd get this to you right away...]

by DaDaDan 2006-07-05 10:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

AMLO will win. And his victory will help Mexico in general all all people in particular; especially the poor. AMLO knows he must fix whats inside before he can venture out. And, yes, he will examine NAFTA. Bush of course will put on his political face, but he will be disappointed. By this weekend, if not sooner, AMLO will be announced the winner.  

by MASK 2006-07-05 10:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

[Continued from above translation]

She said that the advantage that the "Por Bien de Todos" [trans. "For the Good of All", the PRD coalition] coalition has currently is a result of the fact that the votes were counted faster in the areas where AMLO was strong.

The electoral officials have said since the beginning of the count that the definative results would not be known until all 300 Electoral Districts are counted.

The counts available thus far show an advantage for the presidential candidate of the coalition "For the Good of All," Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, though less of one than he had hours before.

At 23:08, with 90.17% of the ballot boxes counted in the 300 Electoral Districts of the country, the leader of the coalition "For the Good of All" leads.

The results that the Electoral Districts have so far are as follows:

92.17% of ballot boxes counted

Presidential Candidates:
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.11 %
Felipe Calderón: 35.12 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.23 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.70 %
Roberto Campa: 0.96 %

-----------------------------

Wow...they sure repeated themselves a lot...

by DaDaDan 2006-07-05 10:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Thank you for the translation! Good job.

by ce dit 2006-07-05 10:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

The following are finished counting:

Baja California Sur, Campeche, Coahuila, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Nayarit, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, San Luis Potosí, Tamaulipas, Tlaxcala y Zacatecas.

The following states are yet to be completed:

97.74 Jalisco
97.74 Veracruz (Lopez Obrador)
97.45 México (Lopez Obrador)
97.50  Tabasco (Lopez Obrador)
96.12 Distrito Federal (Lopez Obrador)
97.39  Sinaloa
96.94 Chiapas (Lopez Obrador)
48.42 Colima  
68.44 Baja California
68.73 Durango
 
The last three are Calderon strongholds.  Get ready to bite your nails.

by illinois062006 2006-07-05 11:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

97.03% counted, 0.17% lead for Obrador.  This is insanely tense.

by Valatan 2006-07-06 12:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Yes, it is.  and they claim only 15 states have finished counting.  i know 12 of the 15, and i am waiting for the other 3.  I hope Lopez Obrador has representatives in Chiapas and in DF/Mexico holding votes for him.  It seems as if the other party is also holding onto votes in their districts.

by illinois062006 2006-07-06 12:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

97.25, and it's down to a tenth of a percent.

If obrador isn't sitting on a ton of votes, he's in trouble.  

God, this feels like it did watching the Bush/Gore returns in November 2000

by Valatan 2006-07-06 12:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

I really wish I knew where the remaining precincts are located.  Let us hope chiapas, df and mexico city are not yet finished reporting.

by illinois062006 2006-07-06 12:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Yep.  This is getting really scary.

Down to five hundredths of a percent

by Valatan 2006-07-06 12:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Thankfully, there is a cache of votes in DF not to be counted until tomorrow at 10.00am.  And both of the precincts mentioned in the article had punishing margins in favor of Lopez Obrador.  Here is the article;

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/3604 17.html

This will hopefully create the buffer he will need tomorrow when the final precincts are counted.

According to the article, 97% of DF is counted.  This will be to Lopez Obrador's favour tomorrow.  I guess my fingers are crossed.

by illinois062006 2006-07-06 12:52AM | 0 recs
by dede 2006-07-06 12:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Crossover occurred at 4:01CST at 97.70%.  Many DF and Mexico City districts remain to be counted.

by illinois062006 2006-07-06 01:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

You all were awesome with the updates.  Are the DF and Mexico City districts reporting this morning at 10:00a.m.?  The BBC reported thousands being turned away at temporary polling stations b/c they were only provided 750 ballots each?  I haven't seen this allegation from the AMLO camp?  Looks like they learned well from their northern neighbors.

by kentuckydave 2006-07-06 04:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

3:54 AM Thursday July 6, 2006
With 97.64% of votes counted

Felipe Calderon Hinojosa 14,533,823 (35.61%)

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador 14,531,304
(35.60%)

A difference of 2,519 with 3,388 not yet
counted

Lopez Obrador to have a news conference
at 8:30 AM this Thursday to announce
his position on the final results
of the count.

from ElUniversal.com.mx

by tuga 2006-07-06 05:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Calderon wins!

And of course, Obrador does not accept the results.

by musa 2006-07-06 06:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

3:54am Thursday July 6, 2006

Felipe Calderón Hinojosa (Partido Acción Nacional)
14,533,823 (35.61%)

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Coalicion Por el Bien de Todos)
14,531,304 (35.60%)

Roberto Madrazo Pintado (Alianza por México)
8,975,558 (22,26%)

Roberto Campa Cifrián (Partido Nueva Alianza)
386,912 (0.96%)

Patricia Mercado, (Alternativa Socialdemócrata y Campesina)
1,092,221 (2.70%)

3,388 still to be counted

It's expected that the contest
will go to the courts, according
to the paper El Universal.

by tuga 2006-07-06 06:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Finally from CNN

MEXICO CITY, Mexico (CNN) -- By a razor-thin margin, conservative candidate Felipe Calderon took the lead over leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico's contentious presidential election early Thursday.

With nearly 98 percent of the vote counted, Calderon had 35.6 percent, compared to 35.59 percent for Lopez Obrador. A number of other candidates split the remaining vote, but none were within striking distance of the front-runners.

On Sunday, the head of the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) said the election was too close to call, launching Wednesday's official tabulation of the votes.

"It is not possible within the margins established in the quick count to say what party has obtained the highest vote," said Luis Carlos Ugalde, president of IFE.

Ugalde said the counting of the approximately 42 million ballots cast must be completed in all 300 of Mexico's voting districts, which include 133,000 polling stations.

"IFE will then do a count district by district," Ugalde said, "and it will be done without interruption until it is completed and then we will know who was the candidate who obtained the majority of the votes."

The Electoral Council is to convene Sunday to review the results of the process.

Theoretically, an official result could be announced as early as Sunday, though each candidate has until the following Thursday to challenge the result.

The Electoral Tribunal then has until August 23 to review any challenges and until Sept. 6 to name a new president.

Both candidates have claimed victory and have suggested there has been vote manipulation in the razor-thin race.

"We are absolutely sure that we have won the presidential election," Calderon from the conservative National Action Party (PAN), the same party as outgoing President Vicente Fox, told supporters Monday.

"I mean to say that we have won and I am very grateful to the majority of the Mexicans for their support," said Lopez Obrador, a leftist former mayor of Mexico City.

Fox, who was barred by law from running for another six-year term, must hand over power to the winner on December 1.

by tuga 2006-07-06 06:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

And the LA Times

Mexico Conservative Regains Lead; Leftist Rejects Tally
From Associated Press
7:16 AM PDT, July 6, 2006

MEXICO CITY -- Conservative candidate Felipe Calderon was leading in an official vote count by a razor-thin margin today, but his leftist rival said he won't accept the results and will take his demands to court.

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said he was robbed of victory, and he urged his supporters to gather this weekend in Mexico City, stirring fears he would mobilize massive protests that could lead to violence.

"We are going to the Federal Electoral Tribunal with the same demand -- that the votes be counted -- because we cannot accept these results," he said. "We are always going to act in a responsible manner, but at the same time, we have to defend the citizens' will."

With some 99.2 percent of the vote tallies counted after Sunday's election, Calderon of the National Action Party had 35.77 percent compared to 35.42 percent for Lopez Obrador of Democratic Revolution. About 150,000 votes out of more than 41 million cast separated the two.

Once the count is completed, it can be disputed before the country's top electoral court. A winner must be declared by Sept. 6.

THAT'S IT!!!!

by tuga 2006-07-06 06:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

From The Associated Press:

Cota said Democratic Revolution would not recognize the results without a ballot-by-ballot recount. But Ugalde said that was not possible.

"Mexican law is very clear on when a ballot box can be opened: only when there are problems with the vote tallies, when the tally sheet has obviously been changed, or when the box has been tampered with," Ugalde said.

Once the count is complete, the seven-judge Federal Electoral Tribunal will hear any complaints and can overturn elections. By law, it must certify a winner by Sept. 6, and its decision is final.
************

It also states that AMLO will demand a ballot by ballot recount and mobilize millions to march on the streets of Mexico City and throughout the country. Technically, this is not over.

by MASK 2006-07-06 06:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Read the NY Times, it's gotten coverage for the past couple of days. It was even on Wednesday's front page. It irks me when people cry "the main stream media this, the main stream media that," but don't bother to check one of the biggest newspapers in the country.

And why is Calderon winning a good thing? So big business can continue to pillage?

by DianaJ 2006-07-06 11:06AM | 0 recs
Sorry for the hasty post

Oops. misread that part. Yay Obrador (I hope).

I apologize. I often notice people doing what I just wrongly accused you of, so sometimes I have a short fuse on this.

by DianaJ 2006-07-06 11:10AM | 0 recs
This is why you do the debates

Let's not forget that Obrador skipped the debates.  It's a lesson: face the public now, or face their scrutiny later.

Obrador is paying the price for not going to the debates.

Calderon is not a giant disaster.  Let's face it: in America this guy would be one of those pro-business Biden Democrats that we all want to slap.  But, he isn't an American conservative by any stretch.

by jcjcjc 2006-07-06 12:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Lopez Obrador Leads in Recount of Election!

Any Mexican election that doesn't involve the PRI winning is a good result, imo.

by alhill 2006-07-06 01:11PM | 0 recs
Hear, hear -- main thing is no PRI

I agree with alhill -- main thing is that the PRI is still out of there.  That's a big victory. BTW, I had a real chuckle reading about Calderon's campaign promises in the NYT -- one was to "cut income taxes to spur the free market."  Hilarious if you know Mexico (land of the capitalist oligarchs, like Carlos Slim, who pay no taxes and got their fortune essentially courtesey of the old PRI government).  

P.S.  Any news about the deputies election?  One of of the big hurdles for Fox was continuing PRI dominance of the two houses.  Hopefully, that'll change...

by lojo 2006-07-06 01:42PM | 0 recs

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