Connecticut Round-Up Thread

Obviously, this is a very big week in Connecticut. I take it as a reminder that people should not look at the superficial state of the American political scene and think that it cannot be changed. A cursory look at this race in late 2005 would have led anyone to conclude that it was utterly un-winnable. However, a people-powered movement can change everything. Here are some notes form today:
  • The Lamont campaign has a nifty friends, family and neighbors tool that you can use. It is obviously more effective if you live in Connecticut, but it will even allow a Pennsylvania like my self to talk with the small number of Democrats who live in Connecticut who I know personally. Sign up today, no matter where you live.

  • The blogosphere has raised just under $15K for Ned Lamont since yesterday morning via Act Blue. Ned will match very dollar raised by the campaign between now and August 8th, so that translates into $30K. Please, keep giving. You're your donations are clearly making an impact

  • Bill Clinton will support the winner of the Democratic primary:Jay Carson, a spokesman for President Clinton, said that the former president and his wife share the same position. "President Clinton is looking forward to campaigning with Senator Lieberman on Monday and will work hard to help ensure he wins the primary, but he respects the primary process and will support the candidate that wins the Democratic primary." I therefore look forward to him campaigning for Ned Lamont after August 8th. I would also like to see Clinton asked what he thinks about Lieberman's threat to run as an independent.

  • The New Republic reports that the Q-poll isn't the only independent poll showing Lamnt ahead (link):I just wrote a piece for the latest print issue on the Lieberman campaign and I thought I had a bit of a scoop: a recent unpublished independent poll actually had Lieberman trailing Lamont 48 to 44. Of course, the source there is Zenergle, so who knows, this poll may be a fake.

  • People crowing about Lieberman still leading in a three-way race should note that Lamont has actually made aup a lot of ground in three-way polls as well, moving form a 38-point deficit to a 24-point deficit. Further, a defeat for Lieberman in the primary will seriously damage his image to the Connecticut electorate as a whole. IT will also cause many of his endorsements and fundraising to dry up. If I were a Lieberman supporters, I wouldn't' go around crowing about his three-way race poll numbers. The guy has shown a remarkable ability to plummet in any poll no matter what office he is running for.

  • John Aravosis:If Lamont wins the primary, and Lieberman runs as an independent, it's going to tear the Democratic party and the grassroots apart. The blogs will, understandably, spend full time helping Lamont, bashing Lieberman, and flailing the party for not doing enough to help Lamont (or worse, for helping Lieberman). The last thing we need is a major war erupting among Democrats leading into the November elections. I'd like to spend my time, I'd like to see all the progressive blogs devoting their time, to helping defeat Republicans, rather than worrying about some guy who lost his primary and now can't take his toys and go home like a good loser. But that isn't going to happen unless the Democratic party, unless Democratic leaders in the Senate, step up to the plate here.

    The party needs to tell Joe Lieberman, under no uncertain terms, that if he loses his primary he needs to bow out of the race. Otherwise, there will be open war between the blogs, the netroots and the Democratic party for the next four months. Rather than channeling those resources into defeating Republicans, we will be channeling those resources into fighting amongst ourselves. But the Democratic party can avoid this scenario, if it chooses. The Dems need to make it clear to Lieberman that if he loses the primary, he's out of here.
  • Taylor Marsh notes an interesting contrast:Former President Bill Clinton is going to campaign for the man who stabbed him and every other Democrat in the back during the Lewinski imbroglio. That Joe Lieberman aided the impeachment coup should never be forgotten. But that's what grown ups do, let the past be buried where it belongs. Bill's a better man than most, but many of us always knew that, now didn't we? In fact, in the era of George W. Bush, President Bill Clinton has never looked so good. apart from the mature attitude of Bill Clinton and the childish, flailing attitude of Joe Lieberman, there is a second interesting contrast at play here. The comparative response of the progressive movement and Joe Lieberman during the Republican assault on democracy during the Lewinsky bit goes a long way to summing up this entire race for me. Defending Bill Clinton from that attacks was a seminal movement in the revival of the progressive movement, as it directly led to the creation of MoveOn.org. As the progressive movement found its first major revival in defending Bill Clinton, Joe Lieberman stood on the Senate floor and ripped Bill Clinton apart. For the progressive movement to defeat Lieberman in a primary eight years later would be a remarkable second bookend on our developmental phase, and the start of a new phase altogether.
This is an open thread on the Connecticut Senate race.

Tags: Activism, Bill Clinton, CT-Sen, Democrats, Fundraising, Joe Lieberman, Ned Lamont, polls, progressive movement, public opinion, Senate 2006 (all tags)

Comments

8 Comments

Re: Connecticut Round-Up Thread

I want Ned Lamont to win, not just the primary, but in the general election too.  But, if he takes the primary and loses a 3 way race to Lieberman, is that the worst thing for the Democrats?

While I think that Aravosis is right in arguing that an internal war among the Dems leading into this election is a terrible thing, distracting and all the rest, let's say that Joe wins as an independent.  All of a sudden he is no longer the GOP's favorite Democrat.  He will likely continue to vote with the Dems, though maybe not so much (sorry I don't have party loyalty scores at hand), but as an independent he can no longer be used as cover by Republicans to make things appear bi-partisan.  He will be on an island without any backing and the impact of his actions will no longer indict the party at large because all will know he represents a constituency of one as the name of his party attests: Lieberman (CT-Lieberman).

That being said, I want to see Joe take his ball and go home if he loses the primary, but as an independent he will no longer have the power or influence he currently has and will not be able to hurt the Democratic Party as much.

by KazHooker 2006-07-20 10:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Connecticut Round-Up Thread

I wrote a long post on the changing dynamics of the race this morning and it got me thinking about the Big Dog's visit and how it could be a bigger curse than a gift.

A few years ago, I was working on a campaign that received a late visit from Clinton -- and to tell you the truth it was a real pain in the ass. Instead of focusing upon our plan, we ended up going expending a lot of time preparing for the event.

Lieberman's problem isn't a lack of support from the beltway, it is a lack of support from Connecticut voters. So if the Big Dog shows up and it is just him and Joe, then it is going to reinforce the notion that Lieberman has neither local support nor an organization on the ground.

This means Lieberman's weak organization is stuck building a crowd for the event while Lamont's campaign is out persuading and ID'ing voters.

Sure, Lieberman could use some good press, but is it going ultimately come at the expense of being ready for GOTV?

by Bob Brigham 2006-07-20 11:29AM | 0 recs
Running For History

It's a nice, stateman-like pose, but is it really good Politics--in the old fashioned, positive "health of the polis" sense?

Clinton let bygones be bygones when it came to Iran-Contra, and all the other unfinished scandals of the Reagan/Bush Era, too, and look what a fat lot of good that did him.

There are times to forgive, and times to never forget.  Clinton has an unerring ability to get the two confused.  But he talks so well, that most folks just never seem to notice.

by Paul Rosenberg 2006-07-20 11:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Connecticut Round-Up Thread

Hey Chris, I'm curious - would BlogPAC be interested in running a Sunday and/or Monday advertisement on Lieberman's loyalty and values with respect to Clinton?

A FDL'er gave a link to Lieberman's 1998 speech, which provides almost everything we'd need:

In choosing this path, I fear that the President has undercut the efforts of millions of American parents who are naturally trying to instill in our children the value of honesty. As most any mother or father knows, kids have a singular ability to detect double standards. So we can safely assume that it will be that much more difficult to convince our sons and daughters of the importance of telling the truth when the most powerful man in the nation evades it. Many parents I have spoken with in Connecticut confirm this unfortunate consequence.

When American lives, our freedoms, and our international reputation is on the line, we needed a Senator who was willing to say this about President Bush, not excuse away his immoral and disastrous actions. A reminder in the form of a nice advert might remind the voters in state of the Lieb's history, and remind Tuesday's reporters about a compelling angle to the story that they might have otherwise forgotten.

by scvmws 2006-07-20 11:46AM | 0 recs
The details of the poll

...show interesting things.

Most importantly, when you look at the time-series numbers, the Lieberman/Lamont race seems to be the only thing in the state where any registered voters are moving.

Views on Lieberman, Dodd, Rell, Bush, the war, etc, and voting expectations for the Gov race have all been pretty stable for months for Republicans, Independents and Democrats.  And Independent and Republican support for Lieberman is stable.

So there's a particular, focused dynamic going on here: likely Dem voters are in the process of rethinking the Lieberman/Lamont choice.

A lot of them have moved to Lamont, but it's a complicated thing: even tho Lamont is surging, Lieberman's approval among Dems is surprisingly stable.

The results of that rethink obviously aren't done yet, because the numbers are moving pretty far, pretty fast.  Things may keep moving in the same direction, and Lieberman may lose by a lot.  Backtracking is unlikely: once a Dem moves away from Joe, s/he probably won't move back.

And the surrounding stability suggests that I and R voters aren't yet focused on deciding what they'll do in November.  Polling the three-way race at this point isn't capturing anything real.

If Joe gets beaten badly August 8, he may keep his strong Independent and Republican support, and he may keep the Dems who voted for him in the primary.  He may win handily in a three-way race, as the poll suggests now.  He may.  

Or the bottom may fall out.  He and we will have to take a hard look at polling around Labor Day to find out which way things will break.

Best case scenario: he loses the primary, get's tagged a loser, the bottom falls out among Ds and Is, and he decides against the independent run.

But that's just me.

by DFLer 2006-07-20 11:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Connecticut Round-Up Thread

If Leiberman loses, do you think Clinton will pressure him to withdraw his indepedant bid?

by RickM 2006-07-20 12:10PM | 0 recs
even if he did it wouldn't make a difference.

Lieberman is in it for himself.

-C.

by neutron 2006-07-20 12:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Connecticut Round-Up Thread

Kazhooker gets it.

As for  Aravosis he would do to remember that no one, absolutely no one, speaks for the blogosphere but the Dread and Mighty Kos.

John would do himself and a the netroots a big service if he'd think before inserting his foot into his mouth.

The entire blogosphere is much more hung up on Bush's antics than the stench wafting from 'Rape Gurney' Joe's disgusting display of ego.

But ya know!

That's the way humans are.

Messy.

Nasty.

Chaotic.

Crazy.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm! That sounds like most bloggers I know.

Let's help Ned and whatever happens there let's keep after Bush and the failed government the ReThugs have created.

We can do both.

by Pericles 2006-07-20 03:57PM | 0 recs

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