Mexican Elections Thread

This is it. The biggest election since November, 2004. You can follow the returns here (if you have a better website, say so). Post your thoughts in the comments.

Update: Here is a better link. With 20% of the vote in, PAN candidate Calderon (right-wing, Clintonista) leads PRD candidate Obrador (left-wing, possibly pseudo populist) 38.91--35.50. The early results heavily favored PAN, and more recent returns have been pro PRD, so the lead might be temporary. Exit polls indicate too close to call. Ten thousand diebold commenters claim fraud instantly.

Update 2: Here is another link. The slow trend toward Lopex Obrador continues. Will it be enough?

Tags: Foreign Elections (all tags)

Comments

33 Comments

Re: Mexican Elections Thread

http://www.reforma.com/

by tlloydmorgan 2006-07-02 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

Great sites.  Thanks for a terrific service none of the Corrupt Corporate Media are providing.

by traveler 2006-07-02 06:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

So uh, I someone want to explain this election? Who should I be rooting for?

by js noble 2006-07-02 06:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

The LA Times has been covering the race.

MEXICAN ELECTION: Conservative Felipe Calderon and leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador are locked in a tight race. That headline should explain who to root for.

by Joshua Sperati 2006-07-02 06:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

Felipe Calderon is part of the PAN, the National Action Party, whom Vicente Fox is a part of. They are considered a Catholic, Christian, neo-liberal conservative party with the closest ties of the 3 to the Bush admin.

But even worse than Calderon is Madrazo, part of the PRI, the Institutional Revolution Party, who ruled Mexico in almost a dictatorial fashion for ~72. While they claim to be center-left, and indeed, they promise and preach many center-left things, they are perhaps the most corrupt party on the planet, known for rigging elections (one against Obrador Lopez!). They may advocate actually helping out mexicans, but when it comes down to policy, it's all rightwing, beauracratic and corrupt brokerings. It was a good thing that Vicente Fox broke the PRI's strangehold on the government, although if the 1988 elections were free, Mexico would have elected a center-left president, Cardenas, who later created the PRD.

Lastly, Andres Manuel Obrador Lopez (AMLO) is part of the PRD (Party of Democratic Revolution). He was the mayor of Mexico City for 4 years (and 'lost' a rigged election in Tabasco - against Madrazo) and was known for things like Urban development(largely neglected), pensions for the elderly, tough stance on crime, and generally a good leader. He promises to pump money into the economy to spur job growth, start pension programs, to help the impoverish, to review NAFTA and among other things. He promises not to raise taxes (no one actually has), but to crack down on tax evasion and loopholes which is very prevelant among Mexico's rich.

Definetely Root for AMLO. I think everyone should be rooting for him, including Tom Tancredo, as he would be the one most suited to slow down the flow of Illegal Immigration by cracking down on Poverty.

by KainIIIC 2006-07-02 06:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread: Root For:

Root for Lopez Obrador, of the PRD party.

Madrazo is the candidate of PRI, the incredibly corrupt mafia-like party that ruled Mexico for decades.  PRI hasn't changed, so a vote for Madrazo is a vote to go back to mafia-machine rule.

Calderon is the candidate of PAN, a conservative, big-business dominated party.  They've done some good under Fox, but their reform measures have been half-hearted at best (remember the Zapatista revolt in Chiapas?  Fox promised to reform things.  Nothing much changed.  That's PAN.)

Lopez Obrador is the candidate of PRD, a true liberal-reform party.  Founded by Cardinas, the son of a reform PRI president (almost an oxymoron), they're building up, against strong opposition from the entrenched interests of PRI (mafia-machine) and PAN (conservative-big business).  PDR would bring real reform to Mexico, and given the necessity for compromise with the other parties (no party will have a majority in the national assembly), reform would come at a gradual pace that would get Mexican citizens used to a gradually improving life, rather than a life dependant on money telegraphed in from the Estados Unidos del Norte. (Ok, a little oversimplified, but it's hard to get all the nuances of this election into one comments post, much less a diary, much less a long book.  We do the best we can.)

In short: if you're for progressive reform, Lopez Obrador is The Man, and PRD is The Party.

by traveler 2006-07-02 06:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

What's funny as a kid growing up in El Paso, TX, we always had a saying "No puedes ganar el PRI"/ "You can't beat the PRI" when someone is being stubborn or unwilling to move. It's amazing to see a minor party come from nowhere to being a front runner and 2nd (according to Univision right now).  Lopez Obrador has done amazing things in Mexico City and hope he wins.

by mikeapo 2006-07-02 07:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

Fox is on national television in Mexico right this minute urging calm -- official sampling too close to call. Won't have confirmed final results until Wed. This is an extraordinary moment.

I'm on the border in far West Texas, sitting with a former U.S. state department official in Mexico who maintains a keen interest in U.S./Mexico relations. Never seen anything remotely like this.

by Glenn Smith 2006-07-02 08:13PM | 0 recs
Regional & State Results

The Economista website has access to regional results.

You can see that Obrador's support is strongest in the South and Center (Mexico City), while the PAN has more support in the North and the East coast (Monterrey). No single region is dramatically lagging in results reporting, so it is hard to tell which candidate might have votes behind the damn.

by MetaData 2006-07-02 08:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

Obrador has more or less declared himself the winner, though he says he is pledged to abide by the official results. In his speech in Mexico city, he said his campaign believes they will win with about 500,000 votes.

I'm having this translated for me in real time from Mexico. But I watched Obrador, and that is what he said.

by Glenn Smith 2006-07-02 08:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

Calderon is now on Mexican t.v. live declaring that he won. Says he's been ahead from the start, and that they will be ahead at the finish.

by Glenn Smith 2006-07-02 08:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

We are in San Diego watching Mexican TV all night.  My Mexican husband is worried that something fishy will happen- there has been no convincing explaination of why results will take until the 5th to be confirmed.

Lopez Obrador made it very clear that he expects to win.  He has a very strong following behind him.  Calderon said so far the numbers have confirmed that he in fact is the winner- seems that if the numbers change this will make it difficult for him to argue that the numbers are wrong.  

If on Wednesday Calderon is the winner I agree with my hubby that things could get very ugly.  Unlike here where people are incredibly naive (The Sect. of State of Florida actually was the co-chair of the Bush campaign and "independently" decided Bush won? No problem.) Mexicans do not have faith in their institutions- with good reason.  A lot of media organizations may be wishing they would have followed this story a little more closely in the last months. (DUH!)

by paida 2006-07-02 10:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

I watched the results from the early 50% returns to 60% return, and based on that trend, where it went from:

50.79%
Felipe Calderon (PAN) - 37.93%
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD) - 35.83%

to

60.43%

Felipe Calderon (PAN) - 37.62%
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD) - 36.09%

It would be projected out to (at 100% with a ~.05 move per 1%):

Felipe Calderon (PAN) - 36.38%
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD) - 37.13%

It looks like, based on the 10% returns that I saw of Calderon winning by 5%, that PAN must have gotten a big absentee vote bounce? But anyway, assuming that the 50-60% returns match-up with the remaining 40% to return, Obrador will win handily.

by Jerome Armstrong 2006-07-02 10:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

Looks like that return from 50 to 60% is not even, mostly coming from Mexico City, after a further look. Thus not likely to continue, looks like a close Calderon victory. At 72% returned:

Calderon- 37.18
Obrador- 36.29
Madrazo- 19.79

by Jerome Armstrong 2006-07-02 11:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

65% counted: Obrador 36.2% Calderon 37.4%

Rememeber this is by popular vote and not some constructed electoral college.

The strongest state for López Obrador is the Distrito Federal (central Mexico City) and 90% of the precincts have already been counted there.

Other central states that are mildly for Obrador like the Estado de México (suburban Mexico City) will not produce strong enough margins to matter.  

In the very poor southeast states of Oaxaca and Chiapas, Obrador will run up another two hundred thousand vote margin as returns come in slowly (expect these largely rural and technologically unsophisticated states to finish counting last).  In the rich, oil company dominated Tabasco, Calderón's outright calls for driving corruption out of the oil industry and Obrador's insider connections will drive a giant margin for Obrador, probably adding another hundred thousand or two before the night is out.  Madrazo was gobernador of  Tabasco or else Obrador would win 80% there all by himself.  (Is it alright if I don't feel comfortable in bed with the oil guy?  It's a Bush thing.)

And maybe the rural folks in Chiapas and Oaxaca will be even more reformist than city voters.  They have taken the worst of central government abuse over the past generation.

In the northern states where Calderón dominates, there are a lot of precincts still out.  In Jalisco (home of Guadalajara, México's second city) 30% of precincts are still out and Calderón is winning by a dominant margin.  Similar proportions of precincts are still out in Chihuahua (Juarez City) and Baja California (Tijuana City) where Calderón's free market economic program is overwhelmingly popular among all socioeconomic classes.

In the northeastern state of Nuevo Leon (home of Monterrey, México's third city) and in the central region of the Bajio, the Blanquiazules (the PAN -- Calderón's party) are even stronger than in Jalisco and Baja but 80% of the votes are already counted.

I have to predict a widening margin for Calderón from here out.  The small remaining DF vote and southeastern states will not be enough to win this.  When we look back over it, we'll see that the focus on middle class urban lifestyle liberals in the DF was almost but not quite enough to win the presidencia.  Obrador needed an economic platform that could woo a much larger margin among the lower income suburbanites of the Estado de México and the upper income suburbanites of Morelos.  And Obrador needed to reassure businesses in the large cities outside the DF, especially on the border with El Norte (that's us) that he wouldn't cut them off from their markets.

Just writing that makes me feel so ... Clintonian.

by ChetEdModerate 2006-07-02 11:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

Except that the recent updates seem to show a continuation of the tightening, with the margin now ~0.9% of the votes and 25% of the votes left to count.

by RedDan 2006-07-02 11:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

The DF is 97% in now and Obrador still behind by 0.9%.  It should tighten just a sliver more (0.05% or so) before Calderón starts to pull away with votes from Jalisco and the northern states.

Tomorrow when the results from rural Oaxaca, Chiapas, and Guerrero come in they will boost the Perredista (the PRD party of López Obrador) vote but it will be too little too late to overcome Calderón's margin from late tonight.  (Acapulco City in Guerrero is strongly for López Obrador but mostly already counted.)

by ChetEdModerate 2006-07-02 11:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

Simple projections (a blunt instrument) based on the recent results and changes show AMLO catching up when 91% of the vote is counted.

Your information regarding the location of the tallied and still outstanding votes is, of course, going to modify the "crude" (and I mean very crude) straight line projection....

Recent results seem to show more votes coming from the PAN and going to PRI candidate. BOTH PAN and PRD are losing votes to PRI in the current districts being tallied...with PAN losing more than PRD.

by RedDan 2006-07-02 11:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

The observation made prior, that PRI was taking more vites from PAN than from PRD, has just reversed itself.

Now PRI seems to be taking more votes from PRD than from PAN and the margin has widened to 0.97% as you suggested might happen.

by RedDan 2006-07-03 12:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

The Priistas will pick up a lot of votes in the rural southeastern states, but PRI votes won't make any difference in the end.  Madrazo isn't a viable candidates;  he was too involved with state oil money to lead a new honest PRI, though ten years ago he was a great thorn in the side of the dominant party.

Vote counting will now concentrate on PAN areas and Calderón will pull two or three percentage points ahead in the next few hours.

Traditionally the very last precincts to report will be the poor rural districts of the southeastern states where López Obrador will win by a large margin over Calderón (and PRI will also do very well) but that will be enough to make up at most one percent, probably less.

by ChetEdModerate 2006-07-03 12:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

With 78% counted the margin is 0.97%

Where are the remaining districts again?

And what relative proportion of the remaining votes reside in the various districts?

Is there a groovy map?

Regardless, it appears that it is going to be extremely tight.

by RedDan 2006-07-03 12:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

With 78.5% the margin is 1.01% for Calderón.  The DF vote has stopped coming in.

About 20-25% of Méxicans live in the Mexico City metro area.  That is in the Distrito Federal (central Mexico City), the Estado de México (north suburban, poor and middle class), Tlaxcala (the smallest by far of the metro states), and Morelos (middle class and wealthy suburbs).  These states will all turn out for Obrador, but only the DF will be 2.5-1 or 3-1 for Obrador.  Turnout in these states is already 95% done.

The central and northern cities of Guadalajara, Monterrey, Chihuahua, Juarez, and Tijuana are strongly pro-PAN and will support Calderón.  Look at turnout in Jalisco, Nuevo Leon, Chihuahua, and Baja California respectively to see their results.  The northwestern cities hover around 70-80% counted.  The Bajio cities support PAN also (and are the home of Vicente Fox and his organization) and are about 75% counted.  The northeastern cities like Monterrey are about 90% done.  Together with their surrounding states these areas make up just slightly more than the Mexico City area in population.

The largest proportion of vote still out will be in rural Chiapas, Guerrero, and Oaxaca.  There are lots of very poor villages and considerable populations that don't speak any Spanish.  It can take a long time for these rural votes to come in.  I woudn't hold my breath even Monday night.  It looks like 65% of the precincts are reporting in Oaxaca and 55% in Chiapas.  In Guerrero the city of Acapulco dominates and 81% is in but rural areas will still take a long time.  These states will not deliver the kind of vote totals the cities do but they will go 2-1 for AMLO.

by ChetEdModerate 2006-07-03 12:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

So, if the largest proportion of the vote still out is in the rural, poor areas that you think will go for AMLO by 2 to 1....

What percent margin is "safe" for Calderon once the North and Central areas are counted?

Right now, with 80.93% counted, the margin is 1.08 for Calderon...

Is that an insurmountable lead? What is?

by RedDan 2006-07-03 12:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

Safe would be somewhere between 500,000 to 800,000 votes lead from everywhere but remaining precincts in Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas for Calderón.  Below 400,000 would be excellent chances for AMLO.

by ChetEdModerate 2006-07-03 12:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

So, the current margin stands at 365,646 votes, corresponding to a 1.1% difference.

For Calderon to be unstoppable, he must gain between 150 and 200 thousand votes.

by RedDan 2006-07-03 12:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

Calderón isn't accumulating quite the margins I expected in the final northern precincts, but he looks to have more than enough to win.  

Unless we have very big turnout surprises in the poor rural south tommorrow.

Madrazo is doing bettwr now but only because his toughest region came in first.  The capital city has been opposed to the ruling party ever since the end of the Lazaró Cardenas administration of the 1930s.  The PRI had to take away home rule and appoint mayors without elections for generations.  (It was reformist presidente Zedillo who reversed this in 1996 or so and paved the way for gobernador AMLO.)

by ChetEdModerate 2006-07-03 01:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

85% in, 1.23% margin, 420K vote differential...

tight tight tight

by RedDan 2006-07-03 01:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

Back down to 1.17% margin with 410 votes separating...

89% reporting.

by RedDan 2006-07-03 02:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

AMLO has clawed back 100,000 votes in the rural southern precincts but there are still more precincts to count in Tijuana and Guadalajara while Calderón has a 400k lead.

I wonder how legitimate people will see such a close victory by either side (still probably Calderón) as being.  There has been vote fraud, of course, but IFE as an independent election agency  has a good reputation for reducing vote fraud.

And since most of the fraud and coercion will have supported Madrazo, it might not be important at all.

by ChetEdModerate 2006-07-03 03:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

Getting even tighter: 1.09% margin, 400K votes separating, and 91.6% reporting.

If it comes down to the late reporting rural and poor districts, this is going to be really, really close - less than 1% definitely and possible less than 0.5% difference.

The real question is, as you say, whether either side will accept a loss this close.

Another issue is what will happen to the winner, with a "mandate" of less than 40% of the vote??

Could be ugly. Let's hope it's not.

by RedDan 2006-07-03 03:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Mexican Elections Thread

In some poor rural precincts there is still a lot of vote to come in from the southeast.  In Ocosingo (Chiapas) where I meet a lot of people who don't get enough services in their towns to have a phone line or even electricity only a few percent of the vote is counted.

by ChetEdModerate 2006-07-02 11:43PM | 0 recs
Greg Palast claimed fraud

three days ago.

(I'm just sayin'.)

by catastrophile 2006-07-03 01:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Greg Palast claimed fraud

There are more and more stories coming out about people not being able to vote in Mexico City.  Once a voting place ran out of ballots they were not able to get more.

2 of my husband's cousins were not able to vote in D.F.  It will be interesting to see exactly which neighborhoods ran out of ballots....

by paida 2006-07-03 07:38AM | 0 recs

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