Lieberman Spinners and the Moveon Primary

David NYC is right on the money.  Lieberman's people are predicting a 30-35% delegate grab by Ned Lamont.  This is a clear expectations raising game.  I would be surprised if Lamont gets that much, but if he does, boy is Lieberman in trouble.  My guess is that Lamont will get between 5-15%.  The number isn't important because the Lamont campaign has always bet on getting signatures rather than delegates for obvious strategic reasons (the more voter contacts the better).

These party conventions are completely insider events.  The votes are basically rigged, with chits cashed before the convention starts.  Lamont isn't an elected official, so he doesn't have a great shot at getting a lot of delegates.  Or to put it another way, that he's able to get delegates at all is proof of just how badly Lieberman has screwed up.  And Lieberman keeps making political mistakes, apparently going back on his word to Reid and Schumer by failing to rule out running as an Independent.  I'm not 100% sure that the reporter is quoting Lieberman after he made the promise to Reid, but it does look that way.  I'd put a call in to the Lieberman office to find out, but he doesn't talk to bloggers.

The convention, which I'll be attending, is going to be fun.  What I'm really interested in is the Moveon primary, which takes place next week.  That's when insiders aren't in control, and when Lieberman can't call chits and use his formidable political clout.  That's next week.

It's going to be a fun and bumpy ride.

Tags: Joe Lieberman, MoveOn, Ned Lamont (all tags)

Comments

13 Comments

Re: Lieberman Spinners and the Moveon Primary

This is a truly historic event, like LBJ facing stiff oppositon in '68.  Its pretty rare that an incumbent with the time and spotlight of Lieberman faces such strong opposition from within his party, while enjoying broad support in the GOP.

by Max Friedman 2006-05-18 04:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Lieberman Spinners

Honestly, what reason do we have to believe that you're not driving down expectations? Everybody does it.

by bluenc 2006-05-18 04:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Lieberman Spinners

I honestly don't have a very good idea what's going to happen, but I'm also not an official representative of a campaign.  

by Matt Stoller 2006-05-18 06:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Lieberman Spinners and the Moveon Primary

I'll see you there Matt.

by ATalbot 2006-05-18 04:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Lieberman Spinners and the Moveon Primary

Absolutely

by Matt Stoller 2006-05-18 06:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Lieberman Spinners and the Moveon Primary

I'm still for Joe...

by kydem 2006-05-18 05:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Lieberman Spinners and the Moveon Primary

Me too! I love a good cup of Joe while I discuss what a schmuck that Lieberman guy is.

by ElitistJohn 2006-05-18 07:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Lieberman Spinners and the Moveon Primary

Matt, simply citing yourself is not a source.  There was never any credible report that Joe made a deal with Reid to stay in the Democratic party in exchange for his endorsement.

You only alleged that a deal was made.  Why?  Because you insisted that Joe was going to jump ship any day now.  So when it didn't happen, you had to come up with another story to explain why you were wrong.

You could have just said "Gee, maybe Joe wont jump, maybe I was a bit ahead of myself there."  You know, like you did when you admitted that the rumormongering over Karl Rove's "iminent indictment" was a mistake?

by JPhurst 2006-05-18 07:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Lieberman Spinners and the Moveon Primary

Matt, simply citing yourself is not a source.  There was never any credible report that Joe made a deal with Reid to stay in the Democratic party in exchange for his endorsement.

Once again, a source close to Reid told me that this was the case.  He could have been wrong.  I don't know.  I forwarded him the Courant article and he's looking into it.

You are free to question my motives, that's fine.  I'm just being honest with you.

by Matt Stoller 2006-05-19 04:54AM | 0 recs
My town endorsed Lamont

We endorsed Lamont tonight at out DTC meeting. Unanimously. I don't want to drive up expectations for Friday Night but I'm a MoveOn guy and I am a party member. Matt you may know a thing or two about the delegate count that I don't know, but nobody rigged our vote. Or the votes of ALL the surrounding towns out here in the "Quiet Corner" of NE CT. Get ready for the quiet corner to roar tomorrow night when we all vote for Ned Lamont. And nobody bought our votes or gave us any chits. We are the real Democrats on the ground who fight for our party election after election.

by JJonMyDD 2006-05-18 08:35PM | 0 recs
Re: My town endorsed Lamont

I know almost nothing about the delegate count.  Hopefully I'll see you at the convention.

by Matt Stoller 2006-05-19 04:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Lieberman Spinners and the Moveon Primary

Lamont would be smart not to write off this convention.  Yes, these are party insiders, but they're also the party's biggest activists.  These are the people who'll be setting up phone banks, canvassing, and doing GOTV.  I hope Ned is devoting time to schmoze and lobby these folks.

by Dick Tuck 2006-05-19 01:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Lieberman Spinners and the Moveon Primary

I dunno. My experience with party conventions (albeit in CO not CT) tells me that Lamont will probably do very well. These are party activists, remember, not average Joe blue collar Dems who are less likely to be interested in intraparty fights.

You guys are missing the big story of the day on Lamont-Lieberman, though, and that's money. Lamont released his financials (wow!) and in the same story it was noted that he raised a paltry $60k in April, plus $120k from his wallet. He had $350k on hand end of March, so combined with his burn rate and the placement of those ads this weekend I'd suggest he probably has less on hand now than he had March 31. There is NO WAY he can win this race unless he has the bucks to go on TV around mid-July. And right now, he has enough to go on for a couple days max.

When's he going to dump the $2-3 million of his own fortune that he needs to be competitive?

by ColoDem 2006-05-19 07:27AM | 0 recs

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