Lieberman Spinners and the Moveon Primary
by Matt Stoller, Thu May 18, 2006 at 03:49:42 PM EDT
David NYC is right on the money. Lieberman's people are predicting a 30-35% delegate grab by Ned Lamont. This is a clear expectations raising game. I would be surprised if Lamont gets that much, but if he does, boy is Lieberman in trouble. My guess is that Lamont will get between 5-15%. The number isn't important because the Lamont campaign has always bet on getting signatures rather than delegates for obvious strategic reasons (the more voter contacts the better).
These party conventions are completely insider events. The votes are basically rigged, with chits cashed before the convention starts. Lamont isn't an elected official, so he doesn't have a great shot at getting a lot of delegates. Or to put it another way, that he's able to get delegates at all is proof of just how badly Lieberman has screwed up. And Lieberman keeps making political mistakes, apparently going back on his word to Reid and Schumer by failing to rule out running as an Independent. I'm not 100% sure that the reporter is quoting Lieberman after he made the promise to Reid, but it does look that way. I'd put a call in to the Lieberman office to find out, but he doesn't talk to bloggers.
The convention, which I'll be attending, is going to be fun. What I'm really interested in is the Moveon primary, which takes place next week. That's when insiders aren't in control, and when Lieberman can't call chits and use his formidable political clout. That's next week.
It's going to be a fun and bumpy ride.