The Path Forward for Lieberman
by Matt Stoller, Sun Apr 09, 2006 at 07:24:09 PM EDT
Lieberman is considering running as an independent. Because of CT election law, it will be very hard for Lieberman to compete in the primary and get on the ballot as an independent. The likeliest path forward for him is to test his strength at the convention, and based on that decide whether to run as a D or an I. From his perspective, he probably has a better chance in the general against Lamont than he does in the primary, so dropping out and running as an independent might be the most rational move, though it would be costly. So watch the convention carefully.
If Lieberman drops out of the primary to run as an independent, it's going to be very strange for a lot of stakeholders. First of all, the DSCC and Senate Democrats will be thrust into some very awkward positions. Does Lieberman keep his committee assignments? Does the DSCC come in on Ned Lamont's behalf? These are questions they should be considering.
And then there's the CT Democratic Party itself. They will lose Lieberman's money for the coordinated campaign, and Democrats like Dianne Farrell have already endorsed Joe. Would they pull the endorsements? I'm really tired so I haven't thought this through, but I would get ready for some weird political moves.
Watch the convention and Ned's delegate strength. And realize that for Joe, who is perceived as popular in CT, running as an independent isn't just a last resort; it's actually a pretty rational move.
Update: Riehl World View is encouraging Lieberman to join the Republican Party.