Second Texas Primary Results Thread

First Results Thread
Official Returns
Swing State Project

Most Recent Updates At The Top
  • It's over. The early voting totals were terrible. Cuellar pulled 12,772 (57.98%) of the early vote. Ciro got 7,579 (34.40%), and Morales got 1,678 (7.62%). This thing was lost before today even began.

  • OK, this is probably it. The early voting from Webb came in solid for Cuellar. I currently project Cuellar at 54.33%. Current vote totals are Cuellar 16,705 (48.76%), Ciro 15,073 (44.00%), Morales 2,480 (7.24%). Now it is just about hoping that Cuellar somehow stays below 50%.

  • With 190 precincts in, here is a county by county comparison of Cuellar's percentage of the vote in 2006 compared to 2006:
    Atascosa: +15.7% (only early voting returns)
    Bexar: +0.1% (almost done)
    Comal: +5.4% (almost done)
    Frio: +9.1% (done)
    Guadalupe: +7.1% (done)
    Hays: -3.7% (done)
    LaSalle: +4.2% (only early voting returns)
    McMullen: +19.8% (done)
    Wilson: +5.9% (half done)
    Zapata: +9.1% (only early voting returns)

    Is there hope? A little bit, but not much. We could get a turnaround in the counties with onyl early voting. Combine that with low turnout in Webb and a swing away from Cuellar in Webb, and then we have something. But the chances aren't great.

  • With almost everything outside of Webb, Atacosa, LaSalle and Zapata counties reporting, here are the results: Ciro 14,557 (58.71%), Cuellar: 8,542 (34.45%), Morales: 1,685 (6.82%). Projection: Cuellar 53.50%.

  • Some random notes: Cuellar is up from his 2004 % in every county except Hayes. This includes several non-Cuellar controlled areas. Atacossa and Zapata, which account from 1.6% of Cuellar's gain in my projection, have only reported early voting so far. Frio, Hays, Guadalupe, and McMullen counties are done reporting. Cuellar added 0.9% to his district-wide 2004 % in those four counties. Bexar is nearly done reporting. Cuellar added 0.1% to his district-wide 2004 % in that county. Bexar is is Ciro's stronghold.

  • With 86% (or thereabouts) of the non-Webb county vote in the situation is as follows: Ciro 13,216 (57.61%), Cuellar: 8,127 (35.41%), Morales: 1,596 (6.96%). Projection: Cuellar 53.62%. Not enough to make this up outside of Webb anymore.

  • Check this out:U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez is expected to try to beef up his legal case against Democratic nominee Henry Cuellar today, introducing an amended lawsuit that alleges more than 500 people who voted in the primary here are registered at vacant addresses or at homes where they do not live.(...)

    The San Antonio Express-News visited some of the residences in question Monday based on information provided by Rodriguez's attorney, Buck Wood.

    In one case, a primary voter with the same name as Cuellar's campaign manager, Colin Strother, is registered as living with Cuellar's parents in central Laredo.
    The Cuellars, in an interview with a reporter Monday, said no one named Strother lives there.

    Told of the allegation, Cuellar spokesman T.J. Connolly said that when Strother agreed to work on Cuellar's campaign, he was given a salary and the option to live in a rental property at Cuellar's parents' home.

    Strother reportedly registered and voted at that address, although he has been living with his wife in another location outside of District 28 as part of her employment compensation. The two have been planning to relocate to the Cuellar residence, but furor over the campaign has kept them from doing so, Connolly said. So while we are waiting, and just in case anyone was wondering about Webb County, keep in mind that Cuellar's campaign manager voted for him illegally in 2004.

  • With 84% (or thereabouts) of the non-Webb county vote in the situation is as follows: Ciro 12,495 (56.85%), Cuellar: 7,939 (36.12%), Morales: 1,544 (7.03%). Projection: Cuellar 53.64%. SSP just posted the following:The Rodriguez campaign has a team headed down to Webb County including campaign counsel and representatives. While this is happening Ciro is addressing the hundreds of supporters who have gathered at our headquarters on the South Side of San Antonio. A supporter just called in as well and asked if the banks in Laredo were closed.

    This is so much like OH-02 it is scary. This has fraud attempt written all over it. Notice that I say "attempt." Trying to committ fraud and succeeding are different things. Wanting to committ fraud and doing it are different things. Committing fraud and having it change who won an election are not always the same thing. I don't know what is going on, but it sure looks like they at least attempted something in Webb.

  • With 77% (or thereabouts) of the non-Webb county vote in the situation is as follows: Ciro 11,269 (56.40%), Cuellar: 7,304 (36.55%), Morales: 1,408 (7.05%). Projection: Cuellar 53.28%. Not a single word from Webb County yet. Most of Cuellar's gain in my projections are coming from Frio, Zapata, and Atascosa counties.

  • What sort of swing do we need from Webb? A big one--like ten or eleven points. We need Cuellar to only get around 73% of the vote there or less to force a runoff.

  • This is going bad. We are going to need Morales to take away a lot of votes from Cuellar in Webb County. Of course, Webb County, Cuellar's stronghold, still hasn't reported yet due to problems with touchscreen machines, or something. I'm really starting to get pissed off about that.

  • With nearly half of the vote counted, current totals: Ciro 10,041 (55.41%) -- Cuellar 6,767 (37.34%) -- Morales 1,313 (7.25%). Current Overall Projection: Cuellar 53.26%.

  • With 36% of the vote counted, current totals: Ciro 8,585 (58.87%) -- Cuellar 5,016 (34.39%) -- Morales 983 (6.74%). Current Overall Projection: Cuellar 52.47%. We need to start pulling this back very soon.

  • In case you are wondering why I am still porjecting Cuellar ahead despite Ciro's robust lead in the actual vote count, Webb County, which accounted for over 31% of the vote in 2004, has not reported a single vote yet. And in 2004, it went 84-16 for Cuellar.

  • The first results from today's voting come from Bexar County, and they are good for Ciro. That is the sort of good sign we needed. Current Overall Projection: Cuellar 51.70% I would like to have pulled back more, but a good sign none the less.

  • Current totals: Ciro 6,674 (63.38%) -- Cuellar 3,051 (28.97%) -- Morales 805 (7.64%). Current Overall Projection: Cuellar 51.73%.

Tags: election results (all tags)

Comments

88 Comments

Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Is this good or bad anyone?

by Liberal 2006-03-07 05:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread
Look at my projection. Its not good. But it remains early and incomplete.
by Chris Bowers 2006-03-07 05:01PM | 0 recs
But, Are Not ALL of these Early Votes

to which we have nothing to compare?  We don't know how early voters break.

by Arthurkc 2006-03-07 05:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

I dunno. You would think Ciro being ahead more than 2 to 1 so far would be good news. Not sure though.

by Epitome23 2006-03-07 05:02PM | 0 recs
Webb County, Texas

Does anyone remember Colin Strother? He was the one who dismissed the netroots effort against Cuellar was a "one-day story."

In the 2004 election, Mr. Strother voted in Webb County, which became a scandal.

U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez is expected to try to beef up his legal case against Democratic nominee Henry Cuellar today, introducing an amended lawsuit that alleges more than 500 people who voted in the primary here are registered at vacant addresses or at homes where they do not live. [...]

In one case, a primary voter with the same name as Cuellar's campaign manager, Colin Strother, is registered as living with Cuellar's parents in central Laredo.

The Cuellars, in an interview with a reporter Monday, said no one named Strother lives there.

Told of the allegation, Cuellar spokesman T.J. Connolly said that when Strother agreed to work on Cuellar's campaign, he was given a salary and the option to live in a rental property at Cuellar's parents' home.

Strother reportedly registered and voted at that address, although he has been living with his wife in another location outside of District 28 as part of her employment compensation. The two have been planning to relocate to the Cuellar residence, but furor over the campaign has kept them from doing so, Connolly said.

This wasn't the only problem in Webb County, the Laredo Times reports:

After the stunning Tuesday developments in the recount of Democratic primary ballots in Webb and Zapata counties, Laredoan Henry Cuellar increased his lead Wednesday by another four votes over Congressman Ciro Rodriguez of San Antonio. [...]

While Webb officials found an additional 115 ballots on their hands, Cuellar picked up 177 extra votes, and Rodriguez picked up none.

That morning, in neighboring Zapata, election officials found an additional 304 votes, not ballots, during its recount. This allowed Cuellar to pick up an extra 237 votes, while Rodriguez picked up 67.

And this year's race has seen major problems in early voting in Webb County. Just look at the Centenarians:

An abnormally high number of voters in Webb County aged 90 years or older prompted an attorney for the Ciro Rodriguez congressional campaign to request an investigation by the Texas Secretary of State. During the first 4 days of early voting, 93 votes were cast by people 90 or over and 51 were 100 or older.

In a message addressed to Kim Thol, Programs Specialist for the Elections Division of the Secretary of State, Luis Vera requested "an immediate appointment for an inspector for Webb County." Vera reminded Thol, "Webb County has a long history of allegations of voter fraud." In the 2004 primary election, Vera added, "the fraud made national news." He was referring to the controversial election between Henry Cuellar and Rodriguez in which ballots, "discovered" days after the polls closed, eventually swung the election to Cuellar by a narrow 58 votes.

By percentage of population = 268% early turnout:

Fifty-one centenarians - senior citizens that have made it to age 100 - have already voted in the first week of early voting in Webb County. Joining the centenarians at the polls were 93 seniors over age 90. At least that is what an attorney for a congressional candidate claims has happened in this district that stretches the length of South Texas from San Antonio to Mexico. [...]

Editor's Note: This would not be the first occasion in which citizens residing in South Texas cemeteries have been motivated to cast their ballots.

It is estimated there are 50,000 centenarians in the U.S. - about one of every 10,000 people. There are about 193,000 residents of Webb County, which would indicate a centenarian population of about 19.

by blogswarm 2006-03-07 05:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Chris:

     You might want to consider recording your projected result each time you enter a new set of data.  You could then graph the projected result vs. % of the vote recorded (or number of precincts reporting) until the projected result eventually met up with the actual result at 100% reporting.  It might be interesting to see how much the projected result oscillates as results come in, as well as whether it trended up or down until it intersected with the final result.  

by Mose 2006-03-07 05:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread
For what its worht, almost the entire Cuellar lead in my porjection is coming from Atascosa County. Something bad happened there.
by Chris Bowers 2006-03-07 05:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

You're basing your projections on a county with 804 votes reported? Quick glance to me looks like it's all about Bexar and Webb.

by attorney at arms 2006-03-07 05:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

With 34 percent of the vote, according to AP:

Rodriguez, Ciro Dem 7,754 64.72
 Cuellar, Henry (i) Dem 3,351 27.97
 Morales, Victor Dem 875 7.30

Sounds pretty good so far.

by ATL Dem 2006-03-07 05:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread
Link?
by Chris Bowers 2006-03-07 05:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

http://www.ksat.com/politics/7788344/det ail.html

by Teaser 2006-03-07 05:08PM | 0 recs
Also

Also on DallasNews.com

by ATL Dem 2006-03-07 05:09PM | 0 recs
by dwbh 2006-03-07 05:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

So Ciro gained about 1100 votes to Cuellar's 300. We couldn't have gotten any worse, right?

by dwbh 2006-03-07 05:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread
We need to know where it came from before drawing that conclusion.
by Chris Bowers 2006-03-07 05:08PM | 0 recs
by ATL Dem 2006-03-07 05:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Chris,

You might want to reconsider your projections...

With 34% of the vote counted Rodriguez has a 37% lead. I understand that these are coming from counties friendly to him, but in all my years of following elections (16 years) - i've never seen a county swing an election by that much with 34% reporting.

by JackBourassa 2006-03-07 05:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread
Webb County, which accounted for over 31% of the vote in 2004, has not reported a single vote yet. And in 2004, it went 84-16 for Cuellar.
by Chris Bowers 2006-03-07 05:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

But if Webb county only makes up 31%, that means that Cuellar has to win nearly 100% and has to win all other counties, to pull even doesn't it?

by JackBourassa 2006-03-07 05:22PM | 0 recs
Yeah, but...

...the 66% still out there includes the county with the largest turnout, which went 80% for Cuellar in '04. Mathematically, it's entirely possible that Cuellar jumps in front after these results come in.

by dwbh 2006-03-07 05:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Yeah, but...

Alright I stand corrected.

I'll keep staying positive though.

by JackBourassa 2006-03-07 05:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Webb hasn't came in with anything yet and those Ciro gains are from Bexar. Webb gave Cuellar a 10K plurality last time...

by ben114 2006-03-07 05:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread
Chris-
Does your model go down to precint level or just county?  With only one precint reporting from Acosta, it's possible that this is one of the Acosta precints Cuellar did best in last time around.  This may account for the large swing so far.
kyle
by kylebrown 2006-03-07 05:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread
I wish it included precinct. But its just county.
by Chris Bowers 2006-03-07 05:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Hey can someone tell me if Chris Bell is one of the good guys in Texas or is he a DINO?

by JackBourassa 2006-03-07 05:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread
He filed the ethics complaint against DeLay.
by Chris Bowers 2006-03-07 05:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

I know you're supposed to be cuatious, but it seems like Ciro is doing pretty well.

by Epitome23 2006-03-07 05:18PM | 0 recs
Another update
U.S. House, District 28 In: 41%
Ciro Rodriguez, D 7,928 64.2%
Victor Morales, D 904 7.3%
Henry Cuellar, D (I) 3,509 28.4%
by dwbh 2006-03-07 05:19PM | 0 recs
by dwbh 2006-03-07 05:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Another update

Call me crazy...

But I think these numbers are looking really good.

by JackBourassa 2006-03-07 05:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Chris Bell is one of the good guys. For a state like Texas anyway.

DINO or not, he has as much chance of winning the Governor's race in Texas Rick Santorum being enorsed by NARAL.

by Epitome23 2006-03-07 05:20PM | 0 recs
Yet another update!

Same link as above...

U.S. House, District 28 In: 24%
Ciro Rodriguez, D 9,696 60.3%
Victor Morales, D 1,051 6.5%
Henry Cuellar, D (I) 5,320 33.1%

Ciro's lead narrowed a bit. I think the "24% in" is obviously a typo.

by dwbh 2006-03-07 05:23PM | 0 recs
Thanks Chris

"In case you are wondering..."

I was wondering. Now I can just go back to worry.

by Citizen80203 2006-03-07 05:23PM | 0 recs
A few more votes in...
Ciro Rodriguez, D 9,914 60.2%
Victor Morales, D 1,068 6.5%
Henry Cuellar, D (I) 5,486 33.3%
by dwbh 2006-03-07 05:31PM | 0 recs
My thoughts

I think the hope is that Webb county votes less for its homeboy since he hasn't voted in their interest.  It would also make sense that Cuellar made gains in the rest of the district since he is the incumbent. That said I think the entire election rides on the Webb results.

by descartes 2006-03-07 05:31PM | 0 recs
Home field

How long are they going to hold the Webb Co. results up their sleeve? Fuckers are counting votes across the district before releasing.

by Citizen80203 2006-03-07 05:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Chris,

Does your model account for the overall decreased voter turnout?  Turnout appears down across the district, which means that even an 85% blowout in Webb county might not carry as much "oomph" as last year.

by curiousgeorge 2006-03-07 05:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

am i reading this right?  21,000 early democratic primary votes were cast in webb county?

http://www.webbcountytx.gov/Elections/PD F/030706%20-%20EV%20Totals%20-%20Demo.pd f

by hoose 2006-03-07 05:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

That's what I see.

I swear to fucking god, there have better not been "company techs" hanging out at the Webb County polls today.

by Citizen80203 2006-03-07 06:01PM | 0 recs
Deeper

I'd like to go deeper and note that the problem isn't simply Webb Co. expected returns.  Ciro is polling lower in EVERY county than he did in '04, and Cuellar is polling higher in every county except 1 than he did in '04.  My projection with 57.6% reporting is Cuellar: 56.2%, based on comparison of all counties from '04.

by jrock 2006-03-07 05:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Deeper

Yes. In a way that makes this all even more frustrating. Being mad at what looks very suspicious in Webb and accepting that things just aren't working out anywhere for Ciro are not two things that are easy to hold in the mind at the same time.

by Mullibok 2006-03-07 06:11PM | 0 recs
Good point

If true, then we might have lost it in the ground war. This hold back in Webb Co. smells funny though.

by Citizen80203 2006-03-07 06:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Here's what I got...

143/276 reporting. (52%)

56% to 36% for Ciro.

Of the 133 precints yet to report:

30 are from Webb (Cuellar strong hold)
23 are from Atascosa (Cuellar strong hold)
7 are from Zapata (Cuellar strong hold)

21 are from Bexar (Ciro strong hold)
21 are from Guadalupe (Ciro strong hold)
24 are from Wilson County (Ciro strong hold)

The others are a mixed bag - supporting either/or.

Which means of those votes still left to come in 66 precints are from Ciro strongholds to only 60 for Cuellar.

And Cuellar still has to make up a 20% deficit.

by JackBourassa 2006-03-07 05:56PM | 0 recs
Fresh update

Ciro Rodriguez, D 12,116 57.3%
Victor Morales, D 1,470 7.0%
Henry Cuellar, D (I) 7,544 35.7%

I don't like watching Ciro's lead get smaller and smaller. At least Morales seems to be catching up enough to maybe force a runoff.

by dwbh 2006-03-07 05:56PM | 0 recs
Webb county voting

Let's put some real numbers on this, based on Chris's comments above.  If Webb Co is 30% of the voter population and Cuellar gets 85% of the votes from the county, and 50000 votes are cast, then Ciro needs to be up by 12750 votes elsewhere.  

(50000*30%*85%)

That's easier for me to think about than 73% of Webb Co if we are not going to get Webb reports before I go to bed here in the Atlantic time zone.  Yawn.

by The lurking ecologist 2006-03-07 06:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Webb county voting

Actually, Ciro and Morales TOGETHER must have a lead (I doubt as large as you estimate) to offset the Wanker in Webb. If the Wanker gets 49.9 percent, we're on to Round 2.

by ATL Dem 2006-03-07 06:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Webb county voting

True enough, I forgot about the runoff.  Seems that turnout is either lower, or the 50,000 estimate is too high.  If voter turnout by precinct is accurately estimated by the current vote totals from 189 precincts, the estimate is down to a 9226 vote lead for Ciro and Morales together to force a run off.

by The lurking ecologist 2006-03-07 06:39PM | 0 recs
Here we go again ...

It can't be that our side blows at getting the vote out, or that wingers are more dependable voters ... it MUST be that the other side cheated.  After all, wasn't President Kerry put in office with that "incumbent under 50 percent in the polls" rule and all the other bullshit we tell ourselves?  Say hello to a (very) small taste of what it's gonna feel like when "No Chance" Santorum cruises back in and Lieberman beats Lamont by about 70-30.  I should have saved my fifty bucks for Ciro and went to Atlantic City, where suckers win at least once in a while.  Sorry to be bitter; but sometimes I hate this country.  Bush-kissers still rule, I guess.

by tuffie 2006-03-07 06:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Here we go again ...

Hey, if you want a guaranteed return on your money, put it in a bank.

I didn't give much to theRodriguez campaign, in absolute terms, but enough so that paying the bills was dicey around here for a while -- and you don't hear me complaining about money misallocated, do you?

by Ed Fitzgerald 2006-03-07 10:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

why is webb taking so long to report?

by bruh21 2006-03-07 06:12PM | 0 recs
Vote Stuffing Isn't New To South Texas.

Lyndon Johnson was "elected" to the US Senate in 1948 by buying off South Texas bosses and getting the amount of votes needed to beat overwhelmingly popular and favorite in the election, then-governor Coke Stevenson. Johnson "won" by 48 votes.

For more info, read "Lyndon Johnson: Means of Ascent" by Robert Caro.

by gatordemocrat 2006-03-07 06:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Vote Stuffing Isn't New To South Texas.

good point in your post, and good point in your sig.  we can't play the hypocrite and, simply because he was a great champion for our agenda (for the most part), ignore that johnson was a strong-arming, dirty-tactic politician.

by jrock 2006-03-07 06:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

I know everyone's focused on TX-28, but it looks like Barbara Ann Radnofsky and Gene Kelly are headed for a runoff for the Senate nomination.

by johnny longtorso 2006-03-07 06:14PM | 0 recs
Webb County Shenanigans

I haven't been commenting, but I've been watching those goose eggs in Webb County all night, looking at Swing State Project, and thinking to myself, "Well, if you don't fix something, it usually stays broke."

They stole the 2000 election in broad daylight.  And we haven't fixed our election system since.  There aren't a whole lot of other elections happening tonight, so maybe this one will wake some folks up who've still been asleep till now.

And maybe, just maybe, the fraud attempt this smells like from 1200 miles away or so will not succeed, and we will get the best of both worlds.

And maybe pigs will fly to see the ice capades in hell.

by Paul Rosenberg 2006-03-07 06:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Webb County Shenanigans

oh for god's sakes.

"Cuellar is up from his 2004 % in every county except Hayes." and this is due to fraud?

is there any election loss that won't be immediately attributed to fraud?

denial and magical thinking are what the other guys do, i thought.

by tatere 2006-03-07 07:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Webb County Shenanigans

Yea I'd like to second this comment.  The Diebold talk gets old after a while.

by descartes 2006-03-07 07:09PM | 0 recs
then do everything in your power...

to get verified voting.

And that includes not talking about "wins so big they can't be fixed" impossible with central tabulation.

The action comes from folks just like you.

Make this talk go away, nothing would make me happier.

-C.

by neutron 2006-03-07 07:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

And Bush just happens to be in TX because his staff forgot to ask in time for an absentee ballot.  I'm sure that he is prolly asleept at the moment.

by shlenny 2006-03-07 06:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Well, that stings, to say the least.

by who threw da cat 2006-03-07 06:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Well Cuellar just passed Rodriguez and appears to be flying toward the homestretch.

by Epitome23 2006-03-07 06:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Looks to me like there will be a runoff.  I think a lot of the projections are based on really untight data.

by attorney at arms 2006-03-07 06:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Wish that were true.  I've been using a slightly different statistical method than Chris all night, but have consistently agreed within 2% of his projections.  My final projections with 68.8% in: Cuellar 53.8%, Rodriguez 41.3%, Morales 4.9%.  I'm officially calling this one for Cuellar at this point, with no runoff necessary, pending legal inquiries into e-machines.

by jrock 2006-03-07 07:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Ciro leads 12,495 votes to 7,939 (Morales gets 1,544).

Precints yet to report: 116.

66 from Webb-Atascosa-Zapata. Cueller strongholds.

50 from Bexar-Guadalupe-Wilson.

The average weighted lead for Ciro in those precints are:

Ciro 59.4%
Cueller 32.5%
Morales 8.1%

So assuming Ciro maintains those numbers in the outstanding 50 precints. That means Ciro Rodriguez will have a projected lead of (minus the outstanding 66 [Cueller] precincts in Webb-Atascosa-Zapata):

Ciro 16,485 (57%)
Cueller 10,122 (35%)
Morales 2,088 (8%)

Which means that in order to avoid a run-off and win the election outright, Cueller will have to win 97.6% of the vote in the outstanding precints. In order to win the election outright and avoid a run-off Ciro would have to keep Cueller under 71%. In order to surpass Ciro in overall vote total Cueller would have to get 85%.

My projection is this:

A RUN-OFF

Ciro Rodriguez 47%
Henry Cueller 45%
Victor Morales 8%

by JackBourassa 2006-03-07 07:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

What happens if nobody gets 50% or more?

by kevin22262 2006-03-07 07:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

If nobody gets 50%, there is a runoff election between the top two vote getters on April 11.  There's still hope that we can hold Cuellar under 50%.

by whodat527 2006-03-07 07:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread
We just keep fuckin' losing.
Everything is pulled together this time. We had the progressive machine pumping on nearly all cylinders. And we get the crapped kicked out of us by a goddamn DINO. What the hell do we have to do to win around here?
by PatMN 2006-03-07 07:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

I think we lost for two reason 1. Republican voted more in the primary than last time. 2. Cuellar had an Incumbency advantage in the district he visited almost all the towns in the district days after he was elected. He was just to entrenched to be taken out.

by Liberal 2006-03-07 07:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread
Then how are we going to take out incumbent Republicans?
This was our perfect storm. This was our day to take back the party.
I am pretty down right now. I feel I need to blame someone but I don't know who.
by PatMN 2006-03-07 07:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Well i may be wrong we will see.

Cuellar 47% (R)
Ciro:   45% (D)
Morales: 8% (D)

with 85% in and the trend going towards Ciro we may still have a shot..

by Liberal 2006-03-07 08:51PM | 0 recs
what I don't understand

As someone who was 100% behind Ciro as a great way of teaching democrats to be real democrats...we didn't get beat by the other side...more democrats voted for the other guy.

I seriously doubt republicans in TEXAS would have their affiliation be democrat for the rest of the year just to vote for a congressman.

This is how elections work. Democrats in that part of texas prefer a democrat like Cuellar and it's obnoxious for us on a blog to decide who they should have voted for.

by PHDinNYC4Kerry 2006-03-07 07:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Why is Webb County showing 0 precincts reporting and yet:

WEBB    8,145    454    789    9,388    0    30
Early    8,145    454    789    9,388    ...    ...

Isn't it very possible that Webb has tampered with the ballot box again?

by watou 2006-03-07 07:14PM | 0 recs
Needed: a thorough post-mortem

It's important to remember that we haven't lost all of the recent elections.  Remember Tim Kaine?  And there have been others that we've won when we weren't supposed to.

It's possible that the Rodriguez campaign simply wasn't a good one.  It's also possible that Cuellar is simply a very popular guy in his district, and a photo with Bush isn't going to do any damage.  Finally, perhaps it just wasn't enough to have the netroots et al on one side and an incumbent on the other from the same party.

We really need to remember that this wasn't truly a Dem-vs. Republican matchup that would have leveraged the current public dissatisfaction with Bush and the GOP.  Rather, it was a primary, one in which many voters probably didn't see a whole lot of reason to get off their asses and oppose the incumbent.

I would like to know, however, where things fell through when it came to the ground game, particularly GOTV.

by jonweasel 2006-03-07 07:15PM | 0 recs
Are Republicans allowed to vote

Are Republicans and Independents allowed to vote in a Democratic Primary?

If they are--then Ciro did not have a chance.

by jasmine 2006-03-07 07:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Look it's not over until Cueller gets over 50%. There will be a run off.

by JackBourassa 2006-03-07 07:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Your positive thinking is refreshing, but unlikely.  For perspective, with the same precincts reporting in '04, at this point Ciro was up 54.5% - 45.5%, and still ended up losing.  This year at the same point he is down 45.0% - 48.8%.  Even accounting for the 5% Morales will end up with, Cuellar is a lock to bump over 50% considering the precincts that are left.

by jrock 2006-03-07 07:45PM | 0 recs
Where did 4000 votes go

check the totals by county.

All the other races got more votes than the House race.  It is about 3000 short.  There should be 14000-16000 votes cast, not 9300.

Also, both candidates are under 50% by my math.

by pjv 2006-03-07 07:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Where did 4000 votes go

very suspicious.  more people voted for railroad commish and propositions than the highly publicized house race?  only part that doesn't make sense, though, is that this 5,000-6,000 vote shortage HURTS cuellar, considering it's webb co.

by jrock 2006-03-07 07:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Another stunning victory for the netroots.  When are we going to win one of these things?

by mattgabe 2006-03-07 07:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

A sports cliche' would serve us well - don't get too high after wins, and don't get too down after losses.  As passionate as we all are about politics to be posting here, it does absolutely no good to get down in the dumps about this, or 2004, or 2000, or 1994, or on and on.  What will serve us well is to pick right up keep fighting.  Starting tomorrow.  And likewise, when we finally do "win" and get back on top later this year, and in 2008, it will serve us well not to get too giddy and drunk on enthusiasm while losing sight of what got us there.  We'll live to fight another day, to be sure.

by jrock 2006-03-07 07:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

I agree, you win some, you loose some but you'll only make a difference you are commited in the long term.  Just making this close should send Cellaur a message that he shouldn't push it too much.

by descartes 2006-03-07 07:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

I don't know how to tell you this, but with MORE votes coming in, Cuellar is getting further from 50%.  And there are apparently a few precincts strong for Rodriguez left.

The difference this time is Morales.

by attorney at arms 2006-03-07 08:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Somebody mind telling me how this works out?  Did they just make up the numbers?

U. S. Representative District 28               
    Henry Cuellar - Incumbent        8,145    86.75%    8,145    86.75%
    Victor Morales        454    4.83%    454    4.83%
    Ciro D. Rodriguez        789    8.40%    789    8.40%
                -----------        -----------   
        Total Votes Cast        9,388        9,388

        Precincts Reported        0    of    30 Precincts    0.00%

http://204.65.107.70/dem1county239.htm

by kevin22262 2006-03-07 08:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

that's the early voting numbers.  early vote numbers don't count as a "precinct".

by jrock 2006-03-07 08:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Why do we even have "election day" anymore?  I Hate early voting!

by kevin22262 2006-03-07 08:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Atascosa now fully reported.  Looks like Ciro basicly broke even on election day.  Not willing to bet that happens in LaSalle, Zapata and Webb, though.

by BBigJ 2006-03-07 08:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Seems to me that the vote totals for Webb county THIS year (9388 votes) are being incorrectly tabulated as ALL early votes.

Consider that in 2004 there were 15,300 votes total in Webb County.

Seems to me that the hysterical depression being moaned and groaned about is premature and foolish.

People need to relax - especially YOU Chris Bowers. As an opinion leader in this community, you have a responsibility to remain relatively calm and cool in these kinds of situations.

It's not "over" until the election is certified.

Your "model" and your "projections" mean nothing until the votes are counted.

Comparisons of last election and this election, given that the turnout varies immensely and variably across precincts and counties are meaningless.

Why not save the self-immolating hyperbole for later.

And that goes DOUBLE for the Diebold is satan crowd.

Grow up, people.

Observe, learn, adapt, and keep fighting.

by RedDan 2006-03-07 08:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Thank you for that breath of fresh air (sanity).

Doesn't anyone remember a little thing called the 2000 Presidential election? Wait until the damn votes are counted.

by Geogriffith 2006-03-07 08:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Second Texas Primary Results Thread

Yeah, and we all know how well that turned out.

by who threw da cat 2006-03-07 08:47PM | 0 recs

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