Second Texas Primary Results Thread
by Chris Bowers, Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 04:57:32 PM EST
Swing State Project
Most Recent Updates At The Top
- It's over. The early voting totals were terrible. Cuellar pulled 12,772 (57.98%) of the early vote. Ciro got 7,579 (34.40%), and Morales got 1,678 (7.62%). This thing was lost before today even began.
- OK, this is probably it. The early voting from Webb came in solid for Cuellar. I currently project Cuellar at 54.33%. Current vote totals are Cuellar 16,705 (48.76%), Ciro 15,073 (44.00%), Morales 2,480 (7.24%). Now it is just about hoping that Cuellar somehow stays below 50%.
- With 190 precincts in, here is a county by county comparison of Cuellar's percentage of the vote in 2006 compared to 2006:
Atascosa: +15.7% (only early voting returns)
Bexar: +0.1% (almost done)
Comal: +5.4% (almost done)
Frio: +9.1% (done)
Guadalupe: +7.1% (done)
Hays: -3.7% (done)
LaSalle: +4.2% (only early voting returns)
McMullen: +19.8% (done)
Wilson: +5.9% (half done)
Zapata: +9.1% (only early voting returns)
Is there hope? A little bit, but not much. We could get a turnaround in the counties with onyl early voting. Combine that with low turnout in Webb and a swing away from Cuellar in Webb, and then we have something. But the chances aren't great.
- With almost everything outside of Webb, Atacosa, LaSalle and Zapata counties reporting, here are the results: Ciro 14,557 (58.71%), Cuellar: 8,542 (34.45%), Morales: 1,685 (6.82%). Projection: Cuellar 53.50%.
- Some random notes: Cuellar is up from his 2004 % in every county except Hayes. This includes several non-Cuellar controlled areas. Atacossa and Zapata, which account from 1.6% of Cuellar's gain in my projection, have only reported early voting so far. Frio, Hays, Guadalupe, and McMullen counties are done reporting. Cuellar added 0.9% to his district-wide 2004 % in those four counties. Bexar is nearly done reporting. Cuellar added 0.1% to his district-wide 2004 % in that county. Bexar is is Ciro's stronghold.
- With 86% (or thereabouts) of the non-Webb county vote in the situation is as follows: Ciro 13,216 (57.61%), Cuellar: 8,127 (35.41%), Morales: 1,596 (6.96%). Projection: Cuellar 53.62%. Not enough to make this up outside of Webb anymore.
- Check this out:U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez is expected to try to beef up his legal case against Democratic nominee Henry Cuellar today, introducing an amended lawsuit that alleges more than 500 people who voted in the primary here are registered at vacant addresses or at homes where they do not live.(...)
The San Antonio Express-News visited some of the residences in question Monday based on information provided by Rodriguez's attorney, Buck Wood.
In one case, a primary voter with the same name as Cuellar's campaign manager, Colin Strother, is registered as living with Cuellar's parents in central Laredo.
The Cuellars, in an interview with a reporter Monday, said no one named Strother lives there.
Told of the allegation, Cuellar spokesman T.J. Connolly said that when Strother agreed to work on Cuellar's campaign, he was given a salary and the option to live in a rental property at Cuellar's parents' home.
Strother reportedly registered and voted at that address, although he has been living with his wife in another location outside of District 28 as part of her employment compensation. The two have been planning to relocate to the Cuellar residence, but furor over the campaign has kept them from doing so, Connolly said. So while we are waiting, and just in case anyone was wondering about Webb County, keep in mind that Cuellar's campaign manager voted for him illegally in 2004.
- With 84% (or thereabouts) of the non-Webb county vote in the situation is as follows: Ciro 12,495 (56.85%), Cuellar: 7,939 (36.12%), Morales: 1,544 (7.03%). Projection: Cuellar 53.64%. SSP just posted the following:The Rodriguez campaign has a team headed down to Webb County including campaign counsel and representatives. While this is happening Ciro is addressing the hundreds of supporters who have gathered at our headquarters on the South Side of San Antonio. A supporter just called in as well and asked if the banks in Laredo were closed.
This is so much like OH-02 it is scary. This has fraud attempt written all over it. Notice that I say "attempt." Trying to committ fraud and succeeding are different things. Wanting to committ fraud and doing it are different things. Committing fraud and having it change who won an election are not always the same thing. I don't know what is going on, but it sure looks like they at least attempted something in Webb.
- With 77% (or thereabouts) of the non-Webb county vote in the situation is as follows: Ciro 11,269 (56.40%), Cuellar: 7,304 (36.55%), Morales: 1,408 (7.05%). Projection: Cuellar 53.28%. Not a single word from Webb County yet. Most of Cuellar's gain in my projections are coming from Frio, Zapata, and Atascosa counties.
- What sort of swing do we need from Webb? A big one--like ten or eleven points. We need Cuellar to only get around 73% of the vote there or less to force a runoff.
- This is going bad. We are going to need Morales to take away a lot of votes from Cuellar in Webb County. Of course, Webb County, Cuellar's stronghold, still hasn't reported yet due to problems with touchscreen machines, or something. I'm really starting to get pissed off about that.
- With nearly half of the vote counted, current totals: Ciro 10,041 (55.41%) -- Cuellar 6,767 (37.34%) -- Morales 1,313 (7.25%). Current Overall Projection: Cuellar 53.26%.
- With 36% of the vote counted, current totals: Ciro 8,585 (58.87%) -- Cuellar 5,016 (34.39%) -- Morales 983 (6.74%). Current Overall Projection: Cuellar 52.47%. We need to start pulling this back very soon.
- In case you are wondering why I am still porjecting Cuellar ahead despite Ciro's robust lead in the actual vote count, Webb County, which accounted for over 31% of the vote in 2004, has not reported a single vote yet. And in 2004, it went 84-16 for Cuellar.
- The first results from today's voting come from Bexar County, and they are good for Ciro. That is the sort of good sign we needed. Current Overall Projection: Cuellar 51.70% I would like to have pulled back more, but a good sign none the less.
- Current totals: Ciro 6,674 (63.38%) -- Cuellar 3,051 (28.97%) -- Morales 805 (7.64%). Current Overall Projection: Cuellar 51.73%.