RI-Sen: Brown ties Whitehouse in primary, both Dems make big move on Chafee
by Chris Bowers, Wed Feb 08, 2006 at 10:08:28 AM EST
If the general election were held today, Chafee has an advantage of 40 to 34 percent over Whitehouse (compared to his lead of 38 percent to 25 percent in September). If Brown is the Democratic nominee, Chafee's lead is 38 percent to 36 percent (compared to 41 percent to 18 percent in September).
If the Republican nominee were Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey, Whitehouse is ahead by 44 percent to 29 percent (up from the 35 percent to 25 percent lead Whitehouse had in September). If the nominees were Laffey and Brown, Brown has an advantage of 47 percent to 24 percent over Laffey (up from 30 percent to 26 percent in September).
In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Brown is the choice of 31 percent of the 323 voters who indicated they were very likely to vote in the Democratic primary, while 25 percent say they prefer Whitehouse, 0 percent say they plan to vote for Carl Sheeler, and 44 percent are undecided. The margin of error in this likely Democratic primary sample is plus or minus 5 percentage points. In September, Whitehouse had an advantage of 32 to 16 percent over Brown. Wow. Brown clearly has a lot of mo' on Whitehouse, and both Dems are closing hard on Chafee. In the Republican primary, I am cheering for Laffey, who would clearly have no chance in the general. Even if Chafee wins the primary, both Brown and Whitehouse are in a strong position to take this state.
This poll adds Rhode Island to the "already competitive" column for Dems, making five total. If Dems can come up with one more of these, then a takeover of the Senate becomes a possibility.