RI-Sen: Brown ties Whitehouse in primary, both Dems make big move on Chafee

Finally, another poll from Rhode Island. And it is a very interesting one too:The survey was conducted Feb. 4 to 6 at Brown University by Darrell M. West, director of the A. Alfred Taubman Center for Public Policy and American Institutions and the John Hazen White Sr. Public Opinion Laboratory. It is based on a statewide random sample of 785 registered voters in Rhode Island. Overall, the poll had a margin of error of about plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

If the general election were held today, Chafee has an advantage of 40 to 34 percent over Whitehouse (compared to his lead of 38 percent to 25 percent in September). If Brown is the Democratic nominee, Chafee's lead is 38 percent to 36 percent (compared to 41 percent to 18 percent in September).

If the Republican nominee were Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey, Whitehouse is ahead by 44 percent to 29 percent (up from the 35 percent to 25 percent lead Whitehouse had in September). If the nominees were Laffey and Brown, Brown has an advantage of 47 percent to 24 percent over Laffey (up from 30 percent to 26 percent in September).

In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Brown is the choice of 31 percent of the 323 voters who indicated they were very likely to vote in the Democratic primary, while 25 percent say they prefer Whitehouse, 0 percent say they plan to vote for Carl Sheeler, and 44 percent are undecided. The margin of error in this likely Democratic primary sample is plus or minus 5 percentage points. In September, Whitehouse had an advantage of 32 to 16 percent over Brown. Wow. Brown clearly has a lot of mo' on Whitehouse, and both Dems are closing hard on Chafee. In the Republican primary, I am cheering for Laffey, who would clearly have no chance in the general. Even if Chafee wins the primary, both Brown and Whitehouse are in a strong position to take this state.

This poll adds Rhode Island to the "already competitive" column for Dems, making five total. If Dems can come up with one more of these, then a takeover of the Senate becomes a possibility.

Tags: 2006, Democrats, Primaries, Senate (all tags)

Comments

14 Comments

Laffey vs Chafee?

Did they seriously do a poll with every possible matchup between the Republican candidates and Democratic candidates, and a poll for the Democratic primary, but NOT a poll for the Republican primary?  Those are some of the most important numbers right now!

by Fran for Dean 2006-02-08 10:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Laffey vs Chafee?
yeah, really.
by Chris Bowers 2006-02-08 10:34AM | 0 recs
Senate takeover

As far as the Senate takeover possibilities go, does the entrance of James Webb for VA-Sen boost that race to "already competitive"?  That has to boost it to "potentially competitive, tier 1" at the very least.

by Fran for Dean 2006-02-08 10:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Senate takeover

Currently i'd say he's on the same level as Jim Pederson of Arizona, potentially very competitive but not yet so.

by KainIIIC 2006-02-08 11:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Senate takeover

He's just a name right now.  We need solid poll numbers before we can call it "already competitive".

Webb also needs heavy-duty fundraising, grassroots support, a campaign website!!! and staff.

by HellofaSandwich 2006-02-08 12:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Laffey vs Chafee?

hahaha, and I'm actually eating a Laffy Taffy right now!

by Fran for Dean 2006-02-08 10:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Laffey vs Chafee?

Just don't sing that song.  It's vile.

Here's yr cross-tabs.  Note that Whitehouse may have a slight female problem.

by Adam B 2006-02-08 10:56AM | 0 recs
Re: RI-Sen: Brown Ties Whitehouse in primary, both

Does anyone want Ga?

Saxby Chambliss is coming up I think - Ga. has a lot of untapped resentment about how things are going..

by turnerbroadcasting 2006-02-08 10:42AM | 0 recs
Chambliss isn't up until '08....

If I am not mistaken, Saxby ran his smear Cleland campaign in 2002, meaning Georgia is stuck with him until 2008.

by Keith Brekhus 2006-02-08 10:52AM | 0 recs
Re: RI-Sen: Brown Ties Whitehouse in primary, both

The only thing that that guy has going for him is his beautiful name.

I mean: SAXBY CHAMBLISS!  Doesn't it just ooze Southern genteel sophistication?

Too bad he's such fucking scum.

by HellofaSandwich 2006-02-08 12:24PM | 0 recs
Re: RI-Sen: Brown ties Whitehouse in primary, both

These are suprising results.  What is going on that makes primary voters suddenly prefer Brown to Whitehouse?  I like them both but it seemed like Whitehouse had a much better campaign going.

by Steve M 2006-02-08 12:07PM | 0 recs
Re: RI-Sen: Brown ties Whitehouse in primary, both

Brown has spent a lot of cash on ads to get his name ID up. the side effect is that he's now the candidate with the least cash on hand ($481k as opposed to Chafee's $1.76m, Whitehouse's $1.56m, and Laffey's $860k).

by johnny longtorso 2006-02-09 06:34AM | 0 recs
Re: RI-Sen: Brown ties Whitehouse in primary, both

Matt's a likable character - people weren't really paying attention to the race.  His approval rating has gone up with his name ID, and Sheldon's down - people want to vote for this guy.

by Yoohoo 2006-02-10 07:29AM | 0 recs
Make that 6

James Webb is running against George Allen. I would call that already competetive. Check out the story on Allen's susceptibility: http://www.raisingkaine.com/1784
on Webb's announcement: http://www.raisingkaine.com/1797

Who thinks Webb will make George Allen look like the spiteful bedwetter he is?

by msnook 2006-02-08 03:57PM | 0 recs

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