MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

It's a new month, and thus its time for a new straw poll.

Go vote now.

Here have been the previous results (January, December, November):


First Round
                       Jan     Dec     Nov
Feingold        34.1    28.1    25.7
Clark             27.6    22.1     28.4
Warner          13.7    15.6     10.6
Edwards        12.8    11.3     12.2
Richardson      4.6      4.6       4.3
Unsure             2.2      8.0       6.6
Clinton            1.9       4.9      6.2
Kerry               1.8       3.0      2.2
Bayh                0.6      1.6       1.9
Biden               0.4      1.5       1.3
Vilsack            0.4      0.5        0.5
Others*            --         --         --

Eighth Round
                       Jan     Dec     Nov
Feingold        37.3    32.7     31.8
Clark             29.8    27.3     34.4
Warner          17.3    23.5     15.3
Edwards        15.6    16.4     18.4

"Unsure" took a beating last month. Perhaps allegiances are starting to form. Perhaps there was just more poll stuffing on behalf of the top candidates. Everyone except Feingold, Clark and Edwards actually either lost ground or stayed flat.

And here are the Dailykos results, and the Dailykos trends. It is amazing to think that just seven months ago, Clinton and Feingold were tied. There has been clear downward movement for Hillary, and clear upward movement for Feingold and Warner over the long term. If Feingold rises any further, he will start hitting Dean levels of support ala 2003. While Matt is absolutely right, the netroots are still a lot more powerful now than they were three years ago. Progess has been made.

A new candidate has been added to the February poll: Tom Daschle. I don't imagine he will get many votes, but he seems to be running as much as anyone else on this list.

Go vote now.

Remember that running a shadow campaign for President is the requirement to be in this poll, not online support. If online support was a requirement, I would have dropped Vilsack, Biden and Bayh from these polls a long time ago. But this isn't about online support: all eleven of these folks are already running a shadow campaign for President. Gore isn't: no leadership PAC, no staff, no anything. If the Gore folks out there want Gore to be included, then they better start a serious Draft Gore movement that contains most of the trappings of a shadow campaign: a real email list, lots of pledged donations, press releases, a professional website, and actual staff. Unless that happens (or unless Gore goes ahead and does that himself) he isn't going to be included in these polls. And no amount of whining will change that.

Go vote now.

Tags: 2008, Blogosphere, Democrats, netroots, polls, Primaries (all tags)

Comments

29 Comments

Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

How about a new fantasy poll as well? When I say "fantasy," I mean, "actually possible could run somehow" - in other words, Gore, but not Dean or Jimmy Carter.

by DavidNYC 2006-02-02 01:02PM | 0 recs
VOTE here: MyDD+ Poll!

Here is an IRV poll which is similar to Chris' poll, but with one of the most popular potential candidates in the blogosphere (guess who) included. Vote in the:




MyDD Plus Straw poll!

I will post a poll with a larger slate if sufficient interest is shown below. Please post the name of the candidate of your choice (that is currently not in my poll) as a reply to this comment.

ps: Chris, Democracy and polls are about people, candidates, and people's choices. Not some arbitrary set of rules set by one or two individuals (strictly speaking, people should be allowed to set those rules. Why don't you try posting properly cast polls on the rules themselves and see what I am talking about). Frankly, the stubbornness is unreasonable on a blog that otherwise champions progressive ethos.

by NeuvoLiberal 2006-02-02 07:51PM | 0 recs
Re: VOTE here: MyDD+ Poll!

You shouldn't call it the MyDD plus straw poll. You shoudl call it the "popular" or "people's choice" poll or something. This is because the purpose of my straw polls are to determine support among hte probable candidates. Your poll seeks to determine them among hte most liked candidates.

by Chris Bowers 2006-02-02 08:28PM | 0 recs
Re: VOTE here: MyDD+ Poll!

will edit the poll to reflect your suggestion.

thanks.

by NeuvoLiberal 2006-02-02 08:36PM | 0 recs
Done!

Folks, please vote in this Inclusive 2008 polls' Popular IRV Version Poll (Feb'06) .

BTW, in order not to inject pollster bias, I don't vote in my polls until some 10-20 votes have been cast.

by NeuvoLiberal 2006-02-02 08:49PM | 0 recs
Re: VOTE here: MyDD+ Poll!

You should call the MyDD poll the "bullshit poll of candidates as defined by Chris Bowers". As far as I know, not a single person in your poll has declared their candidacy. You have created an arbitrary and subjective set of criteria and set yourself up as the sole judge of people who meet it. If you apply objective criteria to include only people who are candidates, your poll should include no one.

Every poll that is open to the public is a people's choice poll, unless the pollster has forced the people to artificially choose among candidates that do not include their first choice. Then it becomes a bullshit poll.

Ya wanna know who your readers want as their candidate? Put their choice in their poll. Otherwise, it means nothing.

by TrainWreck 2006-02-03 12:07PM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

I see Clark as a very strong VP candidate for a lot of potential nominees (not to say I've ruled him out for top of the ticket).  

by danielj 2006-02-02 01:17PM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

The likely 2008 Democratic Presidential Candidates are
1)Evan Bayh-Indiana
2)Joseph Biden-Delaware
3)Wesley Clark-Arkansas
4)Hillary Clinton-New York
5)John Edwards-North Carolina
6)Russell Feingold-Wisconsin
7)John Kerry-Massachusetts
8)Bill Richardson-New Mexico
9)Tom Vilsack-Iowa
10)Mark Warner-Virginia

The Washington D.C (Beltway)Outsiders are
1)Wesley Clark-Arkansas
2)John Edwards-North Carolina
3)Bill Richardson-New Mexico
4)Tom Vilsack-Iowa
5)Mark Warner-Virginia

Bill Richardson-New Mexico is going to be the 2008 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee. A Southwestern Hispanic Male. Governor,Former Presidential Cabinet Level Secretary,Former UN Ambassador and Former Member of the US Congress.

That leaves us
1)Wesley Clark-Arkansas
2)John Edwards-North Carolina
3)Tom Vilsack-Iowa
4)Mark Warner-Virginia.

The last two Democratic Presidents were Southerners

The top three Democratic Candidates for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination is
1)Wesley Clark-Arkansas
2)John Edwards-North Carolina
3)Mark Warner-Virginia

Clark and Warner have executive experience.
Clark is a former military general, Warner is former governor.

The leading Democratic candidates for the 2008 Presidential nomination are Wesley Clark and Mark Warner.

I would be happy with either a Clark/Richardson ticket or a Warner/Richardson ticket

by CMBurns 2006-02-02 01:21PM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

I have to disagree. Richardson is a possible (not necessarily probable) VP choice. He has scandal experience from his time at the DoE.

Warner is not telegenic. He was a very effective governor for VA, but he is not media savvy, charismatic, or inspirational. He is a Kerryesque, good on paper candidate without the foreign policy credentials.

Clark didnt win the first time and won't win this time. He is from the South but has never held office in the South. He does not have a strong campaign structure for any one state and I would be very surprised if he actually won a southern state in a hypothetical general election where he was the nominee.  

by schwompa 2006-02-02 05:46PM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

Yeah, that Eisenhower guy never won squat in the South, did he?

by paul minot 2006-02-03 04:20AM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

Really, you're comparing Eisenhower's run in 1952 to a Clark run today?

I like Wes Clark, but he's not Ike. He is not seen as the military force that won a world war. He was not heavily courted by both parties to run for President (Truman attempted to get Ike to run as a Dem). He does not have the name recognition that Ike had in 1952 nor is he revered like Ike was by vets (and virtually every voting male was a vet by then).

In short, the ONLY thing Clark and Ike have in common is that they are both generals.
 

by schwompa 2006-02-03 01:07PM | 0 recs
I hate this demographic stuff

Not one word about how good a president these people would be.  Not one word about how they could communicate ideas in a campaign.  Not one word about the content of the campagains.  And it seems about a third of the online community approaches presidential candidates this way.  I don't want another Carter or Clinton.  I want another FDR, Truman or Kennedy.  And that comes from looking at the candidate first AND second, and their demographic background third.

by Valatan 2006-02-02 06:59PM | 0 recs
Re: I hate this demographic stuff

My sentiments exactly.  That's why I'm a Clark supporter.

by paul minot 2006-02-03 04:21AM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

I struggle to comprehend this Clark/Warner/Edwards scenario. HRC has cash + organisation + name recognition and yet she isn't even in the final two?

Indeed as far as I understand the current position General Clark has neither serious organisational strength/support nor the sort of funds/backers that are needed for such a contest.

Regardless of his many qualities he isn't going to be a serious contender unless he can build a huge war chest in the next 24 months. Primaries cost money, lots of it. Can Clark raise that type of money?

One of Clark/Edwards/Warner might well make it into the top 2 but only one if HRC is in the contest.

by kundalini 2006-02-03 03:47PM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

I don't see where Clark fits in to the primary season for that long. The Iraq experience is slowly but surely feeding the American appetite for a return to isolationism. Simply having a person with military experience is hard sell to precipitate the nomination.

I tend to think that Feingold will stay as the "house favorite" of liberals and true progressives that Hillary will vaccuum up the Clintonistas and leave Marky Mark Warner to run to her right.

So much of the campaign is going to come down to the polling strength of them all in Iowa and New Hamsphire, along with how the primaries end up being scheduled.

Feingold has the inside track in NH because of his "maverick" je ne se quoi, Warner has the Southern gambit, and Hillary would likely win in Iowa because of how huge the field will be and her tremendous name ID not to mention as the "middle" she would be likely to win by horse-trading.

That largely leaves each candidate to spin each primary to get the necessary dollars to hang on and win. I can see why Feingold and/or Warner may choose not to run in '08 and that obviously would shift dynamics. But overall I would think this is how it will break.

by risenmessiah 2006-02-02 02:05PM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

Feingold has a huge advantage in Iowa, being from neighboring Wisconsin, and is probably likely to get Tom Harkin's endorsement being a fellow progressive. Feingold also has strong agricultural roots from Wisconsin, and is probably the most pro-labor democrat of the field, meaning he will probably generate considerable union support (I'm guessing the AFL CIO will support someone else while the SEUI will endorse Feingold).

Feingold should have considerable support from New Hampshire, leaving Feingold very well positioned for the primaries.

by KainIIIC 2006-02-02 04:48PM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

The wildcard is if vilasic drops out of the race and lends his ground organization to Hillary.  With the stupid caucus system, that could very well throw Iowa to HRC.  If she wins there, there is major pressure on Russ to win in New Hampshire.

by Valatan 2006-02-02 07:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Clark's chances...

I think you fail to recognize the fierce support that Wes Clark has among a wide demographic--i.e. not just a bunch of college kids, but veterans, disenchanted Republicans, etc.  Wes is going to be the McCain of the 2008 primary season.

He was already well liked in New Hampshire in 2004, and his stumping has improved remarkably since then.  His style will appeal as well in Iowa, regardless of Vilsack's participation.  (Vilsack is a boring joke.)  I say Clark challenges or beats Hillary in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and then BEATS Hillary (if he hasn't already) in South Carolina.  

I think Warner's appeal will be limited because of his weakness on security issues (listen to his current "opinions" on Iraq)--especially since by that time Iran, North Korea, or some other foreign crisis will supplant Iraq as a primary concern.  

Feingold will have a solid base of support, but it will be less than Dean's was after the Iowa scream.  

Clark's embrace of single payer, gay rights, and recently acquired credibility on global warming, combined with his impeccable security credentials, will make him an attractive consensus candidate for progressives and moderates alike.  Prospective polling against likely Repug nominees will confirm his crossover appeal, and Hillary's relatively weak performance in polling will scare Dems away from her.  

Clark will emerge as the Dem's nominee, and if he is as smart as I think he is, will choose Warner as his veep, since it will add domestic administrative experience and deliver Virginia, as well as strengthening his southern and western appeal.  Together they will call to task the GOP nominee, even McCain, for their support of the failed policies of George Bush, win in a landslide with Fightin' Dem coattails, and we will emerge from this nightmare completely in charge of the political apparatus--except of course for the Supreme Court.  John Edwards will be named Attorney General, Al Gore will be given major props by Wes and named Secretary of Interior or any other job Al wants.  

I feel reasonably confident in all the above, (excepting my fantasy cabinet appointments) UNLESS Dean or Gore enters the election--in which case THEY will compete for the "ABH" role.    

by paul minot 2006-02-03 04:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Clark's chances...

I agree completely about Clark

Clark is the only Democrat can defeat John McCain. Clark can appeal to Independents who are liberal on domestic Issues. Pro Abortion Rights,Pro Gay Rights,Pro Affirmative Actions,Pro Environment,Pro Labor,Universal Health Care,and Increasing the Minimum Wage Etc. but at the same time are Hawkish on foriegn policy and national security issues. Strong National Defense.

Regarding Clark's VP runningmate.
I will pick either Bill Richardson or Barack Obama

by CMBurns 2006-02-03 11:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Clark's chances...

Does Clark have any money? Or any rich friends?

Has he done any favours for key players who can deliver votes?

Democratic primaries aren't fair, they are rarely about issues, and dream scenarios don't occur as often as you might hope.

Clark may well be a superb candidate but without cash and organisation he is relying on going into super Tuesday with huge momentum just to stay in the race.

by kundalini 2006-02-03 03:58PM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

IRV is wonderful. Many thanks for showing people how it works!

by Seldom Seen Smith 2006-02-02 04:04PM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll
I corrected your poll by removing obvious losers
and adding 2 real candidates:
Al Gore and Howard Dean
Please vote on corrected poll at
http://www.demochoice.org/dcballot.php?n orot=on&poll=Pr08Feb06
(Corrected MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll)
by WeNeed3rdParty 2006-02-03 12:09AM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

in corrected poll (with Gore&Dean) results are much more realistic (2/4/06 8am)

Al Gore         53.3%    
Howard Dean     26.7%    
Russ Feingold      13.3%     
Wesley Clark      6.7%

So suggestion is simple:
Gore is for Prez, Dean for VP, Clark for Def.Secy
Feingold for some important role in GORE'S Cabinet

by WeNeed3rdParty 2006-02-04 04:02AM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

Check out my fantasy scenario below.

Clark/Warner beats ANYBODY the Repugs can put up, IMHO.  

by paul minot 2006-02-03 04:56AM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll
Hands down. What's more it gears Mark Warner for 2016. But by that time Wes Clark will have handled all the world's problems. ;)
Its way early of course, and it seems that General Clark is the only one working for 2006 and not for himself (typical of that guy btw).
In my mind, the other candidates are pretty weak or would be extremely divisive for the country.
by westcott 2006-02-03 05:48AM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

This poll is just plain stupid.

Like all we need is another senator to run for president- or better yet a retired general who has never won an election in his life.

by d 2006-02-03 05:42AM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

I know it's not much, but Clark DID win the Oklahoma primary in 2004.  

by paul minot 2006-02-03 05:56AM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

Most politicians don't run these things.  They hire people to do it.  

Do you think Bush (who has done pretty well politically, if not in any other fashion) runs a 24-hour operation?  

Leaders lead, and delegate wisely.  Eisenhower ran a 24-hour war.  So did Clark.  They're not idiots--they knew what THEY could do, and needed to do for themselves, and what they needed others to do for them.  Clark's website has a heading "Securing America's Future".  I think that's a pretty good soundbite.  Either he thought of it, or he has somebody else who did.  

Since Clark is running as a Democrat, he doesn't need ALL the vets--he just needs some of them.  

Anyway, we'll see if Clark can deliver the goods.  In the meantime, he seems to be practicing his ass off--campaigning for Kaine and Hackett last year, in Texas and elsewhere this year, appearing on Fox, etc.  Boning up on his communication and political skills.  Strengthening his positions on health care and the environment.  He's a smart, disciplined, and hard-working guy.  And a bunch of us are nuts about him, the way the Deaniacs were/are nuts about their guy.  I wouldn't count him out.      

by paul minot 2006-02-03 06:08AM | 0 recs
Re: MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

Cash + Organisation + Name Recognition = HRC as Democratic Nominee.

Unless MyDD viewers are intending to vote early and vote often, I'm struggling to see any other scenario, supposing she decides to run.

Outsider candidates are at a huge disadvantage when it comes to winning democratic primaries so the idea that Clark is going to win on his merits seems unrealistic.

But then again, if you can find the votes from somewhere I guess anyone can win. Just don't be surprised if HRC wins easily.

by kundalini 2006-02-03 10:03AM | 0 recs

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