LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

So ... it all comes down to this.  Use this thread for election comments, questions and updates.  I'll be in touch with Stoller from the victory party with the latest information -- hopefully I'll even be able to post some stuff myself.  Looking at the numbers on the "big board" in campaign hq, folks feel pretty confident about hitting their numbers in bellwether precincts, but we were pretty much saying the same thing during the Hackett returns and Lamont (primary and general).  However, it's especially a big deal when you consider they were hitting marks on a day with light turnout -- maybe 50,000 people will vote.

ELECTION RESULTS

Update [2006-12-9 21:38:34 by Tim Tagaris]: The best results are unquestionably on TV. The only problem is we have no idea where they are coming from. So ... here's what I see, and they're moving fast.

Jefferson: 12,492
Carter: 10,700
Precincts: 42%

Update [2006-12-9 21:51:14 by Tim Tagaris]: I'm trying to piece stuff together on the fly here. TV shows Jefferson opening up a 2k vote lead with 45% of the precincts reporting. Well, forget that... I just heard 2 seconds ago that channel 8 (fox) has called the race for William Jefferson. And that's that. I'm going to leave the in-hotel hotel room and head up to the "party."

Update [2006-12-9 22:3:46 by Tim Tagaris]: Jefferson's lead just keeps getting bigger. 4k votes with 52% reporting. FOX is still the only network to call it for Jefferson, but it's not looking good. WWL is reporting from Jefferson HQ that the mood is jubilant, a big change from the resignation reported from there only an hour ago. Let me add, the internal numbers I saw weeks ago showed Carter up 20%. Now this has got to be an IMPOSSIBLE district to poll, but we might be looking somewhere around 30% + off if the numbers continue to roll in the way they are.

Tags: Hurricane Katrina, karen carter, LA-2, William Jefferson (all tags)

Comments

69 Comments

Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

My guess: Carter by 4.5...

p.s. I'm still pissed about Lamont... Lieberman is such a schmuck!!!

by mermzilla 2006-12-09 03:42PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

I'll predict Carter by 7

Tim

by Tim Tagaris 2006-12-09 03:43PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread
Any idea when the precincts are going to start reporting?
Are they using electronic voting machines?
Is James Baker there???
by mermzilla 2006-12-09 03:46PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

The Times-Picayune says live results commence at 8pm.  They're on Central time, so that's 9pm for those of us on Eastern time.  Just another few minutes yet.

by RT 2006-12-09 03:52PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

I'll grudgingly predict Jefferson by 4 (52-48, just like when he was first elected in 1990).

But hey, I'm deliberately pessimistic. I also said Democrats had a 50/50 shot at winning the House.

by raginillinoian 2006-12-09 03:51PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Hey, why does it say she has 6 votes in Orleans Parish, and that's 38%?

WTF?

by raginillinoian 2006-12-09 03:51PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Why is this race so close?

Didn't the crook get only 23% in the primary?

Carter should be crushing him! This is ridiculous, why would people vote for this crook?! This is insane!

by need some wood 2006-12-09 03:59PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

He got 30% on November 7.

Carter got 22%.

And as we learned from the mayoral race, even tarnished incumbents have a remarkable way of coming back in New Orleans.

by raginillinoian 2006-12-09 04:00PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Well one thing is incompetence...which is what Nagin was accused of.

Another thing is being a crook and stealing 90,000 and hiding it in your freezer. I mean that's unbelieavable...not even some hard to understand inside the beltway dealing--this is stone cold cash in the freezer!

People should be outraged!

I hope Carter crushes him...there is no excuse for the people there to elect Jefferson. It reflects more badly on them than it does on the crook.

by need some wood 2006-12-09 04:03PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Does anyone know who the Republicans are supporting.  I remember with the Mayoral race, the Republicans/business community went for Nagin.

by TheUnknown285 2006-12-09 04:06PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

They're supporting their guy Bill Jefferson, who they asked to switch in 2004, and who votes with them on social issues.

by RBH 2006-12-09 05:04PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Ouch - 75% Jefferson, 25% Carter.

Sure, it's like one precinct, but still.

by raginillinoian 2006-12-09 04:11PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread
but still what???
it's one precinct!
by mermzilla 2006-12-09 04:13PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread
Carter by a lot (+7) or a small chance of Jefferson wining.
Carter will likly win by a lot, but I think a Jefferson win is more likly then a small Carter win.
by rtaycher1987 2006-12-09 04:15PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Great so far, with Carter leading by 16% with 15 of 492 precincts reporting.

by Jerome Armstrong 2006-12-09 04:20PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Jefferson has an early lead....

67 of 492 Precincts  14%

William Jefferson (I)    3,995    53%
Karen Carter     3,567     47%

Updated at 08:17 pm

by robliberal 2006-12-09 04:21PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Where are you getting your results from?

by meekermariner 2006-12-09 04:27PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

At this time it looks about even if barely jefferson in (Orleans Parish Returns) and at least 15 points carter in (Jefferson Parish Returns) for a solid carter lead.

by rtaycher1987 2006-12-09 04:25PM | 0 recs
Jefferson Parish

Karen Carter got 8% there in November and Jefferson's percentage was almost 3 times larger.

Karen finished 5th in Jefferson Parish.

So maybe enough people will switch from Shepard and others to her for her to win.

by RBH 2006-12-09 04:26PM | 0 recs
Strongholds?

   I thought Carter was supposed to do well in Orleans parish and poorly in Jefferson parish.  The results show the opposite right now.

by cilerder86 2006-12-09 04:26PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

regarding http://www.nola.com/elections/1209_retur ns.ssf:

1) right now, about 50 precincts have reported and there are only about 4000 votes.  Does 80 votes per parish sound right?

and 2) the number of precincts reporting is wrong.  if you add orleans parish precincts reporting and jefferson parish precincts reporting you don't get the number at the top.

by hoose 2006-12-09 04:27PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

The results page is wonky.  It's saying Carter has more total votes, but a lower percentage.

by TheUnknown285 2006-12-09 04:33PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Nevermind.

by TheUnknown285 2006-12-09 04:33PM | 0 recs
NOLA.com: bad math

They must have a faith-based mathematician doing the counting at NOLA.com.

8:34 Central results

Carter    2119 48% (really 64%)
Jefferson 1169 52% (really 35%)

total votes 3288

by hoose 2006-12-09 04:35PM | 0 recs
Re: NOLA.com: bad math

LOL

by TheUnknown285 2006-12-09 04:36PM | 0 recs
Typo

Jefferson's total was 1,000 low earlier.  I think that's what you saw.  

Current count is Jefferson 2509; Carter 2264.

by hilltopper 2006-12-09 04:38PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Carter now leading by 194 votes with 72 precincts in.

by TheUnknown285 2006-12-09 04:41PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

It's more bad math.  Add up Carter's total in Orleans and Jefferson Parishes.

by Fran for Dean 2006-12-09 04:42PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

big jump for carter! Up 52-48 now

by torridjoe 2006-12-09 04:41PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

I hope that the Orleans precincts that haven't reported yet are a lot more pro carter or she will go down

by rtaycher1987 2006-12-09 04:44PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Her lead is down to 45 with 87 precincts in.

by TheUnknown285 2006-12-09 04:44PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Is there any sense of where these are coming from there, were two early crazed percients  a 75% to 25% for Jefferson and an 83-17 for Carter, are their similiar places in the future.

by Democraticavenger 2006-12-09 04:47PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Louisiana Secretary of State page: http://www.sos.louisiana.gov:8090/cgibin /?rqstyp=elcms2&rqsdta=120906

It's not been updated yet, but it has parish results.

by TheUnknown285 2006-12-09 04:48PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

This sucks.

by raginillinoian 2006-12-09 04:52PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Big time!!

by Lizzy 2006-12-09 04:56PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

With the caveat that nola.com's been weird all night, it appears Jefferson's opened up by 2,000+ votes in the past couple of minutes:

U.S. REP., 2nd DISTRICT     103 of 492 precincts
Candidate    Number of votes    Percentage of votes
Karen Carter (D)    3390    38%
William Jefferson (D)    5481    62%

by hoose 2006-12-09 04:59PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

From the Times-Picayune:

Jefferson  60%
Carter     40%

with 9,000 votes counted.

by Thaddeus 2006-12-09 05:02PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Jefferson opened up a huge lead in Jefferson Parish.

Some people will apparently vote for the crook, if he talks about values enough.

by RBH 2006-12-09 05:02PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Jefferson  56%
Carter  44%

 only 20% of Orleans parishes reported
  33% of Jefferson parishes in.  

Carter shuld be stronger in Orleans; jefferson in Jeff.

by Thaddeus 2006-12-09 05:07PM | 0 recs
When he is indicted

he'll be expelled and Carter can replace him then..otherwise, he should be done away with by other means (and no I don't mean that way...!)

by dantata 2006-12-09 05:08PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Gretna results

Primary

1536 votes total

372 for Jefferson, 118 for Carter, 165 for Troy Carter, 180 for Lavigne, 689 for Shepard.

And in this election:

724 to 196 Jefferson.

But then again, Gretna bigwigs aren't pleased by people like Carter who mention Some things

by RBH 2006-12-09 05:11PM | 0 recs
Election Results Open Thread

The cluelessness of the American electorate cannot be overstimated.  When I see Democrats voting for the likes of Joe Lieberman and Bill Jefferson, I have to wonder if there is much hope for a progressive agenda.  I hate being a downer, but jesus h. christ, a guy gets caught with wads of cash in a refrigerator and gets re-elected?

I wonder what they are thinking about us in civilized countries?

by global yokel 2006-12-09 05:15PM | 0 recs
Tim

The Polling doesn't make the winners in New Orleans. But, the side that can GOTV will win.

And by GOTV, that means any votes, no matter it's legality.

Considering that this was a battle against some entrenched people who could get a van and fill it with voters who'd go in and vote Jefferson, don't get too worried if you lost.

But Louisiana has closed party primaries in 2008. So Jefferson is done by 2009.

by RBH 2006-12-09 05:15PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

When he is indicted, he'll be expelled and someone not named Carter can replace him then. Would Karen Carter really run again after getting (apparently) hammered this time?

One of the more interesting threads I gleaned from local bloggers when I was trying to figure out this race earlier this week (not that I spent as much time as some of you on it, not by a long shot) was this: local elected officials who aren't running have zero incentive to help Carter in what would have been a difficult race anyway, and every reason to want to see Dollar Bill win, because when he gets expelled, there's an open seat (in a very safe Dem district).

by accommodatingly 2006-12-09 05:16PM | 0 recs
Zero incentive

Other than the incentive of placing your community's interest ahead of your own.

by joejoejoe 2006-12-09 05:31PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Why don't we just not seat him? A al Vern Buchanan?

by meekermariner 2006-12-09 05:20PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

*A la

by meekermariner 2006-12-09 05:21PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

It's a little presumptuous to refuse to seat a congressman just because the FBI is investigating him, even if they say they found $90,000 in his freezer. After all, they haven't indicted him yet.

by jcullen 2006-12-09 06:04PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

The Democratic leadership in Congress had two chances recently to step up and do the right thing, and they failed miserably on both occasions.  The Lamont race in CT, and this NOLA race were opportunities for the Democrats to show some integrity and backbone and help push the good candidate over the top.  Instead they kept their hands clean, and now they will have to suffer the embarrasment of Jefferson getting booted out of his seat for corruption.  Does anyone think that just maybe the Republicans will make hay of this?

Oy.

by global yokel 2006-12-09 05:21PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

The turnout in my precinct (I voted 10 minutes before the polls closed) was 25%.

Pelosi could have done the right thing by accepting Jefferson's compromise (giving his ways and means committee seat to fellow Louisiana Democrat Charlie Melancon), but she punished him, and thus punished Louisiana.  Also, find one word about Katrina or Levees or the Gulf Coast on her "first 100 hours".

by DrAsh 2006-12-09 05:34PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

I can't blame Nancy for not being motivated to negotiate with Jefferson.

Although Melancon and Landrieu should be the "go to" people for New Orleans rebuilding. Melancon because he's much more useful than Jefferson in that sort of role. And Landrieu because it's probably a good idea to give Mary something good to talk about in 2008.

by RBH 2006-12-09 05:40PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

nola.com hasn't updated in a while. it's been at 143 precincts reporting for quite a few minutes.

any thoughts?

just saw an interview on WWL from the Carter HQ. doesn't sound hopeful :(http://www.wwltv.com/sharedcontent/Video Player/videoPlayer.php?vidId=57429&l ive=yes

by areyouonthelist 2006-12-09 05:37PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

The results at http://www.wwltv.com/ seem to be way ahead of nola.com.

by hoose 2006-12-09 05:45PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

damn. WWL is calling it for Jefferson

by areyouonthelist 2006-12-09 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

yeah, she'd have to get something like 12,000 of the remaining 18,000-ish votes to tie.  

strangely reminiscent of ciro and francine....

by hoose 2006-12-09 05:53PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

abc26 called it for jefferson too.

by areyouonthelist 2006-12-09 06:09PM | 0 recs
beating incumbents is hard

well, it reinforces what we already knew, beating incumbents is hard. Doesn't mean you shouldn't do it, just that it often takes several bites at the apple.

by roublen vesseau 2006-12-09 05:43PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

This is really sad.  I cannot believe NO sent a crook back to congress.  what are these people thinking?  why would they vote for a crook and send him back?????

by vwcat 2006-12-09 05:45PM | 0 recs
The Machine and the Republicans won

After all, without LA-02 Republicans voting for Jefferson, and the New Orleans machine getting out the vote for Jefferson, where the hell would Dollar Bill be?

by RBH 2006-12-09 05:46PM | 0 recs
Re: The Machine and the Republicans won

How much of the vote for Jefferson is downtrodden black folks thinking Jefferson is being railroaded by rich white folks? Is that a factor or is it republicans voting for Jefferson?

by adamterando 2006-12-09 05:53PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

What. The. Fuck.

Honestly, I'm at a loss for words.

I thought this was an auto-win election for us, and we were just paying attention to it because there's not really much too important electoral-wise that we can devote our attention to. Something we can cap off November with to make ourselves feel good, tossing the bastards out whichever party they might fall in.

How did this happen? How could anyone in the right mind vote for him? I'd honestly choose the Republican over him if I were voting, but we had a bona fide Democrat! It really disheartens me a great deal and puts a damper on the holidays.

Just... what the fuck...

by Zephyrus 2006-12-09 05:47PM | 0 recs
Results Open Thread

We really need campaign finance reform. What we have at the moment is an incumbency protection racket. Beating an incumbent like Jefferson or Lieberman is hard enough; imagine an ordinary citizen trying to challenge Hilary Clinton.  She has tons of name recognition and $30 million in the bank. To run for her seat in Congress, you would have to either be independently wealthy, or be a whore for the special interests. It would be nearly impossible to raise enough money for a serious campaign against her, and in the unlikely event that a challenger could raise that kind of money, they would have to sell their soul to the corporate devil.

What amazes me is that some people think we ought to be exporting our democracy to places like Iraq, when we don't even have a functional democracy here

by global yokel 2006-12-09 05:53PM | 0 recs
Jefferson Parish

Jefferson got 70% of the vote in Jefferson Parish. The efforts of Sheriff Harry Lee really sank Carter in Jefferson Parish.

With 66% of the votes in...

William Jefferson (I) 23,211  58%

Karen Carter 16,696   42%

by robliberal 2006-12-09 05:56PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Can't tell if I'm more Disappointed or Disgusted.AArrgghh.

by Predictor 2006-12-09 06:08PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

William Jefferson is the new Marion Barry.

by accommodatingly 2006-12-09 06:14PM | 0 recs
Tim Tagaris Did A Great Job Covering LA-2

I want to congratulate Tim Tagaris for the great job he did in covering the LA-2 race on the ground for MyDD.

by robliberal 2006-12-09 06:43PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

Sounds like they cooked the internals polls to me, Tim.

by Adrastos 2006-12-09 06:56PM | 0 recs
Corrupt Guy Won!!!

The Corrupt GUY WON! YAY!

At least that is what they are saying around DC....the DC insiders won and a bunch of internetties lost...they got a disgusting piece of shit re-elected and made true that whole arguement that party don't matter - they'reALL shitheads!

whether they are or not is not important.....seriously someone need s to take this corrupt fucktard into the woodshed, blast his brains out with a shotgun, then say DumbAss made the mistake of cleaning his gun with his brain material!!!!!!!!!

by Schadelmann 2006-12-09 08:40PM | 0 recs
Re: LA-2: Election Results Open Thread

TTagaris did do a great job covering this race. It's utterly wicked that the suburbs voted for Jefferson. This is totally whack. Unreal.

by rikyrah 2006-12-09 08:44PM | 0 recs

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